THE CAMPAIGN SPECTATOR: Looking Out for Number Two
Hyman, Mark
HE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION is still one year away andtheDemocratandRepublicanpartieshaveyetto picktheirnominees.HowardDeanledtheDemocrat fieldoneyearbeforethe2004electionandsixmonths later...
...Huckabee could add to a GOP ticket in the eyes of social conservatives, but he could also win the 2008 Senate race in Arkansas if he were to run, noted Norquist...
...Republicans] need to change pretty dramatically" if they are to win next November, Gingrich told NationalJournal.Coen agrees with Gingrich...
...Evan Bayh of Indiana...
...Mark Hyman is host of "The Point With Mark Hyman" for the Sinclair Broadcast Group...
...The nominee on the GOP side is murkier, with the pick coming downtoRudyGiuliani,FredThompson,orMittRomney...
...Regardless of whom the GOP nominee picks, the Republican candidate is likely to lose the 2008 election, according to Newt Gingrich...
...But they'll do well if they run a populist campaign...
...Arizona Gov...
...This time last year, Sen...
...Shehasagreatrecordandwoulddowellin the Southwest, but Clinton won't pick another woman," he said...
...What's the daily double on that one...
...Hillarydoesn'twantthatkindofstarpowerinher orbit," he observed...
...You get that image going," he commented, noting Bayh's youth and good looks nicely complement Obama'spublicimage.BorosageofferedPennsylvania Gov.EdRendellasabetterchoiceforObama,remarking,"Itwouldbeaverydynamicticket...
...He added, "VPs don't sway a state, but a VP can add to the aura of the candidate...
...Conventional wisdom suggests a party's nominee must look toward geographic balance in order to improve his chances of being elected...
...He would be a great candidate based on his resume, but could Giuliani or Romney control him...
...Janet Napolitano would be an attractive choice for the number two on the Democrat ticket--unless Hillary is the nominee, suggested Borosage...
...Neither Bayh nor Kaine is seen as delivering their states "unless it'sablowout,"accordingtoMcIntyre...
...A few presidential candidates from recent elections in both parties declined to discuss the topic of vice-presidential running mates...
...He offered Iowa's Tom Vilsack and Ohio's Strickland as the obvious choices...
...He added, "[Sam] Brownback might be the right choice for him although I am surprised that the Republicans are still going for a guy who wore a dress 300 times [Giuliani], so what do I know...
...Borosage believes Clinton is the likely Democrat nominee and will need to pick a governor to compensate for her lack of chief executive experience...
...John Nance Garner, vice president under Franklin D. Roosevelt, reportedly once remarked that the job wasn't worth "a warm bucket of spit...
...TheelectoralmapisprettyossifiedandIthinkthe obvious [Democrat] choice is to pick [Gov...
...Vilsack is the better campaignerand[public]speaker,butheisnotverywellknown...
...Yet picking a presidential running mate has taken on greater importance in recent years...
...He believes a candidate moving a light blueorlightredstateintheotherdirectionisunlikely...
...Coen was more direct in his assessment of McCain...
...McCain would be a bad choice...
...He suggested Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, who was re-elected to the Senate in 2006 as a potential VP candidate...
...That pick[ofGore]reallytransformedpolitics...
...Dan Coen, who runs the website VicePresidents.com, touts himself as "the expert on the Vice Presidency...
...However, some of the observers The American Spectator spoke to thought that the vice-presidential pick would begin with a look at the 2004 electoral map...
...Even with that recent history, most observers agree that Hillary Clinton is the likeliest Democrat candidate, with the race now hers to lose...
...Nearly smack dabinthemiddleisOhio,astatethatprovedpivotalto the re-election of George W. Bush...
...Coen noted that John Ed-wardscouldnotcarryNorthCarolinaforJohnKerryin 2004...
...One pundit disagreed, stating Alexander is generally considered a moderate and that as a Tennessean he's "not really from the South...
...John McCain was the presumed Republican frontrunnerandbysummer'sendhewasmakingjokesabout hiscandidacyonlatenighttelevision...
...McIntyre noted that Clinton could pickRichardsoninordertolock-upNewMexicoand the Hispanic vote, but he believes neither Tommy Thompson nor Huckabee would deliver any electoral value to the Republican nominee...
