The Second Reagan Revolution

...But if the House actually votes down some of the important items in the contract, the consequence could be political liabilities for the party in 1996...

...In December, the House Budget Committee, under Kasich's chairmanship, began working on a separate spending reduction bill—$20 billion in cuts for next year, $200 billion over the next five years—that would be voted on by early February...

...Of course, Reagan had other things to do, and in fact he did not really take on big government...

...The kind of presidency Clinton wanted his to be is no longer possible...

...One way to cut spending is to go through the federal budget line-by-line, with three questions in mind...

...We'll talk to America about it right now," says Armey, who wants the flat tax in the 1996 GOP platform...

...The new Republican Congress now has the chance to prove Stockman wrong...

...Under Reagan's presidency, government at least did not grow...

...It is no coincidence that the Clintons paid a solemn visit in early 1993 to Hyde Park, nor that they argued their health care plan was an elaboration of the social security system FDR established in 1935...

...On this point, Sen...

...Not only do Republicans control both houses of Congress for the first time in forty years, but by all accounts they are more committed to cutting government than any previous Congress in modern times...

...The Constitution doesn't involve the president in the amendment process, leaving it entirely to the Congress and the people...

...Amending the Constitution purely for symbolic reasons is unwise, however, and conservatives historically have been loath to do so...

...Gramm has said he wants to craft a tax-cut bill in such a way that if revenues exceed the estimates under static scoring, the difference will be returned to taxpayers rather than absorbed by government to spend...

...The program badly needs reform, but taking it off the slate for this session of Congress is wise...

...government programs take on weight and momentum, as public servants say, always with the best of intentions, "What greater service we could render if only we had a little more money and a little more power...

...Congress could cap surviving programs at levels calculated to produce whatever remaining savings are necessary...

...Even if House Republicans approve the contract in I While clear legislative conflict between Congress and the president would help define the political debate for 1996, the constitutional amendments Republicans are advocating are a different matter...

...Today the political environment is more hospitable to a concerted effort to limit government than it was in the early 1980s...

...First, is the targeted program obsolete...

...T he problem of big government, in a constitutional sense, is a problem of power...

...Obviously the contract would not include the items it does were they not positions favored by House Republicans...

...and John Kasich (R-Ohio) proposed major spending cuts that would have taken us a long way toward a balanced budget...

...This time, the GOP will not have the Cold War and a Carterized economy to keep it from doing the right thing...

...Even assuming the revolution is renewed without distraction, there are institutional factors in the make-up of Congress that could impede the effort...

...Had he seriously tried to limit government, Reagan might not have done so well with these more immediate and compelling goals...

...While the views of congressional Republicans are more politically cohesive than in years past, and while the leadership will doubtless work hard to keep the rank-and-file in line, the very nature of Congress will make it difficult to garner sufficient majorities (and in some cases supennajorities) in both houses to slash the government...

...The House version is better than the Senate's, but neither contains the kind of supermajority requirement that's needed...

...A toothless balanced-budget amendment might nonetheless have symbolic importance, reminding Americans of the "fiscal morality," as William Niskanen of the Cato Institute calls it, that governed federal taxing and spending until the past two decades: we failed to balance income and expenditure only if at war or faced with some other clear national emergency...

...That Reagan did not, as president, pursue the agenda of his 1964 speech might well have saved hirm--as well as the agenda itself...

...During the last session, Reps...

...The day before the election, the Supreme Court heard argument in a case that illustrates current reality: at issue in U.S...

...As Justice David Souter observed during the argument, if it's okay for Congress to pass this law, there would seem to be no constitutional limit on its legislative authority...

...Like Wilson, Roosevelt, and Lyndon Johnson, Clinton understands the presidency to be the dominant force in domestic politics...

...Instead, the contract contains tax cuts and tax credits...

...It's possible that the tax cuts will result in greater revenues, but in their shrewdness congressional Republicans have said theywill stick to the current "static" method of predicting the impact of changes in tax policy—an approach that will leave them no choice but to reduce spending more if they are to achieve the balanced budget they have promised...

...As for the substance of the contract, its two constitutional amendments—term limits for members of Congress and a balanced budget—probably would not advance the second Reagan Revolution...

...In any event, a symbolic amendment will be irrelevant to the second Reagan Revolution...

...For one thing, it's always possible that a foreign policy disaster or crashing economy could disrupt the GOP's best laid plans...

...As readers of The Federalist know, members of Congress sit in two houses: the 100 senators represent states, while 435 representatives sit for districts...

...Such an early demonstration of political will would represent a down-payment of sorts on the total spending cuts to come through the annual budget process, which officially begins in March...

...If we have to offset dollar-for-dollar revenue losses from tax cuts, then we have to down-size government by that much...

