THE IMMANENT WAR: GREECE AND TURKEY:
FINKENTHAL, CHARLOTTE
The immanent War: Greece and Turkey The recent invasion of Cyprus by Turkey presents a dangerous crisis, not only to the NATO alliance but also to the Mediterranean area. The dilemma facing United...
...He seems to be hoping for Turkish conciliation, but this does not seem likely...
...The State monopolies of cigarettes, tea, spirits and newsprint are perhaps less inhibiting simply because these industries do not require large capital investments and industrialization...
...In a developing country, which has not been ravaged by war for more than 50 years and has enormously fertile land and other natural resources (minerals and port facilities), these conditions are worse than one expects, especially since there is a plentiful labor supply...
...There is, however, always the possibility of an upset in the mismatch, and Greece may surprise everyone by winning...
...But that would come only after great cost to both Turkey and Greece...
...It is no wonder that the United States' foreign policy is stymied in this area...
...A closer look at their economies shows the Turkish posture toward Greece...
...Greece, by way of Cyprus and other islands, becomes the inevitable scapegoat...
...Various experts on the area stress the need for choosing between Turkey and Greece, pointing to one or the other choice as the better...
...On the other hand, if the United States retains Turkey as an ally, Greece most certainly will be lost...
...Congress, are factors pushing Greece and Turkey on their collision course...
...The Department of State's fear of a Turkish-Soviet alliance is so great it paralyzes American action of any kind...
...This can be seen in the way the State controls and discourages investments...
...Turkey's excellent port facilities are under-used, with a merchant fleet of only 714,000 gross tons in 1971...
...What is surprising is the obvious helplessness of even Henry Kissinger...
...For example, what are the internal conditions within Turkey...
...Thus, Greece with her puny population of 9 million and limited military manpower and weaponry must face a grim future...
...The lack of qualified inspectors has resulted in widespread evasion of taxes by those whose earnings warrant taxation...
...Industrialization is not proceeding well enough to prevent large imports of essentials, and this throws the economy off badly...
...This, in turn, produces heavier indirect taxation in the form, of sales and excise taxes, which negatively affect the common man's purchasing power...
...As the political and diplomatic experts see it, the United States withdrawal of military aid to Turkey, which the American Congress favored and President Ford opposed, will probably mean that Turkey will turn to the Soviet Union or China for support...
...Shocking Facts of Life The economic and social facts of life within Turkey are shocking in the extreme, even by Greek standards...
...The Greeks, having recognized the signposts, are reacting with appropriate aggressiveness and are buying enormous quantities of weapons and planes in preparation for that inevitable day which must come...
...Turkey's balance of payments problems led in the later 1960s to a devaluation of the lira and to the adoption of austerity measures in August 1970...
...Why does Turkey have a GNP of only 8 billion dollars a year...
...urned from Greece...
...And although Turkey has the best developed road and rail network in the Middle East, the general lack of industry has not purposefully tapped it...
...Cyprus was rich enough to have enjoyed a higher standard of living than Greece...
...How can anyone win without another one or two losing...
...And after those, who knows what else...
...The dilemma facing United States' foreign policy is this: How can the United States retain friendly connections with both Greece and Turkey...
...By 1967, only 3 percent of the population used the available hydroelectric power, while most people used wood, dried dung, hard coal and lignite...
...The horror stories of the more than 30,000 Cyprus refugees who have arrived in Greece, plus the recent cut-off in military aid to Turkey by the U.S...
...Instead, American foreign policy is being handled in the pragmatic manner so characteristic of this nation...
...This situation exists together with a critical medical doctor shortage (2000 to 1...
...The main causes, are the following: 1) the landowning and monied classes are still dominant (by the 1970 census, a mere 491 families owned in excess of 1200 acres each) and work for self-interest, and 2) a socialistic substructure operates in a regressive manner...
...What accounts for the disappointment in the progress of the Turkish economy is the post-Ataturk structure that lingers mainly as a hindrance in the form of ideological baggage...
...Because of the continuing crisis in Cyprus, the situation is now so deteriorated it will be impossible for Greece and Turkey to avert war...
...The per capita income is $300 a year, while the inflation rate is 25 percent...
...The shantytowns (gecekondu) on the outskirts of Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir are homes for many of the populations of those cities...
...Therefore, situations are viewed not as matters of principle but as matters of practical expediency...
...This could result in the creation of a solid new bloc, consisting of Syria, Turkey and the USSR...
...Internal political pressures have discouraged domestic and foreign investments of capital...
...Perhaps Crete and more...
...preventive medical programs are so lacking that tuberculosis and trachoma are ' endemic...
...These two major factors have retarded Turkey's progress and have made necessary the cultivation and sale of the poppy as a much-needed source of export income...
...This realistic presence has led to an obvious supra-nationalism in foreign policy, the likely target being an external enemy, namely Greece...
...This is a three-way stalemate among Turkey, Greece and the United States...
...Such a bloc would also mean the serious loss to the United States of a strategic seaway, since the Dardanelles is the bridge between Europe and Asia...
...State control has, however, inhibited one essential industry-mineral deposit excavation, refinement and use or export...
...For example, the State banks (Central Bank, Agricultural Bank and others) control proposed projects and investments...
...Why are they now claiming not only a disproportionate share of Cyprus but several other islands with Greek majorities on them, most notably Thasos, Chios and Rhodes...
...Thus, crises are handled on day-to-day or hour-to-hour basis, much as a business concern operates...
...About a half-million Turks have emigrated to unskilled jobs in European factories...
...Greece has already taken steps away from the United States-withdrawing her troops from Greece's NATO bases, for example, and forming new European alliances which will prompt Greek economic independence and full participation in the European community...
...What is apparent now is that Turkey has embarked on an expansionist foreign policy, although this fact may not be evident to other nations...
...CHARLOTTE FINKENTHAL (Charlotte Finkenthal, a member of the faculty of Baruch College, The City University of New York, recently returned from Greece...
...The swollen Turkish army would have a use, and the riches gained by conquest of lucrative islands would postpone the Turkish economic collapse...
...More than 70 percent of Turkey's 38 million people live in rural areas and in great poverty...
...The Americans would prefer to keep the old allies intact, but the profound philosophy necessary for coping with this problem is not in evidence...
...Both economies are badly in need of development and peace, although the Greek economy is in much better condition...
...What is more, the Greeks are well aware of this confrontation and are preparing for it by purchasing weaponry...
...For a serious appraisal of this situation, one is compelled to investigate the causes of Turkey's decision to retain what it has taken by conquest...
...The Turkish economy is in a shambles...
...The real tragedy of this coming war is that neither opponent can profit from it...
...With a literacy rate of 55 percent in a country where 66 percent of the population are under age 30, prospects for other than agrarian jobs are nil...
...Not the least in importance is the growing fear by Turkey's military caste-the real decision-makers- which feds itself threatened by a closing circle that manifests itself in a growing majority movement of have-nots...
...This particular crisis could mean a whole set of new alignments and the end of NATO...
Vol. 102 • April 1975 • No. 3
