Politics: What No One Expected
Norquist, Grover G.
POLITICS by Grover G. Norquist What No One Expected I t wasn't supposed to work out this way. One year ago the conventional wisdom was that Republicans would now be locked in a bitter and...
...was $513,000 in debt...
...This dominance has the media focusing on Bush and ignoring his competitors...
...Many of these men see Bush as their ticket to the vice presidency or the cabinet...
...He certainly has his history right: Taft vs...
...They are not raising millions and working hard merely to help the party and Bush...
...Too much is at stake...
...Buchanan vs...
...In June, Gore was ahead 62-23...
...In short, on June 30 George Bush held Sao million in cash while his rivals—Steve Forbes excepted—had a total of $2.3 million in the bank...
...Alexander by 2 governors, four House members, and two senators...
...Bush in 1992...
...As of June 30, Al Gore, the sitting vice president, had raised $17.5 million and had $9.2 million cash on hand...
...In 1988, George Bush won the presidency because Americans wanted to elect Ronald Reagan to a third term...
...Nixon vs...
...It became a "pre-fabricated" campaign that drew on existing organizations in the states...
...He'll keep his seniority and committee assignments in the Senate, though he intends to run for the presidency on the ticket of Howard Phillips's Taxpayer Party, which has ballot status in ten states...
...First, he won the "governors' primary...
...When Quayle explained why he hopes to emerge as the conservative candidate next year, he said Republican primary campaigns historically come down to a fight between a conservative and an establishment candidate...
...Now instead of standing astride a divided field of Bill Bradley, Dick Gephardt, Paul Wellstone, Bob Kerrey, John Kerry, and Jesse Jackson, Gore is having to go one on one with Bill Bradley, the sole "not-Gore" candidate...
...He will have to move left—walking away from the triangulation/New Democrat strategy that worked for Clinton...
...It'll also be important to convey that the ideas and issues that drove these candidates to run will be taken seriously...
...In 2000, Al Gore may well lose the presidency because Americans do not want to vote for a third term for Bill Clinton...
...Eisenhower in 1952...
...Ford in 1976...
...By contrast, John McCain raised $4.3 million and had $2.6 million cash on hand (and owed $643,000...
...Lamar Alexander raised $2.5 million but was $128,000 in debt...
...The governors' endorsement of George W. involves more than diplomatic nicety...
...As for dominance in the polls, a July 16 CNN poll of Republican voters found Bush at 57 percent, Dole at 13, John McCain at 6, Quayle at 5, Forbes at 4, Buchanan at 4, Orrin Hatch at 2, Bauer at 2, and Lamar Alexander at 1. Bush has been endorsed by 21 of the GOP's governors, 136 House members, and 19 senators...
...To soothe labor unions, Gore has dropped his support for free trade in all but talk...
...It's an old story: The media always give favorable coverage to any self-destructing Republican who dumps on his party...
...Dole vs...
...The GOP's thin congressional advantage (222-211, with one independent and one open seat) could widen if the party fields a strong presidential candidate...
...Enlightened self-interest by ambitious and successful governors is the "secret ingredient" explaining George W. Bush's "surprising" financial prowess...
...George W. Bush's dominance is measured in four ways: money raised, cash on hand, polling numbers, and the endorsement of elected Republicans...
...But other GOP candidates could be tempted by the fifteen minutes of fame Smith received on "Larry King Live" and try to win similar attention...
...They usually controlthe party organization in their respective states, and they've been vetted through at least one statewide election for signs of a political glass jaw or "character" problems...
...Two years ago a number of Republican governors were seen as presidential possibilities: John Engler of Michigan, Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, George Pataki of New York, Frank Keating of Oklahoma, and Pete Wilson of California...
...The polls may continue to shift against Gore as Bradley is doing very well in the contest for campaign cash and media attention...
...Bush raised $37 million and had $3o million after expenses...
...He will have to spend heavily to win his own primary...
...Forbes by one governor and two House members...
...Gary Bauer raised $3.4 million and GROVER G. NORQUIST is president of Americans for Tax Reform...
...That's why Nixon, Reagan (by then an ex-governor), Bush, and Dole all found they had to run more than once...
...Dole by six House members...
...The president who names their replacements will tilt the court right or left for a generation...
...Pat Buchanan raised $2.4 million and had $225,000 cash on hand...
...Dan Quayle raised $3.8 million, but he'd spent S3.3 million and owed another $628,000 for a net debt of $500,000...
