Decline and Fall
Longman, Phillip
BOOKS IN REVIEW - "Decline and Fall" the action believed the crossing would have failed "but for the stentorian lungs of Colonel Knox." Not a man was lost and, equally important, not a single piece of the precious...
...Once a society begins urning out more retirees than workers, there is a strain on both private and public pension funds...
...And then they will begin to fall...
...power and influence in the world...
...During the 1970s, doomsday scientists were predicting famine and environmental catastrophes as the result of what they saw as human overpopulation...
...Washington was not the kind of general who goes in for flashy victories in the field...
...In Germany, for example, public spending on pensions is expected to increase from an already overwhelming 10.3 percent of GDP to 15.4 percent by 2040...
...And many are certain that this contraction, not overpopulation, is the real population crisis facing man...
...Ecologist Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, predicted that by the year 2000 Japan would run out of food and mobs of starving Chinese would overrun Russia...
...IN THE END, SURPRISE WAS ATTAINED and Washington went on to win the Battle of Trenton, killing or taking prisoner nearly 1,000 Hessians...
...Marina Malenic is a writer in Washington, D.C...
...For example, Longman notes that in the United States, the cost of raising a middle-class child born this year through age 18, according to Department of Agriculture estimates, exceeds $ 200,000—not even factoring in the cost of higher education...
...Of those entries, the majority are about migrating shorebirds, the California amphibian population, and the eastern lowland gorilla...
...Most surprising of all, many demographers are predicting that even the developing world, with places like Mexico and Bangladesh long the home of the proverbial teeming masses, is likely to begin shrinking soon after the West does...
...Behind the army was the Continental Congress, and it was always Washington's policy to insist that he was lawfully appointed Commander-in-Chief serving a legitimate government, which in turn stood for the sovereignty of the people...
...This is an interesting line of thought to emerge from a work of military history, and is characteristic of Fischer's admirable book, which has reflective insight as well as narrative power...
...Thereafter he had few doubts that, given enough time, equipment, and men, he could win the war...
...Absent plagues, famines, or massive wars, for the first time in history human population is expected to begin contracting...
...He also takes a look back at the conventional wisdom of the past few decades that a human "population bomb" was ticking and would be a weapon of mass destruction set off against all life on earth...
...Europe as a whole is expected to lose 4 percent of its population by 2025...
...Indeed the absolute costs of raising children in Western countries have grown astronomically as well...
...PRosm-Arry IA 1 I ti i TO Do -soLT IT 76 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR DECEMBER 2004/JANUARY 2005 Just RIGHT Holiday Gifts A BRIGHTER TOMORROW FULFILLING THE PROMISE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY 111/1...
...As Longman shows in The Empty Cradle, the prescriptions of people like Ehrlich for reducing fertility over the past few decades have poised the world to collect massive negative dividends...
...And then,demographers believe, there will be a decline, perhaps even a rapid one...
...Fischer writes authoritatively on all aspects of the war, with a mass of relevant and often picturesque information, much of it new to me...
...This meant, above all, keeping intact and functioning an army always in the field and capable of fighting and winning a major battle, as it eventually did at Yorktown...
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...Decline and Fall The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It by Phillip Longman (Basic Books, 288 pages, $26) Reviewed by Marina Malenic QUICK SEARCH FOR THE TERM "population decline" in an articles database turns up 257 nglish-language results for the past two months...
...He was comforted by the high spirits of the men, glad to be on solid earth, though they were wet and frozen...
...The general consensus among demographers now is that the numbers will peak at about 9 billion people in 2070...
...The same idea, he argues, "spread to many American institutions, including business corporations, colleges, Protestant churches, voluntary associations and public organizations of many kinds, all with their civil boards and professional managers...
...But Longman notes that we may be at or near the end of the line on the longevity revolution, and that diseases related to Western lifestyle, such as cancers and heart attacks, seem at 41(MS I %LIAM...
...It strongly affirmed the principle of civilian control over the military and also established the practice that military men should direct military affairs, subject to oversight by civil leaders...
