The Public Policy/What Reagan Buildup?
Trachtenberg, David
_ THE PUBLIC...
...To its credit, the Administration is seeking to modernize all components of U.S...
...advantage has now disappeared...
...According to re-cent Army testimony, the U.S...
...In conventional forces, the United States continues to be outproduced in many critical areas...
...This year publication had to be delayed two months...
...The United States is withdrawing five warheads for every Pershing II and GLCM warhead deployed in Europe...
...In part, these cuts have come about because of Congress's concern with the size of the federal budget deficit and with reports of Pentagon "waste...
...This will leave the MX missile force just as vulnerable to attack as the current Minuteman missiles the MX is designed to replace, while presenting the Soviets with a greater incentive to strike first in a crisis...
...systems as compensation under the terms of the SALT II Treaty...
...Cuts in the defense budget will in all probability affect the readiness and capability of U.S...
...Brooklyn D.A...
...The news-papers had started checking Botnick's credentials after he got into a fistfight with Barry Liebowitz, head of the Doctor's Council, the union of city-employed doctors...
...It is the cumulative effect of this gap in investment which has led to the major military imbalances that grow more critical every year...
...In the face of a determined Soviet effort, U.S...
...In addition, the latest intelligence estimate jointly presented to Congress by the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency notes that over the past ten years, "Soviet strategic forces received roughly 3,500 ICBMs and SLBMs, three times as much as the United States procured...
...Some argue that the Midgetman will be too costly to build and too difficult to deploy, or that it will be too difficult to verify under an arms control agreement...
...A comparison of weapons systems produced in 1985 shows the following: US...
...Bess Myerson, the 1945 Miss America and now the city's commissioner of cultural affairs, is under investigation after family court judge Hortense Gabel drastically reduced the alimonypayments for Myerson's long-time companion, Carl Capasso, a big-time city contractor...
...Minuteman ICBMs, is now being deployed in the same fixed Minuteman silos the Ad-ministration admits are already vulnerable to Soviet attack...
...It was only after the election that the Administration's rhetoric on defense shifted toward a more sober assessment of the U.S.-Soviet military balance...
...Secretary Weinberger has said that at least 95 percent of U.S...
...Estimates show the Soviets now enjoy at least a six-toone advantage in shorter-range tactical ballistic missile launchers deployed in Europe...
...forces of today will not be fighting the U.S...
...By many of the measures which we have used to compare our forces, we have indeed lost ground...
...The largest annual rate of real growth over the past ten years (more than 12 percent) was in fiscal year 1981—the final year of the Carter Administration...
...Nevertheless, Americans seem to be more familiar with stories of over-priced hammers than with the fact that the B-1B bomber is being delivered on schedule and under budget...
...and $71,000 to former deputy commissioner Robert Mackesak...
...ICBMs—unlike the current Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) which focuses on exotic technologies that are many years, if not decades, from realization...
...By most assessments, the conventional war-fighting capability of the U.S...
...Approximately 1,400 U.S...
...In any conflict, however, the U.S...
...After an increase to 5.9 per-cent growth in 1985, fiscal year 1986 budget authority actually declined by 6.2 percent...
...ibroff re-signed and the city government quickly folded HYFIN into its own municipal credit union...
...A sound defense cannot be obtained "on the cheap," yet just over 6 percent of the nation's economic output goes for defense, hardly a disproportionate share...
...Provides the historical perspective that has been almost totally lacking elsewhere...
...deterrent capability in Europe is declining...
...by David Trachtenberg During the 1984 presidential campaign, the Reagan Administration naturally chose to emphasize the successes rather than the shortcomings of its defense program...
...air-launched cruise missiles has been cut by more than half, while work continues on an advanced cruise missile for future deployment...
...While the Reagan Administration has been accused of favoring strategic over conventional forces, the percentage of defense resources allocated to strategic forces has changed little since the Carter Administration—less than 15 percent of the defense budget, another fact that is not widely known...
...Eventual deployment of a more survivable Midgetman missile is uncertain because of the Administration's lukewarm support of the program...
...They will be fighting Soviet forces, which have also modernized extensively...
...A, 1030 Fifteenth St., N.W., Washington, D.C...
...This is the fulcrum on which all other military power rests—a fact the Soviets have consistently recognized...
