The Public Policy/Shall We Register Youth?
Bandow, Doug
THE PUBLIC POLICY SHALL WE REGISTER YOUTH? W hen Jimmy Carter reimposed draft registration following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Ronald Reagan was one of the program's severest critics....
...Government programs, once started, are hard to dismantle...
...and volunteers...
...They want to do their part in preserving their society...
...Training capacity is critical because advanced registration saves time only if early inductees can be drilled immediately...
...reservists awaiting training (RAT), most of whom have just joined the reserves...
...A brief two years later, however, after his election and a bitter internal Administration fight, President Reagan decided to retain registration...
...But in 1980, the Service developed a sophisticated post-mobilization sign-up under which the first draftee would arrive at camp on M-plus-17...
...and resolve...
...But the most serious justification for registration—the one the present Administration clings to—is that it will speed up the induction of young men for active service...
...The program stands today as one of Jimmy Carter's enduring legacies...
...With leading Democrats calling for a return to the draft, there would be no better way for the Administration to demonstrate its commitment to the volunteer military than to abolish registration...
...It is extremely difficult to project wartime manpower needs—an estimate which drives the entire registration program—because it's never apparent ahead of time what the casualty rate in the prospective conflict will be...
...Members would receive a modest financial stipend, perhaps $100 annually, and would be invited to become part of the "military family" through involvement with the active forces, reserves, and service associations...
...Selective Service would have to issue 600,000 draft notices to assure 100,000 inductions...
...An additional, say, 20,000 members could be recruited to meet any unexpected contingencies...
...Selective Service also argues that the ongoing program would result in a total "yield"—compliance rate multiplied by data accuracy—far greater than would a post-M-day plan...
...But it is unclear how reliable the current list is...
...Though additional young men sign up over time, the peacetime data deteriorates rapidly as registrants move...
...Consider a Reserve Volunteer Force (RVF), a pool of untrained volunteerswho would be subject to immediate call-up upon mobilization...
...Some supporters of the sign-up view it as a symbol of military toughness Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute...
...that total could hit 162,500, depending upon how many IRR members required retraining...
...As a Special Assistant to the President for Policy Development in the Reagan White House, he worked with the Military Manpower Task Force in 1981 and 1982...
...At the time Director Bernard Rostker told Congress, "Defense imposed this more demanding delivery schedule because peacetime registration makes earlier induction possible...
...So what is needed is a registration analogue of the All Volunteer Force, something that provides a sure source of emergency manpower but is simultaneously consistent with America's tradition of individual liberty...
...Though the Carter Administration rejected this plan as overly optimistic, the Selective Service director nevertheless conceded that his agency could still meet DOD's requirements without advanced registration...
...Further, the Army estimates that 15,000 IRR members would have to be retrained, but this number is probably low...
...And a report by Reagan's Military Manpower Task Force, published in 1982, included as an option an accelerated program that expedited the handling of the names of those who faced early induction...
...Thus, if all available military personnel were called up, at least 77,500 training spaces would be filled...
...those alarming projections of thousands of wasted training slots, which pre-registration was designed to fill, were a mirage...
...Indeed, in November 1980 the Defense Department (DOD) accelerated the induction schedule for the third time- in three years, based on the improved ability of Selective Service to deliver draftees—because of registration...
...These female DEP volunteers could be quickly and usefully trained and deployed...
...that it is the best method to ensure our preparedness in the event of an emergency mobilization...
...So too with the pool of 22,000 RAT members: roughly 6,500 are in high school and 1,200 of the remainder are women, leaving the Pentagon estimate at just 14,300 "male availables...
...Today potential drafteeshave to be classified and their claims for exemptions and "conscientious objector" status heard...
...Congress authorized the draft on May 18, 1917...
...Richard Danzig, then Principal Duty Assistant Secretary of Defense, testified in 1979: "We have lots of uses for a training base before we would be terribly interested in raw recruits...
...A highly critical GAO report in 1982 estimated that 85 percent of young men did not notify Selective Service of their new addresses: "As a result, address information for between one-fifth and two-fifths of the registrants in the prime induction group . . . could be outdated...
...To determine the impact of peacetime registration on America's military preparedness one must ask four different questions: •Are current manpower requirements exaggerated...
...The sample may not be representative, but it's hard to have confidence in a system that reached barely half of those it intended to prosecute...
...That is, the Defense Department has historically asked Selective Service to provide more draftees more quickly simply because, first, space was available to train them, and second, because more draftees were available...
...Unless the answer to all four questions is "no," the draft sign-up does not advance America's security...
...The Selective Service now estimates that with a peacetime sign-up it could deliver the first inductee for training on M-plus-13...
...But even assuming that DOD's requirements actually reflect America's security needs, advanced registration has value only if it provides manpower that would otherwise be unavailable...
...This phenomenon, said former Selective Service Director Thomas Turnage, "tells me that the young men of today love their country...
...These figures actually understate the current volunteer potential because the number of young males has increased sharply...
...Many observers question whether the Army can handle so many people, but even if these figures are accurate, registration isn't required...
