Capitol Ideas/Old Debates, New Twists

Bethell, Tom

CAPITOL IDEAS OLD DEBATES, NEW TWISTS rr here is something rather delicious 1 about the potential arms control agreement on intermediate range missiles. For many years, as Irving Kristol pointed...

...You could spend hours clipping newspapers and poring over hard-to-read medical journals, but few of us have the time and energy for that...
...They may say they will, but if so you can be sure the verification provisions will have enough loopholes to permit cheating...
...conservatives will derail the treaty...
...Having said that on behalf of Krauss's critics, I should stress they make the fundamental error of assuming that alliance depends on subsidy, as though a country will only be our friend as long as it is in our debt...
...At Geneva were negotiating on the numbers but we're not negotiating on verification...
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...can't possibly be expected to stand up to the Red Army—never mind that their population and GNP exceed that of the Soviets, by a considerable margin...
...And there is no way they will cut up 440 of theirs in return for 316 of ours...
...And as these people are mostly Republican, if only by default, I submit that the Republicans will once again win the presidential election in 1988, on the theory that the "party of ideas" wins...
...My belief, I am told also shared by former assistant secretary of defense Richard Perle, is that the Soviet military brass in charge of rocket forces have enough political clout to ensure that their precious missiles don't get carved up no matter what Mikhail Gorbachev or the KGB says...
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...Michael Krepon of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has already written an article for the Washington Post suggesting that "the best solution might be to supplement space surveillance with data exchanges and on-site sensors to monitor production rates outside plant gates...
...At Columbia University a few months ago, Eugene Rostow noted in a debate with Kristol that "we fought two world wars to prevent Europe from being unified under Subscribe to EXECUTIVE HEALTH REPORT Today...
...That is a danger, yes...
...really give nuclear weapons to West Germany...
...A man may be willing to sell his house "in principle," but it would be absurd to talk of a "deal" before the price was discussed...
...Or do the Russians move the missiles back into the Soviet Union and say, "Trust us—Paul Nitze does...
...the Soviets...
...For many years, as Irving Kristol pointed out in the Wall Street Journal, our allies have been "piously and disingenuously stressing the importance of arms control negotiations as one alternative to an expensive and politically unpopular buildup of NATO's conventional military forces...
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...Four hundred and forty missiles...
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...It's something to think about, surely, for those who believe that alliance depends on subsidy...
...With the Americans threatening to pull out their cruise and Pershing II missiles, West European leaders might well consider this the forerunner to further U.S...
...Realistic control...
...The resulting turmoil in the Western Alliance will constitute a good test of the rival theories of NATO held by Irving Kristol, and by Norman Podhoretz of Commentary...
...Army War College journal), Colonel Henry Gold asks: "Who in Europe would be happy with a bigger Bundeswehr or a nuclear armed Germany...
...It will honor the Most Strangely Respected Reaganite...
...Maybe they'll have at them with sledgehammers...
...Then there is a danger of coming to an agreement on numbers without an agreement on verification...
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...decoupling" from Europe...
...Kristol posits that European weakness is a result of their subsidization...
...It will be interesting to see what hap- pens...
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...Agreement "in principle" means no agreement in detail...
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...It probably won't be signed Strange New Respect The award this year goes to Charles Everett Koop, Surgeon General of the United States, for putting condoms before continence...
...The "trap" is to have "negotiated" missile reductions without first having established how they are to be verified...
...Kristol's view is the more optimistic: the Europeans are basically sound but we have skewed their incentives, in typical Yankee fashion, with dollars...
...12 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 1987 Maybe we will have a treaty after all...
...None of this has been worked out," the man from the Arms Control Agency told me...
...Nothing, you can be sure, is further from the minds of that trio of arms control enthusiasts, George Shultz, Paul Nitze, and Ronald Reagan...
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...I remember Malcolm Muggeridge once saying that the Americans since World War II have lavished money on the world—and have been rewarded by anti-Americanism...
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...Was it really in our interest to have a Europe "so independent and so nuclear...
...The opponents of U.S...
...At the time all we were told was that the Soviets had agreed to on-site inspection "in principle...
...disengagement from Europe should be able to make something of all this...
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...Even if an INF Treaty is signed, the Europeans should congratulate themselves for having inveigled us into subsidizing their welfare states for far longer than anyone might have expected at the end of World War II...
...U.S...
...This is also a strategy for bringing pressure to bear on such strict-verification fuss-budgets: don't impede "the process" just at the moment when a "breakthrough" is at hand and Reagan is about to win his place in the history books...
...is a visiting media fellow at the Hoover Institution and The American Spectator's Washington correspondent...
...The point is that you can only really "debate" someone who shares basic assumptions with you...
...Egypt is another country where we should be on the lookout for a rising tide of aid-inspired anti-Americanism...
...Remember that their SS-20 missiles can be driven about on trucks...