...THEPROBLEMWITHANELECTORALVOTEstrategy for the Republican candidate is that few see any prominent vice presidential picks as being abletodeliverakeybluestatetotheGOP.NonecouldforeseeRepublicanGov.TimPawlentycarryingMinnesotaor aPennsylvaniaRepublicanmovingthatstatetotheGOP...
...Hewasa cabinet secretary, senator, governor, and he ran for presidenttwice.Hehastremendousexperience.He'd be a great choice for Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani...
...M A R KH Y M A N Amongthepoliticiansmostoften suggestedaspotentialDemocratrunning matesareBayh,VirginiaGov.TimKaine, andformerVirginiaGov.MarkWarner...
...The former House speaker, who toyed with the idea of jumping into the race, placed the odds at 80-20 in favor of the Democrats...
...He suggested that Fred Thompson "may fill that need" with those voters, but both Romney and Giuliani will have to find a running mate who can bring those voters to the polls...
...Barack Obama gets the nod, Coen believes he might look closely at Sen...
...McIntyre also believes Clinton will get the Democrat nod and he, like everyone else who commented onthetopic,doesnotenvisionaClinton-Obamaticket...
...Giuliani has a morals problem and he'll need to pick a Midwesterner to overcome that," offered Borosage...
...HE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION is still one year away andtheDemocratandRepublicanpartieshaveyetto picktheirnominees.HowardDeanledtheDemocrat fieldoneyearbeforethe2004electionandsixmonths later his campaign was over...
...Neither party should pull a candidate who could rightfullywinaHouseorSenateseatorgovernorship" inordertopickarunningmate,warnedNorquist...
...A couple of them still have a few campaign miles left to go, suggesting they may be interested in the number two spot if offered...
...The likelihood of the GOP candidate picking John McCain as number two was deemed virtually nonexistent in light of his poor support among the party's conservative voters...
...Activists, political pundits, and campaign veteransareneverthelesswillingtonamepotentialrunning matesfortheparty'snominees...
...He thinks a presidential candidate will look for someone who "extends the [nominee's] brand, the theme, the rock star feel...
...Robert L. Borosage, cofounderoftheCampaignforAmerica'sFuture,agreed, saying, "The Clinton-Gore ticket defied conventional wisdom, but it really worked well for that team...
...At the suggestion that Romney might pick independentSen.JoeLiebermanashisrunningmate,one observer responded, "A Mormon-Jewish ticket...
...The Republicans' problemistheydon'thaveanyonewhoishot...
...Some observers believe lower-tier presidential candidates such as Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, and Bill Richardson were angling for the vice-presidential nod from the very beginning...
...However, several observers believe Giuliani at the top of theRepublicanticketwouldmakePennsylvaniaandpossiblyNewYorkcompetitivefortheGOP...
...Norquist agreed, adding, "The Clinton camp would not want someone who would interfere with the coronation unless she beat him so decisively [in the primaries] that she could look good picking him up and dusting him off...
...T H EC A M P A I G NS P E C T A T O R LookingOutforNumberTwo 5 8 T H E A M E R I C A N S P E C T A T O R N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 by Mark Hyman TThe 2008 vice-presidential sweepstakes begin...
...If Sen...
...Norquist believes the Republican nominee's overallchancesrestonthevotesofSouthernBaptists...
...Ted] StricklandandflipOhio[intotheDemocraticcolumn]," observedJohnMcIntyreofRealClearPolitics.com...
...N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 T H E A M E R I C A N S P E C T A T O R 5 9 Among the politicians most often suggested as potential Democrat running mates are Bayh, Virginia Gov.TimKaine,andformerVirginiaGov.MarkWarner, although he appears to have taken himself out of consideration with his run for retiring Republican John Warner's Senate seat...
...IftheDemocratspickfirstandselectStrickland,thenthe Republican nominee may pick [John] Kasich or [John] Boehner to put Ohio back in play," McIntyre observed...
...As the longtime head of Americans for Tax Reform, Norquist has closely watched presidents work with Congress when their party is in the majority...
...Hedoes not see a number two Republican dramatically changingandenergizingtheticket.Nearlyallobserverswere in agreement that none of the GOP candidates have electrifiedtheirbaseasClintonandObamahavedone...
...Coen offered Tennessee's Lamar Alexander as a leadingRepublicanrunningmateselection...
...Having the president's party in control of Congress is key to moving an agenda forward, advised Grover Norquist...
Vol. 40 • November 2007 • No. 9
