CONSERVATIVE STATES ADRIFT: Party Wars in Arizona
Slivka, Judd
I N ITS BEGINNINGS, THE MODERN CONSERVATIVE movement was little more than an uphill effort to rally around a single national leader at a time.first Ohio's RobertTaft and then Arizona's Barry...
...J OHN MCCAIN MIGHT BE SEEN a s a national leader, but in his home state party there's a leadership vacuum because no one with name recognition wants to take one for the team...
...Second place in the race is Len Munsil, a Phoenix lawyer...
...In many ways the law worked, often to conservatives' advantage...
...So that's what the GOP tried to do...
...She's a former state attorney general...
...He's more palatable to the business community, but only slightly...
...Three minutes later, Allen delivers her best line to the crowd, the one where she tells them Rosati told a newspaper reporter she was a "socialist, almost a communist...
...Meanwhile, what's happening in Legislative District 8 is indicative of what's happening everywhere in the state-Republicans fighting each other rather than fighting that Democratic governor...
...There is talk that he'll make a run for governor in 2010...
...After the last gubernatorial election, a board member of the Arizona Federation of Republican Women bragged she voted for the Democratic candidate...
...Then she drops her voice...
...There's Jon Kyl, the junior senator, whose name was kicked around for the Supreme Court seat eventually taken by Samuel Alito and who is a bedrock in the state, and possibly the only statewide candidate that the entire party can get behind...
...The people moving there tend to be more conservative than the average Arizonan and have helped create an ideological power base that many national conservatives would welcome...
...r CONSERVATIVE STATES ADRIFT Potty Wors in Arizono, continued from poge 26 Allen is strong enough and healthy enough to retain her seat in the senate, even if her opponent tells everyone that Allen is too old and too sick and too weak to be effective...
...They assume that when I'm calling and I say that I don't like the nastiness, they assume, 'Well, Matt's just a liberal'" This is the same Matt Salmon who was one of the most hard-line Republicans during his time in Congress, the same Matt Salmon who led a 1998 uprising against Newt Gingrich because Gingrich wasn't conservative enough...
...in 2004, for the presidential election, that number was above 70 percent...
...They're moving in record numbers to the suburbs southeast of Phoenix...
...But Arizona's political landscape is changing...
...It's a few days later...
...I look at the numbers and I see that John McCain is the only Republican who has a chance of beating Hillary Phoenix...
...The Abramoff scandal extends to Ohio, with Rep...
...I call and tell them that it's okay to disagree but we can't have the ugliness and the name calling...
...He would not be alone in this...
...In a May poll, 75 percent of Republicans in the state said they didn't care who the party's nominee was for governor...
...It's openly talked about...
...You had a lot of Republicans who stood their ground and then you had a lot of moderates who bolted for the Democratic governor's shirttails...
...wh ich she...
...The state is also reeling from the loss of $215 million, also for the Bureau of Workers' Compensation, that was invested in a risky hedge fund...
...It's evident in the field...
...But McCain's got star power...
...It's always nice to throw out scurrilous things about your opponent when you don't have a record to stand on," she tells the crowd, a reference to Rosati's single term in the statehouse...
...This SEPTEMBER 2006 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR 29 CONSERVATIVE STATES ADRIFT reduces Salmon's influence-and that of the party organization...
...It's a bit different for national offices-no i one really challenges GOP congressionalincumbents ' in Arizona...
...And both candidates are Republicans...
...Between 2000 and 2005, it grew by more than 17 percent...
...There is damn near a perfect storm that has brewed in Ohio," said Dale Butland, former chief of staff to Sen...
...John Glenn and now a Democratic consultant running a congressional campaign near Columbus...
...dollt' 10.(XX) ti T11~.',~ J~'fc )rt...
...This is getting more and more common in Arizona politics...
...The LD8 race is a Petri dish for Arizona," says Stan Barnes, a Republican lobbyist and former legislator...
...They dominated the legislature and sometimes it seemed like a race to see who could be the most conservative...
...The best way to look at the GOP in this state is to look at the last legislative session," he says...
...The 2004 legislative elections swept in a tide of publicly funded, hard-line candidates, mostly from the suburbs and exurbs...
...She's a centrist in the Clinton mold--in fact, a former Clinton appointee for U.S...
...In Arizona...
...I will do everything in my power to get him elected president...
...Noe has been charged with 53 counts of theft, money laundering, forgery, tampering with records, SEPT~!~B...
...Sen...
...The race is predicted to be a bloodbath, full of vicious comments from both sides, whisper campaigns, and mean campaign mailings...
...Ark" my hund,~ strtmq era)ugh:' Stnmg enough t(J I~.at hack a publicly funded...
...But Renzi has his own problems: In 2004, the Federal Election Commission found he illegally financed his 2002 campaign to the tune of $369,090 and he's come under fire for directing defense contracts to his father's company...
