Politics: Reagan's Children
Norquist, Grover G.
POL. TICS by Grover G. Norquist Reagan's Children here are more Republican voters T than there used to be. In the congressional elections of 1994, 1996, and 1998, GOP candidates won 53, 5o, and...
...An American who owns stock in one company or wealth in a house has a very particular, parochial interest...
...Americans earning more than $75,000 did not become more Republican...
...Forty-three percent say that becoming a millionaire by age 35 is one of their major goals...
...A third trend is simple demographics...
...It's the type of property owned that's affected Republican strength over the past twenty years, Nadler argues...
...As well as anyone, Al Gore knows that voters who escape Democrat-controlled cities tend to move toward the GOP...
...Nadler reports that today 76 million Americans, representing 43 percent of U.S...
...Over the past ten elections, union members have voted 63-37 percent in favor of Democrats...
...The poll showed that 48 percent of young men and women in the United Kingdom list owning their own business as one of their major goals...
...Politicians must keep this in mind as they debate cuts in the capital gains tax, just as they'll take note that more andmore investors are reading conservative periodicals: The Wall Street Journal became the highest daily circulation newspaper at 1.77 million in 1997...
...Fewer government workers means fewer Democrats...
...The growth of the investor class over the past 20 years has increased Republican Party identification by two percentage points and dropped Democratic Party identification by almost two points as well...
...workers belonged to a labor union...
...While there are no reliable figures on the party identification of the nation's criminal class, it's instructive that the Democrats are the ones making a push to allow prisoners and those on parole and probation to vote...
...There's a reason why Bill Clinton is always trying to hire another 100,000 police or teachers and Al Gore wants to establish a government bureaucracy to give us traffic reports...
...34.4 percent...
...Several trends help explain why there are more Republican votes in congressional races...
...Only one percent say they'd like to go to work in the civil service or the local government...
...It made sense that if more Americans owned shares of stock, then more AmerThere are more of them than you can possibly count...
...Ronald Reagan has already entered the history books as the man who brought down the Berlin Wall...
...56 May 1999 • The American Spectator icans would share the interests of the investor class—a desire for low taxes on capital, support for free trade, opposition to bigger government— that would translate into greater support for the GOP...
...In other words, every drop in labor union membership decreases the Democratic vote...
...with...
...By 1960 62 percent did...
...Luckily, the pollster Scott Rassmussen (who's also a founder of the ESPN sports channel) has studied this question and found that government employment swings party identification ten percent towards the Democrats...
...Nadler then compared the party identification of those who owned portfolios of S5,000 or more in stock against those who owned less or none...
...Owning shares of stock moved one's party identification 18 percentage points towards the Republicans—ten percent more Republican, 8 percent less Democrat...
...This is a 126-percent increase in share-holding over fifteen years...
...private employment might affect one's politics...
...But an American who owns shares in a mutual fund has a diversified portfolio whose interest tracks with the general economy...
...In Rassmussen's sample, 36.9 percent of Americans self-identified as Democrats and 31.6 percent as Republicans...
...A six-percent work force shift from union to non-union increases the Republican vote by 1.05 percent...
...A Peter Hart Research study found that 75 percent of investors check their investments once a month, 51 percent once a week, and 18 percent every day...
...But among those who owned $5,000 or more in stock, the breakdown was 37.9 percent Republican and 32.9 percent Democrat...
...In response to what's important to success in life, 7 percent say privileged background, and 72 percent say individual determination—this in a country once famous for its rigid class differences...
...If you own shares of General Motors you might favor protectionism against imported automobiles despite its damage to the general economy...
...Every other group did...
...Between 1983 and 1997 public sector workers grew in number from 15.6 million to 18.1 million, but the total number of employed Americans jumped from 88.2 million to 114.5 million...
...In 46 states people in prison cannot vote, and the number of criminals in prison has roughly doubled in the past twenty years...
...Non-union workers voted 55.5-45.5 for Republicans...
...In Britain, the Adam Smith Institute has just released a new poll of the "Millennial Generation" — those Britons turning 16-21 in the year 200o...
...Americans who turned 21 between 1932 and 1952, the twenty years of Democrat dominance under FDR and Truman, are now 68 to 88 years old...
...Owners of mutual funds have no such special interest apart from the rest of the economy...
...A related trend is the relative shrinkage of the government work force, which dropped from 17.7 percent of the total GROVER G. NORQUIST is president of Americans for Tax Reform...
...Among non-portfolio owners only 27 percent were Republican and 40.5 percent Democrat...