...The equivalent 38 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR OCTOBER 1987 number of volunteers today would be roughly 72,500 and 84,600, or a two-month total of 157,100...
...Official army figures demonstrate that this is not the case...
...There are two issues: how many men could the army train, and are other sources of manpower available...
...Would enough people be available without registration...
...In particular, Pentagon planners like the illusion of security that peacetime registration provides...
...In any case, there is good evidence that we wouldn't even need such a surge in enlistment...
...Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) memby Doug Bandow bers, who must be retrained before being sent into combat...
...In 1985 Rep...
...Without pre-registration, it figures on Mplus-69...
...Four major categories of personnel would be available for training immediately after mobilization: Delayed Entry Program (DEP) participants, who have agreed to enter the service within a year but who could be called up immediately...
...It's time to raise America's entire armed forces in a manner consistent with our fundamental principles of freedom, which the military is charged with defending...
...In World War II the first inductee reported for duty sixty-three days after he had registered, earlier than the Selective Service System says a post-Mday plan would take today, despite the current system's vastly superior technology...
...In the first thirty days after the attack on Pearl Harbor, approximately 42,000 men volunteered for regular army service...
...At the end of eight years (the end of draft eligibility), almost three-fourths of the addresses could be outdated...
...Les Aspin revealed that of the 183 men then threatened with prosecution for failure to register, only 95 had actually been contacted by Selective Service...
...Are there 150,000 young men ready to serve in the event of an emergency...
...Indeed, more young men also signed up after the invasion of Grenada and the Soviet downing of the Korean airliner...
...DOD excludes all 25,300 18-year-olds still in high school, because it is "army policy" not to take young men out of school...
...Selective Service established a verification program in response to the GAO study, but the changes have neverbeen officially tested...
...RVF volunteers would sign up for a set term, during which they would be THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR OCTOBER 1987 39 obligated to enter the military if activated during a national emergency...
...What is clear, however, is that the Pentagon's official manpower requirements have been based on its training capacity, not on some measure of combat necessity...
...others argue, more abstractly, that the program enforces a basic civic obligation...
...another 18,000 men would be required for reception centers in order to maintain a constant troop flow...
...Is the current program more efficient than its alternatives...
...Before registration was instituted in 1980, DOD did not want the first draftee until M-plus-30...
...That remains the case today...
...An RVF would offer the military a better source of emergency manpower than does the current system...
...In fact, this schedule—which would have provided the first draftee within thirty-six days—could have been advanced even further by, for example, storing registration materials in individual post offices and nearby postal centers rather than trucking them in after mobilization...
...Using the Pentagon's highly pessimistic estimates, roughly 130,000 men are needed to guarantee sufficient manpower for two months...
...In an emergency, however, the military should rely first on individuals who have volunteered to serve...
...After developing a post-M-dayregistration plan to meet the Army's manpower requirements once the RVF is exhausted, the Selective Service would be placed in "deep standby," with only enough employees necessary to administer the RVF...
...Moreover, the experience with previous mass registrations demonstrates that Selective Service could provide the first inductee earlier than M-plus-69 with a post-mobilization system...
...According to Pentagon specialists, the Army's current emergency training capacity is about 81,000 people within thirty days after the day of mobilization (M-plus-30) and 153,000 total by M-plus-60...
...The DEP program annually attracts about 40,500 recruits, but the Pentagon counts only 12,500 of these toward filling the training base...
...Just six years ago the official Army forecast was 21,000, and some DOD officials say privately that as many as 100,000 reservists would need refresher training...
...Much of the Service's budget ($26.1 million in 1986) could be eliminated...
...the first soldier was inducted on July 30, only seventy-three days later...
...Candidate Reagan argued that the sign-up would "do little to enhance our military preparedness" and would run counter to "the very values that our society is committed to defending...
...ould America count on enough volunteers to fill such a gap...
...The RVF could provide an initial screening of volunteers' skills—such as knowledge of a foreign language or experience as a mechanic—to allow earlier induction of individuals who might meet a special need of the services...
...Almost certainly yes...
...schools could give DEP members their diplomas as a matter of course...
...In fact, these have grown only slightly...
...Not only could RVF members help fill unique mobilization shortages, but these soldiers would automatically report once called up...
...Is it possible to accelerate a post-mobilization sign-up...
...In short, peacetime registration is nowdeemed necessary because we have peacetime registration...
...The Defense Department also does not count the 7,200 women in the DEP, even though it expects to enlist 80,000 women during the first six months after a mobilization...
...Assuming a need for 99,000 inductees by M-plus-30 and 171,000 by M-plus-60, the maximum number of available spots would be 21,500 and 93,500, respectively...
...Not only did the number of recruits jump sharply after the bombing of the Marine barracks in Lebanon, but draft registrations also rose...
...Yet when Reagan agreed to retain the registration program in early 1982, he relied on wildly inflated Pentagon estimates of future training capacities, which were expected to double by 1986...
...49,000 joined during the second month...
Vol. 20 • October 1987 • No. 10