...levels...
...On the day that Friedman was indicted, state and federal officials raided HYFIN"Help Your Friend in Need"--a Brooklyn credit union accused of mismanaging its $83 million in assets...
...Michael Lazar, the city's former transportation commissioner, has left a trail of scandal all over New York City...
...improvements remain inadequate to make up for almost two decades of neglect...
...Simon has also been named in a civil suit charging he gave a city-owned Bronx property to a politically connected firm that used it for an open-air concrete-recycling operation...
...The United States continues to phase out older tactical nuclear weapons from the NATO stockpile...
...ICBMs dangerously open to a Soviet strike...
...Existing technology makes it possible to deploy a timely and effective ballistic missile defense of U.S...
...nuclear weapons are to be withdrawn from Europe by 1989, bringing the NATO stockpile of warheads down to its lowest level in twenty years...
...armed forces is better today than five years ago...
...launch platforms removed from service in recent years...
...If the United States fails to exercise this responsibility, there is no other nation, or coalition of nations, that is capable of filling the void...
...An estimated 15-17 percent of Soviet GNP goes to military purposes...
...The limited deployment of cruise missiles on B-52 bombers, begun in 1982, does not reduce the vulnerability of those bombers to Soviet attack since most are deployed too close to U.S...
...John Manfredi, Philip Collela, and Rocco De Nigris, an area manager and two general inspectors with the City Board of Education, have been indicted for collecting several hundred thousand dollars in kickbacks over nine years on contracts for maintenance and repairs in the public schools...
...A defense program that will not halt the unfavorable trends in the U.S.-Soviet military balance, let alone reverse them, is not a defense program...
...Dust from the site has nearly closed down a neighboring Coca-Cola plant andforced Shopwell, Inc., a private super-market chain, to move its warehouses to New Jersey, costing the Bronx 1,000 jobs...
...Although the Tridents carry more missiles than the older Poseidon sub-marines, they do not offset the greater number of U.S...
...While the United States debates the merits of fifty MX missiles, the Soviets complement their already huge ICBM force by deploying modern SS-24 and SS-25 missiles...
...This is one reason why Soviet military production levels far exceed U.S...
...Bronx Congressman Mario Biaggi, Bronx Democratic chairman Stanley Simon, and Brooklyn Democratic Chairman Meade Esposito—and in-deed the whole Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn Democratic organizations—are all being investigated by federal grand juries for a variety of schemes...
...Here is the scoreboard as of mid-July: *Queens Borough President Donald Manes killed himself in March, less than a month before a federal grand jury charged that he and Bronx Democratic boss Stanley Friedman had engineered a huge scam in which $5 million was to be raked out of contracts awarded by the city's Parking Violations Bureau...
...For example, last year alone the Soviets produced 100 ICBMs, compared with none for the U.S...
...Against these reductions, Soviet shorter-range nuclear weapons targeted against Western Europe have grown in number and accuracy...
...In the meantime, little emphasis has been placed on reducing existing U.S...
...A fraction of Soviet SS-21, SS-22, and SS-23 ballistic missiles are capable of destroying almost every one of NATO's critical military installations...
...Samuel P. Huntington Harvard University "An even-handed and comprehensive compendium of responsible views across the spectrum...
...arms control proposal, which calls for a ban on all mobile ICBMs, inspires little confidence that mobile missiles will ever be deployed by the United States...
...The eventual deployment of 108 U.S...
...He has been indicted in the Manes-Friedman case...
...This is the first time in fifteen years that defense budget authority is lower in absolute terms than in the previous year...
...The relationship of defense to the deficit, however, is widely misunderstood...
...THE BIG APPLE'S NOMENKLATURA by William 'flicker Every spring New York City publishes "The Green Book," an official directory of city personnel...
...portionate share of spending cuts...
...The United States, by contrast, spends almost half of its defense budget on personnel...
...Although completely private, HYFIN had developed incestuous ties with the City Taxi and Limousine Commission, which licenses New York's 11,800 cabs...
...conventional forces first...
...So many city officials were being indicted and suspended that the book was already out of date...
...These trends can be expected to continue, even if the Ad-ministration's defense request had been approved by Congress...
...Recent figures indicate that the Soviets continue to outproduce the United States in every major category of strategic systems...
