Central America/More of the Same

...One cannot, finally, be sure whether the immense pressure put on the Sandinista regime will make it more moderate or only solidify its hold and push it further into the Soviet camp...

...In El Salvador the Administration also feels it is on the right track...

...The Reagan Administration has handled the whole matter adroitly, sounding tough here, caving in there, stretching out the loan period, renegotiating the interest charges, so as to maintain all the fictitious parts in place...

...has also compelled the paranoid Sandinistas, convinced an American invasion could come at any minute, to the bargaining table...

...We have begun to resolve some of the region's pressing and immediate problems...

...Ultimately, U.S...

...First, there is Grenada...

...As in the past, the President may personally have to involve himself in the process to keep the Congress more or less in line, the legislation moving along, and the foreign affairs bureaucracies on course...

...It serves as a conduit for the building of democratic trade unionism in Latin America and for assisting private commerce and entrepreneurship...

...All indications suggest that the Soviets do not want a showdown now with the United States, and certainly not in the Caribbean region where the U.S...

...The Administration has said very clearly that it would not stand by and allow MIGs in Nicaragua, and it has unambiguously conveyed that message to Nicaragua, Cuba, and the Soviet Union...

...Every new administration seems to go through this process, and Mr...

...The guerrilla movement may well atrophy, which is about all one can expect in these kinds of wars...

...Reagan's strong but tempered policy), and to satisfy "world public opinion...

...policy in the Caribbean and Central America must be judged by its impact on Cuba and the Soviet Union...

...Even if as much as 30 percent of the aid finds its way into private pockets- something that can never be said publicly for fear of the public, the Congress, and the General Accounting Office-the remaining 70 percent may still do some modest good...

...Now we need to go forward and carry through with the Caribbean Basin Initiative and the recommendations of the Kissinger Commission...

...In that sense Mr...

...The list is rather impressive...

...In part, this "two track" policy stems from the fact the Administration has been unable to decide whether in the final analysis it wants to overthrow or live with the Sandinista government...

...Rather than a largescale missionary campaign to bring the benefits of democracy to, in the words of some of the original proposals, "our little brown arid black brothers" in Latin America, the democracy program is appropriately modest...

...That is the public sentiment Mr...

...At the same time he emphasized democratic developmentalism and the protection of human rights as effective means to help accomplish these ends...

...Perhaps the most important is that El Salvador did not, to use the vernacular, go down the tubes...

...If we are to see light at the end of the tunnel in Central America, we will have to move in long-range terms to put our relationship with the region on a more mature basis...

...They are having trouble getting recruits, were too weak to launch their expected fall offensive, and are now confined to remote but specific areas of the country...

...In addition, there is strong nationalistic sentiment within these countries to consider the debt as part of the North-South "dialogue"-part of the "massive transfer of wealth from North to South" that has long been part of the Third World agenda...

...Some reforms will be enacted and a few may actually be implemented...

...This battle is reflected in part in the debate over whether the United States can or cannot live with the Sandinistas...

...This was a Marxist-Leninist revolution and not just a merry bunch of Robin Hoods...

...ground forces is - unlikely...

...commitment is not so strong...

...Nevertheless these aspirations can easily be applied in foreign affairs...

...Grenada was patterned after the Dominican intervention: Go in quickly, accomplish your objectives, and get out...

...For this reason, the alarmist predictions we've been hearing about Administration second-term plans for the region do not seem plausible...

...Any such move would also rob them of the interest that is still trickling in, as distinct from the principal that will never be repaid...

...There will be some shuffling of personnel in the foreign affairs bureaucracies but not the wholesale changeover at the Cabinet and White House levels that once was expected...

...Only in that way could the President secure the higher road and still carry out the plans he and his advisers had formulated...

...Short of the MIGs, however, an equally tough question remains about what to do in response to Nicaragua's buildup of ever more sophisticated weaponry...

...Nor can the banks entirely write off these loans without causing serious international repercussions, to say nothing of what would happen within their own ranks were they to declare these staggering amounts to be "bad loans...

...Many scholars were likewise skeptical because they believed the democracy agenda, if pursued too enthusiastically in Latin America, would result in a Woodrow Wilson- or Jimmy Carter-style campaign to export North American institutions to a region where they could not work and might even undermine the feeble institutions already in existence there...

...leadership in the Caribbean/Central American region, he reasserted the primacy of US...

...There should be no false optimism on this fundamental matter...

...Reagan as change...

...pressure has helped retain the vestiges of pluralism that still exist in Nicaragua...

...It depends on the measure...

