INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
Srodes, James
2 2 T H E A M E R I C A N S P E C T A T O R N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT EGACY OF ASHES, Tim Weiner's expose of the CentralIntelligenceAgency,wasreviewedin this magazine's...
...CIA back then also was charged with telling presidents facts they often are unwillingtoface;butonethingtheagencymustnotdo is politically advocate within an administration for a course of action no matter how deeply imperative it may seem...
...troopscouldbeginbytheendof1963...
...Third, as one sits back and looks over the range of information just made public it is impossible not to realizethatthepresentboutofpoliticalmud-wrestling overhowAmericacomestofinditselfengagedinafrustratingmilitaryconflictintheMiddleEastisanuncanny repeat performance of many of the mistakes and arrogant disregards of the presidents covered by these studies...
...It fell to Colby as the new DCI to clean the stables and then to undergo the public purging demanded by investigative committees of both the SenateandHouse.Allthisagainsttheexpresswishesof a bewildered President Gerald Ford and his dominant secretary of state, Henry Kissinger...
...One does not have to subscribe to Weiner's thesis that the CIA was fatally flawed during its early construction by the Truman administration and has been kept afloat by deliberate schemes to deny a succession of presidents access to truth...
...Throughallofthis,CIAcaseofficersontheground inVietnamandanalysisstaffbackatLangleyhadbeen steadfastly pessimistic either that the South Vietnamese government could achieve stable control in the provinces or that the Viet Cong could be defeated by conventional military methods...
...Three points leap out at once from even a cursory reading of these documents...
...there was no James Bond or Jason Bourne hidden away in Langley...
...2 2 T H E A M E R I C A N S P E C T A T O R N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT EGACY OF ASHES, Tim Weiner's expose of the CentralIntelligenceAgency,wasreviewedin this magazine's September issue and needs no further comment from me...
...Someofthe"jewels"aren'tamusingatall,tobesure...
...Experimentswithmind-controllingdrugsmayhavehad roots in post-Korean War alarm about the threat of brainwashing, yet they were so irresponsibly administeredthatthecostinhumanlifeanddamagedpsychesis a genuine stain on the agency's honor...
...Again,wheretheintelligenceproductfaileditwasmost often because presidents chose to ignore it and placed greaterweightonotherconsiderations...
...At each step Johnson increased the U.S...
...The second point is that at least during this 20year period, the quality of analysis provided to Presidents Truman through Nixon was surprisingly good...
...Note the extra "s" at the end of the https://prefix, which provides for a secure connection...
...N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 T H E A M E R I C A N S P E C T A T O R 2 5 J A M E S S R O D E S IntheearlydaysoftheKennedy administration,thepresidentyieldedto pressurefrommilitaryandpoliticaladvisers...
...Invariably overlooked by critics is the indisputable point that the CIA first and foremost is a servant of the President of the United States...
...So too was the brutal treatment meted out by CIA to Soviet defector Yuri Nosenko, who was severely questioned over 42 months to test whether or not he was a mole...
...This 11,000-page file dumped out on the public tables is a sampling of what are known as "hard target analysis...
...If it is to do so again, reform cannot be left to those who only view the agency through the prism of their own agendas...
...So when President Eisenhower set in motion, and the Kennedy brothers ratified, aid for opponents to do away with PatriceLumumba of the Congo, or Dominican dictator Rafael Trujillo, or later when the Kennedys targeted Fidel Castro, the attempts hardly brought the agency the kind of reputation for murderous efficiency that the Russiansecurityservicesenjoytothisveryday.Indeed the spectacle of the CIA's covert director for the Western Hemisphere happily plotting away unawares to kill Castro with Sam Giancana and Santos Trafficante when both mobsters were targets of FBI criminal probes islaughoutloudcomic...
...War is said to be too important to be left to thegenerals.Sotoointelligencereformistoovitaltobe left to intelligence critics who select the evidence and then filter it through their own agendas...
