Gore's Lost Cause

...But assuming for a moment that the experts are right, and in the last days of the campaign Bush and Gore are separated by one, two, maybe zero percentage points, what will Gore do...

...Although Gore continued the "fighting" rhetoric in the first days after the convention, there were signs that it made some Democrats uneasy...

...If it is, it will be unusual...

...Honoring Honor \Vhi]e Lieberman's credibilitz ~ is invaluablc to Gore in some ways, it still doesn't give the vice president a strong defense of his own actions in office...

...Although the idea is a staple of Democratic talking points, it's probably more accurate to say that people don't know Gore as he would like to be known...

...By saying he'll raise the minimum wage...

...He's the Freddy Kreuger of campaigners...

...I don't like mudslinging," one of the focus group members said, "but you can't argue with the facts...

...Pollock also discovered that Lieberman's famous criticism of President Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal played a more complex--and, from Gore's perspective, more valuable--role in "it's a murderers' row," says one source of Gore's staff...

...In the world of campaigning, you can't get better than that...

...He does it so well that he doesn't even seem to be attacking...

...He'll turn to Bill Clinton, the man he's been running away from for nearly the entire campaign...

...From that perspective, the race, for all its seeming complexity,, boils down to two questions...

...Nevertheless, Gore has a race to run, and what follows is a preview of the strategies he's likely to try in the final weeks of the campaign...

...From the first moment it was announced, Gore's choice of Lieberman was seen asthe vice president's attempt to immunize himself from charges that he was part and parcel of the corruption of the Clinton years...

...It's easy to see why some Democrats worry...

...And it's not just in debate that Gore plays rough...

...Still, concludes Pundit C, "This is going to be a very close race...

...7 _9 "fight for a real, enforceable Patients' Bill of Rights...

...Finally, some observers believe that Lieberman's religion-or, more accurately, his air of piety--also plays a role in his effectiveness as an attacker...

...Surveys taken on a nearly monthly basis for several years show that everyone in America has heard of A1 Gore and nearly everyone has an opinion about him...

...We will honor the ideal of equality by standing up for civil rights and defending affirmative action...

...It was an extraordinary admission, almost as if the senior George Bush had denounced Ronald Reagan's tax plan as "voodoo economics" after he joined the Republican ticket...

...These days, even many Gore supporters seem to believe that the vice president is an unusually vicious campaigner...

...When Gore picked the Connecticut senator to be on the ticket, the consensus among pundits shaping voter opinion than has previously been thought...

...9 "fight to rebuild and modernize our crumbling schools...

...Top aides Bob Shrum, Donna BraziIe, Carter Eskew, and others are well known as particularly hard-hitting personalities...

...VVhat can Gore do...

...You can count on it...

...l suspect you'll see a convergence of the populist and centrist themes in the campaign," says Kilgore...

...It was part of a series of factually questionable charges by Lieberman, but Pollock found that voters didn't mind at all...

...But Kilgore says Gore has begun to re-direct his argument away from the powerful forces and onto George W. Bush...

...Hell, that's all he knows how to do, isn't it...

...After all these years, many voters feel they still don't know the real A1 Gore," 22 October 2000 _9 The American Spectator adds Pundit B, suggesting that when people finally focus on the election, they'll be swayed by efforts to humanize the vice president and make him seem as likable as George W. Bush...

...if he really goes after Bush, he'll seem to be returning to his old, nasa" ways...

...Clinton's the guy to watch in October," says Republican pollster Kellyanne Fitzpatrick...

...A1 Gore can fight the powerful forces all he wants, but history is one he's not likely to beat...

...It's a popular line, especially among independent voters who aren't terribly angry at anything and are tired of all the fighting in says pollster John Zogby...

...He's Bill Clinton's vice president, the man who supported Clinton all the way, good and bad, for nearly eight years, and who wants to continue what Clinton has done, albeit as his own man...

...Although some Republicans protested that such comments were uncM1 and would be characterized as "mean" if they had come from the GOP, nobody was that he did not have the demeanor to launch the kind of fullfrontal attacks usually assigned to vice-presidential candidates...

...Answering charges that the president dishonored the office, Gore sought to re-define the concept of honor...

...That would certainly be the smart strategy...

...they simply trusted him...

...In a different way, the same applies to Bush...

...They know full well who he is...

...There's one other word we've heard a lot of in this campaign, and that word is honor," Gore said oath, romance the staff, and accept massive amounts of illegal campaign contributions...

...They may look like gentle people...

...Gore fits this history, and a lot of the election is set...

...7 _9 "fight for affordable health care for all...

...In a series of Gallup polls in which respondents were asked to say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gore, the vice president's numbers have been remarkably consistent over the years...

...He had greater depth of support than Gore, more people who gave him positive ratings and fewer people who gave him negative ratings...

