George Bush, Statesman

...On SDI, Bush will not make hawks happy: no early deployment, which means that congressional battles over funding could kill the program...

...Evans and Novak recently wrote that Bush's remarks "on defense spending and arms control could, with slight editing, be uttered by any Democratic candidate...

...Obviously, the man is not a lapdog or a wimp: wimps don't join the Navy at age eighteen and fly combat operations off an aircraft carrier, nor do they fly down to El Salvador forty years later and successfully press rightist extremists to curtail death-squad activities...

...conventional force reductions...

...He's familiar with and bows briefly in the direction of the Big Ideas—Marxism-Leninism, Democracy, Rollback, Containment, Mutual Assured Destruction—but then steers the conversation back to details, to specific regions, issues, negotiating stances, historical lessons...

...A lack of vision, cry the vision-seekers...

...away from the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction...

...Regarding meeting regional challenges from the Soviets, the Vice President remarked that "if you see something worth doing, don't be afraid to do it, but don't suggest that that means there is a fundamental change in the system—I think the jury is still out" on the question of fundamental change...

...We ought to rethink, as we move into a high technology age, our whole doctrinal approach to keeping the peace...

...Dukakis is wrong," said the Vice President, growing animated and leaning forward to drive home the point, "to even toy with the idea of a Palestinian state...

...That's the answer," Bush emphasized...

...In the Vice President's view, the INF treaty established two important principles for future negotiations: "the principle of asymmetrical reduction" of forces (they take out more than we do) and the principle of "intrusive verification...

...Some of them are through regional change...

...SDI offers that real potential, even though a lot of people are saying it won't work...

...George Bush did both—at some risk to life and limb...

...You're dealing with realities," he said, "and you've got to be careful...

...We should look at what's happening in the Soviet Union," he added, "as a challenge—meaning, be careful, be cautious—but as an opportunity" too...

...George Bush: the Corporate Republican...

...14 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JULY 1988 democracy...

...After months on the campaign trail, Bush appeared relaxed, almost serene...

...But there are other areas where we ought to look for some kind of manifestation of change—Angola, Central America...

...He said he favors continued support for a policy of rollback...

...One area we can do more with them is in agricultural exports," he said...

...Conservatives still will have plenty to complain about, but Bush is a member of the family: he'll pay attention if hammered at hard enough, and if convinced, he'll act...

...That's a non-starter—so there's no point in wasting one's time talking about that...

...C onservatives have not let George Herbert Walker Bush forget his cantankerous right flank...

...Then there was the widespread and—has anyone noticed?—now faded wimp business...

...Are the complaints simply the sort of pessimistic kvetching the right loves to engage in even after more than seven not altogether unsuccessful years of the unflappably optimistic Ronald Reagan, or does Bush pose se-rious problems for the way conservatives wish to see the foreign policy of the United States conducted...

...And similarly we should work to see that the Cubans get out of Angola, that Angola has a right to be associated with the West and not be dominated by a Marxist master...

...Too willing to cut deals, say those who support the Reagan Doctrine of rolling back Communism and dread a retreat into a lackluster policy of containment...

...Morton Kondracke reported that "pro-Israel lobbyists fear that Bush would defer on Mideast policy to 'the permanent government?—the Near East bureau of the State Department and professionals in the CIA and Pentagon—which tends to be pro-Arab...

...And you always have to contend with the expense of it, too...

...The interview was over...

...He made a point of repeatedly stressing his belief that there have been no "fundamental changes" in the Soviet Union, no basic "changes in direction...

...The 1989-1990 period, with recently elected governments in Washington and Jerusalem, "offers new promise...

...Some right-flyers apparently have forgotten what it was like before these two gentlemen arrived in Washington...

...I'm delighted that the Soviets have agreed to begin taking their forces out of Afghanistan...

...What gives...

...But there isn't any simple formula to it...

...The word "realistic" and warnings about naivete frequently surface...

...umbrella" to lead the way into direct negotiations, "but what I don't want is an ongoing participatory role for the Soviet Union that enhances their power in the Middle East...

...He's tough enough to deal with Gorbachev and any other heavily armed thug to come down the pike...

...Bush is no fool and can be expected to redress some of the more colossal Reagan blunders...

...Prepare for the Long March on SDI...

...You're seeing it in China—it hasn't moved to democracy as you and I know it, but it has moved to a lot more freedom for the people of China...

...The trick is to get Jordan's King Hussein to the table, "get good people involved, and see where we go...

