Politics: Holding on to Congress
Norquist, Grover G.
by Grover G. Norquist Holding on to Congress The case for GOP optimism is not far-fetched. J anuary brought good news for Republicans preparing for the November 7 general election. On January...
...A CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll released January 19 showed Republicans winning the generic ballot by 48-4 2 percent...
...Spence Abraham...
...In 1996 and 1998, the Democrats regained most of these losses...
...January brought cheerful polling news for Republicans from voters asked whether they plan to back a Republican or Democrat for Congress...
...Bob Kerrey announced that he would not mn for a third term in November...
...A top target will be Jim Maloney of Connecticut, who barely won re-election in 1998 and is being challenged again by Mark Nielsen, an attractive candidate who enjoys full Republican backing...
...Republicans should hold the Senate and the House on their own...
...West Virginia's second district, which Bob Wise is vacating, wouldn't normally raise Republican hopes, but the Republican candidate is Shelly Moore Capito, daughter of the former govemor...
...A Fox News poll of January 14 gave Republicans a 42-3 6 percent lead...
...New Jersey's Rush Holt represents the formerly Republican district once held by Dick Zimmer and then Mike Pappas...
...a united one should win...
...The GOP has a good shot at Ron Klink's Pittsburgh seat, where Republican state Senator Melissa Hart was off and running even before Klink left to run for Rick Santomm's Senate seat...
...These include not only the competitive open seats, but incumbentheld seats that have see-sawed between the parties over the past decade...
...Impeachment manager James Rogan has raised $3 million and is running stronger in his California district than he did for his narrow victory in 1998...
...But the danger for Democrats is a Bush landslideeven half the size of present polling--that would leave Congress in Republican hands for another generation...
...Democrats took back eight seats in 1996 and another five in 1998...
...In an average year, Republicans might pick up ten seats from the list of vulnerable Democrats...
...Kerrey joins New York's Daniel Patrick Moynihan, New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg, and Nevada's Richard Bryan as retiring Democrats who would likely have held their seats had they run for re-election...
...One GOP concem is the open seat in Florida, where Connie Mack is retiring after three terms...
...This Republican district will almost certainly return to the GOE Also on' Long Island, party switcher Michael Forbes has been targeted for extinetion by Republican Party leader Felix Grucci...
...A truly bad year will see them lose two or three seatsand still maintain their majority...
...But their hopes that Republicans will be punished for voting for impeachment are fading fast...
...Jim Florio, who was defeated in 1993 after imposing the largest tax hike in his state's history, and former Goldman Sachs co-chairman Jon Corzine, who brings his own money if not name, I.D., or organization to the race...
...stone, was challenged by Tom Bordonaro, who thanks to Gary Bauer's independent ads saw his campaign defined as abortionobsessed...
...Democrats claim to see 28 vulnerable Republican incumbents...
...Goode has one of the more conservative voting records in Congress, winning an 84 percent rating from the American Conservative Union in 1997 and 83 percent in 1998...
...It gave Bill Clinton a 16-point victory in 1992 and an 18point margin in 1996...
...As for specific candidates, Bush defeated A1 Gore by 51-38 and Bill Bradley by 49-37 percent...
...To be sure, some Republicans--such as Michael Patrick Flanagan, who defeated Dan Rostenkowski in Chicago--won fluke victories in the 1994 GOP landslide...
...A strong GOP year will have Republicans gain three or four Senate seats...
...In 1998, this Republican district almost elected Greg Becker, who'd been ignored by the national and state party...
...Zimmer and Pappas are both running in the GOP primary to challenge Holt...
...Bordonaro won the primary but lost the general...
...Bemie Sanders decided not to challenge him...
...The GOP candidate is Mike Rogers, the state senate floor leader who has raised more than $6o0,00o...
...The GOP, however, has a top tier candidate in Assemblyman Jim Cunneen, a pro-technology moderate in the mold of Campbell whose assembly district covers 61 percent of the congressional district...
...Anxiety over the late John Chafee's Rhode Island seat has given way to confidence now that Chafee's son Lincoln, who was appointed to succeed his father, is polling strongly...
...John Ensign, who in x998 narrowly lost his Senate bid to Harry Reid, is polling ahead of wealthy trial lawyer Edward M. Bernstein...
...The Bipartisan Battleground survey found Republicans ahead 39-3 6 percent...
...A divided party could and did lose the district...
...After all, they survived the Clinton win in 1996...
...Among the latter is retiring Ways and Means Chairman Bill Archer's district, which gave Dole a 38-point margin in 1996...
...It bodes well for Republican incumbents that voters approve their own member of Congress by 65-2o...
...One of Gore's challenges is that, while Clinton has a 59 percent approval rating, fully 65 percent of voters disapprove of the president personally and are unexcited about a third Clinton term...
...Concern about Jim ]effords's Vermont seat eased when socialist Rep...
...Republican voters are also more enthusiastic about their team: Eighty-five percent plan to vote for a Republican for Congress, verses 7 6 percent of Democrats who say they'll vote for a Democrat...
...The GOP will concenlrate on defeating the one- to two-dozen Democrats currently holding those seats...
...In arguing why they will hold the House, Republicans point to 1994: In scoring this great victory they were simply capturing conservative districts that Democrats had held on to by disguising their liberalism and exploiting the powers of incumbency...
