Politics: How to Lose by Winning
Norquist, Grover G.
by Grover G. Norquist How to Lose by Winning If the GOP wins nationally but not locally--it loses. T here']l be three elections on November 7. The first will decide the presidency for the next...
...Without that advantage redistricting becomes a draw...
...a few turn the job over to "nonpartisan" commissions, and states with initiatives and referenda could find the citizens themselves submitting a plan for a vote...
...in Nevada and Oregon, its lead is two...
...Some pundits predict the Democrats will write offTexas because it's Bush country...
...Should November 7 produce the opposite results, watch out...
...Connecticut, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio one each...
...Nationwide, Democrats who had lost 35 seats in 198o regained z 7 seats in 1982, and up to twenty of those were direct results of redistricting...
...But because redistricting was done while Democrats controlled the governorship and both houses of the state legislature, they wound up with a z8-17-seat edge in 1982...
...This year's elections will change those numbers...
...What's especially important about the period between those two dates is that it will be the time of constitutionally mandated congressional redistricting...
...Republicans enter the post-zooo redistricting much stronger than ten years ago...
...The 2ooo Census will show continuing population shifts to the south and west...
...But that was before Jim Traficant, the colorful Democrat from northeast Ohio, declared that though he's running as a Democrat in 2000 he will vote to re-elect Republican Dennis Hastert as speaker...
...At the start of the Reagan presidency Democrats held 22 House seats in California to 21 GOP seats...
...In the 1984 Reagan landslide Republicans won a majority of California's votes for Congress--and yet because of the gerrymandering failed to pick up a single House seat...
...Twenty states with 24o congressional districts had split control...
...Pittsburgh's Ron Klink, who vacated his seat to run (badly) against incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum, will likely be succeeded by COP state senator Melissa Hart...
...On election night, then, pay close attention to the usually ignored state legislative races...
...Indiana is one of the latter, but if its two houses deadlock, the redistricting plan goes to a commission to which the governor has a tiebreaking appointment...
...A Bush landslide in Texas could give the GOP not only the four additional house seats, but a redistricting plan that allows the GOP to win six to eight additional congressional seats for the next ten years...
...GROVER G. NORQUIST is president of Americans for Tax Reform...
...New York and Pennsylvania will lose two...
...On top of that it's unlikely that solidly conservative Texas Democrat Ralph Hall would vote to install Dick Gephardt as speaker if Hall were the swing vote...
...The Americon Spectator - S ep t e m b e r 2 o o o 63...
...Even in those states that do not gain or lose seats, the state legislature could redraw the lines to one party's advantage...
...So is it better to spend money to defeat entrenched incumbent Rep...
...But Democrats want to use "sampling" or "adjusted numbers," so that they can attribute to big cities persons whom they cannot count, but who theoretically exist...
...The GOP could capture the senate in both New Hampshire and South Carolina with a net gain of one seat in each state...
...Four others (Hawaii, Idaho, New Jersey, and Washington) are redistricted by nonpartisan commissions...
...The key gubernatorial elections are thus Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Utah...
...In Missouri, Connecticut, and Tennessee the GOP is two seats short...
...In the best of all worlds for Democrats, they'll win the Utah governor's race and as few as 28 targeted seats to control ]8 states with 176 districts, share control in 17 states comprising 166 districts, and Redistricting means state legislative races are more crucial than ever...
...Her Democratic opponent remains in trouble for using the "N-word" in reference to a fellow Democratic state legislator...
...Such legerdemain limited the progress even a popular president like Ronald Reagan could achieve in the 198o's...
...Democrat Rush Holt, a fluke winner in 1997, is trailing badly in New Jersey to Dick Zimmer...
...The GOP holds only a threevote lower house advantage in Michigan, Minnesota, and South Carolina...
...Holding on will permit the GOP to drop two Democratic districts...
...Democratic redistricting in Texas proved so slanted that when Republicans won the congressional vote by 2. 3 million to 1. 7 million in 1994, Democrats still ended up winning 19 seats to the GOP's 11...
...In the past Democrats have wielded the redistricting pen to great partisan advantage...
...However problematic, fudging on the census is less important than control of the relevant state legislatures and governors for redistricting...
...In Wisconsin, one additional state senate seat will give the GOP full control, just about guaranteeing that the one seat Wisconsin loses post-Census will be a Democratic one...
...Virginia Democrat Owen Pickett's open seat is likely to go to Republican state senator Ed Schrock...
...In Pennsylvania, Republicans have only a one-seat majority in the state house...
...How ready will the GOP be to take full advantage...
...They would then eliminate from the count people in primarily rural, primarily Republican areas who actually have been counted...