...We have to find a solution to the Palestinian question...

...For conservatives who see the general thrust of Reagan policy as a problem, George Bush will be more of the same...

...His view is that SDI is nowhere near that point...

...Conservatives have been spoiled by the Theater of Reagan: the President's rhetorical flights soar above the political realities of Washington, realities that have done much to humble conservative expectations...

...But, he noted, "I don't see much hope at this juncture for Castro...

...I would not impose a grain embargo for political purposes—that proved to be counterproductive, and it made us lose market share...

...Let's face it: the reason conservatives are not completely happy with George Bush is that we are not completely happy with Ronald Reagan...

...This is definitely a man with his eye on the bottom line and the deficits...

...Hawks of various persuasions suspect that he will allow SDI to be strangled in its research-and-testing crib and START us down the slippery slope of unverifiable and destabilizing long-range nuclear-arms cuts...

...Bush indicated that he would link the START talks to the long-running conventional-force reduction negotiations...

...The pro-Israel camp worries: Is he too pro-Arab...

...Contrary to the Democratic candidates, he is fully in command of the details of complex strategic and international questions and seems to enjoy talking about them...

...The candidate gives the impression he will move very cautiously on START and other matters relating to Western security: conservatives (including some Democrats) can expect Bush to be receptive to their grave reservations about rushing into START without a strategic vision for the post-START future...

...I don't know whether we've rolled back Communism in Afghanistan, but it looks like we've rolled back Soviet occupation—and that's a very worthy thing...

...Bush said that the U.S...

...The glitz and gloss of the Reagan era is passing: here's a quiet conservative, with a flinty New England reticence and a dash of Texas courtliness...

...It's very difficult for me to separate the START talks from the conventional force," he said...

...His 1986 trip to Saudi Arabia, where he spoke of "stabilizing" falling oil prices, is often cited by his critics, as is the remark by his chief national security adviser, Donald Gregg, that Bush does not share the same "gutfeeling" for Israel as President Reagan...

...The plane began to head down over the green hummocks and slate rivers of West Virginia...

...My guess is that, if elected, he'll continue to fund ongoing attempts to roll back Communism but will move very slowly into new areas...

...In an aside to a question on rollback versus containment, the Vice President recalled the Hungarian revolt of 1956...

...I caught up with the candidate aboard Air Force Two on a recent flight down to West Virginia and discussed some of the foreign policy issues of concern to conservatives...

...How do you find those shifts...

...A stewardess buzzed forward with the candidate's lunch: a grilled cheese sandwich...

...Around the same time, Richard Viguerie told the Wall Street Journal that a Bush candidacy in 1988 would restore to the GOP "the image of the little man in the top hat in the Monopoly game . . . destroying hopes for a Republican majority...

...I still feel that the suggestion in the Reagan Plan of the early eighties—the confederation with Jordan—some solution to the Palestinian question based on a broad formula of that nature—is important...

...I asked the Vice President what he would do to avoid some of the problems that have made for an inconsistent or incoherent Reagan Administration foreign policy...

...I had been getting signals from the press aide to wrap it up for quite some time...

...I would strive to keep the contras in business...

...The Vice President would not object to a U.N...

...The world's in a state of change...

...It seems that George Bush's problems with the conservatives have a lot to do with style and a little to do with substance...

...I asked him if he would re-arm the contras if the Arias Plan failed...

...I would like tohave policymakers at State and supportive people at NSC in terms of policy—if I campaign on freedom and democracy in the hemisphere . . . I'd like to have the top people be people who are supportive of that concept—of how do we then implement policy based on the premise that we are committed to the expansion of democracy in the hemisphere...

...The problem is more verification than the question of whether it's good to have a fifty-percent reduction in nuclear arms...

...As trade with Moscow picks up speed in the Reagan twilight=Abel again rushes to pull Cain out of the ditch," Pat Buchanan tartly observed—dark murmurings of "detente" issue from the wings...

...I don't think it's just a benign situation of leave everything the way it is...

...The next administration, Democratic or Republican, will seek to expand trade with the Soviet Union...

...It was eerie," said an aide who was with Bush in El Salvador...

...When you see an uprising in Hungary—some were urging those people tothe barricades and then they were left out there, their lives lost and no monuments...

...Bush would "take a good look at what's happening internally in Israel, get a good feel of what's happening on the ground in Jordan and to some degree in Syria, and then restart the effort to try to bring direct negotiations—no pre-set agenda—between Hussein" and whoever is running the Israeli government...