...He'll do it like he did in '98, when he wasn't on the ballot...

...That leaves him with one option: He must try to bring Bush's positives down and his negatives up...

...I have no stake in the bitter arguments of the last few years...

...Voters have fewer reasons to know him, since he has never held national office, but they're able to define him by his family...

...The American Spectator _9 0 c t o b e r 2 o o o 23 Joe Lieberman, Attack Dog If that's correct-- if the public already knows who he i s - Core is unlikely to succeed in making lots more people like him in the short time left before election day...

...The polls show the same thing for Bush since his emergence on the national scene last year...

...And I think that will finally put in alignment the two themes that Gore has been pursuing: one, the continuation of the Clinton success record, and two, a sharper differentiation between the two parties...

...N The American Spectator _9 October 2000 27...

...Using the word 21 times in his speech, Gore promised to, among other things: _9 "fight for a targeted, affordable tax cut...

...When Lieberman delivered an attack, negative information, they didn't view it as an attack," Pollock says...

...And how did Gore respond...

...His favorable rating in the final weeks of the campaign, the vice president will try anything to win--not knowing that it's already over...

...Consider this: In the last eight presidential elections, the average portion of the popular vote won by the Democratic candidate was 43.7 percent...

...But at the convention, Gore came up with yet another strategy...

...The people in the group had no basis on which to judge whether Lieberman's accusation was accurate or not, but it didn't matter...

...By the end of the speech, Gore had defined the entire presidency in terms of fighfing...

...The problem I believe Gore is going to have with that is that this is not 1992 again," says Scott Reed...

...Political rallies tend not to be places for extremely thoughtful argument," Lieberman told the paper, suggesting that Gore's attacks were not entirely serious...

...the nation's capital...

...Lieberman has the perfect demeanor for attacking his opponents...

...It's simply impossible to find a pollster or consultant who is willing to contradict the conventional wisdom...

...It's going to be tight," says Jeffrey Pollock...

...I think we'll see Gore, as long as the race is close, trying to draw the contrasts without doing a Iot of name calling...

...He'll be the one tasked with going into black churches, into Hollywood...

...His people" certainly have done nothing to diminish Gore's image as an aggressive campaigner...

...Clinton's six-point victory over George Bush in 1992 was the tightest race in the last twenty years...

...And two, is George W. Bush likely to fall far short of the average GOP performance...

...Even stronger evidence of Democratic doubts came from Gore's own running mate...

...Finally, at his convention, Gore did just about everything he could d o - from deeply kissing his wife on national television to hugging his daughter to reminding everyone about his grandson-to show that he is a good family man who would not even think about dallying with the interns in the White House...

...over and over again, Gore promised to "fight" the powerful forces on behalf of the American people...

...I can't think of anything, any mission, more important for a political part3, or for our candidate than the mission of restoring honor a~d dignitv to the Oval Office," Chenev said the da~ after the Republican National Convention ended...

...I don't have enemies to fight," Bush said in his own convention acceptance speech...

...And you have my word: We will honor hard work by raising the minimum wage so that work always pays more than welfare...

...He's somehow seen as separate and apart from that, which is quite remarkable, because he's not...

...I fall the conventional wisdom of this year's political season were condensed into a single, clich6-filled panel discussion, the assembled pundits- no names, please- might characterize the coming election this way: "The public has not been paying attention to this presidential race at all," says Pundit A, noting that such attention won't come until after the Olympics, or maybe even the World Series...

...While there is less polling on Bush, it indicates that people like him more than they like Gore...

...Tm proud to be on this ticket with him...

...But it has also put the vice president in a bind...

...You talk about character and honor and integrity, Joe Lieberman is known for those qualities," Gore said in a late-August rally in Quincy, Illinois...

...But they are killers...

...Tve taken on the powerful forces, 26 October 2000 _9 The American Spectator and as president, I'll stand up to them and I'll stand up for you...

...Look for his running mate, the previously mild-mannered and moderate Joseph Lieberman to take the job...

...But it's not because they're not interested...

...But prior to that time, from January through August of this year, his favorable rating averaged 56 percent, while his unfavorable rating was 37 percent...

...It would seem that there's not much else he could do...

...In fact, at least among those in the focus group, LJeberman's perceived rectitude in some ways makes Gore look ~orse-whv couI&~'t he have criticized the president, just like Joe Lieberman did...

...There's not a whole lot of variation there...

...For 1999, the only other year that Bush was a nationally known figure, he averaged a favorable rating of 7o percent with an unfavorable rating of 2o percent...

...In 1997, before the Lewinsky scandal, his favorable rating averaged 54 percent, with 35 percent unfavorable...

...Adding to the problem is polling data showing that Bush and running mate Dick Chenev scored well at their convention by pledging to clean up after Bill Clinton-and, by association, A1 Gore...

