The Campaign Spectator: The Déjà Vu Election
Matus, Victorino
r i l E CAMPAIGN SPECTATOI by Victorino Matus The Ddjh Vu Election History is repeating itself in New Jersey. T he race for New Jersey's open Senate seat goes like this: The Republican...
...Sound familiar...
...And again in 1994...
...You're paying for ad time in the New York and Philadelphia markets so two-thirds of your money is wasted," said CliffZukin, a professor of public policy at Rutgers Universi~" and director of the Newark Star Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgets poll...
...It will be up to him to convince McConnell that there could be nothing worse than a Senator Jon S. Corzine...
...Senate having the authority to spend our money...
...According to Larry Weitzner, a veteran Republican strategist for numerous New Jersey campaigns, "The important factor...
...In 1975 he moved to New Jersey and joined Goldman Sachs, 58 S ep t e m b e r ~ o o o " The American Spectator and by 198o became a general partner...
...He didn't serve in Vietnam, but did rise to the rank of sergeant in the Marine Corps Reserve...
...He is nothing more than a liberal guy with a beard-- and not too many people like that get elected from New Jersey...
...His Democratic opponent has never been elected to public office, made millions of dollars as a bond trader in the 198o's , embraces big govermnent, and is currently spending his own personal fortune to win the election...
...Now it's the congressman who must work to increase his name awareness, no easy task for someone strapped for cash...
...The cost to expand Medicare has been estimated to run about $7 ~ billion...
...Like Lautenberg, Corzine started with little recognition...
...He won a primary against a flawed candidate...
...That they did, ex~avagantly so...
...His opponent, Millicent Fenwick, had everything going for her...
...Thus the more obvious strategy for Franks is to attack the Corzine platformwhich he's now starting to do...
...Franks's advisers insist $84o-$1o million should suffice...
...His late father was part farmer, part insurance salesman, and all Republican...
...Even the New York Times estimated the cost for implementing his universal health care at about $30 billion...
...Polls also show most New Jerseyans consider themselves politically moderate...
...Franks will also be hardpressed to find instances of Corzine living luxuriously...
...He takes pride in the hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in new capital he brought to his state through Goldman Sachs...
...His mother was a teacher and is still a Republican...
...Then he won again in 1988...
...As his campaign manager, Charles Smith, told me, "Corzine's vision for America is nothing more than a series of feel-good programs that he has no idea how to pay for...
...The American Spectator _9 S ep t e m b e r 2 o o o 59...
...Shouldn't they be equally suspicious this time around...
...Can he possibly compete...
...4 million...
...E asier said than done...
...Interestingly, a Newark Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rntgers poll showed that a majority of New Jersey voters aren't bothered by Corzine's spending $35 million of his own money...
...he is dodging debates now...
...By contrast, Franks's goal is to raise roughly $1o million for the entire general election...
...It will require much time and energy for Franks to delineate the differences that do exist between him and his opponent, especially on fiscal policy...
...For good reason, Franks will try to make New Jersey voters wary of such Clintonspeak...
...Yet seven months later Corzine defeated Florio by 58-42 percent...
...I want to go to the Senate to set high expectations and achieve bold progress," he says on his homepage (www.votecorzine.org...
...Many are prochoice and pro-gun control, and many favor the death penalty...
...In a Gannett poll, 61 percent of likely voters favor Corzine's plan for national health insurance...
...Where will Franks get the money...
...In the midst of the Reagan Revolution, he was an ultraliberal who believed passionately in big government...
...He also supports gay marriage (which Franks opposes--he supports gay adoption instead...
...Nor is he an incumbent...
...Republican Michael Huffington's $3 ~ million couldn't trump Dianne Feinstein's $14...
...is an adequate amount to communicate your message...
...Franks warns that if Corzine spent so much on his primary, imagine what it would mean having "Jon Corzine sitting in the U.S...
...I suspect this is the reason he dodged debates in the primary and why Corzine's profile would be a Republican dream come true---if only he were a Republican...
...He is, instead, a firm believer in big government and is reliably pro-labor...
...She had the experience--she was a Republican congresswoman--he did not...
...The situation may appear desperate for Franks, but it's not yet a done deal for Corzine...
...Since there are only so many dollars he can collect from New Jersey Republicans, he'll have to hope Mitch McConnell, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, will throw some his way--which isn't likely...
...Unfortunately, polling on these issues has been mixed...
...Corzine's people insist there are ways to finance all this without gargantuan tax hikes, such as through the nationwide tobacco settlement...
...In 198z , little-known multimillionaire Frank Lautenberg, a cofounder of Automatic Data Processing (roughly lO percent of all private sector jobs in the U.S...
...But the same poll also showed that 7 ~ percent support Franks's plan to allow individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes in the stock market, while 62 percent opposed Corzine's proposal to let government do the investing...
