Spectator's Journal/Assad Commentary

...In the meantime, he is continuing his military buildup, fully confident that the current shift to the "political battle' will only help him isolate his enemy, especially by causing new strains in U.S.-Israeli relations...

...pressure regarding his military purchases...

...This is all rather dubious...

...And, as the Wall Street Journal wrote in July, Assad's ability to expand his oil production depends heavily on U.S...

...Of all recent administrations, the current one is the most likely to press Israel for concessions in the name of the "new world order...

...It is now almost universally accepted that Assad's about-face is due to changes in the global power structure—particularly the weakening of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the United States as the only superpower...

...has never recognized Israel's decision to annex the Golan Heights...

...When Assad visited Moscow in 1987, Gorbachev told him that Syria should give up its dreams of parity with the IDF, and, indeed, the Syrian army would be unable to defeat Israel...

...A ssad has made his diplomatic .M move because he has nothing to lose He could recover at least part of the Golan Heights...

...Syria suffers from shortages of housing, electricity, and water...

...is relying on the Arab coalition as the basis for a regional security arrangement, and will likely veto any Israeli military initiative, which would undermine what the President calls his "new credibility" among Arabs...

...With the $2 billion it received from the Gulf states for joining the anti-Iraq coalition, Syria bought Scud-Cs from North Korea, sixty to eighty of which have already been delivered, according to the Israelis...

...And given the difficulties Israel and the coalition had in locating Iraq's mobile Scud launchers, Assad can be confident that, even if Israel preempts most of the Syrian missiles in any attack, enough will survive to rain terror on Israeli cities...

...and that his conversion is reminiscent of that of Anwar al-Sadat of Egypt in 1977...

...The missiles Iraq launched at Israel had quarter-ton warheads...

...Assimilating hundreds of thousands of Soviet Jews requires tranquil borders and huge financial resources, the latter of which only the United States can provide...

...The Syrian military buildup also took it to Poland in May...

...Any moves he makes toward Israel will have Avigdor Haselkorn is a strategic analyst and defense consultant specializing in Soviet and Middle Eastern affairs...

...Assad's cronies describe the upcoming negotiations not as peace talks but as a "political battle," as Vice President Abd-al-Halim Khaddam did on Damascus radio in July...

...that his position is a defensive, not an offensive, one...

...is the only superpower, and that it is with the US...

...to bolster his regime's pan-Arab credentials...

...Even such a dovish observer as former IDF intelligence chief Maj...

...The Syrian shopping list of arms, especially given its heavy emphasis on offensive weapons, must also be seen in the context of Syria's preparations to retake the Golan...

...President Lech Walesa, however, announced that Poland was calling off a deal that would have sent tanks to Syria-100 of them, according to the Czech newspaper Narodna Obmda...

...Finally, it is argued, Syria is in desperate need of Western technology...

...Damascus is also negotiating with China for M-9 missiles, which have a range of 800 by Avigdor Haselkorn kilometers and can carry one-ton warheads...

...support for Israel—Washington no longer has such a great need for it as a strategic asset...

...technology...

...Although the remarkable events of late August raise the possibility that Moscow will henceforth prefer Israel to dictators like Assad, such a shift remains hypothetical...

...24 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR OCTOBER 1991...

...Even in the middle of the Gulf War, Syrian Defense Minister Gen...

...In prodding Israel to join the talks, Secretary Baker reportedly argued that As-sad has "realized that he can no longer rely on the USSR to serve as his prop, that the U.S...

...After a visit to Syria by Chinese Prime Minister Li Peng, the two countries announced that they "will continue to consolidate and develop relations in all fields"—which, in Communist parlance, means arms...

...It can be argued that Assad's policy shift was motivated by fear of an Israeli pre-emptive strike...

...A pre-emptive strike against Syria could have grave political consequences...

...Syria has chemical warheads, and the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz sees Syria's interest in the missiles as stemming from Israel's inability to defend itself against the relatively ineffective Iraqi Scuds...

...In August, on the forty-sixth anniversary of the Syrian Arab Army, he told his troops over Syrian TV: If the world's interaction with our cause and its responsiveness to our understanding of just peace would help our struggle, then our efforts, capabilities, and especially our belief in martyrdom in defense of the homeland and the people remain the basis for attaining our objectives...

...But rumors of the death of Soviet sponsorship have been greatly exaggerated...

...The evolving arms relationship between the USSR and Iran, including a recent shipment of MiG-29s, has bearing on the Israeli-Syrian balance...

...Aharon Yariv told the Jerusakm Past that "Syria currently has an independent military option which could be exercised in a surprise attack on the Golan Heights...

...There is no denying that the defeat of Iraq has weakened Syria vis-a-vis IsTHE AMERICAN SPECTATOR OCTOBER 1991 23 rael, but it's doubtful Assad believes a dialogue is necessary to avert a pre-emptive strike by Israel...

...It won't be the rust time Baker's diplomatic genius has led to war...

...But the Israelis should be worried about something less than a full invasion: a limited strike aimed at seizing the Golan Heights is certainly within Assad's means...

...The Syrian general staff was also impressed by the large-scale civilian exodus from Tel Aviv as soon as that city became a target...

...Mustafa Tlass was in Moscow, where, according to Damascus Radio, "The two sides reviewed the means of promoting the continuous cooperation between the two friendly countries and modernizingthe defense means of the Syrian Arab forces, so that Syria will remain strong in these difficult and complicated circumstances...

...In April, according to Pravda, Gorbachev met with Syrian Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shar to reaffirm the "Soviet determination to develop relations of friendly cooperation with Syria along all lines, including the defense sphere . . ." The Israeli government claimed in May that Syria was negotiating with the Soviets to buy several new Su-24 medium-range bombers and fifty new MiG-29s, along with a large number of sophisticated tanks and air defense systems...