...Thus we must all hang together—rather than separately from the rope we have so eagerly sold...
...And reviewing Krauss's book in Parameters (U.S...
...In three words—trust the Russians...
...But liberal and leftist journals have taken no notice, suggesting that, as in the domestic economic realm in 1980, the relevant policy debate in the U.S...
...It has triggered a debate on NATO, with lengthily critical reviews in Commentary, the New York Times Book Review, Policy Review, and this magazine (February 1987...
...Verification is the price of arms control at a time when the relevant missiles can be hidden in warehouses...
...My own guess is that a strange bedfellow alliance of nervous Europeans, politically alert Democrats, and traditional U.S...
...Notice that the prospective treaty is by no means intended to test these rival theories...
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...Treaty opponents should be able to make hay with the Verification Rap...
...verification proposals weren't presented at Geneva until April 23—a week after Secretary Shultz returned from his feckless trip to Moscow...
...and toward their own country accusatory...
...He suggests that West Germany's "period of rehabilitation has come to a close...
...Are they really going to carve up 440 of them...
...If they haven't already done so by the time this sees print, I will be surprised...
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...13 issueTh ifr the U.S...
...Podhoretz is more pessimistic: the West by Tom Bethell is in a more fundamental state of decay...
...I was always brought up to believe that if you want to keep a friend it's better not to lend him money...
...And of course there will be voices aplenty in the U.S...
...I mean, what are they going to do, cut them up with oxy-acetylene torches while Dan Rather and his television crew film the spectacle...
...On this theory I would predict rising anti-Americanism in Israel, considering the rapidly increasing aid we have giventhem in the last decade...
...You can hardly expect them to be worrying about how to defend against the Soviets when they see the real threat to the world as emanating from: corporate greed, unjust income disparities, the Pentagon, pollution, the death penalty, and "discrimination" against various legally privileged groups...
...In fact, Reagan's hunger for a treaty—a piece of paper signed by the Russians that he can take with him into the history books—is itself a sign of quite gratuitous Western weakness, and as such constitutes good evidence for Podhoretz's world view...
...A recent book by Melvyn Krauss, How NATO Weakens the West, presents the incentivist case against continued U.S...
...A spokesman for Adelman confirmed on April 20 what this meant: the Soviets have not agreed to any details of on-site inspection...
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...It's time to stop fighting the last war...
...The premise shared by those who support or disagree with Krauss, no matter how vehemently, is that the Soviet Union is a real threat, and how we defend against it is a matter of importance...
...Krauss recently suggested giving the Pershings to the Europeans: let them negotiate them away—or keep them...
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...therefore Kristol's view should be put to the test...
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...Nothing could be further from the truth...
...I agree, and I think that an unstated but continuing distrust of Germans has been much overlooked in this debate...
...TB THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 1987 11 and is highly unlikely to be ratified...
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...Can it be done...
...The liberal-left can hardly be expected to join in this debate, because their attitude toward the Soviet Union, whether they know it or not, is apologist rather than cautionary...
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...subsidization of our allies...
...On the other hand Norman Podhoretz and his followers believe that European weakness is part of a more general "decline of the West...
...Podhoretz, therefore, would predict a further decline in European resolve in the face of American withdrawal...
...Sometimes their change of heart is heralded by a Washington Post "Style" section article, quoting a source as saying that they are looked upon with a "strange new respect...
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...The day before, April 19, James Reston had written a pathetic column for the New York Times praising George Shultz, "back from Moscow in Holy Week like an answer to the world's prayers for peace, speaking about a break in the tension and a realistic control of nuclear weapons...
...Leaving it to last reduces it to the statusof minor detail, important only to obstructionist foot-draggers who never were too keen on arms control in the first place...
...But verification is the difficult part...
...You're not...
...Not if they can get us to sign a treaty without strict compliance provisions...
...Now they may get rather more arms control than they had bargained for...
...What happens to the warheads...
...A week after Reykjavik, in October1986, Arms Control Director Kenneth Adelman told me: "We have not been able to get out of the White House specific guidance on negotiating verification for the last year...
...to say that we should go on paying for the poor dears because they Tom Bethel...
...The SNR Committee is reported to be considering several candidates, but sources say that Nancy Reagan has the inside track...
...I'm surprised we haven't heard more about this State Department skulduggery already...
...Thus he would predict greater European resolve in the face of an American pullback...
...Accordingly they apostasize, preferring the good opinion of the news media to their own opinions...
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...By temperament I would be inclined to agree with Podhoretz, but there is no denying that economic incentives act powerfully even on those who do not understand that their behavior responds to such incentives...
...I need hardly say that there are major problems with the proposed INF "zero option," as with all arms control delusions, but I am on balance inclined to hope that it comes to pass...

Vol. 20 • June 1987 • No. 6


 
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