...As an instrument of progressive-liberal politics, the rhetorical presidency has consistently worked to enlarge government, and the classic means of doing this has been to invoke a "crisis" needing a government solution...

...But achieving this goal won't be easy, regardless of Republican euphoria over the election results...

...According to congressional budget committee aides, revenue losses from the proposed tax cuts and credits amounting to $175 billion over five years could be offset by additional spending cuts...

...Indeed, an electorate not yet so open to less government might have administered a crushing midterm defeat in 1982 and even turned against him in 1984...

...He is weak politically, and the Republican Congress will have to think about his legislative concerns only if forced to do so by presidential veto...

...We'll do this for another six months on talk radio before introducing it in Congress...

...Why are they not up to snuff...

...v. Lopez is whether a federal statute passed in 1990 that bans the possession of guns within 1,000 feet of a school is constitutional...

...This consideration underscores that the second Reagan Revolution, if it does occur, will take place elsewhere in the federal budget...

...Such an amendment would require not merely the enactment of a balanced budget each year, but also a supermajority vote (say, three-fifths of both houses) whenever Congress wishes to raise taxes or the debt ceiling...

...The American Spectator February 1995 23 full, the Republican Senate might disagree on enough items to dampen the party's image with voters...

...Contrary to conventional wisdom in Washington, it is possible to cut that much without touching Social Security...

...Gerry Solomon (R-N.Y...

...they could engage in pork-barrel spending to get a job back home (or in Washington...

...Citing this failure, David Stockman wrote a book subtitled "Why the Reagan Revolution Failed...

...With or without such an amendment—and there wouldn't be one until a year or two from now at the-earliest—political will on the part ofmajorities in both houses is what is truly needed to reduce big government, and hence spending, through legislation alone...

...I71 The American Spectator February 1995 25...

...Furthermore, if Republicans establish that they can govern in reasonable accord with the contract, they will be in a credible position to address Social Security reform—perhaps even with the help of a Republican president—starting in 1997...

...Today the public is less moved by the rhetoric of panic and more skeptical about the ability of government programsto solve putative crises...

...Unfortunately, the new Republican Congress is not going to propose to the states the correct kind of balanced-budget amendment...

...Disagreement occurs naturally, as senators elected to six-year terms tend to take a longer view than representatives elected every two years...

...Gramm's ideas are catching on...

...Republicans always have been committed to the lessons of limited government," says Gramm, "but we have not always been willing to vote for it...

...So would other welfare for middle-and upper-income earners...

...While the Constitution as written authorizes Congress to legislate only in certain areas, the effective Constitution under which Congress today does its work imposes very few constraints...

...Few things could please President Clinton more than congressional Republicans bickering among themselves.] Then, too, there is the House Republicans' Contract With America, which framed the debate last fall and continues to do so during the first hundred days of the 104th Congress...

...Through this process, the GOP could define what the "legitimate function" of the federal government is today...

...And then there is Bill Clinton...

...for one thing, targeting it would contradict what Republicans promised in the midterm election campaigns...

...Speaker Newt Gingrich's promise that the House will vote on each element in the contract during this period presents a potential political difficulty for the GOP...

...the president, in this view, should intuit what the American people want—even if it is not obvious to them—and rally their support for the necessary legislation from Congress...

...In the "rhetorical presidency," as it is called, the president does not merely run the government—he runs the country...

...As James Q. Wilson has written, such an amendment could well force Congress to "strike a balance between costs and benefits that is in the long-term interests of the public...

...Here William Kristol's flamboyant suggestion that the committees hold "show trials" and "public executions" of unjustifiable programs, offices, and the like makes a powerful point: the GOP should use the present opportunity not only to cut spending, but to educate an electorate more inclined than ever to reduce spending, but unsure of why or how it should be done...

...If we don't lose the kind of revenue we thought, or get more in return, we can cut taxes more...

...As one congressional aide told me, the answer is obvious: the right kind of balanced-budget amendment won't win the two-thirds majorities of both houses needed to propose it to the states...

...22 The American Spectator February 1995 money...

...Contrary to conventional wisdom in Washington, it is possible to cut $650 billion from the federal budget over the next five years without touching Social Security...

...by Terry Eastland Government tends to grow...

...That possibility doesn't scare the victorious GOP...

...The Reagan record on both is impressive—economic recovery lasted throughout the 1980s, and the death of the Soviet Union signaled the collapse of Communism almost worldwide...

...Both the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation have shown, item-byitem, how other spending can be cut now to balance the budget within the GOP timetable...

...Government still might be as large and costly and intrusive as it is now...

...What's required is agreement by majorities in both houses on legislation that can be sent to President Clinton, and Republicans now have those majorities—in other words, they have no excuses...

...The media, which progressive presidents in the past could count on to get out their message, now consist of far more than just the newspapers of record, the networks, and other traditional outlets...