...This year, many in the COP expect him to do the same thing, although at a discreet distance from the vice president...

...in 1999 averaged 56 percent, with 38 percent unfavorable...

...I think we're looking at a Kennedy-Nixon redux," If the race is close, it will be unusual...

...Gore's belligerence stands in stark contrast to George W. Bush's pledge to "change the tone" in Washington...

...without appearing to attack the entire Clinton administration, which many Americans view favorably...

...Bill Clinton's sixpoint victory over George Bush in t992 was the tightest race in the last twenty years...

...In the fall of 1998, Clinton, just weeks away from impeachment but tremendously popular among some core Democratic groups, traveled extensively, visiting churches, recording phone messages to be sent to thousands of homes, and otherwise giving his party a lift in an election in which the Democrats almost won control of the House of Representatives...

...It's no accident that the}, all referred to the "Oval Office," which not only reminds voters of the specific location of the Clinton/Lewinsky tusts but also targets Clinton's ethics in his acceptance speech...

...the United States has not had a close presidential election in quite some time...

...Pollock found that because Lieberman had spoken out on the Clinton scandal, focus group members were more willing to listen when he attacked the Republicans on completely unrelated topics...

...It's an article of faith among nearly everyone who writes about politics that Gore will accomplish that by launching an unrelenting attack on Bush...

...But ifAl Gore is not going to call names, who will...

...That analysis couldn't have been more wrong...

...They were saying 'Why couldn't A1 Gore say something like that?'" If Gore had, the focus group members might have been more inclined to believe other statements from the vice president...

...Jeffrey Pollock is a Democratic pollster who has been studying voter attitudes in some crucial Midwestern swing states...

...Is there some "real" Gore who, if he were better known to the public, would win easy election to the White House...

...9 "fight for a prescription drug benefit...

...He will not be seen with Gore, but he can go out and juice up the demographics and the turnout," says Scott Reed...

...I have to give them credit for collecting a mean bunch of people in one place...

...It's because they already know a lot...

...It was a breathtakingly Clintonian moment...

...questioned Brazile's assessment...

...But maybe it's not...

...The average portion won by the Republican candidate in the same period was 49.z percent...

...Perhaps, barring some unforeseen national crisis or a catastrophic gaffe by Bush, the underlying forces in this presidential election are lined up in the GOP's favor--and are unlikely to change...

...It's a murderers' row over there," says one experienced consultant...

...The fact that he's not only Jewish 24 O c ~ o b e r ~ o o o - The American Spectator but also that he's religious gives him this mantle of a non-political figure, someone who's therefore more credible because he's not part of the polarizing partisanship that marks our era," says Bill Carrick...

...His people have shown no propensity, to run positive campaigns at all...

...One of Bush's challenges is that people like him, but there are a lot of attributions to his famous father," says Scott Reed, who directed Bob Dole's losing Republican campaign in 1996...

...At least in terms of the recent past, presidential elections usually aren't close and Republicans usually win them...

...It is the only job in the Constitution that is charged with the responsibility of fighting for all the people," Gore said...

...He has tried to claim that he agreed with Lieberman and said so at the time the senator criticized Clinton...

...Perhaps, contrary to much of the commentary that fills newspaper columns and television talk shows, the presidential race is already pretty much decided-weeks before the first vote is cast...

...In any event, it seems accurate to say that the public's apparent lack of interest in the campaign is not a sign of its unfamiliarity with the candidates but rather the opposite...

...When Gore's Republican rivals spoke of restoring honor to the Oval Office, they obviously meant having a president who does not lie under Answering charges that Biii Clinton had dishonored the office 0f president, AI Gore sought to re-define the concept of honor...

...BacktoBill In the end, will it be close...

...The image of Gore as a vicious attacker has to some degree spooked his opponents--the Bush forces are so busy preparing for what they believe is the inevitable assault that they may not be concentrating enough on their own message...

...If it had metastasized into a general class warfare, that would have bothered us...

...One, is A1 Gore a candidate who is likely to significantly exceed the average Democratic performance...

...BYRON YORK suggests that the answer to each question is no...

...They had no context, they just believed Joe Lieberman...

...Bill Garrick, a California Democratic consultant who has worked in campaigns for and against Gore, adds, "I think the one lesson in this campaign is whoever has become--at least perceptually-the attack dog in the race has suffered in the polls...

...Maybe it's all true...

...Other speakers scored wcI] with the line, too...

...9 "fight for an equal day's pay for an equal day's work...

...l have to give them credit for collecting a mean bunch of people in one place...

...Surveying her team of opposition researchers in Nashville, Brazile told the New York Times in ]ate July, "I call this the slaughterhouse...

...in the minds of voters, Gore simply hasn't changed much over the years...