...Some of the money may even "trickle down...

...That is, during the first months and even years of a new administration, the policy debate and the headlines tend to be dominated by the President's political advisers, those who helped articulate his positions during the campaign, accompanied him into office, and who have new and often controversial ideas...

...But Defense Department planners feel Nicaragua would be more like Vietnam or perhaps Lebanon: a messy, bloody imbroglio in pursuit of ambiguous aims, which would only invite constant political sniping and criticism, and ultimately leave the military blamed for whatever setbacks might ensue...

...We should not be deceived that such initiatives can do much to create democracy where it does not now exist, that we can reform the Central American militaries to make them honest and professional by our lights, or that we can create in the region thriving, just, middle-class societies like our own...

...Certainly the Pentagon's case is clear...

...Benign neglect of Central America will no longer do: It may have been appropriate in an earlier and sleepier age, but it was precisely the benign neglect of earlier American administrations that allowed smaller problems in the region to fester until they became major trouble spots...

...El Salvador may be out of the headlines for the moment, but this is no time to turn our attention to other issues...

...But military action against Cuba would have involved such a wrenching, bloody battle as to tear America apart again, it would have diverted attention from other important agendas such as the President's economic recovery plans and the defense buildup, and it quite conceivably might have destroyed the Reagan presidency and his prospects for a second term...

...The result is a kind of constant interplay between the more ideological and political of the President's advisers and the foreign policy professionals at State and elsewhere, a situation which no doubt will continue in the second term...

...invasion demonstrated, to the Cubans, the Nicaraguans, the Surinamese (who the same day Grenada was invaded expelled virtually the entire Cuban delegation), the Salvadoran guerrillas, and above all to the Soviets, that the U.S...

...The whole strategy hangs by a thread, but as an exercise in crisis management with multiple dimensions it is a fascinating show to watch...

...However, one shudders to think what would happen if President Duarte were to be assassinated or thrown out of office...

...strategic interests in the region, and he renewed the emphasis on having safe, stable, friendly nations to the south...

...Also, the Russians have told the Nicaraguans they should not expect Soviet help if they are attacked by the United States...

...Reagan has now twice received...

...By maintaining pressure the U.S...

...It makes a sharp distinction between the two major interventions of the 1960s: the Dominican Republic ("successful") and Vietnam ("unsuccessful...

...was again a serious power that would defend its interests vigorously...

...With regard to Nicaragua, the Administration is likely to continue (and perhaps increase) its pressure on the regime while also keeping open the negotiating process, through Contadora and in other forums...

...Hence if we ask about the prospects for U.S...

...The strategy will be continued in the second term...

...After many false starts, the Administration tends to feel that it now has a solid handle on a viable U.S...

...But the aid funds are important in getting the devastated economies of the Caribbean and Central America moving again...

...The Cubans have begun to conclude that Central America may not be as ripe for revolution as it appeared in 1979 when the Sandinistas came to power...

...In this day and age, avoiding mistakes in foreign policy can be viewed as every bit as much of a major accomplishment as any bold new initiatives...

...By moving decisively, the United States sent a message to friend and foe alike that it is not a paper tiger...

...The election turned not so much on foreign policy issues as on domestic considerations: the economic recovery, declining inflation and unemployment, renewed self-confidence, national pride, strong presidential leadership, America on-the-move again...

...Reagan will not feel "unleashed" during his second term to do irreparable harm to the world, nor will he return to being the "true" (presumably more conservative) Reagan...

...The weakness of the guerrillas and the strength and legitimacy of the government were in fact what enabled President Duarte to take his dramatic initiative to begin discussions with the guerrillas last October...

...Reagan will carry with him into the second term and which his policies will likely reflect...

...The present danger is complacency...

...Rather our response has been gradual, measured, controlled...

...The full debt will never be paid-though it is important to keep alive the illusion that it will be...

...It is reflected finally in rivalries over personnel appointments to high foreign policy-making positions...

...The debt issue is one of the most elaborate "smoke and mirrors" operations that the fertile minds of economists and politicians have ever concocted...

...During the first three years of the Administration the political/strategic situation in that unfortunate country was far grimmer than any spokesman ever officially admitted...

...The fusing of the declared and the real did not happen in the first term and is also unlikely in the second...

...policy toward Central America, without abandoning what is useful in the newer approaches...

...During the 1980 campaign, in the transition team papers, and in the early weeks of the new Administration, there was a lot of talk about abandoning human rights concerns, abandoning the agrarian reform initiatives in El Salvador, and focusing exclusively on the military/strategic aspects of the Central American crisis...