...There isn't any secret new peace plan for the Middle East...

...President Bush would not push for early deployment of the Strategic Defense Initiative...

...George Will called him a "lapdog" in 1986 and has been peeved at the Veeper ever since...

...Bush's stance on Israel and related Mideast questions has been the subject of much worried speculation in pro-Israel circles...

...budget quandaries frequently came up in our talk...

...I think we'll see some of the dictatorships of the right give way to more Micah Morrison is deputy director of the Committee for the Free World and editor of its monthly publication,0=WContentions...

...But Bush is not a great communicator, and for eight years he has been working in the shadow of one...

...must continue to look for signs of fundamental shifts in the Soviet Union's domestic and foreign policies...

...Bush says he will exact a good price for trade expansion...

...Big Mike Gorbachev clearly is going to have major trouble keeping the comrades off the freedom train now that they've been offered a glimpse of perestroika...

...Watch Mozambique for an indication of the future of rollback...

...The role of the United States is to be strong advocates for freedom and democracy—hold that banner high—and wherever possible offer hope and support for those that are struggling...

...In a theoretical world," he said, SDI "clearly" could move the U.S...

...In the first place, the conventional imbalance is so clear that it has to be rectified if we're going to deter aggression...

...THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JULY 1988 15...

...7 / JULY 1988 Micah Morrison GEORGE BUSH, STATESMAN In an exclusive interview, the Vice President submits a foreign policy for conservatives to reflect on...

...He is cautiously supportive of the START talks, which aim for a fifty-percent reduction in strategic nuclear forces...

...I strongly favor agricultural exports to the Soviet Union...

...On trade with Moscow, Bush wantsto tighten up the export control system on high-technology, strategically important items...

...about verification problems...

...Bush stressed that the U.S...

...and the need to clarify the role of SDI before the START agreement is inked...

...Bush would not expand relations with the Cuban strongman unless Castro "makes clear that he wants to forego his revolutionary zeal...

...You could hear artillery fire in the hills, and the Vice President just weighed right into those guys...

...I believe that our system—capitalism, freedom, and democracy—is so superior to Marxism" that it is simply no contest...

...Secondly, it's the costly side of the defense equation and I'm still very worried about our budget deficit...

...And so, you take a realistic look at the world, you keep your philosophical commitment to freedom and democracy, and you strive, where possible, to help others achieve freedom and democracy...

...Absolutely," he said...

...We hear all the criticisms from the liberals and the Democrats, but great progress has been made and I really believe we're on the threshold of a much more democratic hemisphere...

...He supports "thorough" research and testing...

...Of dictatorships in Latin America, Bush said he was "optimistic about the hemisphere...

...T here is a restrained cast to Bush's statements...

...The candidate's view of the Soviet Union is well informed and solidly conservative...

...He'll wade into problems in Latin America and the Mideast, but it will likely be a blend of old methods and plans—don't expect aggressive new initiatives...

...But Reagan is still a man you can depend on to do the right thing in certain clutch situations—walking out of Reykjavik, upgrading the naval deployment in the Persian Gulf—and I think the same can be said of Bush...

...But in terms of a naive view that all is well now and we're on some kind of new plane of 'detente,' I don't believe that...

...he does not engage in broad intellectual or rhetorical sweeps...

...He said the "elections in Israel [currently scheduled for November of 1988] will make clear the direction" in which Jerusalem will travel...

...was "an ally and strong supporter of Israel," as well as "a catalytic friend...

...With Bush, one gets reality without the smooth rhetoric...

...It won't be cheap...

...A Bush Administration's nuclear and NATO strategy, says the Vice President, would put a strong emphasis on getting the Soviet Union to reduce its conventional forces...

...Bush also mentioned that he was "emotionally attached" to reducing chemical and biological weapons, but warned of extreme verification problems in these areas as well...

...We should "push forward" based on "those two principles," he said...

...After months on the campaign trail, Bush appeared relaxed, almost serene...

...A major question is how far President Bush would go in handling uprisings in the heart of the Soviet empire...

...Uninspiring on the contras, Central American activists protest...

...the not-tough-enough Republican...

...Absolutely...

...Bush referred to the "erosion of presidential power" at the hands of Congress and took a gentle swipe at the warring bureaucratic interests that have dogged Reagan policy...

...the Establishment Republican...

...It is, more or less, the policy of the late Reagan years...