...For one example, Longman cites a London School of Economics study of entrepreneurialism worldwide...
...DECEMBER 2004/JANUARY 2005 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR 75 BOOKS IN REVIEW In much of the developed world we are seeing the foreshadowing of that ultimate decline...
...According to the economists who conducted the study, there exists an almost perfect correlation between countries that have large numbers of retirees relative to their work base and low rates of entrepreneurship...
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...He might have added "newspapers, magazines, and TV stations...
...The initial difficulties are obvious ones...
...This is why, in all his dealings with British commanders, he held out for the observance of the formalities of war, especially the way in which he was addressed...
...Although many factors have led us to this stage, Longman notes that a complex economic dynamic is the prime factor in lowering fertility rates...
...As he puts it: "Congress was firmly in charge, but George Washington and his generals were running the war...
...Human beings have been living with an expanding population throughout their time on earth...
...He notes that the winter of 1776-7 was decisive in a political as well as a military sense...
...Nowadays children often remain economically dependent on their parents well into their own childbearing years because it takes longer to develop a worker—such development includes not only skills, credentials, and education, but also the social understanding and personal maturity necessary for success in a complex, networked economy...
...In his new book, The Empty Cradle, Phillip Longman argues that shrinking birthrates will affect both domestic politics and U.S...
...Washington was initially downcast because the crossing, though accomplished, was three hours behind schedule, and he feared he had lost the element of surprise...
...11 I %II WHAT A KlItIC A •^ ^el...
...ND THEN THE AGING BEGINS...
...As Fischer adds, "a solution which was originally improvised in 1776-7 became a permanent part of the American system...
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...Japan and France are currently among the least entrepreneurial countries in the world, the study finds—and simultaneously the grayest...
...Some have touted the "longevity revolution" as one of the answers to the modern population dilemma, with workers expected to live longer and therefore more productive lives...
...Congress reached an agreement with Washington about their respective functions...
...The illustrations are many and good, the maps—very important for understanding the events he describes—excellent...
...Russia is already losing population, and only immigration is keeping Italy from following suit...
...At all costs, he must never allow the army structure to disintegrate and the troops to dissolve into guerrilla units...
...BOOKS IN REVIEW the action believed the crossing would have failed "but for the stentorian lungs of Colonel Knox...
...United Nations forecasts now show that world population growth is likely to peak by 2070...
...He wanted to wear the British out and undermine their will to continue the war...
...A few days later he won a second action there, and then contrived to destroy a British brigade at Princeton...
...These victories were on a comparatively small scale, but they had an incommensurate effect in raising the morale of the army, persuading many civilians to resist British occupation, and, not least, restoring and enhancing Washington's own self-confidence...
...In all countries, as people move to urban areas in which children offer no economic reward to the family, and as women acquire access to education, economic opportunities, and contraception, the opportunity costs of childbearing continue to rise...
...Fischer also writes with wisdom...
...After Trenton and Princeton, "Congress treated Washington with growing respect, and military leaders were very careful to acknowledge the principles of Civil Supremacy...
...Not a man was lost and, equally important, not a single piece of the precious artillery...
...Of course, by 1990 the discredited Ehrlich had tweaked his thesis slightly, saying that, "Actually, the problem in the world is that there are much too many rich people...
...Unlike Napoleon, but like Wellington, whom he resembled in many ways, Washington thought in terms of long-range strategy...
...Japan is expected to begin its downward slide next year, and over the next 50 years to lose as much as one-third of its population—a drop equivalent, the Japanese demographer Hideo Ibe has noted, to the one caused by the plague in medieval Europe...
...A permanently contracting population is part of a brave new world no one has ever seen...
...Longman shows that these costs stem from the tendency of economic development toward a more education-intensive economy...
...Only about a dozen of the articles mention shrinking human birthrates worldwide and the ultimate result of that decline which many demographers are now predicting: a diminishing human population before the end of this century...
Vol. 37 • December 2004 • No. 10