...Judd Slivka is a freelance writer and former newspaper reporter based in Phoenix...
...30 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR SEPTE~v'~ER 2006 JUDD SLIVKA/STEVE MYERS Still, it would take an unprecedented voter mobilization to beat Hayworth in the November general election, and as an incumbent and former sportscaster, he has money and name recognition to spare...
...Thus, the difficulty of finding someone to run against her...
...Barry's nephew Don Goldwater is considered a long shot for governor, while maverick Sen.john IHcCain is perhaps more a divisive figure for the internally riven state party than a unifying one...
...It used to be the prototypical Western state, empty, dusty, and with lots of land...
...Just over 5 percent of Republicans want him as governor...
...St rt Jtl~ e m JU~l t () Ix'at back the i• m.'ll attacks...
...Munsil, 29 percent...
...But Republicans in Arizona will live and die based on what happens to the rank-and-file...
...A Marine friend of mine calls her a 'poser.'" Allen, in return, has referred to Rosati as "not smart," and has sent out a piece of campaign literature quoting Rosati's admission in a deposition that 28 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR SEPTEMBER 2006 J U D D S L I V KA she called her campaign consultant to ask how to vote...
...But with Clean Elections money, candidates at the state level need less help from the party...
...It has to stop...
...Napolitano, 58 percent...
...The GOP elephant should have an "Arizona tattoo" on its haunch...
...Alate July poll by the Behavior Research Center in Phoenix found that the state's Democratic governor is attracting more than a third of registered Republican Latino voters in her race for re-election...
...She signed a huge tax cut...
...There's no one for the party to rally around...
...What's happening...
...By 2004, that number had risen to 28 percent...
...2006 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR 31...
...And both candidates are Republicans...
...She's publicly against gay marriage...
...At everyone...
...The poll numbers aren't heartening: In a May SurveyUSA poll, Hayworth was leading longtime Democratic state legislator Harry Mitchell 50 percent to 45 percent...
...Inside the golf course clubhouse, candidates are talking over the clink and clatter of Republicans eating scrambled eggs...
...the descendants of Taft and Goldwater are still prominent in the Republican Parties of their respective states, and Republican elected officials from both states continue to play prominent national roles~ut not all is well for Republicans in either jurisdiction...
...It's evident in conversations with Salmon when he says, "I'll admit, it's an uphill battle, and it's going to take a lot of money, but we can win...
...At the same time, the state's Latino population-traditionally Democrat-leaning-is growing...
...Although she co-chaired Ronald Reagan's 1980 fundraising campaign in Colorado, she is unpopular with many conservatives: She thinks that a woman's decision to abort a baby is between "her, her doctor, and her God...
...He's patrolled with the Minutemen...
...But she must w.nder...
...Why the bitterness...
...In May, Kyl led Pederson 52 percent to 37 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KPNX-TV in representatives who have their eyes is thinking of becoming a registered independent...
...AIh, n is 6 () ;-ill(.] runnin~ fi)r r~,-t.,It.,t.'ti,m t() tht., Arizona St:lit., Senatt...
...In July, it was 52 pero n greater ]jH...
...The level of discourse is vitriolic, and the party leadership lacks the ability to discipline anyone--including a group of rogue members that tried to censure McCain in the summer of 2005...
...The congressional delegation has one Democrat in it...
...The level of nastiness is rising in primaries across the state...
...He's up for reelection this year...
...Now, there are whispers about him running for the Senate, if a vacant seat should come up...
...U.S...
...But with his resignation from the policy committee, Shadegg lost his official power...
...A congressman, a popular county attorney, and the state senate leader all were rumored to have aspirations for the seat...
...And it's evident in a May Rasmussen Report poll that put Napolitano against Goldwater and Munsil...
...He's being more of a workhorse and less of a show horse...
...The average age in the room looks to be about 58...
...All chose not to run, leaving the Republican candidate's race to four guys you've never heard of...
...Butland has some experience in this arena, given that Glenn was the last Democrat to win any statewide non-judicial office, in 1992...
...He'll win...
...has gone amazingly low-profile...
...A Democrat hasn't taken the governor's office in 20 years...
...It's got a rock star, a bedrock, a conservative lion, and two representatives who have their eyes on greater prizes...
...I get down on my knees every night and give thanks to God that the Democratic Party is worse at this than we are...
...The incumbent is Democrat Janet Napolitano, whose approval rating in May was 72 percent, according to the Cronkite-Eight Poll...
...Allen knows her crowd-they mostly like her in this room and she's enough of a politician to know what she can get away with...
...The state's Republicans will come out if there's something to vote for...
...t r()llk~ ('ll(|t|~h tel, C~)ll~,fillL't.' |R~opit ' t|IM (.',lr()lvn 26 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR ~E...
