The Empty Cradle Will Rock How the Democrats lose voters through abortion-literally
EASTLAND, LARRY L.
The Empty Cradle Will Rock How the Democrats lose voters through abortion—literally. BY LARRY L. EASTLAND ORE THAN 40,000,000 LEGAL ABORTIONS HAVE BEEN PERFORMED and documented in the 30...
...Abortions 37 47 41 5 5 31 59 48 26 abortion policies eliminate who, over the next several decades, would have emerged as the new liberal thinkers, voters, adherents, fundraisers, and workers for their cause...
...This is borne out when viewed by political party as defined in the Wirthlin survey...
...With the possible exception of Illinois, most major reporting and analyzing institutions would rate each of the other open seats as "too close to call" at this stage of the campaign...
...If voting patterns in the past two presidential elections (combined) hold true for 2004, then five of these states should be an advantage for the GOP: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Carolina...
...Examining these results through a partisan political lens, the Democrats have given the Republicans a decided advantage in electoral politics, one that grows with each election...
...Missing Voters by Political Party There is a significant difference (Table 2) between Republicans with someone close to them who has had an abortion, and Democrats with someone close to them who has had an abortion...
...Traditional factors are far more important, such as: strong candidate, solid organization, appealing issues, and sound finance...
...Given the usual advantages of incumbency, the swing of marginal states from 2000—shoring up Republican victories and tipping the scales from Democrat to Republican in Democratic states—may very well determine the popular and electoral outcome in 2004...
...For advocates so fundamentally committed to changing the face of conservative America, liberals have been remarkably blind to the fact that every day the abortions they advocate dramatically decrease their power to do so...
...Missing Liberals Abortion has caused missing Democrats—and missing liberals...
...Table 4: Florida 2000 Actual vs...
...Imagine the number of followers that their 28 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 2004 TABLE 8: MISSING BY IDEOLOGY % of Total % of Pop...
...These numbers will not change...
...The Republican advantages are real: more Democrats (19) are up than Republicans (15), more Democrats are retiring than Republicans (and from advantageous states for Republicans), and Republicans usually do better in a presidential election year...
...Supreme Court declared abortion legal...
...No legislation passed in the name of reform-including the 1974 post-Watergate campaign finance reform legislation-has ever increased the challenger advantage or lessened the incumbent advantage no matter what the intended goal...
...This tells us: • Republicans have fewer abortions than their percent of the population, Democrats have more than their percent of the population...
...This is important because most analysts today believe that the 2004 election is likely to be a replay of the 2000 election, except with an incumbent Republican president this time...
...The 2004 Presidential General Election The next question is: what do these numbers tell us about the 2004 election...
...Moreover, it is an advantage that they can never regain...
...Missing Democrats Political % of Total % of Party Party % Party Party Abortions w/abortions electorate Loss/Gain Republican 35 28 39 +4 Independent 16 30 17 Democrat 49 36 44 -5 JUNE 2004 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR 25 THE EMPTY CRADLE WILL ROCK (self-identified liberals), the more abortions they have...
...The McCain-Feingold legislation will not change this...
...A little more than one-third of Americans call themselves liberals...
...For example: • There are 19,748,000 Democrats who are not with us today (49.37 percent of 40,000,000...
...Do Democrats realize that millions of Missing Voters—due to the abortion policies they advocate—gave George W. Bush the margin of victory in 2000...
...With these factors in mind, the internationally respected survey research firm Wirthlin Worldwide was commissioned to ask 2,000 respondents in a stratified random sample of adults the following question: As far as you know, has anyone close to you had an abortion?The emphasis here was on "close to you" in order to bring to mind only those people inside the respondent's circle of socio-demographically homogeneous family and friends...
...Democrats account for 30 percent more abortions than Republicans (35/49...
...it's quite another to look at actual human beings...
...More than four in ten are having abortions...
...The following figures represent all votes cast in those states in 1996 and 2000 in the last two presidential year general elections for candidates to the U.S...
...The more ideologically Republican the voters are (self-identified conservatives), the fewer abortions they have...
...But translating percentages into numbers for the purpose of evaluating their impact on politics makes the importance of these numbers real...
...It is the political equivalent of Buddhist monks setting themselves on fire in political protest...
