The Public Policy

...The temper of our times culls up so many' crises that it is difficult to say just which of our problems is most critical today...

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...Nevertheless, if the crisis of the sixties was the unbearable condition of our cities, and the crisis of the eighties will be Russian military domination, surely a prime candidate for the crisis of the seventies is what has characteristically come to be known as the energy crisis...

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...It would not be impossible for an authoritarian society, but that is precisely the point: a coherent energy policy must be undemocratic, for it is only by straitjacketing divergent points of view that a uniform policy could be maintained...

...But a crisis, by definition, cannot last forever and, besides, we have been afflicted by new woes and threats...

...There is the danger, however, that those who use the rhetoric of urgency may actually be pulling some fast ones on us...

...that the exploitation of more plentiful energy sources—coal, nuclear reactors, and foreign oil reserves—will not only become much more costly but wilt pose dangerous threats to the environment, to health, and to the balance of payments...

...Although the severe shortages will not arise until the future, the crisis is said to be immediate, because now is the proper time, and perhaps the last opportunity, to make the necessary plans to avert them...

...Very well, reply the authors of No Time to Confuse, there may be some advantages to consistent and concerted energy policy...

...To this, the authors of No Time to Confuse reply that technical efficiency does not necessarily mean social efficiency...

...Some choice is better than none...

...This is so, they say, because we could use energy more efficiently (e.g., better gasoline mileage, better insulation) with little economic cost...

...4.) The authors of A Time to Choose recognize that as energy prices increase, demand for energy decreases...

...and in 1974 major studies sponsored by the President's Council on Environmental Quality, by the Ford Foundation, and by the Committee for Economic Development all called for government action to reduce that growth rate—to 1.4% , 2% , and 2.9% respectively...

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...The Ford Project itself commissioned a major study of the oil industry and was surprised to find that it was indeed competitive and price-responsive...

...So we would be wise, before we rush headlong into government policies designed to set a lower rate of energy growth, to understand a little better just what we are getting into...

...Until the embargo, American energy consumption had been growing at a rate of 3.4% a year since 1950 (4.5% since 1965...

...For example, they doubt that "major savings from improved mileage for automobiles can be achieved on the most rapid timetable without supplementing market forces with specific performance requirements or tax incentives...

...I say change in consciousness, because life in our cities has not substantially improved these last few years...

...2.) The authors of A Time to Choose argue that we can cut back our pace of energy consumption and still maintain our rate of economic growth...

...3.) A Time to Choose calls for the establishment of an Energy Policy Council in the Executive Branch to make sure that "each sector of the economy [achieves] the lowest possible energy requirements subject to economic efficiency...

...Defense and safety consideration require extensive government regulation of nuclear energy production...

...according to the authors of No Time to Confuse, similar conclusions would probably be reached from a study of the auto industry...

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...Our present decisions are made by a variety of private industries and of uncoordinated government bodies—the Department of the Interior, different Congressional committees, different regulatory agencies—and as a result the decisions are often inconsistent and drifting...

...But, as William H. Riker points out in his splendid essay "The Ideology of A Time to Choose," there is a very good reason why our policies are inconsistent: our goals and values are inconsistent...

...Government therefore has a necessary role in energy decisions, but as No Time to Confuse instructs us, there are those among us who would use the rhetoric of crisis to expand government power in ways that are authoritarian, inefficient, and unnecessary...

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...of the UCLA economics department, is a collection of ten essays by economists, political scientists, and engineers, each criticizing aspects of A Time to Choose, the major report issued last year by the Ford Foundation Energy Policy Project...

...If the record of similar government agencies is any indication, reply the authors of No Time to Confuse, such a Council is likely to forget those words "subject to economic efficiency," and the achievement of energy efficiency will lead to worse inefficiency elsewhere...

...For example it may be most efficient, technically, tt drive at 55 m.p.h., but some peoph value speed more than mileage effi ciency...

...Now our long-term energy prospects may well be grim, and the need to prepare for them by conservationist efforts may well be urgent...

...government will therefore haveto establish stockpiles or other forms of emergency protection...

...Just recently, the auto industries announced that their 1977 cars would return to the weight of the 1950s, clearly a fuel economy measure...

...If consumers and manufacturers are already being induced by rising prices to use fuel more efficiently, then the kinds of regulaJob Opportunity The Alternative is searching for a new executive secretary...

...This becomes an argument for extensive meddling in the economy...

...they would rather drive at 7( m.p.h...

...it the words of Arnold B. Moore, "twc equal national incomes will not be equall) preferred by consumers...