...Gore has also tried saying that he agreed wholeheartedly with the president's self-criticisms, an approach that didn't gain him any points for courage or integrity...

...Street Fightin' Populist Man At the Democratic convention, when Gore unveiled his "populist" campaign theme, he devoted a significant amount of his acceptance speech to denunciations of Big Oil, Big Tobacco, Big HMO, Big Pharmaceutical, and other supposed enemies of the American people...

...Just days after the convention, Lieberman told the Wall Street Journal that he and Gore are "pro-business," and that some of the vice president's statements might be classified as "rhetorical flourishes...

...Gore is, according to a recent and much-read piece in the Atlantic Monthly, "America's most lethally effective practitioner of high-stakes political debate-a combatant who wilt do whatever it takes to win, and who wins ug]y...

...Faucheux notes that while Gore began to turn some of those impressions around in the days after his convention, it is unclear whether the improvement will be lasting or whether Gore's favorable ratings will go back to where they have been during most of his time in office...

...He wiI1- but it won't be in the way that most observers expect...

...His statement that Clinton's behavior was "immoral and harmful"not only provides Gore with cover on the Lewinsky question, it also gives Lieberman standing with the voters to attack Bush on a whole spectrum of issues without seeming overly partisan-something that Gore is unable to do...

...I'm sad to say that in Texas, the quality of the air and water is some of the worst in America," Lieberman said on the tape...

...At this point, we have Bush as a slight favorite, as we've had him for most of the year," says Ron Faueheux, editor of Cam#aigns ~ Elections magazine...

...In fire last days of August, meeting with a focus group in Missouri, he played a tape of Lieberman's acceptance speech at the Democratic convention...

...But that backfired because, as it turned out, Gore didn't say so at the time...

...Do people really not know A1 Gore...

...General Colin PoweI1 said Bush "will bring character and integrib~ to the Oval Office," and national security aide Condoleezza Rice said "it a]l begins with integri F in the Oval Office...

...They gave Lieberman a pass because of what he said about Clinton," Pollock says of the focus group members...

...To me, honor is not just a word, but at~ obligation...

...I view that BYRON YORK is The American Spectator's senior writer...

...I think you'll still see the 'people versus the powerful' rhetoric, but it will be focused on the Bush tax cut...

...While that might strike fear in some Republican hearts, they should remember: There are only so many votes in the Democratic base, only so many AfricanAmericans, only so many union members, only so many movie stars, and A1 Gore already has the support of nearly all of them...

...Beyond that, his fighting words--his "rhetorical flourishes"- are likely to alienate many of the swing voters he is trying to attract...

...Anything is possible, but a close look at several factors shaping the campaign, plus a series of interviews with experts in both parties, as an asset, but you need more than that...

...He very carefully picked parts of the business community that are grossly unpopular," says Ed Kilgore, policy director of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council...

...Especially with an incumbent situation, the voter brings a lot of pre-existing beliefs to the booth," says Brian Lunde, a former executive director of the Democratic National Committee who now supports George W. Bush...

...And not just stand up...

...The polls bear out the idea that the public already knows both candidates well enough to decide for whom to vote...

...But Lieberman gives Gore more than that...

...Immediately after the Democratic convention, when he was on the receiving end of an upsurge in positive opinion, 64 percent of those surveyed rated him favorably and 30 percent rated him unfavorably...

...Whatever the case, he's no stranger to the American people, who are perfectly capable of judging him by the job he has done...

...Gore's people are fearful that the press has him cornered on this," Brian Lunde says, "so he can't become a slasher or it will boomerang on him...

...We will honor families by expanding child care...

...So Republicans should be confident...

...So often powerful forces and powerful interests stand in your way and the odds seemed stacked against you, even as you do what's right for you and your family," Gore told the delegates...

...If you entrust me with the presidency, I will fight for you...

...While Republicans thought he was poison, he was making points with the Democratic base...

...The economy has changed, the demographics have changed, more people have invested in the stock market...

...it seems reasonable to conclude that in the campaign's last weeks we'll see more of Lieberman's "sad to say" strikes, freeing Gore from the burden of delivering more straighton traditional attacks...

...says one Democrat who asked not to be named...

...Gore's class warfare is running up against a whole generation of men and women who are part of economic growth...

...AIWho...

...Awfully close," says Bill Carriek...

...As for the old-fashioned kind of honor, the vice president has apparently decided to defer to his running mate...

...They feel they know enough about both that they're really not checking in yet," Lunde says...

...From January through August of this year, his favorable rating averaged 62 percent, while his unfavorable rating averaged 31 percent...

...Perhaps, but in many areas, W. has adopted positions similar to his father's--sometimes aided by the same people who served under his fatherand it would be entirely reasonable for voters, when making their decision, to rely at least in part on their impressions of George Bush the elder...