...He was also part-owner of the decaying Candler building on West 41st Street, home of the Taxi and Limousine Commission, when it miraculously escaped condemnation by the city-run Times Square Redevelopment Project...
...Others believe it will undercut the Administration's push for another fifty MX missiles, even though Congress is unlikely to appropriate funds for additional MX deployment...
...New York is once again deep in a game of—ho-hum—political scandal...
...While accepting large deposits from cab companies, HYFIN had made unreported loans of $244,000 to Commissioner Jay Throff William Ricker is The American Spectator's New York correspondent...
...The Soviets today possess some 450 bombers compared with 327 for the United States...
...Such an attack would leave the United States with an inaccurate sea-based force incapable of retaliating against Soviet missile forces held in reserve, and a greatly diminished bomber force unable to retaliate promptly and unlikely to penetrate the extensive Soviet air defense network...
...Some of these systems actually cost less to-day in real terms than they did four or five years ago...
...Pershing II ballistic missiles and 464 ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) is more than offset by already deployed Soviet SS-20 missiles, carrying more than 2,000 warheads, and the reduction in other U.S...
...defense budget authority (the amount appropriated for immediate and future disbursement...
...Fixed-Wing Combat 320 700 Aircraft Rotary-Wing Aircraft 235 550 Attack Helicopters 50 250 Other Military 185 300 Helicopters Tanks 1,375 2,700 Other Armored 1,700 3,500 Vehicles Infantry Combat 655 2,500 Vehicles Artillery, Mortars, 330 4,100 Rocket Launchers Anti-Aircraft Artillery 25 100 Major Surface 8 8 Combatants Amphibious Ships 2 2 Attack Submarines 3 6 U.S...
...The planned procurement of U.S...
...Friedman and six others are now awaiting trial...
...Given the unexpected qualitative improvements to Soviet conventionalforces, the U.S...
...In the critical area of military in-vestments (spending on research and development, procurement, and military construction), the Soviets haveoutspent the United States by some $500 billion since 1970...
...Botnick is being investigated for shaking a $5,000 campaign contribution for Mayor Koch out of Nu-Med...
...Send to: Ethics and Public Policy Center, Dept...
...McLaughlin is also charged with bilking $250,000 from New Mexico heiress Ann Maytag while administering her trust fund, using Maytag's money to cover up the kickback...
...Congress may agree...
...The Air Force has repeatedly told Congress that "using a small portion of their ICBM force, the Soviets could destroy most of our current ICBMs in a first-strike...
...Today, the increasing accuracy of Soviet ICBMs has left U.S...
...But the problem again is that in strategic systems, as elsewhere, the United States has not kept pace with Soviet efforts...
...The latest U.S...
...Victor Botnick, protege of Mayor Edward Koch, was forced out as chair-man of the board of the city's Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) after it was revealed he had lied about having a college degree...
...For starters, consider the area of defense spending, which is the only part of the federal budget determined by external factors: the nation's domestic priorities can be set and changed by Americans...
...modernization program has been matched by a Soviet program that has "moved more aggressively than any of our estimates predicted...
...Moreover, most Americans erroneously think that the United States spends several times as much on nuclear forces as on non-nuclear forces, and they are unaware that in the past ten years the Soviets have outspent the United States on strategic forces by a margin greater than three to one...
...lb make way for the newest Trident last year, the United States dismantled a Poseidon submarine in order to comply with the unratified SALT II treaty, which the Soviets are violating...
...The balance in European-based nuclear forces has also continued to shift in the Soviets' favor...
...promise or Peril The Strate& . Defense Initiative 0410 N^ zbigniew gr//ez lns.M...
...A month before Judge Gabel changed the terms of the settlement, Myerson hired her daughter as a personal aide...
...U.S.S.R...
...The annual growth rate in the cost of major weapons systems fell from 14 percent in 1980 to less than 1 percent in 1984...
...As a percentage of the federal budget, defense spending accounts for only one quarter of expenditures—down from one-third in the early 1970s—yet it has absorbed a disproDavid Trachtenberg is senior defense analyst of the Committee on the Present Danger...
...strategic nuclear forces...
...coasts and only a small fraction are on stand-by alert...
...ICBMs are vulnerable to Soviet attack...