...With zero political experience, Corzine has been running 12 to 20 points ahead of his Republican opponent, Rep...
...Both Corzine and Franks fall in line with most of these views, except that Corzine is opposed to the death penalty...
...have their payrolls processed by ADP), ran as the Democratic candidate for New Jersey's open Senate seat...
...On the other hand, Zukin told me, "Jon Corzine probably has great name recognition in three states...
...Now he's stepping down, though it's almost as if he were running for a fourth term--in the form of the Democratic Senate candidate Jon S. Corzine, the former chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs who is estimated to be worth $4o0 million...
...Corzine's profile would be a Republican dream come true, if only he were a Republican...
...He is a trustee of the Progressive Policy Institute, hailing Adlai Stevenson and Hubert Humphrey as his heroes--as George Will put it, "think of Humphrey frolicking with a trillion-dollar surplus," and you have Jon Corzine...
...He grew up on a farm in central Illinois...
...Corzine, who spent $35 million on the primary alone, is prepared to spend "as much as it takes" the rest of the way, his spokesman says...
...Many find that preferable to a candidate's being beholden to special interests...
...A Gannett pro-primary poI1 last November showed ex-Governor Jim Florio with 31 percent support, exDemocratic state Chairman Tom Byrne witl~ 13 percent, and Corzine a distant third with only 6 percent...
...The question is whether $1o million the Weekly Standard...
...In fact, he lives not far from Franks--and the two attend the same church...
...Lautenberg defeated Fenwick 51-48 percent...
...But Bob Franks is no John Warner or Dianne Feinstein...
...They also think they can neutralize Franks's attacks...
...There's nothing fishy about Corzine's past...
...And he spent $5 million of his own personal fortune (a big deal in those days) on his campaign...
...Universal education...
...Corzine graduated Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Illinois and earned his MBA at the University of Chicago...
...He did it by spending $35 million of his own money, mostly on television and radio commercials and get-out-the-vote drives aimed to raise his name recognition...
...Bob Franks...
...Senate Republicans, especially incumbents, face so many trouble spots--from Michigan to Missouri to Delaware to Minnesota, not to mention New York--that McConnell may see spending in New Jersey as fruitless as spending in California for Tom Campbell against Dianne Feinstein...
...His financial disadvantage means hours on the phone raising his targeted $1o million, not to mention countless dinners and luncheons and trips around the country in an effort to convince donors that the race is real and the Republican curse in New Jersey is coming to an end...
...For many residents of the Garden State, it should...
...On top of that, the costs of airing commercials will soar this summer and fall, as New Jersey" candidates compete for time on New York's airwaves against the mosttalked-about Senate race in the country between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rick Lazio...
...Franks should have a field day attacking these proposals...
...Lautenberg had served on the board of the New York and New Jersey Port Authorib, but had never been elected to public office...
...The prognosticators who are intimidated by Corzine's money are making a big mistake," Larry Weitzner said...
...That is, if he can find time at all...
...John Warner's $5.8 million...
...Another $55 billion...
...is not Corzine's money, but rather Franks's VICTORINO MATUS is an associate editor at money...
...T he race for New Jersey's open Senate seat goes like this: The Republican candidate is a four-term congressman with extensive experience in New Jersey politics-he served 13 years in the State Assembly and two terms as GOP chairman...
...As Corzine's media spokesman Tom Shea explained, "Franks can manufacture all the numbers he wants, but Jon will get his message out and voters will see his record of fiscal responsibility as CEO of Goldman Sachs...
...Franks could win by painting himself towards the middle of the electorate," Cliff Zukin said, "but only if he can afford the paintbrush and the paint...
...In a state where the GOP hasn't won a Senate seat since Clifford Case in 1972 , Franks may be sacrificed in the struggle to defeat greater foes...
...He sponsors eight parochial schools, raises fimds for the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, and even pays the tuition for the children of a neighbor who is suffering from cancer...
...It appears Corzine spent 19941Mng in a cave, unaware of the massive defeat of Hillary Clinton's health care reform...
...Fourteen years later he became that company's chairman and CEO...
...He then lists his objectives: universal health care, universal long-term care, universal quality public education, universal gun registration and licensing, and universal access and opportunity (i.e., affirmative action...
...But some political analysts think Franks needs at least $1z-to-$15 million, money that will quickly evaporate in television and radio spots...
...Voters have not forgotten Governor Florio's $2.8 billion post-election tax hike after he ran saying he saw no need to raise taxes...
...In New Jersey it's looking like 1982 all over again...
...Franks may also find solace in the history of Senate candidates who have spent millions of their own money and lost: Virginia Democrat Mark Warner spent $11.6 million against Sen...
Vol. 33 • September 2000 • No. 7