...Should there really be MIGs in those crates or should they materialize at a later date, strong action from the U.S...

...In part, this more sophisticated policy grew out of the protracted-and continuing-tension between the White House on the one hand and the foreign affairs bureaucracies, principally the State Department, on the other...

...Third, the debt issue...

...The big debtor nations-Argentina, Brazil, Mexico-are incapable of fully paying back their debts without wreaking havoc on themselves domestically...

...Eventually, these ideas are tempered in the bureaucratic arena by long-time professionals, who generally have greater functional or area-specific expertise than the President's political advisers, and who eventually regain lost ground in the making of policy...

...We may well see a certain turning away from the Caribbean by the Soviet Union and, likely, an attempt to exploit other regions where it has the advantage and the U.S...

...there were Cubans everywhere, and the Grenadans did almost nothing without consulting their Cuban mentors...

...Not all of this aid will find its way to Miami or Geneva...

...These are merely devices a clever administration uses to build support for its policies, to pry assistance funds from a reluctant Congress, to defuse the criticism of other Western allies (who now, on balance, are supportive of Mr...

...Nevertheless the fig leaf must be kept in place...

...By this he meant, presumably, taking strong actions against the source of our difficulties in Central America (to say nothing of the Horn of Africa, the Yemens, Southern Africa, etc): the Cubans...

...This has kept open the possibility for future rrioderation of the regime...

...Nor are the main lines of policy likely to change much: Mr...

...The U.S...

...We sent trainers to El Salvador, beefed up the Caribbean fleet, built up a large military presence in Honduras, sent a strong message in the Grenada intervention, and put immense pressure-military, political, economic diplomatic-on the Sandinista regime in Nicaragua...

...Cuba is a thorn in the American side, a kind of panic button (rather like Berlin in decades past) that the Soviets can push from time to time and get a predictable American response...

...In Central America that means standing firm, , defending our interests, refusing to be pushed around, and-in a context that Americans know is difficult and complex-maintaining a posture of strength, continuity, and living up to our ideals...

...It requires a clever foreign policy to maintain the required fictions while recognizing realistically what the U.S...

...Our allies (including those in Latin America), despite some public fulmina-tions to the contrary, were also pleased to see the U.S...

...has overwhelming local advantage and the Soviets only limited interests and political leverage...

...can be expected, probably in the form of an ultimatum...

...It needed to combine its military/ strategic interests with a broader program of socioeconomic assistance, support of human rights, and aid to democracy...

...policy has for too long been crisis-oriented and almost exclusively reactive...

...The debtor nations cannot formally default without irrevocably losing whatever standing they still have in international financial circles...

...In governing circles in the region, there is always a sigh of relief when the "Colossus of the North" takes decisive action to defend its interests and those of Latin America...

...It provides for a greatly expanded and long-needed student exchange program...

...The early statements of some of the "true believers" in the program lent credence to these fears...

...A more restrained policy prevailed and a Cuba invasion or quarantine, never seriously considered (except perhaps as a bluff to frighten the Cubans), was put on the back burner where it remains...

...and in this part of the world the Soviets pay attention to Cuba's expertise...

...a guerrilla triumph appeared imminent...

...When President Reagan first broached this subject in his speech before the British Parliament, it was greeted with skepticism on various fronts...

...There are traps in pursuing the democracy agenda too enthusiastically, and in El Salvador this would mean we would still have to support the succeeding regime should democracy be overthrown...

...And in this he stood in marked contrast to Jimmy Carter who, at least during the first two years of his presidency, severely neglected one side of the equation...

...Today the situation has turned around: The armed forces are stronger than before, we now have a legitimately elected government in power in San Salvador, and it is the guerrillas who are on the defensive...

...Hence an invasion there seems unlikely...

...We need to carry through on our aid commitments, continue to finesse the debt situation, maintain our strategic and political presence, implement those student exchanges, support the Duarte government, and walk a fine line in Nicaragua between applying pressure and keeping negotiations going...

...Invading Nicaragua would be a bloody mess, the Sandinistas would eventually fade across their borders, we would then have to bomb their sanctuaries in Honduras and Costa Rica, and at that stage we would really have a "second Vietnam" on our hands...

...In Nicaragua the Administration's policy has produced more ambiguous results...

...The Salvadoran government and the armed forces were several times on the verge of collapse or disintegration...

...Reagan sought to combine both strength and noble purpose as the twin pillars of his policy, thereby reconstituting the bases of successful American foreign policy in the past...

...the Soviets were trying to use Grenada as a stepping stone to revolution in Suriname and Belize...