...Missing Voters Added Actual Missing Combined Candidate Vote Voters Vote Bush 2,912,790 107,799 3,020,589 Gore 2,912,253 153,163 3,065,416 TOTAL 5,825,043 260,962 6,086,005 LARRY L. EASTLAND Table 5: The 7 Closest States from 2000 with Missing Voters Added 2000 Vote: 2000 Vote: Missing Revised State Bush Gore Voters 2004 Total Florida 2,912,790 2,912,253 R = 107,799 R '00 = winner by 537 25 electoral votes D = 153,163 D '04 = winner by 45,366 Iowa 634,373 638,517 R = 23,556 D '00 = winner by 4,144 7 electoral votes D = 33,469 D '04 = winner by 14,057 Nevada 301,575 279,978 R = 10,762 R '00 = winner by 21,597 4 electoral votes D = 15,291 R '04 = winner by 17,068 New Hampshire 273,559 266,348 R = 9,992 R '00 = winner by 7,211 4 electoral votes D = 14,196 R '04 = winner by 3,006 New Mexico 286,417 286,783 R = 10,608 D '00 = winner by 366 5 electoral votes D = 15,072 D '04 = winner by 4,830 Oregon 713,577 720,342 R = 26,536 D '00 = winner by 6,765 7 electoral votes D = 37,703 D '04 = winner by 17,932 Wisconsin 1,237,279 1,242,987 R = 45,900 D '00 = winner by 5,708 11 electoral votes D = 65,216 D '04 = winner by 25,023 This table shows the actual vote from 2000, and then shows what the change would be in 2004 else remaining the same-just the Missing Voters were added...
...CONSERVATIVE REPS % of % of Total % of Group Ideology Pop...
...What we know from several generations of social science research about children is: • They tend to absorb the values of their parents...
...Between 1973 And 1990 Election Year Abortions Aggregated Affected 1973-1974 1,643,200 1,643,200 1992 1975-1978 4,939,800 6,583,000 1996 1979-1982 6,202,800 12,785,800 2000 1983-1986 6,314,800 19,100,600 2004 1987-1990 6,325,400 25,426,000 2008 be noticed, but that doesn't mean its political impact disappears...
...In the actual popular vote for president in the 2000 general election in Florida, George W. Bush was declared the winner by 537 votes...
...The popular vote in these seven states, with 63 electoral votes, was less than one percent apart between the two candidates in 2000...
...What do the Missing Voters take away from the Democrats in each state...
...conversely, children not born in a given year are "Missing Voters" 18 years later...
...But if the 260,962 Missing Voters of Florida had been present to vote, Al Gore would have won by 45,366 votes...
...presidency a generation later, in a way feminists could not have imagined...
...TABLE 6: OPEN SENATE SEATS - 2004 JUNE 2004 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR 27 THE EMPTY CRADLE WILL ROCK Conservative Consequently, the impact of Missing Voters could be considerable in states where the electorate is evenly divided between the two parties over a period of elections...
...Consider: ....A...
...Look at the results: • Six out of ten Americans call themselves conservatives...
...Abortions Having Abortions Liberal/Democrat 40 48 38 Moderate/Independent 11 10 30 Conservative/Republican 49 41 27...
...It is a grim irony lost on them, for which they will pay dearly in elections to come...
...What would these Missing Voters have meant to the election in Florida...
...Like an avalanche that picks up speed, mass, and power as it thunders down a mountain, the number of Missing Voters from abortion changes the landscape of politics...
...How would they have voted...
...By adding the votes of the Missing Voters, Democrats could have picked up Florida, and solidified their vote in the other six states (where election challenges could certainly have been seriously considered...
...The various socio-demographic characteristics of these respondents were then imposed on the abortion statistics (Table 1 above), with a specialemphasis on the 2000 and 2004 general elections to see what impact they likely would have made had the Missing Voters been present to vote in those two elections...
...The 2000 Presidential General Election Let's look at the 2000 election to see what those 6,033,097 Missing Voters meant to its outcome...
...BY LARRY L. EASTLAND ORE THAN 40,000,000 LEGAL ABORTIONS HAVE BEEN PERFORMED and documented in the 30 years since the U.S...
...Look inside these numbers at where the political impact is felt most...
...In this year's election, there will be 18,336,576 in the VAP missing because of abortions between 1972-1986...
...In fact, 96 percent of incumbent U.S...
...Larry L. Eastland is managing director of LEA Management Group LLC, a public policy research organization...
...It's one thing to quote percentages and statistics...