...The Institute for Contemporary Studies (San Francisco) has just published an instructive little book to help us in this understanding, by offering some timely caveats about the energy crisismongers...

...Finally, over half America's onshore and offshore energy resources are on government properties, and government must decide at what rate to lease those properties for exploitation...

...Let us be on our guard, and let us bear in mind that in a few years the New York Times might very well announce the passing away of yet another crisis...

...Many policy proposals have focused on developing new sources of supply—the answer lies with coal or breeder reactors or solar energy, varying according to one's perspecFlummoxing the Fuel Question tive and one's pocketbook...

...Market prices do not reflect the environmental and health costs of energy production, and although social costs can be included in the costs of production by taxation, government must determine when and how much to tax for social costs...

...Crisis requires resolute policy, and a number of scientists, foundations, businesses, and government agencies have been quick to come forth with their suggestions for urgent action...

...but they nevertheless have little faith in the market to further their conservationist purposes...

...As George Hilton explains, the world is full of shortages and "energy simply isn't the only thing worth economizing...

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...As the journal Science has written, "Achieving a targeted rate of energy growth...implies involvement in economic planning and management well beyond what Western governments are used to...

...But recently, attention has been addressed to the idea of forestalling shortages by reducing consumption, or at least its growth...

...Box 877, Bloomington, Indiana 47401.tions the crisismongers have in mind will be not only coercive but also unnecessary, and will conserve more energy than is desirable...

...and therefore, that acceptable sources of energy will not be able to supply us with enough fuel to meet our needs at the rate they are growing...

...Storm winddows may reduce fuel bills, but they also use up valuable aluminum...

...ciently, and to legislate technical efficiency is to unduly restrict consumer choices...

...Thus, Thomas G. Moore cites several recent econometric studies showing that gasoline consumption decreases about 7% with a 10% price increase...

...A people struggling to survive the ravages of unemployment, sex discrimination, and massive police surveillance cannot be bothered by such trifles as the crisis in our cities...

...Instead, it is suggested that some of our most important energy resources, particularly domestic oil and natural gas reserves (excluding shale), could run out by the end of the century...

...Enclosed is $ for a new renewal subscription to The Alternative at the present low rates: ^ One year $6 ^ Two years $11 El Three years $15 Name (Please print) Address City State Zip The Alternative: An American Spectator June/ July 1975 23...

...No Time to Confuse, organized by J. Clayburn LaForce, Jr...

...While the Ford Foundation report has some virtues as well as pitfalls, and while some of the critical essays suffer from rhetorical excesses of their own, No Time to Confuse nevertheless deals up valuable reproaches to much of the conventional wisdom which the Ford Foundation report typifies...

...In response, the authors of No Time to Confuse say this is an empirical question, and so far evidence supports the market as an effective mechanism for conserving scarce resources...

...The dimensions of the problem go beyond last year's Arab oil embargo, with its attendant shortages, and the possibilities of its being repeated...

...The Public Policy by Adam Meyerson A recent headline in the Sunday New York Times announced that the urban crisis is over, thus giving official recognition to a change in consciousness that had previously gone unnoticed...

...We want cheap and plentiful energy, national self-sufficiency, and a clean environment—all legitimate but incompatible desires—and since different groups have different preferences with different intensities at different times, it would be impossible for a democratic society to arrive at a coherent, long-term policy...

...A Time to Choose is itself exercising uncalled-for influence in Congress—much of the energy legislation now emerging from the House Ways and Means Committee comes straight from its pages, and project director S. David Freeman is a major consultant for Congressional energy committees—but without going into the specifics of the Ford report, let us see what admonishments supplied by No Time to Confuse can applymore generally to discussions of energy ind of the calls for resolute action...

...indeed in some respects, for instance municipal finance, it may be fairly described as having deteriorated...

...And therefore, they advocate regulations and tax incentives for more efficient energy use...

...As the members of the Ford Foundation Project correctly point out, there are a number of energy decisions which cannot be left to the marketplace...

...You still have time to take advantage of the present low price and save, especially by subscribing or renewing for the long term...

...at some point, therefore, it is inefficient to put up storm windows even if they do save some energy...

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...and pay the extra fuel expenses Technical efficiency does not always sat isfy consumer preferences most effi 22 The Alternative: An American Spectator June/ July 197...

...But in the urgency of an energy crisis, according to A Time to Choose, "drift is surely the worst of the alternatives before us...

...The market will not keep fuel reserves necessary for defense in the case of foreign embargoes...

...1.) Like many current commentators, the Ford Foundation report calls for a coherent, centralized energy policy...