...James Srodes, a Washington writer, is the author of AllenDulles:MasterofSpies(Regnery),namedthebest intelligence book of 2000 by the Association of Former Intelligence Officers...
...ThemostglaringcaseistheconfirmationthatCIA neverdidhaveanin-housecapacitytocarryoutassassinations...
...involvement, surging ever larger commitments of troops into conventionalengagementandultimatelyenlargingthe war by a bombing campaign against North Vietnam...
...legendary for his clarity of writing and for his painful honesty...
...Perhaps the most dramatic example of how good I N T E L L I G E N C E A S S E S S M E N T 2 4 T H E A M E R I C A N S P E C T A T O R N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 Oftentheagencywasbetteratgathering intelligenceandprovidinghigh-quality analysisthanitwasatthecoverttasks thatpresidentssuddenlyorderedup...
...Considering what a wall of secrecy the leaders of the Kremlin had maintained against Western intelligence penetration, the initial series of analysis about the death of Josef Stalin in 1953 is pretty all-encompassing, including a remarkably accurate forecast of the final triumph of Nikita Khrushchev over older, morepowerfullyplacedpossiblesuccessors...
...As the identity and character of the presidentchanges,sodoesthatoftheagency.Congressmay exerciseitsoversightrolebutadirectorofcentralintelligencemustalwayswalkthenarrowlineshortofadvocacyandsometimesriskbeingmarginalizedinorderto tellthetruth.NoteveryDCIhasbeenabletodoboth...
...By the end of 1962, however,McConehadtiredofbeingedgedoutofinfluenceandbegantoorderthattheNIEspresentedtothe presidentmorecloselyreflecttheestimatesbeingprovidedbythePentagon...
...Itdoesn'talwaysworkoutthatneatly.The"Three Episodes" study by Harold Ford grimly sets out what happenswhengoodCIAanalysisisdismissedbypresidentsandtheirnon-agencyadvisersandwhensuccessive DCIs choose to shape intelligence to the taste of themomentinordertostayintheroomsofpower.The case in point is how White House strategy on the VietnamWarwasshapedbetween1962and1968inthe faceofcautionaryintelligence...
...Yet any realistic analysis today must conclude that the agency and the broader intelligence community need a top-to-bottom reinvention if it is to function in a world that no more L resembles the global reality of 1947 than a Hollywood spy movie...
...Often the agency was better at gathering intelligenceandprovidinghigh-qualityanalysisthanitwasat the covert tasks that presidents suddenly ordered up...
...The study reflects the actual National Intelligence Estimate John Kennedy used during the crisis days of October 1962, when he risked nuclear war in ordertofacedowntheSovietleaderand forcethewithdrawaloftherockets.The ignominious retreat ultimately forced Khrushchev frompowerlessthantwoyearslater...
...This material is freely accessible to anyone with a home computer and thereadercanatleisurereadboththeagency'sdissection of questionable activities and a wide selection of theanalysisprovidedtopresidentsfromDwightEisenhowerthroughRichardNixon'sfirstterm...
...But its publication does make for a good place to bring a halt to a genre of nonfiction that might well be titled, "The CIA is worse than any enemy thatthreatenedAmerica...
...Instead, the agency's acts are treatedasevidencethattheentireColdWarwaseither an intentional exercise in bureaucratic empire building or a sinister plot to suppress civil liberties among U.S.citizensofconscience--orboth.But now there is a convenient way for the concerned citizen to learn the truth and to make judgmentsonthenatureofCIA'struerole.Andthisismost important: There now is an opportunity for a genuine public dialogue about the kind of intelligence service the United States needs to build that will both keep us safe from our enemies abroad and preserve our civil protectionsathome...
...KHRUSHCHEV'S MAIN ERROR OF JUDGMENT wasthat hethoughtKennedysoweakhewouldagreeto negotiate the long-stalled recognition of East Germanyasanation,withdrawAmericantroopsfrom Berlin, and perhaps even dismantle U.S...