...It recognizes limits on what the United States can do in this arena while also suggesting that a nudge and push in favor of democratic groups in Latin America can in appropriate circumstances make a decisive difference...

...Reagan has been masterful at keeping separate his declared views, which are aimed at a domestic political audience, from his real policies, which have been much more . prudent and traditional...

...The documents captured in Grenada, after all, prove that its revolution was a much more serious affair than many had thought...

...policy for the region, and that its policy has begun to pay off...

...We have done that with the larger countries of South America, but in Central America U.S...

...This is the stuff of which revolutions are made...

...In Carl Gershman the Democracy endowment has a calm, level-headed, politically savvy president...

...It is a serious program that merits the support of serious people...

...The debate has sometimes been unseemly, the stuff of which Washington Post and New York Times headlines are gleefully made...

...That is, he restored U.S...

...Otherwise, a prudent and sensible Latin America policy that has taken years to fashion may again be sidetracked by indifference and lethargy.gain be sidetracked by indifference and lethargy...

...Second, we have not sent ground combat troops into Central America...

...But it has also been salutary, helping produce the more sophisticated and multifaceted policy we have now and enabling us to ensure that the expertise found in the professional bureaucracies is combined with the overwhelming popular mandate that Mr...

...invasion of Grenada and the buildup of our military forces in Central America and the Caribbean have demonstrated to the Soviets that it risks confrontation with the United States if its mischief-making goes too far...

...At the same time, the results of the congressional, gubernatorial, and state and local elections indicate that it was not an unqualified mandate and that the American public still prefers gradualism, incrementalism, and the historic system of checks and balances...

...The Democratic opposition was appalled that the President was stealing its agenda, and many Democrats could not believe in any case that this President was genuinely serious about democracy...

...Reagan's was no exception...

...The Caribbean Basin Initiative and the recommendations of the National Bipartisan (Kissinger) Commission on Central America constitute further major accomplishments of the Administration...

...In the current circumstances that is about all we can expect...

...This they obviously will not do...

...A learning process has been under way in the Reagan presidency which can be expected to bear fruit in the second term...

...at the same time it clearly does not want to get involved in a ground war on the Central American mainland using American troops...

...The presence of MIGs in Nicaragua would obviously change the President's thinking...

...Now that the country has stabilized, the introduction of U.S...

...First, we did not "go to the source" as former Secretary of State Alexander Haig once seemed to be urging...

...In its first four years the Reagan Administration distinguished itself on a number of occasions precisely because it did not act, because it steered clear of invitations to disaster...

...The American public wants no "second Cuba" in the Caribbean...

...Only gradually did the Administration come to recognize that to retain public support, ensure congressional votes, and gain the help of our allies it would have to follow a more comprehensive policy...

...It provides limited funds for research on where democracy works and how...

...Reagan eager to play into the hands of his foes and jeopardize his presidency...

...Thus look for continuity during the second term, not only because the Administration now has a firmer handle on policy, but because, once established, a policy consensus in Washington is awfully, difficult to change...

...Here again illusion and reality must be separated...

...On balance I believe U.S...

...Actually, there has been at least as much foreign policy continuity under Mr...

...Second, there is the democracy agenda...

...It was also a mandate for his program and for a continuation of that agenda during the second term...

...act decisively...

...The President returned to the historic bedrocks of U.S...

...Quite apart from the mistakes the United States did not make in the first term are certain positive accomplishments...

...That prospect does not excite the Pentagon, nor is Mr...

...It recognizes elections and human rights as crucial to democracy...

...can-and cannot-do in this part of the world...

...There is now abundarit evidence that the Soviets are having second thoughts about their circum-Caribbean adventurism...

...But-so far-we have not involved U.S...

...ground forces...

...As actually written into the legislation that created the National Endowment for Democracy, however, the democracy program seems on a sounder footing...

...The President has been told to steer a middle course between going forward with his program and the unrestrained new directions urged by some of his erstwhile and excessively enthusiastic supporters...

...Of such considerations was born the far more sophisticated, mature, nuanced, and multi-pronged strategy that we have now and that has been so successful in the region...

...W ith regard to specific countries, again major accomplishments can be cited...

...The U.S...

...policy in Central America during the second term, the answer is probably: more of the same...

...Failure to do this will be the greatest disservice to the people of the region-dashing their hopes after having raised them with such fanfare...

...It is reflected also in the debate over human rights policy, the precise parameters and thrusts of the President's democracy initiative, and over a variety of other policies...

...Many of the early congressional fears have abated...