The Campaign Spectator: Solid Senate

...In 1998, both Republican and Democratic incumbents increased their winning percentages over their prior races...

...In Nevada, where Democrat Richard Bryan is leaving office, there's a strong Republican candidate, former Congressman John Ensign, ready to take his place...

...But it's not going to happen...

...But the freshman class, thought to be in grave danger, is actually in pretty good shape...

...The American Spectator October 1999 47...

...The conventional wisdom is that Ensign will finally make it to the Senate...

...But he's facing the first lady's celebrity, media popularity, and White House clout, which could prove insurmountable...

...With critical swing voters, impeachment looks like a non-issue...

...But it doesn't make things any easier for them...

...But that is not the way things have turned out...

...Start with Charles Robb, the Virginia senator who's facing a strong challenge from former Governor George Allen...

...Democratic senators in Nevada, New Jersey, and New York are retiring, and the party might find itself losing two—or perhaps all three—of their seats...

...In New Jersey, where Frank Lautenberg is retiring, Governor Christie Whitman had been running well ahead of her two potential rivals, former Governor Jim Florio and Wall Street multi-millionaire Jon Corzine...

...First of all, don't look for too many incumbents to go down...

...The city's public assistance rolls have shrunk from 1.1 million in 1993 to 700,000 last year...

...Although Republicans have many things to worry about next year, the Senate is not one of them...

...Everybody knows what's happening in New York...

...Of course, none of this is likely to stop the appearance of articles and commentary predicting a grave future for Republicans...

...If they were viewed as vulnerable, it seems likely that substantial opponents would have arisen to challenge them...

...Abraham's problems are classic first-term: He simply hasn't made much of an impression on the voters...

...The Post suggested that a number of them might never see a second term, meaning that the 55-45 Republican majority in the Senate might shrink or even disappear altogether...

...The story highlighted the travails of the Senate's freshman class, those Republicans who won office in the GOP landslide of 1994 and are up for reelection next year...

...Although the issue might pop up in a few places, like former House manager Bill McCollum's race for the Senate in Florida, Faucheux says it will likely only resonate with the hard-core wings of both parties who would vote for their candidate under any circumstances...

...Not exactly what Robert Torricelli has been predicting...

...This time Ensign's likely opponent will be the remarkably named state Attorney General Frankie Sue Del Papa, who is not thought to be a terribly strong candidate...

...But Robb is the Democrats' only truly imperiled incumbent...

...It becomes very hard for them to explain why they were so incensed they wanted to remove the president from office," Torricelli said last February...

...They are increasingly in a situation where they cannot extricate themselves or explain themselves...

...Don't be...

...Viewed on its own, Giuliani's record looks unbeatable...

...B y the way, one word you don't hear in all the analysis of Senate 2000 is "impeachment...

...There are always seven or eight incumbents who look like they're in big trouble at this stage of the game, but usually only two or three of them actually lose," says Ron Faucheux, editor of Campaigns &Elections magazine...

...Beyond Carnahan and Stabenow, the paucity of strong Democratic candidates is an indication that some Republicans who might otherwise be in marginal shape are actually in fairly solid positions...

...There's a clear contrast between Carnahan's liberalism and Ashcroft's conservatism, which means their fight is expected to be one of the more ideologically charged of the entire zoo() campaign...

...Put those two trends together, and it seems likely the race will be a wash...

...New York, New Jersey, and Nevada could flip from Democratic to Republican, but Florida and Rhode Island could flip from Republican to Democrat...

...Allen has also raised more than twice as much money as Robb and is easily more popular...

...The real bad news is the situation in what are now referred to as the "N states...

...Except that there aren't any...

...As bad as that was for the party, it gives Democrats the consolation of not having Worried about GOP prospects in the Senate...

...Focusing on Republican freshmen who appear to be in trouble creates an inaccurate impression of impending GOP losses because it overlooks the fact that Democrats have an endangered list of their own...

...And during the same period 331,400 jobs were created...

...Several Democratic senators are retiring, leaving BYRON YORK is an investigative writer for TAS...

...The real action, Faucheux predicts, will come as a result of the retirements...

...While GOP strategists have to worry about Ashcroft and Abraham, they can take comfort in knowing that the high-quality opponents in those races are not characteristic of Democratic challengers as a whole...

...Next year's election, the first time Senate members of the Class of '94 will face the voters, will undoubtedly provide the occasion for many more...

...A majority of them— Ohio's Mike DeWine, Maine's Olympia Snowe, Wyoming's Craig Thomas, Arizona's Jon Kyl, and Tennessee's Bill Frist — look to be headed for easy re-election...

