Jr. on Military Trends: Implications for U S. Security and Soviet Military Power
Schneider, William
20 The A l t e r n a t i v e November, 1971 JACKSON (continued from page 18) as they did not add to their offensive potential. (4) Neither side would deploy a population defending ABM. Such a...
...Kitner and Pfaltzgraff, both of the Foreign Policy Research Institute of the University of Pennsylvania have set forth in compact fashion, the dimensions of Soviet military growth...
...Human experience, both past and present, is seen as unreal...
...Marx combined the advantages of both in an attempt to eliminate their deficiencies...
...It would diminish the pressure that we are now under to press ahead with new offensive nuclear systems of our own...
...Such a critique goes a lot deeper than a mere complaint about particular wrongs in society...
...Professor John Erickson has produced a scholarly work of the first rank that proves to be a useful complement to the Kintner-Pfaltzgraff study...
...Salvation is God's work, not man's...
...When one digests the disparate information concerning the vast scope of the Soviet military buildup, it is clear that the whole of the separate .elements is greater than the sum of its parts...
...A polarity between nothingness and paradise is charac~ristic of every ideological total critique of society, which always extends to a critique of all experienced reality...
...attempt to capture the strategic advantage would only be matched by a Soviet build-up to achieve "parity," Soviet military thinking follows a much different line of reasoning...
...The particular seductiveness of this critique is the pretension of positive knowledge of the future...
...The second total critique of society (teleological) that found its way into Marx's thought sees history as a concatonation of stages toward an ultimate end...
...Contrary to the yearly reiterated theory that Secretary McNamara advanced in his annual defense Posture Statement':' to the effect that every U.S...
...I would hope, therefore, that such a proposal would be vigorously pressed at the SALT talks...
...The Soviets have tended to concentrate their efforts in a few wellknown areas to the U.S...
...Erickson suggests in effect, that the model which best describes Soviet military behavior is that they do "'the best they can...
...The teleological critique claims to reduce man to an objectively known product of the meaningless flux of things...
...American Enterprise Institute, $3.00 Soviet Military Power by John Eriekson Royal United Service Institute, $3.09 Since the unmistakable details of the broad-based Soviet military buildup since 1968 emerged, there has been an increasing number of books, monographs, and articles by~prolessional and academic defense specialists examining the character of Soviet efforts...
...Sometimes it is admitted that communism is not as peaceloving as we would like, but that being patient and willing to prove our good intentions, the suspicious masters in the Kremlin, Peiping, and elsewhere will see that they too can afford to relax tensions and reduce their arms budgets...
...In the past few years, the Soviet economy has become sufficiently large to support a defense establishment roughly equal in size to our own...
...About one percent of the goods and services we will produce this year is allocated to the procurement, maintenance and operation of our strategic deterrent...
...Filliam Schneider, Jr...
...When one attempts to make some sort of aggregated calculation however, as to how the United States might fare in a military confrontation in an area of mutual vital interest, it is an extremely difficult task to formulate a theory of how the United States can support its foreign policy objectives by military force in such-a crisis...
...What a far cry from Augustine's total critique of society which was based on the Biblical doctrine of the corruption of the human soul...
...Evil is seen as man's problem here and now to he faced rather than hidden by resort to the use of a future possible reality...
...The axiological critique tends to overlook any consideration of the historical and to see man only in terms of a "true" nature, of sheer desirability in a "possible reality...
...I believe that this country is rich enough in moral and material resources to provide for the security of our people and resolve our domestic problems as well...
...With the exception of a few categories of military strength, there is an unambiguous Soviet quantitative advantage over the United States...
...In Between Nothingness and Parad/se Niemeyer finds that Marx welded two previously developed total critiques of society...
...In spite of the obvious importance of having such knowledge, we really know very little about Soviet strategic doctrine...
...The author's assessment of Soviet capabilities and behavior lead them to the grim conclusion that: "The Soviet Union has begun to follow the strategy of opportunity increasingly, particularly in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean areas...
