A Campaign Reform for Yesteryear
Plattner, Marc F.
"A Campaign Reform for Yesteryear" Richard Nixon's announcement of his impending resignation was not the only event that made August 8,1974, a crucial date in the history of the American Presidency. On that same day, the House of...
...The 1976 election probably represents the last shot at the Presidency for both of them, so they personally would not be able to cash in on the benefits the new law might provide a rightist party candidate in 1980...
...Moreover, by eliminating the role of large contributors and by matching contributions of up to $250 with public funds,the new law puts a premium on the medium-sized contributor...
...To see why this is likely to be so, it is only necessary to think a bit about some of the key provisions of the new law...
...Republicans, 24 percent...
...It is true that this aspect of the new law does not help—and may even hurt—new third-party movements, which will still have to raise all their campaign funds from private sources...
...Those parts of the new law dealing with Presidential primaries may tend to weaken our two major parties in another way—by encouraging their internal polarization along ideological lines...
...It is hard to say how much the prospect of laying the foundations of a right-wing party might tempt Reagan or Wallace...
...Thus if the law had been operative in 1972, John Schmitz, as the candidate of the American Independent Party, would have received about $6 million in public funds (since George Wallace's 1968 vote total of just under 10 million was almost one third of the average total of about 31.5 million amassed by the two major-party candidates...
...This outcome would yield the following amounts .of public funds for 1980: Democrats, $20 million...
...On that same day, the House of Representatives, after long uncertainty and delay, approved legislation providing for the public financing of all future Presidential elections...
...Nixon had made perfectly clear his own strong opposition to such a measure, and until his departure, the threat of a Presidential veto could not be discounted...
...In other words, fund-raising efforts will concentrate on the class most receptive to ideological appeals, and will rely upon a method that is most easily organized upon an ideological basis...
...It seems obvious, even now, that this is essentially a backward-looking piece of legislation, i.e., an effort to correct some of the abuses of the 1972 campaign...
...But the prospect of future public funding—once they have made a single creditable showing—is likely to supply a strong incentive for new third-party efforts...
...Reagan-Wallace, 26 percent...
...They may, however, benefit from another provision of the new law which grants a post-election reimbursement to new parties if they gain more than 5 percent of the vote...
...Yet many of their aides and potential supporters presumably would be strengthened in their third-party inclinations, and this might help persuade Reagan and/or Wallace to go the third-party route in 1976...
...This will inevitably tend to heighten the attachment of many politically involved citizens to particular intraparty factions—at the expense of their attachment to the party as a whole...
...But if the party's candidate in the preceding election received between 5 and 25 percent, it is defined as a minor party...
...This, of course, would severely cripple the Republican Party—but it would not be a deathblow...
...for the Democratic and Republican Parties do not enjoy an Constitutional status, and the law cannot blatantly discriminate against other parties...
...Well, Eugene McCarthy has been talking of starting up a new third-party movement on the Left,and, especially if the Democrats nominate a centrist in 1976, it is possible that such a party could obtain 5 percent of the vote...
...What effects is this incentive likely to produce in 1976 and 1980...
...Then, of course, there is a real possibility of a third-party candidacy on the Right in 1976—from George Wallace, Ronald Reagan, or perhaps even a joint Reagan-Wallace ticket...
...The effect of the new law will be to concentrate all fund-raising efforts on the search for contributions to primary campaigns...
...The most important source of funds will be the uppermiddle class, and the key means of tapping this source will be the direct-mail campaign...
...The apparent intent of the legislation is to reduce the amounts spent in Presidential elections and to minimize the influence of large contributors on the campaign process...
...Indeed, it is not wholly inconceivable that a Reagan-Wallace ticket might, given a certain combination of political and economic circumstances, finish second in 1976...
...In this kind of situation, the new law would encourage not realignment into a new two-party configuration, but the perpetuation of a three-party configuration...
...This is simple enough, but matters could not be left atthat...
...Those who wish to make donations directly to major-party Presidential aspirants will have to confine their giving to the prenomination stage...
...The hew campaign financing law will change the face of American politics...
...The Senate had already passed similar legislation in April...
...And since a third-party Reagan or Wallace candidacy could easily win 10 or 15 percent of the vote, it could, under the new law, establish a strong financial base for a right-wing party in 1980 and beyond...
...The need for private fund-raising at the pre-nomination stage will remain as crucial as ever, but it will be carried on under vastly altered conditions...
...Once again, the effect will be to increase polarization within the parties...
...His successor was also reportedly opposed to public financing but the prospect of a Ford veto never seemed very credible...
...especially after the Nixon pardon, the political costs of sucha move would have been too great...
...It is always risky to speculate about the various consequences of any new piece of legislation, and the 1974 campaign law offers no exception to this rule...
...But time, alas, runs forward, not backward...
...So the following scheme was devised: If a party's Presidential candidate received more than 25 percent of the popular vote in the preceding elections, it qualifies as a major party and its nominee receives full public funding...
...But with the new law, such a showing in 1976 would guarantee the leftist party's 1980 nominee over $2 million in public funds, and thus almost certainly assure its continued existence...
...These goals will probably be attained, but it is likely that the new set of regulaions will also produce a number of other important consequences largely unforeseen—or, at any rate, unheeded—by its supporters...
...On October 15 President Ford signed the bill...
...For the assurance of even $13 million in public funds for 1980 would constitute a powerful incentive against the wholesale abandonment or dissolution of the party...
...Let us assume the following hypothetical vote totals for 1976: Democrats, 50 percent...
...Perhaps the most important of these unintended results will be a further weakening of our already ailing political parties...
...rightists (having now qualified as a "major party"), $20 million...
...First, it puts a $20 million limit (in 1972, Nixon spent $56 million and McGovern about $35 million) on each Presidential candidate's general election expenditures, and awards a sum of this amount from the public treasury to each major-party nominee...
...The 1974 law limits individual donations to $1,000 and organizational contributions to $5,000, but provides public funds to match private contributions of up to $250...
...There can no longer be "regular contributors" to Democratic or Republican Presidential candidates...
...In this case, its nominee is awarded public funds in an amount "which bears the same ratio to the amount...for a major party [i.e., $20 million] as the number of popular votes received by the candidate for President of the minor party...in the preceding Presidential election bears to the average number of popular votes received by the candidates for President of the major parties in the preceding Presidential election...
...Republicans (having fallen below 25 percent and now treated according to the formula for a "minor party"), $13 million...
...But its impact is likely to be so far-reaching that one only wishes that the proponents of this law had speculated somewhat more thoughtfully and energetically than they did...
...Without the new campaign law, a 5 percent showing would not be terribly encouraging, and the new party might well fade away before 1980...
...Total spending of primary candidates is limited to $10 million, and there are also ceilings on spending in any particular state...
...In order toqualify for these matching funds, a candidate must first raise $5,000 in contributions of $250 or less in each of twenty states...
...The combination of the House vote and the Nixon resignation made it all but certain that public financing would become law...
Vol. 8 • April 1975 • No. 7
