The Nations Pulse/Crossover Caution
Schiffren, Lisa
When the national Republican party went hunting for disaffected traditional Democrats to broaden its appeal last year, William Lucas, executive of Wayne County, Michigan, was undeniably the...
...It may be that the electorate is apprehensive about this new hybrid, a black Republican—blacks because he Lisa Schiffren is an editorial writer for the Detroit News...
...Examples abound...
...The reason he is behind 30 points in the polls (as we go to press) isn't white racism—most of his support is coming from white, middle-class Republicans, and voters repeatedly have denied that race is a factor...
...Blanchard has repeatedly vetoed the legislature's attempts to stop the Medicaid funding of abortions, as the RepubUcan before him did...
...Republican or Democratic, to exact special considerations and transfers of revenues from out-of-state to the city...
...Rather, his green-eyeshade tendencies take hold and he worries aloud about how to "pay for" such a cut...
...But Lucas has not dared suggest any overhauling of...
...And that is why it is unfortunate that Bill Lucas has not grabbed the initiative and offered those voters the crystal clear choice of a "new conservative" vision for the future...
...Bill Lucas is extremely dignified and courteous...
...Conyers recently told a group that Lucas is like "some Jews who led their brothers and sisters into the ovens of the Holocaust...
...That Lucas is a moderate black already makes him a threat, because a growing number of black voters are becoming disenchanted with politics as usual...
...Now it may be that no one can beat a popular incumbent with a 73 percent approval rating in an economic upswing...
...This is a pity, because the black middle class is even more concerned with the havoc wreaked by welfare in the cities than the white middle class is...
...Lucas claims that the upswing, such as it is, was caused by Reagan's economic policies and happened despite Blanchard's 38 percent tax increase—a statement the voters appear to believe...
...More important is that, despite his apparently sincere admiration for Ronald Reagan, as well as some new rhetorical accessories acquired from the Republicans, he is not really comfortable with most "conservative" positions...
...But Lucas has been reluctant to sound this theme, though the issue has broad appeal...
...The facet of Reaganism that Lucas is most comfortable with is the personal...
...That he is black was tremendously significant to a party which had just won an overwhelming national mandate from every sector except black voters, who went 91 percent for Walter Mondale...
...And he is a regular (Catholic) churchgoer...
...But all politics is local, as the adage goes, and what the Michigan Republican party had to offer was a wide open shot at the governor's office...
...Naturally they are extremely anxious about anyone they can't control...
...The News poll showed that among blacks, 66 percent support Blanchard, 21 percent support Lucas...
...His version is completed by a tremendously wholesome family—he has five kids, most of them doctors...
...Primary exit polls revealed an eight percent black Democratic cross-over vote...
...Blanchard, as his main campaign theme, is claiming credit for Michigan's "comeback" from the recession of 1981-82, which cut deeper in the rustbelt than most places...
...He has concentrated on telling the pubUc his own fairly inspirational rags-to-riches story, emphasizing that this American Dream he embodies is accessible to all who strive for it...
...Since he bagged the top spot, the barrage of outrageous slurs and defamation has been unrelenting, with the Hon...
...At best, he promises to scrutinize the Department of Social Services staffing and accounts, and to come up with a workfare program better than the pilot Blanchard already has in place...
...It would still be an uphill battle, and with the threat he poses to Michigan's dominant labor and black political establishments, things would be tough at the most propitious of times...
...That will involve a direct challenge to Detroit's black Democratic establishment, which, though never friendly to him even when he was a Democrat, is now punishing him for breaking ranks...
...Conyers and Detroit Mayor Coleman Young have long treated their black constituency as something they own...
...When the national Republican party went hunting for disaffected traditional Democrats to broaden its appeal last year, William Lucas, executive of Wayne County, Michigan, was undeniably the biggest game they snagged...
...He hasn't etched a clear, hard impression of what he stands for in the electorate's mind...
...Unfortunately, Lucas's campaign slogan, "I will be judged on the strength of my character, not by the color of my skin" (paraphrased by one disappointed supporter as "Vote for me because I'm a nice Negro") misses the point entirely...
...With four weeks to go, amidst increasingly vocal skepticism from conservative critics, the newly reinforced Lucas campaign staff released a plan to cap property taxes constitutionally, which would effectively cut them...
...Still, despite Lucas's caution, his candidacy is the first step in dismantling the old liberal coalition, which has wreaked such havoc in the state...
...LAicas promises to go along with the legislature...
...At one press conference Conyers noted that "the President of the U.S...
...In person...
