CAPITOL IDEAS:Taxing Hazards Ahead
Bethell, Tom
C A P I T O L I D E A S Taxing Hazards Ahead by Tom Bethell S THE NEW CONGRESS CONVENES, an obvious hazard faces us. We have to go back to 1989, when George Bush’s father was president, to...
...Tom Bethell is a senior editor of The American Spectator and author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Science (Regnery Publishing...
...It has even crossed my mind that McCain may be quietly hoping that his recommendation is not accepted...
...they [Democrats] talk about tax increases...
...The balance of power in Washington is actually more dangerous now than it was when Bill Clinton and the Democrats were in full control...
...Anything that emerges from negotiations with Congress won’t be called a tax increase, of course...
...John McCain, the presumptive Republican frontrunner, has called for such an increase...
...Bush Sr...
...So we are in a position where Democrats can lure us into dangerous waters and blame Republicans if they go there...
...Bush should have accepted that verdict and moved on to something more important...
...If it’s in trouble— which it is not for at least the next ten and probably the next 20 years—he should let the Democrats worry about it...
...He got nowhere because the Democrats could see that if Social Security is privatized, or even moves in that direction, their own legacy is gone...
...The goal will be to get Bush to lift the “cap” on income subject to the payroll tax, currently set at about $95,000...
...It’s their program and they already refused to let him change it...
...The big difference now is that with a Republican in the White House, anything dangerous to the economy that Bush accepts will be blamed on Bush...
...Robert Byrd Bush’s feckless campaign to bring democracy to the Middle East, and Democrats will carry the White House just as they did Congress...
...Three Washington Post reporters interviewed Bush before Christmas and asked him about domestic policy, Bush promptly said he wants to work on Social Security...
...They did in fact raise taxes, but only a little bit...
...And now that Iraq has gone from cakewalk to calamity, he wants it more than ever...
...The GOP will continue to take the blame for cal policy is concerned, they favor “deficit that his recommendation is not accepted...
...That’s what Newt Gingrich called Bob Dole some years back...
...If he does, here’s his legacy: Tax collector for the welfare state...
...It has even crossed my mind that McCain may be quietly hoping of West Virginia won’t stand for that...
...But he wanted a legacy...
...On the Lehrer NewsHour, David Brooks and Mark Shields will agree that, finally, something constructive is afoot...
...He would have to lay off the coal industry, of course, because Sen...
...In summary: President Bush has so far avoided the mistake his father made (in raising taxes) but (in invading Baghdad) he made the mistake that his father avoided...
...But putting it as explicitly as Gingrich did was seen as impolite...
...My own suspicion is that extra troops will not do the trick...
...Democrats will shrug and say what they said to Bush’s father: Sorry, pal, but you accepted the deal...
...Thrown into the mix will be promises of a more moderate growth in the rate of spending...
...It’s an issue that a president is just going to have to keep talking about to convince people it’s worthwhile to take the risk,” Bush said, “—the so-called political risk to work together to get something done...
...That was also the danger in 1989...
...Thanks for cooperating all the same...
...Their ideal is this: Democrats take the credit for spending other people’s money for compassionate purposes and Republicans do the right thing by raising our taxes to pay for their programs...
...He is just the latest in a long line of Republicans at Treasury who imagine that their first duty is to minister to big business...
...The lib-Dems may well promise Bush a friendly page in the history books if only he hits Big Oil with a carbon tax...
...His main error consisted of trusting an aide called Dick Darman, who pushed for those tax increases and won...
...They pointed out that the program is fully funded for the next decade anyway so what’s the rush...
...On the spending side, at least until his final year, Clinton was considerably more restrained than George Bush has been...
...IGHTNOW, THEREIGNINGIDEAseems to be that we need 20,000 more troops in Iraq...
...After his re-election he tried to repair the system by introducing personal savings accounts...
...It was a sharp comment, and yet it precisely describes the role that Washington’s liberals have always wanted and expected Republicans to play...
...So they were careful...
...That way he can argue that our Iraq policy failed because his advice was not accepted...
...You could almost see the Post reporters salivating...
...lost his legacy at that moment...
...And yet another temptation looms...
...And Bob Dole, no slouch, figured out that being called the tax collector for the welfare state was not meant as a compliment...
...The GOP lost the midterm elections because of this hopeless and destructive conflict, and if the situation does not markedly improve within the next 18 months the voters will lose all patience...
...But George Herbert Walker took his enemies’ blandishments at face value and didn’t see what was coming...
...So the Democrats see that maybe they can roll him because he is so eager...
...The status quo in Iraq works to the Democrats’ advantage...
...The Democrats understood in 1993 that if they messed up, there would be no one else to blame...
...Follow-up questions included these words: “… some kind of revenue increases, tax increases...
...Will Bush fall for it...
...Clinton’s aides mostly understood the danger (“it’s the economy, stupid”) so they were prudent...
...It’s too late now to correct the latter error, but let’s hope that at least he doesn’t follow his father in heading over the tax-increase cliff...
...That means the middle class, in case you didn’t know...
...reduction,” which is to say tax increases...
...He had promised “no new taxes” at the Republican convention, but then he turned around and raised taxes in 1990...
...In other words, maybe Bush will agree to a tax increase on “the rich...
...The danger today is this...
...These will amount to exactly nothing, but will allow the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the TV networks to present the deal as a “grand compromise...
...Then (maybe) he’s in the clear...
...We have to go back to 1989, when George Bush’s father was president, to find a comparable state of affairs...
...Bush will be praised for ending the partisan rancor, at least on this issue...
...Secretary Paulson is a worry on his own...
...As far as the next presidential election is concerned, there’s a much bigger headache in store for Republicans: Iraq...
...This they confuse with the economy as a whole...
...David Broder and E. J. Dionne will advise that both sides need to give up things they cherish...
...They favor a weak dollar to boost exports, and as far as fisMy own suspicion is that extra troops will not do the trick...
...The relentless reporting of American servicemen killed—each death itemized on television and a front-page story in a small town newspaper— will become (has already become) intolerable and the party of the commander-in-chief will take the blame...
...C A P I T O L I D E A S Taxing Hazards Ahead by Tom Bethell S THE NEW CONGRESS CONVENES, an obvious hazard faces us...
...Such a mistake...
...The new congressional leaders recognize this and, fearful of being accused of selling out our troops, will not insist on a rapid withdrawal, as happened at the end of the Vietnam War...
...The Democrats and their allies in the press will actually be quite happy to lay a laurel wreath upon President Bush’s head...
...He was not re-elected, and, overall, his administration was not seen as a success...
...But Iraq has greatly complicated his path to the White House—so much so that in the end he may simply decide to call it off...
...Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform tells me that tax increases on income are not on the table in the White House, and let’s hope he’s right...
...Maybe I’m just being pessimistic...
...All he has to do is sign on to their pet cause—tax increases...
...3 6 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 7 T O M B E T H E L L [Treasury Secretary Henry M.] Paulson is going to take the lead for us up there, working with members of both parties...
...F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 7 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR 3 7...
...George W. Bush has for years been looking for a Social Security legacy...
...specifically tax increases on the table, then...
...Maybe Paulson will stop that one...
Vol. 40 • February 2007 • No. 1