...Don Goldwater is the leader of the pack so far...
...George W. Bush carried the state by 12 points in 2004...
...ide~ ~h)~ical ly rue led cand id:lte...
...Kyl has outraised Pederson hands down, picking up $9 million to Pederson's $3.9 million (including $2 million that came from Pederson himself), through the end of July...
...I)istrict H, which (.'()vers ,)he ,)t" t h e t{)niest-and most Rel}ub[i(.'andistricts in tilt = nation, representing nlC).~t of.'Scottsd-'iie...
...For an interview with TAS, Rosati is only slightly milder: "My opponent is really a Democrat...
...It's evident by the fact that only one of the four Republican gubernatorial candidates--Munsilhas raised enough money to qualify for public funds...
...She has law and order credibility...
...Between 1990 and 2005, Arizona's population grew 62 percent...
...This circling of the wagons by Republicans and firing at will is destroying this party...
...She talks like a Democrat and she votes like a Democrat...
...Buckeye Blues, continued from page 27 powerful nationally: Cincinnati's John Boehner is the newly elected House Majority Leader, and the Columbus area's Jo Ann Davidson is co-chairman of the Republican National Committee...
...School kids learned that the state's economy was based on five C's: copper, cactus, cattle, climate, and citrus...
...Part of it is the state's Clean Elections laws, which were designed to publicly fund even those candidates who might otherwise be stuck out on the fringe, to create the proverbial level playing field...
...Her opponent, state representative Collette Rosati, has called Allen a"tax-and-spend" Republican and "a socialist, almost a communist...
...The state's politicians have a history of rancher populism...
...The junior senator is up for re-election this year against Jim Pederson, the former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party...
...People are moving to Arizona, mainly to the suburbs...
...But as more Latinos entered the middle and upper-middle classes, voter registrations began to s h i f t - a t a glacial pace-towards the Republican Party...
...It may not have been many troops, but it's hard to make political hay out of your opponent doing what you've being complaining about not being done...
...The duf1 - - ~ fers outside are beginning to wilt as the temper. l _ ~ a t u r e crests 95 degrees...
...Matt Salmon is sitting in a conference room at the state GOP headquarters, a low-slung cement block building in a forget-about-it part of east-central Phoenix...
...But times have changed, and the state with them...
...A RIZONA HAS VOTED for a Democratic presidential candidate only once since 1948...
...John McCain The race is predicted to be a bloodbath, full of vicious comments from both sides, whisper campaigns, and mean campaign mailings...
...Carolyn Allen is in most ways a moderate Republican...
...bad a r t h r i - tis...
...l It.'r h:mds :lrL, gnarled and misshalx.n, the rusult (ffl);=d...
...There's McCain, the rock star of the Senate and arguably the nation's most popular Republican right now...
...If we can't win this year, I don't know when we win...
...The ideological wing of the party is empowered and emboldened...
...Today...
...Up to $i3 million of the original amount could be missing according to lawyers...
...Welcome to Arizona in 2006, where the Party of Goldwater in the State of Goldwater is fighting itself for its own life even as senior U.S...
...Hayworth, whose re-election race has been targeted by Democrats, because of Hayworth's conservative positions and the fact that the liberal university city of Tempe is in his district...
...There's Congressman J.D...
...But will he re-emerge on a national level...
...angles for the presidency...
...He's taking a page from Jon Kyl," says Salmon, the state GOP leader...
...There was 55 percent Republican voter turnout in 2002 for the gubernatorial election...
...The money wing is reticent...
...cent to 40 percent...
...And he says something unexpected, but then again, not as unexpected as it would have been just a few years ago...
...The state's delegation has two up-and-comers who aspire to higher office...
...Kyl will probably win...
...But as with the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform on the national level, the official party organization lost influence...
...Enough that even the solidly conservative Salmon is rooting for him...
...And then she sent National Guard troops down to the border...
...But in a recent poll, not even 15 percent of Republicans said they wanted him as governor...
...There's a portrait of Barry Goldwater on the wall, and Salmon is talking...
...It's not native growth...
...This is the biggest political vacuum I've seen in 20 years in Arizona," Barnes says...
...He'sjust been asked about the state of the party in Arizona...
...Independents were breaking 50 percent to 44 percent for Mitchell, and Hayworth trailed Mitchell both among women voters and among highly educated voters...
...And the rank-and-file is ticked...
...Goldwater, 34 percent...
...She's fought the Democratic governor tooth-and-nail on tort reform, but she has voted with the governor on other issues...
...He was responsible for $50 million in investments for the state Bureau of Workers' Compensation...
...He has written for the Los Angeles Times, Slate, the Wall Street Journal, and other publications...
...So why the fighting...
...In 2000, Latinos made up 25 percent of the state's population...