...Syria scholar Moshe Maoz wrote in the Jerusalem Post this March that "Syria today has no military option against the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), among other reasons because President Gorbachev has refused to continue increasing its military strength...

...As he said at a news conference following a July meeting with Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak, "The world must now choose between us...

...Even some Israeli intelligence officers were quoted in the Wall Street Journal in July as saying that Syria's leaders were "stunned" by the collapse of the power and prestige of their former patron...

...The new Scud-C, with a range of 600 kilometers, is far more accurate than the Scud-Bs used in the Gulf War...

...The lesson was only reinforced during the Gulf War...

...Assad's decision to join forces with the U.S...

...Moreover, in view of the temporary removal of Iraq from the Arab-Israeli equation, Assad might have concluded that the time was ripe for such a move, and Washington's peace initiative must have been greeted with relief in Damascus...

...Czech prime minister Marian Calfa, when pressed by Israel in May, said his country would sell the T-72s "to Syria or any other country that wants them...

...How Weak Is Assad Internationally...

...If Assad is acting defensively, why does he not simply sue for peace—i.e., agree to Shamir's "peace for peace"—rather than insist on the "territory for peace" approach...

...The Syrian army's large-scale military exercises, frequently conducted in the vicinity of the Israeli lines, only confirm the seriousness of Assad's plans...

...For one, President Bush's success in keeping Israel from retaliating in the Gulf War indicates that Israel's freedom of action has been severely constrained...

...Nor can it be assumed that Assad decided to search for peace in anticipation of a coup by hard-liners in the USSR...

...Moreover, the massive Kurdish and Shi'ite revolts in the war's aftermath must have given Assad the most forceful reminder of his own vulnerability since Sunni fundamentalists rose against him in the town of Hama in 1982...

...That is why he thought it necessary to tread the path of negotiations with Israel...

...Israel also has domestic preoccupations that would make an attack untimely...

...The new reality dawned in late 1989, just after the Bush-Gorbachev summit in Malta, when the Soviets prevented Syria from a planned invasion of Lebanon...

...In any event, Assad's "conversion" could not have come about as a result of the subsequent downfall of the Communists in the Soviet Union...

...Having noticed the extreme apprehension the Iraqi chemical warfare threat caused among the coalition forces and Israel, Assad views these missiles as key to achieving strategic parity with Israel...

...His Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi'a that draws from only 12 percent of Syria's mainly Sunni population, must rely on Arab "nationalism"—anti-Zionism and anti"imperialism'-for its legitimacy...

...While a peace process might seem a promising, even necessary, option for Syria, such a course could actually jeopardize Assad's regime...

...If his plan is successful, Assad will in due course be in the position to make a military push into the Golan Heights, perhaps with tacit international backing...

...Senior Israeli intelligence officials have said that Assad has sought Ba'ath party support in Syria by depicting his openness to talks as a mere change of tactics towards perennial Syrian goals: the Golan Heights and a Palestinian state...

...Would Israel Attack Syria...

...that he must work and cooperate...

...SPECTATOR'S JOURNAL ASSAD COMMENTARY In the weeks since Syria's President Hafez al-Assad agreed to take part in the United States' Middle East peace negotiations, a wrongheaded consensus has emerged on his motives...

...Given the Israeli alarm over the recent acquisition of medium-range missiles by Syria, and taking into account Israel's traumatic experience during the Gulf War, the incentives to pre-empt the Syrian threat must be great in Jerusalem...

...against Iraq was far from popular, and it is reliably reported that Syrian artillery posted in Saudi Arabia deliberately missed its Iraqi targets in the battle for the Gulf town of Khafji last January...

...Meanwhile, by waging "political battle," Assad also seeks to aggravate divisions within Israel, perhaps even causing the Israelis to lower their guard, while lessening U.S...

...Does Assad Need Western Aid...

...Ultimately, Assad hopes to gain international legitimacy for his claim to the Golan Heights...

...The Syrian economy is actually in better shape today than it was three years ago, thanks to the export of some 12 million tons of newly found oil and the influx of hard currency from the Gulf War effort...

...The argument runs that Assad is bargaining from a position of weakness, not strength...

...Syria has contracted to buy 300 new T-72 tanks from Czechoslovakia...

...The prevailing wisdom is not only misguided: it is flat-out dangerous...

...To forestall a further deterioration of its position within the region—and perhaps a pre-emptive Israeli attack—Syria has been forced to agree to direct negotiations...

...In short, the alleged Soviet abandonment of Assad runs counter to what is known...

...Tehran and Damascus often speak of their "strategic" ties, and agreed last April, during Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani's visit to Syria, that confronting the "Zionist entity's . . . annexationist and aggressive policies" is their utmost concern...

...Does Syria Lack a Military Option...

...Ehud Barak, has said the Gulf War and the wilting intifada will give him two to three years to overhaul the IDF, and armies rarely think of launching a war in the middle of a shake-up...

...The new chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, Lt...

...The U.S...

...Far from having been pushed into negotiations by the Soviet retreat, Assad knows that waning Soviet power will mean a cooling in US...

...Its population is expected to double to 25 million over the next two decades...

...But if the economic welfare of his people is of such importance to Assad, why is he spending the money from his Persian Gulf expedition to buy new offensive weapons...

...This being the case, it's alarming that Assad, as a precondition for joining the talks, had Secretary Baker reiterate that "the U.S...

...Israel is unlikely to take the risk...

...What Assad cannot get from the Soviet Union he shops for elsewhere...