...Republicans are also optimistic about Dick Chrysler's old district in Michigan, which Democrat Debbie Stabenow won in 1996 but is now vacating to challenge Sen...
...Michael Forbes's defection last year gave them yet another seat...
...Of the remaining open seats, Democrats concede that Republicans will pick up Owen Pickett's Virginia district...
...Without incumbency Democrats ceased to be competitive in many of these districts...
...Forbes's new friends don't like his anti-abortion, pro-gun voting record, and his old friends will never forget his throwing in with Clinton and the Democrats for personal advantage...
...The Battleground survey found Republicans winning the generic presidential ballot by x 4 points...
...If the pattern holds, they could win the six seats they need...
...Carolyn McCarthy, whose husband was killed by a deranged shooter on the Long Island line, defeated Dan Frisa in 1996 in a bizarre set of circumstances that saw Frisa disappear toward the end of the race...
...Eighty-six percent of Republicans supported Bush, but only 55 percent of Democrats supported Gore...
...Of the 22 Republican open seats, nine are up in the air hut 13 remain safe...
...They're likely to win the open seats in New York, Nevada, and Nebraska and are polling ahead in Virginia, where popular former governor George Allen is challenging incumbent Chuck Robb...
...They thought they'd need a net gain of five seats to re-capture control...
...What's more, unlike the Senate, House retirements hurt GOP chances...
...Ohio's Bob Ney and Louisiana's Richard Baker are now running unopposed...
...Goode voted for three counts of impeachment and opposed Bill Clinton 74 percent of the time in 1998 . He will almost certainly win re-election...
...1994 majority of 236-198...
...Nebraska Attorney General Don Stenberg is already campaigning for the GOP nomination...
...In 1998, the consensus GOP candidate, Brooks FireIn an average year the GOP picks up 10 seats...
...The Battleground survey brought other good news...
...As of January, zz Republican congressmen were retiring, but only six Democrats...
...Republicans led by ten percent among married voters, 11 percent among parents with children at home, 2 7 percent among fathers, 11 percent in veteran households, and nine percent with Internet users...
...In Nevada, former Rep...
...W r hile elections will be held in all 435 House districts, the real focus this fall will be on 4 ~ to 5 ~ seats...
...Either Democrat will get a tough race from the Republican nominee...
...Moreover, Republican Whip Tom DeLay's Retain Our Majority Project, which saw his 4 ~ whips contribute $2,ooo each to ten endangered incumbents, has proved effective...
...In a Bush landslide it picks up 20...
...California's 22nd district was solidly Republican for years, represented by Robert Lagomarsino and Michael Huffington...
...Goode's defection hurts the Democrats' chances to win back the House...
...The other three will offer real contests...
...Becket is running again, but this time with the full attention and support of the Republican Party...
...She has $28o,o0o in the bank and will face the winner of a bitter Democratic primary...
...Suddenly Republicans have an open Senate seat they could win...
...On January 24, Virgil Goode, the Democratic congressman from the fifth district in southern Virginia tobacco country, announced that he was leaving his party to run as an independent...
...And in New Jersey Democrats will choose between former Gov...
...On paper, the most likely Democratic pickup is Califor54 Marc h 2 o o o _9 The American Spectator nia's fifteenth district, which Tom Campbell is leaving to run for the Senate...
...This time, likely GOP nominee Phill Kline will unite his party and probably win...
...The disparity, however, may not hurt Republicans as much as Democrats would wish...
...But this year, Republicans say, there are far fewer Republicans holding Democratic-trending districts than Democrats occupying seats that should be Republican...
...Republicans currently hold a 55-45 majority in the Senate...
...In a Bush landslide the total could double...
...Instead, New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is consistently polling ten points ahead of Hillary Clinton and has already raised $12 million...
...Of the six Democratic open seats, only two are safe: Bill Clay's Missouri district, where Clinton beat Dole in x996 , 74 percent to zo percent, and Robert Weygand's Rhode Island district, which voted 59-28 for Clinton over Dole...
...Januaiy's polling numbers suggest strong presidential coattails for November...
...based on the success Democrats have had GROVER G. NORQtrIST is president of chipping away at the Republicans' postAmericans for Tax Reform...
...This year Mike Stoker is the consensus candidate, winning the support of Lagomarsino, Firestone, and Bordonaro...
...The case for Democratic optimism is...
...The American Spectator _9 Marc h 2 o o o 55...
...New York's Jack Quinn, who risked Clinton's wrath in switching to vote for impeachment, now faces no serious challenger...
...Now they'll need a net of six, because Goode has announced he will organize with the Republicans...
...Republicans also worry about incumbents Bill Roth of Delaware, Rod Grams of Minnesota, Spencer Abraham of Michigan, Rick Santomm of Pennsylvania, and John Ashcroft of Missouri...
...In Kansas, Vince Snowbarger lost his seat in 1998 to Dennis Moore after neglecting to raise campaign funds and dividing the Republican base...
...In New York's fourth district, Democratic Rep...
...The GOP Congress has the highest approval rating in years: 46-42 percent...
...On January 20 Nebraska Democratic Sen...
Vol. 33 • March 2000 • No. 2