...So by combining categories, an even sharper contrast comes into focus: Liberal Democrats are having both more abortions—and more abortions as a percentage of their ideological and political group—than either of the other groupings...
...Still, longterm party allegiance is a major factor...
...I remember the guy at my 30th high school class reunion who looked over the people there and remarked, "I can't believe I came in person, while everyone else sent their parents...
...What's largely ignored is a factual analysis of the political consequences of 40 million abortions...
...Even if abortion were declared illegal today, and every 26 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 2004 Table 3: 2000 General Election single person complied with the decision, the advantage would continue to grow until the 2020 election, and would stay at that level throughout the voting lifetime of most Americans living today...
...Democratic warriors torched voters from the next generation as they made their supplications before the altar of abortion...
...Congress—a traditional bellwether for predicting base federal candidate vote...
...By comparison, then, the Democrats have lost 5,848,000 more voters than the Republicans have...
...The Missing Voters would have been 6,033,097 based on that portion of the 51.2 percent represented by (at their lower voting level) 18-24 year olds...
...The debate remains focused on the legality and morality of abortion...
...Permanently so, unless someone discovers a way to give birth to a teenager in a nine-month gestation period...
...Missing Voters—through decisions made in the 1970s and early 1980s, encouraged and emboldened by the feminist movement at the height of its power—altered the outcome of the U.S...
...For half of these candidates, this will be that most expensive campaign...
...The table above gives the number of Missing Voters from abortion and election years affected...
...The 2004 U. S. Senate Races A similar scenario can be constructed for the U.S...
...In open seat contests, the party vacating the position cannot "hand over" the seat to the new party nominee...
...The more ideologically Democratic the voters are Table 2: Abortions — Missing Republicans vs...
...In the 2008 election, 24,408,960 in the VAP will be missing because of abortions between 1973-1990...
...This means that Missing Voters would have been 4.48 percent of all actual voters in 2000...
...Only a quarter of them are having abortions...
...As liberals and Democrats fervently seek new voters and supporters through events, fundraisers, direct mail, and every other form of communication available, they achieve results minuscule in comparison to the loss of voters they suffer from their own abortion policies...
...When election time comes, these Missing Voters will be missed...
...As seen during a famine, what no longer exists becomes as relevant as what does...
...They tend to have the same political views as their family (parents, siblings, immediate relatives) and share common views on political causes...
...There are 13,900,000 Republican who are not with us today (34.75 percent of 40,000,000...
...Senate races this fall...
...senators win re-election...
...Conversely, three states would lean Democratic: Georgia, Illinois, and Louisiana...
...This isn't particularly surprising given the core constituencies of both political parties...
...Ideology Liberal Moderate TABLE 7: MISSING VOTERS % of Group Having Abortions TABLE 9: MISSING: LIBERAL DEMS VS...
...V There were 12,274,368 in the Voting Age Population ("VAP") of 205,815,000 missing from the 2000 presidential election, because of abortions from 1973-1982...
...The Democrats could have increased their popular and electoral count beyond the scrutiny of the courts and "the court of public opinion...
...I ET'S BEGIN WITH THE OBVIOUS: Children born in any given year arrive at voting J age in 18 years...
...The most expensive campaign a candidate will ever run, the adage goes, is the one he or she loses...
...What would their values have been...
...The number of abortions accumulate in size and political impact as the years roll along...
...The question arises: Who would these Missing Voters have been if they had reached voting age...
...Given the extremely close result in 2000, these voters could have been a crucial factor in the outcome...
...This means that liberals are having one-third more abortions than conservatives...
...Of the 2,000 respondents, 636 responded "yes...
...They tend to develop the same lifestyle as their family...
...The absence of the missing voters may not 24 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 2004 LARRY L. EASTLAND Table 1: Abortions In The U.S...
...Missing Voters and the 2000 Presidential General Election There were 105,405,100 votes cast for president in the 2000 General Election representing 51.2 percent of the Voting Age Population...
...If we use the seven closest states from the 2000 election as our guide, we can see what these Missing Voters would do to the vote in each state...
...Consider the open seats whose incumbents have chosen not to run for reelection...
...Generally accepted "givens" are: • Incumbents typically win...
...These Missing Americans—and particularly the millions of Missing Voters—when compounded over time are of enormous political consequence...
...What impact would they have had on the great debates in America, including the abortion debate...
...They are based on individual choices made—aggregated nationally—as long as 30 years ago...
Vol. 37 • June 2004 • No. 5
