Correspondence
CORRESPONDENCE America on War and Diplomacy I congratulate Stephen Rosen and Bob Tyrrell on a remarkable-and remarkably important-symposium in the November American Spectator. I fully agree...
...All share a preference for numbers over words which is good as far as it goes...
...But it cannot be liberal or conservative...
...The small point: the use of the words "liberal" and "conservative" in relation to foreign policy...
...The purpose of the symposium was to go beyond both and develop the ideas of Acheson, Jackson, and others to create operational foreign and defense policies for the 1980s...
...But I think that even an unbiased observer might admit that rational approaches are not bad in themselves...
...But if you use the results as aids to your thinking, which may be classical military thinking, and allow for their inaccuracy, they may well be useful to you (the planner...
...realistic or illusionist...
...In the meantime, the analysis profession has an obligation to strive for validity-often involving experimental validation of results-and improved techniques...
...We all have thought a great deal about this but have failed to come up with anything more profound than the conclusion that American intervention should be decided on a case by case basis, with due regard given to the military, ideological, diplomatic, and domestic political costs that will be borne...
...Intellectually, he is right...
...Younger ones may have a degree in the field itself which usually means they have been trained as mathematicians...
...We need better users as well as better practitioners...
...But, just as the Victorians went to the doctor anyway, the generals come to the systems analyst because there is no other way to look at things rationally...
...Foreign and defense policy can be prudent or reckless...
...Those denotations have nothing to do with the use of force or coercion in international affairs...
...What then is the use of modeling...
...that it has been avoided like the plague by people terrorized or traumatized by the word "Vietnam...
...Those who have been trained in the humanist fields- history, politics, or English literature for that matter-should resist much more the blandishments of those who would substitute formulas for prudence and mathematical models for reflection...
...Agreed, the choice of measures of effectiveness is often poor...
...Quite so...
...it has been said that when you went to a doctor then it was even money whether he would help or hurt you...
...That is why it must fail, because no human activity, particularly war, is quantifiable and mathematically predictable...
...Developing a general criterion for the use of American force is much harder...
...wise or foolish...
...tradition versus change, etc...
...If the representation is realistic, and //the input numbers are right, it follows logically that the output is right...
...Both groups represent positions that are flawed...
...His second paragraph asserts that "systems analysis is...
...Practically all the ones I know are engineers, physical scientists, or mathematicians by training...
...Intangible elements-courage, intelligence, sheer luck-control the outcome of battles...
...Cohen rightly says that no model encompasses all of reality, and he could have added that the two conditions I have stated are rarely fulfilled...
...Systems Reanalysis I should like to react to Eliot Cohen's attack on systems analysis in your November issue...
...aggressive or defensive...
...the models are not realistic and the input values are chosen to fit the convenience or bias of the user...
...Seldom should the results be taken as gospel...
...an attempt to represent events by equations...
...In regard to his final paragraph let me point out that the founders of systems analysis and the authors of its sacred texts were and are economists...
...Cohen is wrong in supposing that most systems analysts are social scientists...
...I consider systems analysis to be at about the same stage today that medicine was in 1850...
...It is not surprising that mathematicians, engineers, and nat^ ural scientists find systems analysis congenial...
...I cherish the hope that the state of the art will improve...
...I fully agree that a ruthless reexamination of our foreign-cum-defense policy has been our highest priority for years...
...Agreed, systems analysis cannot quantify important aspects of war, like morale and generalship...
...I should admit that I make my living as a systems analyst and am not impartial...
...My second point is more fundamental...
...I myself have a degree in chemistry...
...I wish more would have a preference for experimental facts over numbers...
...I observed, however, that systems analysis is not the technique of a few adepts but a mode of thought adopted by many noneconomists...
...and that we must undertake the task now, on a crash basis, or (quite literally) die...
...In practice, however, men like Jesse Helms and Barry Goldwater are tolerably distinguishable from men like George Ball and George McGovern...
...Aryeh H. Samuel Wheaton, Maryland first paragraph confirms one of my observations: "Systems analysts are willing-nay, eager-to condemn defective analysis, but not to re-examine the premises of the whole approach" (p...
...May I raise two points-one small but important, the other large-and also important, I think...
...The essence of systems analysis is the mathematical model, an' attempt to represent events by equations...
...By every meaningful index, HenryJackson is a "liberal," as Paul Douglas and Dean Acheson were...
...What I miss in the symposium is any consideration of what seems to me the central issue: Is there any criterion short of the rule of the Charter of the United Nations which could tell us when we and our Allies have to oppose the international use of force...
...Liberal" and "conservative" have significant denotations in political and social theory (freedom versus order...
...Eugene V. Rostow Yale University Law School Stephen Rosen replies: I have no substantive quarrel with Professor Rostow's rejection of the words ''liberal" and ''conservative" in relation to foreign policy...
...In fact, though still inadequate, quality control is a leading concern of all reputable practitioners...
...In my view, they have no place in the vocabulary of the subject...
Vol. 14 • February 1981 • No. 2