...It's got a rock star, a bedrock, a conservative lion, and two Clinton," Salmon says...
...J UST ASK BRUCE BARTON...
...l)unt;~in ilills, and Hi() Verde...
...Beyond that, though, voters have a chance to witness an in-party catfight, and one that's largely impossible for the state party to stop...
...Some of the crowd laughs at this, some of the crowd gasps...
...I N ITS BEGINNINGS, THE MODERN CONSERVATIVE movement was little more than an uphill effort to rally around a single national leader at a time.first Ohio's RobertTaft and then Arizona's Barry Goldwater...
...John Shadegg...
...It's been a few minutes since Allen has discussed Rosati's attacks on her by leveling one of her own...
...Consider the governor's race...
...Shu shakes ]l:mds st r{)ngly...
...I make calls," sighs Matt Salmon, the chairman of the state GOP, a former congressman and the losing candidate for governor in 2002...
...But maybe not for long...
...Finally there's Rick Renzi, the congressman from the sprawling 1st Congressional District...
...He resigned his chairmanship of the policy committee in order to run, lost the race, and then disappeared...
...registered independents prefer him by 10 points...
...Now in his third election, Renzi has faced a succession of everweaker challengers and has been remarkably successful securing appropriations for his district...
...l ~ ACK TO THAT SATURDAY MORNING in July...
...But Republicans nationwide are dealing with unease about Iraq and the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal, and Ohio is a microcosm of the national scene--concerns about Iraq, dissatisfaction with a comparatively stagnant Rust Belt economy, and disgust with a political scandal that has cast its shadow on the governor's mansion...
...New polling indicates that the immigration debate has stopped that movement in its tracks...
...But McCain is a polarizing force within the state...
...John McCain might be seen as a national leader, but in his home state party there's a leadership vacuum because no one with name recognition wants to take one for the team...
...Most of the state's Republicans like him, but a small, vocal minority thinks he has been less an Arizona senator than a national figure...
...attorney...
...Neither of them is going to move off their positions...
...Then there's John Shadegg, the representative from north Phoenix who was chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee, the fifth-highest ranking Republican in the leadership...
...St r~,lg enough t=, waI4t' her Ov~'n...
...l'tlis m~)rning she's d()ing tilt.' h:lndshake thing...
...Napolitano, 55 percent...
...Barton's ticked at the President over Iraq, ticked at "tax and spend" Republicans, and The state's congressional delegation is the calmest place in Republican Party politics...
...Carolyn is a solid moderate and Collette is much more from the ideological wing...
...Ney's open seat is one of four considered by Democrats to be competitive this year...
...ruprt.senting [x.gislativt...
...But the larger issue here is the scandal known as "Coingate:' invoMng Republican Party actMst Thomas Noe...
...for the first time in the state's history, independent registrations are gaining in the state's rural, conservative, and heavily Mormon eastern half...
...Party Wars in Arizona l 'r is ~ s vJ-ttu, ~'~ sl~ ,tr in July, and (.';wolyn Allen is talking, makin~ her w:w t|m~ugh t,.v(P d()zen t~L'()i)Ie ~;lt IIt.'red inside :l golf course cluhhou...
...Barton's the vice-chairman of the Republican Party for Graham County, a conservative stronghold in the state's southeastern corner...
...Ohio Democrats thus sense unprecedented opportunities...
...He's a former state employee and Barry Goldwater's nephew and has been campaigning on a "low taxes, get the illegal immigrants out" platform...
...At the state level, frustration has never been higher, and it is aimed at everyone: President George W. Bush, McCain, moderate Republicans who sided with the governor on immigration issues, conservative Republicans who are pulling the party farther to the right...
...And the result...
...When the governor signed our water away last year to California," says Barton, "I didn't see John McCain saying she shouldn't" And some national Republicans might wonder how well McCain could unify the party nationally in a presidential campaign when he has let his own state party get so torn to shreds...
...Even Barton, who is sour on most of the elected leaders, loves Kyl...
...Voters have a clear choice: What flavor Republican do theywant...
...Shadegg rose from obscurity to run for Majority Leader as a candidate who espoused small government, finance reform, and conservative ideals...
...There are two other candidates, too, but they're barely bringing in any money and have resorted to attacking the fact that Napolitano isn't married...
...Bob Ney implicated in guilty pleas by others involved in the scandal, though the congressman has not been charged with a crime...
...fresh off an influential run for House Hajority Leader in which he played kingmaker for Ohio's Rep.john Boehner...
...He has to trade on his name...
...Meanwhile, the state's congressional delegation is the calmest place in Republican Party politics...
...There's not a lot of room to flank her, except on immigration...
...Hayworth was widely speculated to be a challenger for the governor's race, but he declined to run...
Vol. 39 • September 2006 • No. 7
