Spectator's Journal/Iraq Trap

...is not about to send back half a million troops—the strategic balance would tilt towards Damascus and Tehran...

...Umar Hassan alBashir indirectly confirmed the reports in the London-based paper Al-Duds al-Arabi, but said the agreement was "not directed against any other state...

...Whether Iraq is dismembered or not, the Syrian-Iranian geopolitical blueprint for the north of the country would soon be complemented strategically...

...Mas'ud Barazani, leader of the most prominent Kurdish faction, the Democratic Party of Kurdistan (DPK), was quoted on Radio Monte Carlo last December as warning against "using the Kurdish issue as a bridge for others to cross over and take power in Iraq...

...In December, Turkish president Turgut Ozal warned Assad in Al-Hayah that he "should be careful" about helping the PKK...

...t is no surprise that the Saudis feel nervous...

...Tehran and Damascus sense that Saddam Hussein may be on the ropes, especially given the recent feuding within Saddam's family clan hailing from the provincial capital of Tikrit, and growing dissension in the military...

...Yemen's foreign minister Abd al-Karim al-Iryani told the London-based Al-Sharq al-Awsat this February that his country had accepted because the invitation came from the Sudanese government only, and because of its "fraternal relations" with Khartoum...

...Known as Badr or as Number Nine, the unit had over three thousand soldiers by the end of the Iran-Iraq war...

...The Tel Aviv daily Davar reported in January that Russia plans to sell $2 billion worth of advanced weapons to Syria...

...Bush would like to erase this blunder from his record before the elections, but may now be repeating the mistake of listening to Riyadh and walking into a trap...

...Last January, Yemen received an invitation to participate as an observer in joint naval exercises conducted by Iran, Sudan, and Eritrean units in the Red Sea...

...Assad, too, stands to benefit from Iran's Saudi gambit...

...Presumably, Iranian hegemony in the Gulf will boost Iran's standing among the Muslim states of the former Soviet Union, where a Turkish-Iranian "cold war" for influence is already raging...

...T he new Iranian activism regard- ing Iraq is only one aspect of a larger political design...

...Numerous sources have said the two countries have signed a new military agreement...

...Iraq Trap by Avigdor Haselkorn While Western leaders express satisfaction at the pragmatism Iran and Syria have displayed in their recent foreign policies (e.g., Syria's participation in the Middle East peace conference and Iran's new overtures to Western Europe), the two countries are busy coordinating a new strategic design in the area...

...and Israel...

...Last December, Damascus hosted a conference of Iraqi opposition forces aimed at "drawing up a new joint action plan to topple [Saddam...

...involvement would assure political sway for the Saudis...

...saying that Saddam had been weakened and the Army no longer seriously obeyed his orders...

...The group, founded in November 1982 in Tehran, hopes to turn Iraq into an Islamic Republic modeled on Iran...

...SAIRI and other Iraqi opposition forces signed a communiqué shortly after the invasion of Kuwait, pledging to liberate Iraq from Saddam's Ba'ath party and establish a regime that would "fulfill its national duty by fighting imperialism and Zionism and their schemes...

...At the same time, a senior official of the Iranian Defense Ministry's military procurement department confirmed to the London-based paper Sawt al-Kuwayt al-Duwali that "Russian President Yeltsin has assured the Iranian leadership that . . . his country will remain committed to the [military] agreements and contracts concluded in the past...

...Among the leaders at the Damascus conference was Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim, chairman of the Supreme Assembly for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI...

...Last December Iran's President Hashemi Rafsanjani visited Sudan with a large political and military delegation, including defense minister Akbar Torkan, Revolu56 The American Spectator May 1992 tionary Guard commander Mohsen Reza'i, and the Iranian chief of intelligence...

...The Iranians are reportedly on the verge of concluding another large arms purchase from Russia, including 24 Su-25s and Su-27s and 20 more MiG-29s...

...Sudanese leader Lt...