...Today Republicans control with a majority of 222-211 and two Independents...
...The next president may find it difficult to require a real count...
...In 1991 Democrats controlled redistricting in 19 states with 172 congressional seats...
...It was assumed Democrats will need a net gain of six seats to take back the House...
...Seven states (Alaska, the Dakotas, Delaware, Montana, Vermont, and Wyoming) have only one congressional district and so won't be affected by congressional redistricting...
...Winning just two additional governorships and as few as 17 state legislative races (of 7,424 state legislators nationwide) could give the GOP redistricting control in 14 states worth 182 congressional districts, achieve split control in 15 states with lo 4 congressional districts, and limit Democratic control to lo states with 116 districts...
...S tate legislative races--the third major election area of 2ooo--are more crucial this year than ever before...
...Going into November they control the governorship and both state houses in ten states, including Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and Michigan, which will redraw 113 congressional districts (up five from 1991 ) . Democrats control 13 states--including California, Massa62 September 2000 _9 The American Spectator chusetts, and Georgia-with 144 congressional districts (down from 172 in 1991 ) . Sixteen states with 145 districts have split control...
...As for lower houses, the GOP is down four seats in Texas, Illinois, and Indiana...
...David Obey this fall or will it be better spent on winning the state senate seat that will allow Republicans to redistrict Obey out of existence by 2oo3...
...In 35 states the legislature will do the work, subject to the governor's veto-and in five of these veto override requires only a simple majority...
...Demographers expect these regions to gain a net eight congressional seats in 2002: two each by Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, and one each by California, Colorado, Florida, and Nevada...
...Here the Republican leadership will have to allocate scarce financial resources carefully...
...Tom Hofeller, redistricting director for the Republican National Committee, believes these two scenarios represent a swing of 4o House seats--almost lo percent of the entire House...
...A victory by Gordon Humphrey in New Hampshire would give the GOP both the governorship and the state house...
...The 2oo0 Census remains a political football...
...If David McIntosh wins in Indiana and the legislature remains split, he could control redistricting...
...On July 12, the Republican leader in the Wisconsin senate, Robert Welch, held a fundraiser in Washington for GOP senate challengers-two have a solid shot- and both Trent Lott and Dennis Hastert attended...
...Republican campaign planners should take note that winning the presidency and the Congress without winning the statewide legislative races critical to redistricting will prove expensive and short-lived-a Pyrrhic victory...
...In the Arizona, Tennessee, and Texas senates, the GOP has only a one-seat majority...
...Before leaving to run the Gore campaign, the politicized Commerce Secretary William Daley delegated the decision about going ahead with sampling to Commerce Department "experts" whose preference for sampling is well known...
...leave the GOP controlling only 5 states worth 60 districts...
...Should Republican James Talent win in Missouri, he could veto a partisan plan hatched by the Democratic lower house and senate...
...Danger looms for the GOP in several states...
...Doing so could cost the Democrats the House for the next decade...
...in Maine it needs to pick up four...
...Forced to choose, a smart Republican Party will be better off losing the House in 2ooo but winning strength in state legislatures, which will permit redistricting that ensures a GOP House from zoo 3 through 2o11...
...George W. Bush or Albert Gore will make up to three Supreme Court appointments, appoint the Cabinet, select an attorney general who will either continue or end Janet Reno's politicization of the Department of Justice, and wield the veto...
...In fear that the most popular and wellknown congressman in the key electoral area between Chicago and Pittsburgh may endorse Bush, the Clinton Justice Department in another vengefu] move has announced plans to resurrect 2o-yearold corruption charges against Traficant...
...Someone in the Republican Party has his eye on the ball...
...But win, lose, or draw, the 435 House seats won on November 7 will again be up for grabs on November 5, 2oo2...
...T here']l be three elections on November 7. The first will decide the presidency for the next four years...
...Republicans have argued for a constitutionally mandated "enumeration" or "actual count" of the people in each state...
...They will determine which party enjoys real control of the House for the next decade-as opposed to the next two years...
...Meanwhile, the GOP appears to be a shoo-in in three Democratic districts...
...The Republican Party had unfettered control only in Utah and New Hampshire, with a grand total of 5 House seats...
...The presidential winner in 2000 will probably be re-elected in 2004 . The second election is for control of the House of Representatives from January zoo1 to January 2003...
...Mississippi and Oklahoma will each lose one...
...Depending on who is elected governor and state legislator could mean the difference of 2o congressional seats in 2002...
...It's safe to say, the Democrats will need a net gain of ten seats to win back the House...
...Each state has its own rules for redistricting: Most allow the state legislature to draw the lines for state legislature and Congress alike...
Vol. 33 • September 2000 • No. 7