...Thiswasagainstastreamofintelligencecomingoutof the agency which warned that the successive military coupsinSaigonwereundercuttingeffortstostrengthenresistancetotheVietCongamongruralVietnamese and that increasing the severity of military operations againsttheNorthcouldonlyresultinfiercerattacksin theSouth...
...Schlesinger ordered all agency department heads and rank-and-file employees to report to William Colby, then the executive director, any examples of actions "whichmightbeconstruedtobeoutsidethelegislative charterofthisAgency...
...Finally, there is a study that examines three episodes in which intelligence providers during the Vietnam War faced critical choices in what facts and analysistheyprovidedpresidentsJohnF.Kennedyand LyndonB.Johnsonatwatershedmomentsduringthat war.Thestudy,titled,"ThreeEpisodes:APerspective," istheproductofHaroldFord,alegendaryheadofCIA's research and analysis staff...
...intelligence analysis can lead to good policy responses by a president is a 1964 CAESAR study of the attempt byKhrushchevtosmugglebatteriesofballisticmissile warheads into Cuba in the summer and autumn of 1962...
...The agency is a tool, and often a weapon, that presidentsuse,andoftenmisuse,asashortcutthrough N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 T H E A M E R I C A N S P E C T A T O R 2 3 BY JAMES SRODES The Central Intelligence Agency once helped keep our country safe...
...SINCE JUNE, HOWEVER,afloodofdeclassifiedmaterialhasbeenmadepubliclyavailable,thusbreaking the traditional monopoly enjoyed by critic-authors over the research material and interviews they use to make their cases...
...The sampling of 147 CAESAR, POLO, and ESAU studies produced by the specially selected Sino-Soviet StudiesGroupbetween1953and1973werenotintendedas"finished"intelligenceanalysisforthepresident's "eyesonly,"butratherasarawknowledgebaseforuse bydifferentanalysisgroupswithintheagencyaswellas other intelligence providers such as the National SecurityAgencyandDefenseIntelligenceAgency...
...A good attempt to organize "The Family Jewels" and put thosedocumentsintomoremanageableformatcanalsobefoundat George Washington University's National Intelligence Archive (http://gwu.edu/~nsarchiv...
...This state of fantasy continued into the Lyndon Johnson presidency where an even more pliant DCI RichardHelmssucceededMcCone.Eventhrough1968 LBJwasbeingassuredthattheVietCongorderofbattle did not exceed 300,000 troops, when the CIA reportsshowedevidenceoftwicethatnumber...
...IttookafailuretoevenacknowledgetheearlyCIA (andothersource)warningsofanimpendingVCattack during the 1968 Tet holiday to bring Johnson to the shockedrealizationthatanegotiatedpeacewastheonly wayoutforAmericaandthathispresidencywasoneof thesacrificeshewouldhavetomakeasaconsequence...
...the tangles of foreign crises...
...Evenfunnieraretheagency'sattemptstoinfiltrate domesticcivilrightsandwarprotestgroupsunderpresidential concerns that Moscow might be financing and evenorganizingtheprotests.AtonepointaCIAoperative was planted in the ranks of the National Organization for Women to probe its subversive roots...
...Nosenko convinced his questioners of his bona fides and was restoredtoasomewhathappylife,butthecaseisgraphicproofthatwhilewemaynotbeabletokillourenemies very well, there is an agency capacity for torture that bearscloseexamination...
...He is currently working on a biographyofCIADirectorWilliamE.Colby...
...Colby paid for his candor with his job and saw his disclosures magnified anddistortedbyagenerationofbooks...
...First to be declassified in June was a 702-page much-anticipated document known as "The Family Jewels...