...The "If you are going to read only one volume on SDI, this is it...
...A valuable contribution...
...EMINENTOES...
...reflects a remarkable depth of expertise...
...Even while Botnick was bowing out, John McLaughlin, HHC's former $105,000-a-year president, was going on trial for allegedly extracting $150,000 in bribes from Nu-Med, a California management firm, in exchange for a contract to direct Harlem Hospital...
...They have in-creased their numerical advantage more than expected and, more alarming, have reduced and, in some cases, reversed the qualitative advantage we held...
...Significantly, the Soviets spend only about 10 percent of their military budget on personnel costs...
...The CIA has reportedly concluded that Soviet ICBM production over the next five years will "increase substantially," compared with the last five years...
...Strobe Talbott Washington Bureau Chief Time Magazine "An important and illuminating work...
...Other nations look to the United States to counterbalance the growth of Soviet military power...
...WHAT REAGAN BUILDUP...
...strategic forces later this year "without dismantling additional U.S...
...Contrary to common belief, during the Reagan years there's been an overall decline in the growth of U.S...
...The MX ICBM, originally designed to be mobile and therefore more survivable than current U.S...
...strategic force vulnerabilities—particularly ICBM vulnerability...
...Elizabeth Holtzman has stated that at least one-third of all THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR SEPTEMBER 1986 33...
...The rest goes for weapons, equipment, and facilities...
...security is the less publicized fact that more efficient production rates have reduced the unit costs of weapons systems...
...Essential reading for defense experts, the policy-making community, and every one of our elected representatives...
...Such a deployment, however, would violate the ABM treaty, something the Administration has not yet decided to do (even though it protests that the Soviets have already done so...
...forces of five years ago...
...Lazar's group bought the building for $1.3 million in 1980 and sold it in 1985 for $14 million...
...Nevertheless, the damage has been done and the myth of a massive Reagan defense buildup has proved difficult to dislodge...
...100 SLBMs, compared with our 75...
...budgetary constraints threaten not only to halt progress in improving our military capability but also to over-turn some of the gains made in the last few years...
...From 1980 to 1984, the Soviets deployed about 80 new weapons systems—twice the number deployed by the United States...
...How ironic that an administrationwhich entered office proclaiming that a remedy to the ICBM vulnerability problem was its most urgent strategic priority has now ruled out the only near-term options for accomplishing that task—more survivable basing and a vigorous strategic defense program...
...the Soviet threat can not...
...The most striking deficiency of the Administration's defense program has been its inability to restore the strategic nuclear balance...
...Force readiness has improved, the quality of enlistees is up, and the replacement of older equipment with 32 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR SEPTEMBER 1986 newer, more sophisticated systems is continuing...
...r ,rhn, ..~i~ K..Nnl VhM- Vun 480 pages Cloth $22, Paper $14 35 Essays by Statesmen, Scholars, and Strategic Analysts Edward N. Luttwak Author, The Pentagon and the Art of War Donald Rumsfeld Former Secretary of Defense THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR SEPTEMBER 1986 31 problem is that most of these improvements are years—and in critical cases, many years—from fruition...
...20005 or call 202-682-1200...
...Thereafter, with one exception, the rate of real growth in defense budget authority declined—from 11.8 percent in 1982 to 7.6 percent in 1983 and to 4.4 percent in 1984...
...Although the technology for hardening silos to protect them against nuclear blast effects appears promising, there are no plans to harden any of the silos that will house the fifty MX missiles whose deployment has recently begun...
...and 50 bombers, compared with only two for the United States...
...In intercontinental bombers a once-heralded U.S...
...THE PUBLIC POLICY...
...And while tales of Pentagon procurement "horror stories" have fostered a belief that much of the money spent on defense is wasted, of greater importance to U.S...
...deterrent strength over the past five years have come in the area of conventional forces...
...To date, the United States has deployed only seven Trident submarines...
...Capasso's wife, Nancy, named Myerson as the "other woman" in her divorce suit...
...And in May the President ordered two more Poseidons dismantled (although he declared his intention to add to U.S...
...The greatest gains in U.S...
...European-based systems...
...By offering to give up the Midgetman, the Administration has clearly indicated it would rather not spend limited resources on this pro-gram...
Vol. 19 • September 1986 • No. 9