...influence short of" means likely to lead to confrontation...
...Military Trends:Implications for U.S...
...Although there is no logical reason for doing so, this critique posits the final "goal" stage as the only time when man will live in a true reality...
...There are, of course, ongoing debates within the defense community as to where the net qualitative advantage for this or that weapon system lies...
...To grasp the nature of communism, one of course usually begins with Marx...
...disadvantage-strategic nuclear forces and naval forces...
...By making known his secret knowledge, the thinker will cause the present unreality to collapse, releasing the redemption available only through participating in the true reality...
...The ideologist of h second reality (the true one as opposed to the unreal) has committed himself by definition to a destruction of the present reality...
...William Schneider, Jr...
...It seems to me that the risks involved in proposing such an interim agreement for an initial period of one year are minimal...
...What is now needed is a thorough analysis of Soviet bargaining strategy dealing with arms control negotiations so that we may be better prepared to understand the manner in which the Soviets are conducting themselves at the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks...
...Moreover, it should calm any possible Soviet concern that we might be increasing the offensive potential of our forces so as to threaten the security of their deterrent...
...Sometimes this latter line of reasoning is applied retroactively to support the conclusion that if the United States had not built up so many alliances all over the world, Stalin's suspicions would never have been aroused...
...The A l t e r n a t i v e November, 1971 21 recent developments in Soviet defense policy...
...From the belief that we have been doing too little to solve our domestic problems - - a view that I share with many in this country - - it is all too easy to pass to a belief that what we spend on defense is wasted...
...It would genuinely add to the security of both countries...
...and that the Soviet buildup has far exceeded the requirements of any plausible defense objective that had heretofore been attributed to the Soviets...
...That one percent is an essential investment...
...The work of Erickson and KintnerPfaltzgraff significantly improve ore" understanding of the importance of "And reported in such works as A. Chayes and J. Weisner, ABM: An Evalue.t~n el the Der to Deploy an Anti Ballistic Missle System, (New York, Harper and Row, 1969...
...At the same time we could continue to deploy the very much mvialler warheads of the MIRVed Poseidon missile on our Polaris submarines so as to increase the effectiveness of our sea-based deterrent...
...The last chapter of the Cold War is supposed to have been written because communism has been perceived to have lost its militant urge to conquer the world...
...Since that time, the conclusions of virtually every competent defense analyst has been that the Soviet obsession with defense is singular...
...Enough said...
...Deceitful Peace: A New Lookat the Soviet Threat by Gerhart Niemeyer Arlington House, $8.95 Between Nothingness and Paradise by Gerhart Niemeyer Louisiana State University Press, $8.95 The Cold War seems to have passed into the hands of the historian...
...The 'strategy of caution" implies that the Soviets would attempt to replace U.S...
...There is a gnostic aspect of this critique - - a secret knowledge is said to be available to the thinker-as-messenger...
...By permitting us to deploy defenses to protect our Minuteman silos we would be able to counter any likely qualitative upgrading of the current Soviet offensive forces...
...East European Landscape...
...The Archimedian point, in turn, a realm of phantasmal perfection, appears as paradise ~vhen viewed from the point of view nf ~ctua] nothingness...
...Their best effort in 1971 is considerably more formidable...
...In either case, the total critiques: "have assumed an Archimedian point beyond the realm of experience from which the world of experience can be surveye<i, criticized and even declared a nothingness...
...Security by William R. Kintuer and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr...
...The total critique of society is in turn used as a call for total, or permanent, revolution...
...My own view is that we will not emerge from the SALT talks with a very comprehensive agreement unless we and the Soviets succeed in arriving at some common understanding as to the nature and objectives of slrategic nuclear forces...
...While that latter study hypothesizes trends in and the implications of Soviet military buildup, Erickson examines the Soviet buildup to deduce the character of Soviet strategy with regard to the evidence we have about Soviet force deployments and strategic doctrine...