...But this primary campaign is different...
...Once the establishment press stops listening to a second- or third-tier candidate it becomes well nigh impossible for him to get back into the limelight—unless he can win a primary, which because of the media blackout is even more unlikely...
...Reagan's ultimate victory was to transform the party to the point that establishment Republicans are conservative Republicans...
...Triangulation was a winning strategy for Clinton but a loser for his party...
...Instead, five months before the February 9 New Hampshire primary, the opposite has happened...
...It takes longer for non-governors running for the first time to find supporters in each state and build a campaign and finance organization...
...Matching Bradley, Gore has called for registration of all guns, a position Bill Clinton was wise enough to shun as a candidate...
...Like Oscar Wilde's Dorian Gray, Clinton remains outwardly untouched by his corrupt character, but the ugliness of his sins is transferred to the Democratic Party and his vice president Al Gore...
...Governors are immediately serious candidates because they have the ability to raise millions from their states' donor bases...
...Yet he's hard pressed by a senator who almost lost his last re-election in 1990 to the then-unknown Christie Todd Whitman...
...Steve Forbes, who raised $9.5 million, was $221,000 in debt, but he has made it clear that he will again draw against his own personal wealth as he did in 1996...
...One year ago the conventional wisdom was that Republicans would now be locked in a bitter and divisive multi-candidate primary while Democrats prepared to crown Vice President Gore as their unchallenged nominee...
...The American Spectator • September 1999 57...
...Reagan vs...
...Rockefeller in 1960 and again in 1968...
...A second reason for Bush's strength is the lack of an ideological divide in the modern Republican Party...
...They dispense patronage and government contracts...
...Now Gore is in the position Dole was in 1996...
...By contrast, Quayle has been endorsed by 6 House members and one senator...
...Taft vs...
...When Bush emerged as the only GOP governor to run for the presidency, he quickly gained the backing of most other governors—and their networks of donors, activists, and party regulars...
...Serious conservatives who care about the court and about keeping the House and Senate under GOP control have little reason to play up stylistic or other minor differences with Bush...
...0 n the Democratic side, Al Gore did himself no favors with his initial strategy of driving out each potential competitor...
...What explains it...
...Elizabeth Dole raised $3.5 million and had $1.2 million cash on hand...
...When it nominates the non-conservative—Ford in 1976, Bush in 1992, Dole in 1996 — it loses...
...As Quayle argued, when the party nominates the conservative Why is George W. Bush up and Al Gore down...
...And Bradley has already pushed Gore far to the left of where he wanted to be...
...Bush's unprecedented lead derives from three factors...
...Reagan vs...
...George Bush, the establishment candidate, is running as a Reagan Republican: pro-life, anti-tax, pro-school choice, pro-death penalty, pro-business, "good on guns...
...Gore commands all the power levers of the Democratic Party: the big city machines, the labor unions, the trial lawyers' money, the Clinton White House...
...New Hampshire's Bob Smith was so frustrated by his inability to gain traction that he announced he was leaving the Republican Party—sort of...
...56 September 19 9 9 • The American Spectator Nixon in 1968, Reagan in 198o — it wins...
...Meanwhile, three Supreme Court justices are nearing retirement...
...The Republican leadership understands that the party is strengthened if other candidates leave as graciously (and respected) as John Kasich did, standing next to George Bush, exchanging compliments, and well positioned to be the next director of the Office of Management and Budget...
...Dewey in 1948...
...It's in the interest of the Republican Party to find something valuable for every other GOP presidential candidate —not "lovely parting gifts" for run-ners-up, but a real role in the party's structure and the next administration...
...Bush formally broke away from the Republican pack in early July, when the Federal Election Commission reported how much each campaign had raised in the first six months of this year, and, more importantly, how much cash each campaign still held...
...Bush in 1980...
...Bush's success has had its costs...
...Bill Bradley, a retired senator, had raised $11.7 million and had $7.4 million cash on hand...
...Forbes in 1996...
...Bush has given each governor a stake in his election...
...CNN's July 16 poll showed Gore leading Bradley 57-26 percent...
...Smith's departure isn't problematic by itself: He was running at 2 percent in his home state, and because he hasn't worked at party building his career is likely to end when his term expires in 2002...
...The third reason for Bush's commanding lead is concern over the future of the House and the Supreme Court...
Vol. 32 • September 1999 • No. 9