...John Conyers, Democrat from Michigan's First District and a leader of the Congressional Black Caucus, holding the megaphone...
...Admirable as his character truly is, it isn't—and shouldn't be—much more of a voting issue than his race...
...He has also indicated support for school vouchers—which the Michigan Education Associationbacked Blanchard professed never to have heard of...
...the benefits programs...
...It is well to remember that when Lucas explained his party switch, as so many have, by saying that his political ideas had remained essentially the same over time while the Democratic party had moved far to the left, he was telling the truth...
...Can Lucas turn things around and win...
...And yet, facing a pillar of the budding neoliberal network, he has deliberately steered away from defining a clear conservative position...
...Biologically [Lucas] is black," Conyers said, "but he is not black in the spirit of Martin Luther King or the civil rights movement...
...Detroit's Black MusUms, not part of the network, endorsed Lucas, citing his strong family values, and saying that he "will help create a better atmosphere for the free enterprise system to work in Michigan...
...Fourteen percent of black voters consider themselves Republicans currently, up from about 11 percent last year...
...But the hard truth is that Lucas cannot win without a large chunk of support from black, Wayne County Democrats—40 percent is considered the minimum necessary...
...Despite a troubled primary, in which he nearly squandered an early lead as well as the patience of his backers, Lucas is now the GOP standard bearer against Governor James Blanchard...
...And Young especially has used Detroit's votes as a bargaining chip with all previous governors...
...In order to capture the electorate Lucas would have to show that there is some significant difference between the candidates...
...Over the course of the fall, Conyers's rantings have engendered a growing backlash among some less political black leaders...
...The issues that most set Lucas apart from the "pragmatist" Democrats in the Blanchard administration are the social ones—abortion, school prayer, willingness to infringe upon the "civil liberties" of children who bring handguns to school...
...But it also may be more personal: Bill Lucas has not yet demonstrated the will to win, the proverbial "fire in the belly...
...But as of September 11, Blanchard, affectionately known as the "Boy Guv" because of his squeaky voice and wimpy mannerisms, held a 55-27 read, with the tmdecided 18 percent leaning toward him, according to a Detroit News poll...
...Yet there is no reason to believe that this will happen...
...is a Republican, whites because he is black...
...His political future as a Democrat in the state was definitely blocked, which may have mitigated the riskiness in switching parties...
...He is softspoken, has a warm smile, and exudes decency, sincerity, competence, and a great sense of personal discipline—all of which, by most accounts, is the real thing...
...Despite his ability to bring in votes, it had rejected him...
...As for drastic state income tax cuts, Lucas has promised a cut only .2 percent larger than Blanchard's...
...The anti-Lucas coalition has also enlisted the support of Detroit's highly politicized black churches, which have plenty of clout with city residents, and whose ministers head local branches of organizations like the NAACP...
...This is partly a strategy designed to avoid commitment, especially on issues where prospective supporters, urban blacks and rural white conservatives, would disagree...
...The most basic reason for the attacks on Lucas by the black establishment is self-interest...
...Blanchard has proposed a sham reform...
...This dignity has caused former competitors to accuse him of having a Teflon quality of his own, as his evasion of details has not hurt in previous campaigns...
...And, he has failed to offer an alternative philosophical position on the issues which might galvanize the public...
...The hope was that black voters would be proud enough of electing the nation's first black governor to cross over in unprecedented numbers...
...Tkxes and crime in Detroit are at historic highs and the quality of education and services at historic lows...
...In the two years before his switch Detroit's black Democratic estabUshment had denied Lucas prominence at events, podiums at party conventions, and a delegate slot at the 1984 national convention in San Francisco...
...Indeed, Lucas could easily be one of Reagan's American heroes...
...It remains to be seen how much emphasis this plank will get...
...is coming to Detroit to put his arms around this Uncle Tom," and demanded that Lucas uninvite Reagan (whom Conyers has charged with "genocide" against blacks...
...In a state which boasts some of the highest average property taxes in the nation, the issue of cutting them radically is a natural...
...Black Detroit residents want better services and lower taxes just as their white counterparts do, and someone who offers that while supporting affirmative action and state divestment from South Africa (as Lucas does) could start a mad rush to the Democratic party exit ramp...
...Not to do this, Conyers said, would prove that Bill Lucas is "not black...
...Michigan also has the highest welfare benefits in the region—and a correspondingly high population of inter-generational welfare cases who have turned Detroit into a breeding ground for every social pathology known to man...
...If Lucas decides he really wants to win, he must begin seeking those critical black voters aggressively...
Vol. 19 • November 1986 • No. 11
