The Campaign Spectator
Bernstein, Mark F.
THE CAMPAIGN SPECTATOR by Mark F. Bernstein To Have and Have Not I n the mid-195o's, noon of the Eisenhower summer, glib Republicans liked to congratulate each other that they were...
...Looking at the lower chamber of each state's legislature, almost three-quarters of the Democratic seats are located in what might be called poor to lower middle-class districts...
...The National Journal recently published a study which showed that the Democratic share of the vote for president in 100 wealthy enclaves around the country rose from 25 percent in 198o to 41 percent in 1996— evidence, it suggested, that Democrats were making inroads among the rich to go with their base among the poor and working class...
...D emocrats who think their base belongs with the poor should consider the implications of this position as reapportionment approaches...
...South Carolina Democrats, on the other hand, who have 93 percent of their seats in below-average districts, have picked up only one upper middle-class district in six years...
...Eight of the ten largest states have Republican governors and one other (Florida) may get one next year...
...Not surprisingly, Democrats do best there...
...Republican-held rural districts, especially in the South, are distinctly wealthier and more suburban than Democratic rural districts...
...There's not a single state in which more than half the Democrats in the state assembly represent districts with household income above the state average...
...To take one example, Democrats control the Texas House of Representatives, 82-68, but only six of those Democratic seats are located in districts where household income is above the state averNo way the rich are joining the Democrats, whose prospects, like their consitutents, are becoming poorer...
...In Florida, although 62 percent of the Republican seats are located in above-average income districts, three-quarters of the seats they have won and held since 1992 are located in below-average income districts...
...that is, districts in which household income is below the state average...
...Thus, they are much more likely to be melded into existing suburban districts, creating more Republican strongholds...
...Perhaps surprisingly, it is the South in which the Republican country-club stereotype has rung most true...
...Success in the legislatures, in turn, gave Democrats an experienced pool of candidates for higher office for years to come...
...Republicans have a good chance of increasing their gains when districts are redrawn three years from now...
...In 1992, the year Clinton was first elected, his party controlled the legislatures in twenty-nine states, the Republicans in only six...
...In South Carolina, 56 percent of Republican districts are in above-average income districts, but 6o percent of the districts they have gained since 1992 are not...
...The National Journal's suggestion that wealthy voters are turning Democratic is unsupported in state legislative races...
...In the twenty most populous states, only ten wealthy districts have changed hands in the last six years —and the GOP has won seven of them...
...Although many Southern Republicans in Congress — Newt Gingrich, Dick Armey, Phil Gramm, Trent Lott—come from poor or middle-class backgrounds, the party has been slow to win such voters in state legislative elections...
...Another 29 percent of all districts are suburban, a source of Republican strength...
...But the largest number of districts in the country are the 41 percent that are classified as rural, and these are almost evenly split between the parties-49 percent are held by Democrats, 48 percent by Republicans...
...The South is not the only region where the GOP is making inroads among those earning less than an average income...
...Democrats made substantial gains in the 1958 midterm elections and, owing to their strength in the state legislatures, were then able to sharpen their electoral edge by favorably redrawing congressional and state districts...
...In Louisiana, it is just 15 percent...
...The converse is that only about a quarter of all Democratic seats are located in districts in which household income is above the state average...
...He sees the Republican shift in the legislatures as being of a piece with GOP gains elsewhere...
...They aren't...
...To the contrary, he adds, "It's a recipe for disaster...
...60 June 199 8 • The American Spectator age of $35,667...
...THE CAMPAIGN SPECTATOR by Mark F. Bernstein To Have and Have Not I n the mid-195o's, noon of the Eisenhower summer, glib Republicans liked to congratulate each other that they were re-establishing themselves as the country's majority party...
...If anything, it is the Democrats who are losing ground...
...Eight of the ten districts Texas Republicans have gained since 1992 have below-average household income, while Democrats have not gained any districts with above-average income during that period...
...The country was at peace, the economy was humming, and hopes were high that the GOP was wooing back some of the Democrats' New Deal base...
...Those influences play especially well among the lower middle class and in the South, where Barone says "the old, vestigial allegiance toward the Democratic party is finally, after many years, breaking down...
...The differences in the composition of each party's electoral base can be startling...
...Democrats in the Florida House last added to the number of seats they held in 1982...
...The authors have explored the much deeper and previously ignored mine of state legislative races and uncovered data suggesting an extensive and on-going Democratic decline—one that may also ensure Republican competitiveness for another decade...
