Politics: No More Surprises
Norquist, Grover G.
II alEoll I I I I I i I E . l J e l l by Grover G. ~orquist No More Surprises This election year is proving not to be 1992 or 1996. A s this column went to press in earl}' October, daily...
...contrast, the younger Bush has run a Reaganesque campaign of inclusion, working with taxpayers, traditional values conservatives, homeschoolers, business, the military and defense COlnmunily, and gun owners...
...A Marist poll, however, found the two tied...
...convention and ever since...
...Spence Abraham, a Lebanese-American...
...There will be October surprises...
...Now it just has to dodge the coming October surprises, the hidden flood of cash, and voter fraud...
...He could revert to killing foreigners in places beyond CNN's reach or promising the Israelis and Palestinians billions in American money in return for a "peace in our time" photo-op...
...Since only 7 ~ percent of registered voters actually vote in presidential years, and only 7 ~ percent of adults are registered, a pollster citing the opinions of all adults or even all registered voters is deliberately reporting the views of Americans who won't vote...
...Nothing is beyond this team...
...Bill Clinton and Gore will have to find ways to stop their momentum...
...In fact, weekend polling oversamples Democrats...
...After Columbine, Clinton and Gore began pushing for congressional votes to ban gun shows and regulate all private gun sales...
...What wouldn't China pay for closing down investigations of espionage...
...Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and Philadelphia could cost him Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania...
...There'll be voter fraud on November 7. Is the Bush campaign prepared to wage an effective ballot securib ~ effort...
...Or he may do both...
...More accurate is the research done by independent polling companies whose credibility is on the line...
...Gore had also fired his best shots to little effect: Texas as a third world nation, George Bush as executioner, risky tax schemes, the Million Morn March, pharmaceutical benefits...
...In its haste to use executions against Bush the left has abandoned its previously principled argument against the death penalty that might have attracted social justice Catholic voters...
...T he 2ooo election was also the first time both parties targeted the 6 million member American Muslim community...
...Muslims are also strong in Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and California...
...It is alreadv assumed that ClintonGore have promised a post-election release of the Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard...
...Meanwhile, the National Rifle Association grew from 2. 9 million to 4 n million members between March 1999 and September zooo...
...Tom Davis (R-Va...
...The oldest mosque, in Cedar Rapids, was visited by both Gore and Bradley before the Iowa caucuses...
...Federal prisons are full of possible sources of contributions and political support...
...And the most likely voters are more Republican...
...One measure of the Democrats' retreat on guns was Gore and Lieberman's silence on the issue at the L.A...
...In 1994, Arab Americans raised more than $1 million to help elect Republican Sen...
...Bush was polling 9 a percent of Republicans even before the GOP convention...
...Only the GRovER G. NORgUIST is president of pro-life movement didn'tfeelbetrayed...
...Whereas Dole in 1996 allowed !limselfto be portrayed as anti-education and harsh, Bush has led oil education by talking up conservative values such as choice and accountability...
...F inally, Republicans have had to relearn a lesson they should have learned in 1996--that public opinion polling can be manipulated to demoralize a campaign...
...Of three million Arab Americans, one million overlap with America's 6 million Muslims...
...Just when Democrats thought that gun control was swinging their wag March spokesmen such as Rosie O'Donnell switched the rhetoric from "reasonable" safety measures such as gun locks to gun confiscation...
...A s this column went to press in earl}' October, daily tracking polls showed George W. Bush and N Gore running neck and neck...
...For example, take the New York Times poll immediately after the first Hillary Clinton-Rick Lazio debate...
...After John Fund's exposd the Newsweek poll made three changes in its methodology that helped bring the Gore margin from 14 percent to 2 percent in one week...
...The Times assumed a turnout of 87 percent of its registered voters sample...
...Throughout the '96 campaign, polling by establishment outlets like Newsweek showed huge Clinton margins...
...Rather than oppose the taking of life as such, this year it emphasized that new DNA testing could prove guilt or innocence...
...Now he is fighting for control of the Justice Depa~nent in the next administration...
...The Muslim American vote went two to one for Bush in 1992 and two to one for Clinton in 1996...
...They know as well as anyone that the battleground states of Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania--where NRA memberships are up 33 percent--are home to many of the nation's 18 million hunters...
...John Fund of the Wail Street Journal has shown how media pollsters have twisted their polls to favor Gore and dispirit the Bush campaign...
...NRA President Charlton Heston agreed to serve an unprecedented third one-year term, and the NRA poured $20 million into half-hour infomercials...
...The higher turnout assumption created almost the entire Clinton lead...
...Or that Chelsea has become engaged...
...October Surprises, unreported cash, and voter fraud were the three great unknowns going in November 7. But a great deal is already known about the 200o campaign...