...And the Bush Administration, acting on Saudi advice, could be playing into their hands...

...Nor can they stop the erosion of the Iraqi leader's domestic position...

...After al-Hakim met with Assad last December, the Syrian media reported that the SAIRI leader presented a draft political plan "for effective coordination and cooperation with the Arab and Islamic states neighboring Iraq . . . [and] free from foreign intervention" to overthrow the regime in Baghdad...

...Last September, the chief of the joint staff of Syria's Armed Forces, Lt...

...The aim is not only to further their geopolitical interests, but also to nullify U.S...

...air power into the equation...

...Barazani was not invited to Damascus, as Assad and Talabani consider him too close to the U.S...

...It was Riyadh (and Ankara) that opposed the overthrow of Saddam and urged a premature end to the war, which doomed the ensuing Shi'ite-Kurdish revolt even before it began...

...Recent reports indicating that Iran may be acting as a transfer point for North Korean Scud-Cs on their way to Syria highlight Assad's problem, for these missiles will have to be airlifted from Iran to Syria—a costly option, and of limited logistic value in case of war...

...Mansur Sattari, confirmed in early February that his country now deploys MiG-29 and Su-24 combat planes...

...They know that a massive and continuing U.S...

...undertaking would end up serving the interests of Assad and Rafsanjani, not the West...

...Under the agreement, Iran has received 24 to 28 MiG-29s, a number of Sukhoi-24 fighter bombers, and 200 to 250 T-72 tanks, and the commander of Iran's air force, Brig...

...SAIRI has recruited Iraqi exiles and POWs to its regular army unit, which is fully subsidized and largely trained by Iran...

...Al-Hakim claimed in March 1991 that he was directing the revolt in Basra and elsewhere, and this February, on the clandestine Voice of Rebellious Iraq, he accused the U.S...

...But, even with the maneuvers over, reports persist of Iranian naval vessels in the area of Trinkitat harbor, south of the Sudanese Red Sea port of Sawakin...

...They have thus decided that the best response to the Syrian-Iranian scheme is to win away the Kurdish and Shi'ite leaders opposing Saddam...

...On December 29, Agence France Presse quoted Iran's defense minister Akbar Torkan as saying that "Saddam Hussein is at the root of instability in the region, and his continued presence at the helm undermines the establishment of peace and security in the Gulf...

...Although its claim that it could easily mobilize 50,000 to 100,000 warriors inside Iraq is an obvious exaggeration, SAIRI was the single most important military organization in southern Iraq when the Shi'ite revolt against Saddam erupted in the wake of the Gulf war...

...But, paradoxically, even such a U.S...

...In fact, by making their collaborative efforts against Saddam highly visible, Assad and Rafsanjani may be hoping to force Bush's hand...

...He knows that the more nervous the Saudis become about Tehran's intentions, the more important his alliance with Iran becomes to Riyadh...

...See "Assad Commentary," TAS, October 1991...

...Fully aware that its Kurdish and Shi'ite allies cannot overthrow Saddam on their own, Syria and Iran would love to bring U.S...

...Avigdor Haselkorn is a strategic analyst and defense consultant specializing in CIS and Middle Eastern affairs...

...Ali Shahbazi as saying, "During this trip, military cooperation and the exchange of expert teams aimed at benefiting from the experiences of the two countries in the military field were discussed and examined...

...The collapse of the rebellion put an end to the Syrian scheme, but with Saddam weakened, As-sad is trying again...

...and the West of committing "crimes" against the Iraqi people by helping to suppress the Shi'ite uprising: "The [Saddam Hussein] regime was given preparations and support by the United States for this crime...

...Rafsanjani would welcome a weak Turkey, as would Assadwho supports the Kurdish Workers' party (PKK) operating in southeastern Turkey, and has a running feud with Ankara over water and territorial rights...

...They realize that they cannot stem Syrian-Iranian preparations to oust Saddam...