...Peering out at the electoral horizon, it was easy to see a Republican sun rising...
...They will also provide the GOP with a ready-made field of candidates for higher office...
...04 The American Spectator • June 1 9 9 8 61...
...Nineteen of the twenty-five seats Repub44 Democrats seem to be deluding themselves just as Republicans did forty years ago...
...The fight—now, as always—is for the middle class...
...In a large majority of state legislative districts, average household income is within $15,000 of the state average...
...The trouble, of course, was that it wasn't happening...
...Only 19 percent of Republican seats in the Mississippi house, for example, are located in below-average income districts...
...T he raw totals are bad enough for the Democrats...
...77 licans have gained in the Georgia House are in above-average income districts...
...For one thing, in relative termsthere are very few truly poor or wealthy districts in the country...
...In a country that is getting richer, being the party of those who are not is hardly the path to success...
...Barron's has picked up the beat, wondering in an editorial if "Republicans are losing the upper-class advantage...
...Georgia Democrats hold the House by a margin of 1o6-74, though barely one in eight represents a district where income exceeds $37,000...
...The broader the GOP's economic base, the easier it will be to draw districts in which Republican candidates can succeed...
...State legislators are a party's bench strength," emphasizes Barone, better known as the author of the Almanac of American Politics, one of the best guides to Congress...
...Lilley contends that Democrats "are in danger of boxing themselves in as being only the party of the poor...
...Ominously for Democrats, though, that balance is shifting...
...Eighty percent of the seats the Republican Party has gained in the South over the last six years have been in lower middle-class districts...
...Across much of the rest of the South one finds the same thing...
...which provides electoral and demographic data on every one of the 6,744 state legislative districts in the country...
...Like Republicans forty years ago, Democrats at the state level may be wearing a nice hat, but the rest of their wardrobe is growing threadbare...
...Following a small uptick in their fortunes in the 1996 congressional and state elections, and with Clinton currently riding a wave in the polls, some have begun to speak of a MARK F. BERNSTEIN is currently working on a biography of Harold Stassen and a history of Ivy League football...
...Republican governors with newly fortified Republican legislatures will be the ones who redraw state and congressional districts after the next census, just as Democrats did in generations past...
...According to Barone, Lilley, and DeFranco, roughly a quarter of all state legislative districts in the country are located in areas they classify as urban...
...Far from being the party of both rich and poor, Democrats from Tallahassee to Olympia find themselves in danger of becoming isolated as the party of the economic bottom, while the GOP expands its base...
...Jokes about Bill Clinton's party being similarly undressed may carry a bit too much baggage, but Democrats seem to be deluding themselves just as Republicans did forty years ago...
...It's part of the long-run move in our politics from economic to cultural influences...
...For evidence, consult State Legislative Elections, a new book by Michael Barone, William Lilley III, and Lawrence J. DeFranco (Congressional Quarterly, Inc...
...In California, less than a third of the Democratic seats are in above-average income districts...
...Yet like all stereotypes, the one about rich Republicans and poor Democrats has a foundation in truth...
...Moreover, the rich are relatively consistent in their voting...
...Legislatures with more Republican members will influence everything from abortion rights and tax reform to welfare policy...
...In twenty-one states — including California, Illinois, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington—at least 40 percent of the Republican seats in the lower chamber of the legislature are located in below-average income districts...
...in Alabama, 13 percent...
...Small wonder some wits were moved to compare Eisenhower's Republican Party to a man wearing a new hat but no clothes...
...Although Republicans, for their part, have fared poorly in districts where household income is below the state average, they do not do nearly as badly among poorer voters as Democrats do among those who are better off...
...Over the last six years, almost 58 percent of the seats Republicans have gained or regained have been in districts where household income is below the state average, including 7 of 9 in California, io of 14 in Kansas, 12 of 17 in Minnesota, 12 of 18 in Vermont, 15 of 25 in Washington, and 6 of 8 in Wisconsin...
...Republican seats are more evenly split, with about 55 percent in wealthy and upper middle-class districts and 45 percent in poor or lower middle-class ones...
...In all, Republicans have gained at least as many below-average income seats as above-average income seats in thirty-three states...
...reemerging Democratic majority...
...in Florida, it is just 28 percent...
...Today, Democrats control just twenty states (up from sixteen two years ago), and Republicans eighteen...
Vol. 31 • June 1998 • No. 6