...What's more, hunters, not just gun owners, are angry at the Clinton-Gore administration for allowing the GittmanRobertson Wildlife Conservation Fund (which is supposed to use tax revenues from gun sales to provide hunting areas) to back anti-hunting extremist groups...
...Also, as a convicted serial robber who had kidnapped and raped a 57-year-old woman, Graham was not exactly an attractive poster child...
...He only lost by eight...
...As Michael Barone has pointed out, October is the one month in the election cycle when conservative candidates can match establishment media bias with their own paid advertising...
...First, the Bush campaign avoided the mistakes ofogz and 096...
...Then the Million Mom March was "spontaneously" organized by"housewife" Donna Dee> Thomases, who happened to be a former CB S staffer and the sister-in-law of Hillary Clinton gaI pal Susan Thomases...
...What would Castro pay for a post-election relaxation of sanctions...
...Clinton will do her part...
...Muslims had been trending Republican through 1992, but strong outreach from the Clinton administration has begun to move the Muslim vote toward the Democrats...
...The last time Clinton was in big trouble he unleashed cruise missiles on a pill factor)' in Sudan and bombed Iraq...
...Bush consistently refers to people of faith who attend "churches, synagogues and mosques...
...Third, Democrats couldn't make capital punishment a winning issue...
...It was in October four ?ears ago that money from Indonesia, Communist Chinese agents, and Buddhist monks was discovered...
...Anything for a few days of sympathetic press...
...New sources of funds will emerge...
...Who next in the Gore clan will be described as carrying a dread disease...
...Today there are more than 1,7oo mosques and Islamic Centers nationwide...
...In 199z, the elder George Bush irritated almost eve U part of the Reagan coalition: gun owners (by pushing an executive order limiting gun imports), taxpayers (by raising income taxes in violation of "no new taxes"), businessmen (by imposing onerous new regulations, including the Americans With Dis...
...the Democrats scrambled to have their own Muslim prayer in Los Angeles...
...We know the Democrats will t U and steal those states...
...It didn't help that O'Donnell was exposed as a rich hypocrite-her adopted son's bodyguard has a concealed carry gun permit...
...Compassionate conservatism" has made the case that conservative policies such as welfare reform are genuinely compassionate while liberal big-government programs ruiil lives, destr W neighborhoods, and leave a great deal of blood on the floor...
...Republicans gain ground in October...
...IN The American Spectator _9 November 2000 79...
...These recounted how Australia and Great Britain 78 No v e m b e r 2 o o o " The American Spectator began with licensing and ended up confiscating handguns and rifles...
...A Zogby poll last July found Muslims support many conservative positions: 85 percent favor allowing individuals to invest some of their Social Security taxes, 84 percent back school vouchers, 75 percent support the death penalty, 61 percent would ban abortion except for life of the mother, and 73 percent oppose racial preferences in hiring and college admissions...
...The left is now without an argument against all future convictions based on the new DNA technology...
...The final Newsweek poll had Dole losing by 23 points...
...Why the discrepancy...
...By Americans for Tax Reform...
...Rep...
...Clinton-Gore sold a veto oftol~ reform for campaign cash and pardoned Puerto Rican terrorists in the name of ethnic outreach...
...If not, voter fraud in East St...
...On page one the Times claimed Hillary had jumped to a nine-point lead...
...Rather than kill foreiD~ers , A1 Gore tends to exploit his fami]y...
...Bush has refused to cede the moral high ground of good intentions to the left...
...We do not know if they can and will be stopped...
...Gore faced a further problem...
...has called on the Post Office to issue a stamp honoring Ramadan...
...The footage was so powerful that the ads have paid for themselves in new memberships...
...The effort peaked with Gary Graham...
...This is a community that could go either way this year and in elections to come...
...This was bad news for Gore, who should have been running well ahead given the nation's peace and prosperib...
...abilities and Clean Air acts...
...Since his execution on June 22 there have been 15 other executions in Texas--and the left has stopped talking about them...
...The Bush campaign has survived the tainted poll attack that was so damaging to Bob Dole in 1996...
...Voters should follow these four daily tracking polls: Rasnmssen (portraitofamerica.com), Gallup (gallup.com), Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas's bipartisan Battleground Survey (voter.corn), and Zogby/Reuters (zogby.com...
...Michigan, where Muslims and Christian Arabs make up three to five percent of the vote, will be a test...
...There are other possibilities...
...A coordinated media campaign argued that innocent people were being executed and that Governor Bush, who has overseen 14o executions, had the most blood on his hands...
...Perhaps she'll announce she's sti]] hoping to adopt a child...
...Second, Democrats again failed to capitalize on what they keep hoping will be their silver bullet: gun control...
...His defenders were badly undercut when the key eyewitness in his case, a black woman, publicly stood by her story...
...For the first time ever at any national convention, Republicans in Philadelphia were led in prayer by a Muslim...
Vol. 33 • November 2000 • No. 9