...That those opponents have not materialized is a clear problem for the Democrats, a problem which compounds itself as the weeks pass...

...His administration has brought the city's murder rate from 1,946 in 1993, the final year of Democratic predecessor David Dinkins,44 How are the Democratic freshmen doing...

...Usually when Republican incumbents' percentages go up, the Democrats' percentages go down, and vice-versa...

...In 1998, three lost, but all of them—Carol Moseley-Braun, Alfonse D'Amato, and Lauch Fairclothwere unusually divisive figures...

...The 1994 election set off a five-year wave of press reports examining real and imagined weaknesses of GOP candidates and the effect that real and imagined divisions within the party would have on the Republican majority...

...S o what's the bottom line...

...The problem for Democrats is that, unlike 1994, historical forces are just not lining up for any significant change...

...The most recent poll, taken last March, showed Ashcroft leading by 45-37 percent...

...But don't bet on it...

...Some might even be at least partly accurate...

...Barone points to a frequently overlooked statistic to underscore his point...

...That's quite a change from just a few months ago, when Democrats predicted an angry public would take its revenge on Republicans for daring to impeach Bill Clinton...

...One poll over the summer showed Allen leading by 49-38 percent, a truly awful position for a two-term senator heading into reelection...

...Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton have been going back and forth in the polls in a race that promises to be so volatile that no one can predict its outcome...

...But her recent decision not to run has thrown the race into confusion, and what looked like a real winning possibility for the GOP is now a question mark...

...T hat's not to say the GOP doesn't have a few problems...

...I believe our chances of regaining the Senate are actually quite good...

...as of now, Robb appears to be in deep trouble...

...On top of that, he's facing a solid opponent in moderate Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow...

...And they do have one big advantage: More Republicans are facing re-election than Democrats...

...not a single Democrat won a first term in the Senate in 1994...

...I think most voters feel like it's old news and they're not particularly interested in it...

...In 1996, just one incumbent senator lost...

...46 October 19 99 • The American Spectator any candidates suffering from the first-term maladies plaguing Spencer Abraham...

...It's a scenario to warm the hearts of Democrats who are already optimistic about the prospect of re-taking the House of Representatives...

...We haven't seen that in the last 5o years," Barone says...

...We only need to gain five seats in the United States Senate for a Democratic majority and there are 19 Republicans facing re-election and only 14 Democrats...

...We're in a very pro-incumbent environment," says Michael Barone, author of the authoritative Almanac of American Politics...

...But that's not what's happening now...

...There aren't any...

...We had one of America's strongest pro-incumbent years in 1998, and that continues now...

...Finally, two others, Spencer Abraham of Michigan and John Ashcroft of Missouri, are thought to be in real trouble...

...GOP First-Termers Top Senate Endangered List," the paper announced, "Democrats Hope to Narrow Gap in Republican-Controlled Senate...

...to 629 in 1998...

...Balance it all out and it appears likely that the GOP will suffer little, if any, net loss in 2000 —and might actually pick up a seat or two...

...those challengers who haven't yet committed to running will find themselves handicapped by their late start...

...A t this point it would be natural to consider how the Democratic freshmen are doing...

...While he's plenty visible and his views are well known, he has drawn what many Republicans believe is the strongest opponent possible: Missouri governor Mel Carnahan...

...Ashcroft's problems are a little different...

...I don't hear anybody talking about impeachment, Democrat or Republican," says Faucheux...

...Two senior senators, Connie Mack of Florida and John Chafee of Rhode Island, are retiring, and both their seats appear to be in play...

...Another veteran, William Roth of Delaware, could face a tough challenge...

...His issues—like immigration —haven't made a big splash and he hasn't spent every spare moment campaigning back home...

...That's been particularly true in recent Senate elections...

...As recently as the end of July,polls showed Abraham ahead of Stabenow by 43-39 percent, a dangerously tight margin for an incumbent...

...I think it's one of the unwritten stories in Washington," Senator Robert Torricelli, who heads Democratic campaign strategy, said recently on CNN...

...open seats that are easily as vulnerable as those held by Republican first-termers...

...Ensign ran against Senator Harry Reid in 1998 and lost by 428 votes out of a total of 435,790 votes cast...

...Two more, Minnesota's Rod Grams and Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum, have races to worry about, but whatever problems they have will be offset by the weaknesses of their likely opponents...

...The interesting thing is the open seats could very well flip to the other side," he says...