...New Democrat rhetoric notwithstanding, Clinton has always seen his presidency in the line of progressive-liberal presidencies begun with Woodrow Wilson's...

...Still, the hurdle is higher than for an ordinary statute: two-thirds majorities of both houses must approve an amendment before it can be sent to the states for ratification...

...In their final term of office, term-limited members could still pass laws regarding virtually anything...

...New media, including talk radio, are populist in orientation and tend to be politically conservative...

...That's one reason why it's worth recalling something else Reagan said in that 1964 speech: "Will you resist the temptation to get a government handout for your community...

...He also inherited a miserable economy, and tried to revive it with income tax rate cuts and tight Terry Eastland is the editor of Forbes MediaCritic and a fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center...

...The second Reagan Revolution will test not just the mettle of congressional Republicans who declare it their mission, but also the virtue of the American people...

...Phil Gramm is adamant "I'm not looking for an excuse not to cut government," he says...

...When President Reagan talked about cutting spending, he typically pointed to "waste, fraud, and abuse"—as though savings in these areas alone could balance the budget...

...ongressional Republicans have an excellent opportunity to pursue what Reagan aide Martin Anderson described in 1988 as "the unfinished part" of the Reagan Revolution...

...Republicans did not include in the contract new Majority Leader Richard Armey's proposed flat tax, which would simplify life for everyone even as it put lobbyists, lawyers, and accountants out of work...

...limiting government so that it fits "its legitimate function" is the solution...

...Indeed, Clinton often speaks explicitly of how he "runs the country...

...Federal spending, as a percentage of gross domestic product, was roughly the same (22 percent) when Reagan left office as when he was first sworn in—a polite way of saying that he stunned but did not slay the beast...

...The old media hierarchy that served as a gatekeeper of news and information no longer exists...

...One way to curb Congress's almost unlimited power is with an appropriately framed balanced-budget amendment...

...To "pay" for the tax cuts in the contract, and to have a realistic chance of balancing the budget by 2002, as the House Republicans promise, Congress will have to cut spending for the next fiscal year (1996) by roughly $75-80 billion, and over the next five years by $650-750 billion...

...But the truth is that outside of its legitimate function, government does nothing as well or as economically as the private sector . . . —Ronald Reagan October 27, 1964 onald Reagan spoke those words thirty years ago on R behalf of then–presidential candidate Barry Goldwater, but for the new Republican Congress, they are, as the preacher might say, a text—a text that declares a problem and implies a solution...

...This last question, if raised unflinchingly, would lead to the dismantling of several cabinet departments (Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, and Commerce), not to mention sub-cabinet agencies such as the National Endowment for the Arts and the Small Business Administration and sundry offices and programs throughout government...

...Nothing is beneath the president's concern, nor beyond what the federal government may try to do...

...When asked of, say, the Interstate Commerce Commission, created in 1887, the answer is clearly yes...

...Whatever arguments may be made for a term-limits amendment, such an amendment, even if ratified, would not affect the power Congress now exercises...

...S ocial Security accounts for more than a third of all spending, but congressional Republicans have agreed not to touch it...

...Gingrich's specific promise was not that all ten of its items would be passed by the House, much less the House and the Senate, but that they would be voted on by the House...

...But this model of the presidency reached its limits long ago, even though Clinton has never grasped this truth...

...Thus the Clintons talked frequently about a "health care crisis...

...But if the losses go higher, there's little hope of finding the additional cuts needed to keep on track toward a balanced budget...

...In effect this amendment would concede the reality of modern congressional power, but would seek to check and balance that power through a supermajority requirement...

...Solomon's budget, in fact, would have reached that goal in 1999...

...Government's tendency to grow is the problem...

...By this measure, most farm subsidies would be zeroed out...

...T he revenue side remains a wild card...

...I don't think people around here are thinking about how to overcome vetoes," one Hill Republican told me...

...A routed Democratic Party is now searching for a credible voice in a debate, manifestly not of its choosing, over how to scale back the size, scope, and cost of the federal government...

...24 The American Spectator February 1995 The spending cuts in the March budget resolution will require approval by the relevant committees over the next several months...

...Does Congress have the power to do this...

...Third, is the program the prerogative of the federal government, or should it be left to the states and localities and the private sector...

...He was bound to defeat the "Evil Empire" of the Soviet Union, and that goal required increased defense spending...

...Second, is the program essentially special-interest pork...

...The current 'scoring' method works to our advantage," one House budget committee aide told me...

...If Republicans in Congress are now willing to do so, the nation will soon be able to judge whether they like the less-than-big government, and whether they want Congress to keep on cutting spending in the years ahead...

...The economy, however you judge it, is not in the shambles of 1981...

...as both parties bid for voter affections, tax policy is definitely going to be changed...