...regional gains from the war with Iraq...

...Moreover, the Iranians have sought to draw Yemen into their geopolitical scheme...

...In the aftermath of the Gulf war, Syria, left to face Israel alone, has sought to cement its longstanding strategic ties to Iran...

...The Cairo paper Al-Ahram said Iran agreed to finance Chinese military deals with Sudan valued at more than $250 million...

...However, the geographic separation of the two countries by Iraqi territory makes it questionable whether Iran can serve as a "strategic rear" for Syria...

...The Israeli paper Ha'aretz reported in November that a large Syrian military delegation had gone to Iran to train Iranian pilots to fly the dozens of Iraqi planes flown there during the Gulf war...

...Hikmat al-Shihabi, arrived in Tehran on a six-day visit...

...71 The American Spectator May 1992 57...

...Just as SAIRI is to do Iran's bidding, Jalal Talabani, secretary general of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), was invited to Damascus to help President Assad do Syria's...

...After the war, Assad allowed Talabani to penetrate into Iraq from Syria, hopingthat the PUK would create a territorial bridge across Kurdish northern Iraq that would enable Syria to form a united front with Iran against Israel...

...Without it—and the U.S...

...Thus, in a remarkable turnaround, they are now urging the Bush Administration to help topple Saddam, in hopes that U.S...

...A "more dangerous aspect," the paper said, involves the deployment of Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Sudan...

...And whether or not Iraq disintegrates, Iran stands to strengthen its presence and influence there...

...Tightening the noose around Saudi Arabia would move Riyadh's oil production policy closer to Iran's interests than the U.S.'s...

...Clearly, Tehran now estimates that a rekindling of the Shi'ite rebellion could topple Saddam...

...In January, the Iranian news agency IRNA highlighted a speech delivered by Talabani in Erbil, northern Iraq, in which the PUK leader "lauded southern Iraqi Shi'ites for their struggle against Saddam...

...And that wouldn't be Turkey's only problem if Iran and Syria oust Saddam...

...Commenting on the recent U.S.-Kuwait military agreement, the Syrian commander said, "We have already declared our concerns about the presence of foreign forces in any Arab country and we shall still endeavor to drive foreign forces from the region...

...Given its growing regional dominance, it hopes eventually to tie the security of the Gulf to Iran, instead of the Arab world...

...In January, the Cairo paper Al-Wafd reported the arrival in Sudan of 3,000 Iranian "advisers...

...Syria already operates at least 20 MiG-29s and 20 Su-24s...

...The Iranians, in other words, are positioning themselves on the northern and southern borders of Saudi Arabia, near its oil-producing and -exporting centers...

...An independent Kurdistan carved out of Iraq could destabilize Turkey, which has 12 million Kurds of its own...

...If Iraq disintegrates as a result of the current Tehran-Damascus scheme, the strategic encirclement of Saudi Arabia now underway would only be accelerated...

...Meanwhile, according to a BBC report, Ukrainian representatives have not categorically denied that a $7 billion deal for Iranian oil and gas reached by both countries last February could involve arms...

...Talabani] called for unity between the Kurds and Shi'ites...

...Thanks to ex-Soviet arms, Iran and Syria are becoming increasingly compatible militarily...

...Tehran would press Riyadh to include it in any Gulf security arrangements...

...More Saudi protection money will thus be forthcoming, enabling Assad to proceed with his extensive military buildup...

...Numerous sources indicate that the deal includes 300 T-72 tanks (some of which may have already been delivered), 48 MiG-29s, 24 Su-24s, and SAM-10 and SAM-11 antiaircraft batteries...

...In October, Tehran Radio quoted Iran's chief of staff Maj...

...troop presence would be necessary to ensure an outcome favoring Riyadh...

...Although it accepts Western science and technology, and denounced Iraq's occupation of Kuwait, SAIRI also demanded the "withdrawal of the foreign armies...