...PARTLY BECAUSE SO MANY ofthedisclosuresin"The FamilyJewels"fileswereleakedalmostassoon asthecongressionalcommitteesgottheirhands on them in 1975, the files themselves have lost a lot of theirshockvalue.Andagain,someofthecovertoperationsorderedupbypresidentsturnedouttobeclumsilyhandledornotdoneatall...
...In July came an even larger trove of declassifications...
...Entire archives have been built of magazine articles and books that deny our intelligence community anysubstantivesuccessinkeepingussafesincetheCIA was chartered in 1947...
...What the CIA analysis found was that Khrushchev had decided the missile gambit on his own without referenceeithertotheSovietmilitaryorhisownpartyleadership.Hewasimpatienttoclosethegapinthebalance of power that the United States enjoyed in armaments, economic strength, and most important in world prestige.HeevenliedtoawaryFidelCastrothattheKGBhad proof that Kennedy intended to recoup his failure to back the failed Bay of Pigs landing the year before by launchinganall-outattackontheislandby1963...
...1To access this and other previously classified in-house studies, the Internet address is https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-thestudy-of-intelligence-csi-publications...
...But a selective reader needs to keep in mind the basic question at issue: What patterns emerge that are useful in designing a new intelligence architecture to protect and serve this nation during the foreseeable years ahead?Simplynaminganewintelligencechieforstickinganewagencyontothetableoforganizationisnota substitute for a thorough reorganization that will salvage the parts that work and jettison the parts that are broken...
...These are analytical monographs and reference works compiled by a special research directorate that provided the background material for the NIEs,the National Intelligence Estimates, that the agency provides to presidents on the crucial issues of the moment...
...Our intelligence crisis is merely complicated furtherbytheinsertionofanewNationalIntelligence Director and his anemic bureaucracy and the lumberingcompetitorsatHomelandSecurity...
...This is a special drawback to the CIA exposes by former serving officers of the agency whose disappointments become sharpinstrumentsofrevenge...
...This and the rest of the CIA website are free of charge and easy to navigate...
...DCI John McCone had been sharply critical ofthisescalationstrategy.YetotherJFKadvisersfrom Defense Secretary Robert McNamara to White Housestaff such as Walt Rostow had promised JFK that a surgeoftroopswouldproduceaslam-dunkreversalof the Communist threat and that a draw-down of U.S...
...In the early days of the Kennedy administration, the president yielded to pressure from military and politicaladviserstosendU.S.troopstoLaosandSouth VietnamtocounterCommunistmilitarysuccessesand to shore up the dysfunctional government of South Vietnam...
...Allofthisisancienthistorytobesure,butitshould be studied as precedent for a future rebuilding that mustcomeifwearetosurvive...
...The file is organized in three segments known as CAESAR (Soviet intelligence), POLO (People's Republic of China), and ESAU (SovietChineserelationsandotherintelligencetopics...
...It was commissioned by then Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) James Schlesinger in 1973, just as the Watergate scandal fired up in earnest...
...Ford's impeccable reputationissuchthathewasabletoleavetheagency, spend five years on the staff of the Senate Intelligence Committee, and then return to CIA to form a new inhouseanalysisgrouptooverseeNIEs.1 It is not necessary to wade through all of the approximately 3 million words in these three sets of documentstogetatruerpictureoftheCIA'sstrengths and weaknesses during the 20 years covered...
...missile bases inTurkeyinordertogettherocketsoffhisdoorstep.It alsowasclearthattheSoviethierarchywasappalledby their leader's gamble and that there was little support forit.FacedbyafirmdeadlineimposedbyJFKandby a backlash at home, the Soviet leader abandoned Castroandtookthemissileshome...
...Schlesinger soon found himself swept out of CIA bytheWatergateturmoilandintothepostofsecretary of defense...
...As with most of the other groups, no foreign connections were found but the woman operative could then not be easily withdrawn since she had become too prominentanofficialwithintheNOWorganization...
Vol. 40 • November 2007 • No. 9