...The United States is then seen to be the cause of the Cold War since we supposedly overreacted to a system which wns not actually our enemy...
...Rather than a simple reformism, this critique calls for salvation t~rough the liberating experience of smashing everything...
...This critique can only accidentally provide a picture of the inevitable Goal...
...might seek to employ stemming from its nuclear arsenal...
...Kintner and Pfaltzgraff make a useful contribution to the analysis of the Soviet military buildup by suggesting three alternative hypotheses of Soviet intent: strategies of "'opportunity," _9 'caution," and "condominium...
...is on the staff of the Hudson Institute and an advisor to Senator James Buckley, the pride of Old New York...
...We do not have the time...
...Other than a sort of magical leap in being to the true order, this critique is otherwise short on prescriptions for action...
...Morevoer, the discussion surrounding this proposal may help to illuminate the nature of Soviet strategic objectives...
...The strategic budget is a small fraction of the defense budget and an even smaller fraction of our gross national product...
...Only the "strategy of condominium" would be likely to lead to reduced tensions and a lower probability of political or military confrontation...
...The studies often produced ambiguous conclusions because the public data could be interpreted in several ways as late as 1969...
...One final word: The United States is experiencing a wave of hostility to the military at the moment, a hostility that makes fair and objective discussion of defense issues a difficult thing to achieve...
...The politician and political scientist are now concerned with detente, relaxation of tensions, disarmament, and in general, reordering ou~ national priorities from a foreign war that is over to a domestic war on social problems...
...Their best effort in 1950 consisted of a massive conventional force to threaten Europe, while relying on political warfare to attenuate any political advantages which the U.S...
...The advantage of halting the deployment of Soviet offensive weapons would be real, immediate, and stabilizing...
...Two recent studies - - without question, among the best yet available - - specify the trends in Soviet military power, and assess its implications...
...For a decade or so we were illinformed by various officials in the national security apparatus who allowed their-beliefs to refract their judgments about Soviet strategic force deployments...
...History once again is seen as alienation...
...Niemeyer places Marx in the camp of those who, because they are motivated by a profound aliermtion from the world, fashion a total critique of society...
...And we could do this without in any way adding to our capacity to strike the Soviet deterrent...
...Such a program would greatly increase the security of our strategic forces...
...Whether ~,be argued that communisl has changed, or that the United States is finally taking the appropriate measures to allow Communists to get along with other nations, the argument stands or falls on both the historical record and on the nature of communism...
...If the Soviets were to employ this strategy, they would seek local rather than global objectives, and would prefer a partner relationship with the United States rather than an adversary relationship...
...The Communists' ideology is supposed to be a mere cover for power --and that's the'way we are too, right...
...By preventing the deployment of ABM systems for the purpose of defending populated areas - - thick city defenses - - we would diminish the necessity for deploying MIRVs on our Minuteman force...
...Gerhart Niemeyer, Professor of government at Notre Dame has provided a needed analysis of these questions in his two latest books...
...Although the strategy of caution is currently being employed in Europe, the Far East, and Latin America, we can anticipate trends toward opportunity in these regions also...
...Although we have posited condominium as a logical alternative to Soviet expansionism, it is unlikely that the Soviets are committed to this choice other than as a transitory tactic...
...Augustine's view permits a choice outside of the phony dichotomy of a complete acceptance of the status quo or its total destruction...
...To fail in the job of strategic defense is to fail in all our aspirations for better housing, health, welfare, education and the environment...
...We cannot allow a similar process to decide our attitudes on Soviet arms control...
...Sin~e all value is seen to lie in the future, knowledge of that places one beyond the limits of present moral judgments or historical imitations...
...The one critique (axiological) sees all of history as alien to the true order of reality and human nature...
...Society, in the Augustinian view, is not seen as the enemy, since it is but a product of the flawed constituent...
Vol. 5 • November 1971 • No. 2