...The percentage of head of households under 35 years of age who own stock rose from 22 to 36 percent between 1989 and 1995...
...In 1983, 20.1 percent of U.S...
...Nadler divided Rassmussen's 6,400-person sample into 44 different groups and found Republican Party identification rose in 42 of the 44...
...An 11 percent reduction in the public sector work force will increase Republican voter identification by .19 percent...
...In the last twenty years the average Republican vote for Congress rose from 46.6 percent to 51.3 percent—an upward trend even though Reagan victories in 1980 and 1984 should have increased the Republican vote in congressional elections and 1996 was a Clinton victory that should have increased Democrat percentages...
...In the congressional elections of 1994, 1996, and 1998, GOP candidates won 53, 5o, and 51 percent of the vote, respectively...
...If America's establishment press were as colorful as the British tabloids, they would be known as "Reagan's Children...
...Forbes and Fortune are the ninth- and twelfth-place magazines in advertising revenue...
...By 1997 this percentage had dropped to 14.1 percent...
...The Great Depression-age cohort is passing away...
...Democrats have also tried to seize on other factors, such as the move by voters from cities to suburbs and rural areas...
...And in the debate over tax cuts, Republicans have introduced five different bills designed to expand Individual Retirement Accounts, 4olks, and other defined-contribution plans...
...Forward-thinking Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine allow prisoners to vote...
...During the Dukakis campaign of 1988 it was reported that murderers in Massachusetts's Walpole prison had formed their own "Lifers PAC...
...Investor's Business Daily hit 260,000 circulation...
...One year ago, this column reported on GOP governors and state legislators who want to increase the number of Americans who own stocks by allowing government workers to transfer their pension funds from traditional defined-benefit plans to 401k-like plans...
...Black Americans without stocks are 5 percent Republican...
...His national campaign against "suburban sprawl" is intended to keep his voters under the thumb of the urban Democrat machines...
...In 1980, 1982, and 1984, they won 48, 43, and 49 percent...
...But he is also the father to the new investor class that is changing American politics...
...But there's more to this political shift than simple wealth...
...The British press has dubbed them "Thatcher's Children...
...Direct ownership of individual stocks rose only 1.5 percent from 1989 to 1995, while direct ownership of mutual funds increased 149 percent...
...Government employees without, 23 percent...
...Americans earning less than $20,000 are 22 percent Republican when they do not own stocks and 31.6 when they do...
...Conversely, those Americans whose first impression of politics was Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan are now between 32 and 44 years of age...
...Rassmussen polled 6,400 Americans and found that 39.9 percent owned stock...
...by 1980 it was 64.4 percent, and by 1990 64.2 percent...
...Americans have been owning wealth in their homes for 100 years without shifting party identification...
...Unlike their elders who grew up under Labour socialism, this cohort was raised under Margaret Thatcher, at a time when privatization, lower taxes, and entrepreneurship became British values...
...Women without stocks are 26 percent Republican...
...B ut there's a bigger reason for this Republican trend...
...In 1900, 46.5 percent of Americans owned homes...
...There was much more to this political change than older, wealthier, whiter, and largely male citizens building up their stock portfolios...
...Now we know why Democratic politicians never stop trying to force more Americans into union membership...
...America's investor class is not passive...
...Retired Americans without shares are 22.6 percent Republican but 40.6 when they own shares...
...This common-sense intuition is confirmed in a new Cato Institute study by Richard Nadler based on polling data compiled by Scott Rassmussen...
...Americans are also investing younger...
...One is the decline in labor union membership as a percentage of the voting population...
...those with, 36.4 percent...
...those with are 20.6...
...Unmar44 Owning stock moves one's party identification 18 percentage points towards the GOP ried Americans jump from 23 percent Republican to 32.6 when they become share owners...
...households, own stocks or stock mutual funds...
...Pressure to abolish the death tax will grow as more younger Americans will actively oppose having their estates looted by Dick Gephardt's politics of envy...
...Since then, Republicans have begun pushing for Social Security reform to allow every working American to set up an IRA-like Personal Savings Account...
...work force in 1983 to 15.8 percent in 1997 — a decline of nearly ii percent...
...Democrats have focused on a fourth factor...
...With each passing year there are two million fewer Americans whose first impression of politics was "Republican Party = Hoover = Depression...
...The New York Times loves to cite 115 demographic variables to explain voting patterns, but never mentions how public vs...
...The American Spectator • May 1999 57...
Vol. 32 • May 1999 • No. 5
