European Document / Old Europe, New Relations
Aron, Raymond
"European Document / Old Europe, New Relations" The lines are drawn: Barring an unforeseeable accident, the presidential contest this November will take place between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. The...
...Nothing is easier for them to do, since they are making no commitments either to obtain the withdrawal from the territories occupied in 1967 or to guarantee the survival of the state of Israel...
...If they looked at the map, they would readily see that, by using the Baluchi tribes that are spread over Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran, the Soviets can destabilize three countries and reach the Sea of Oman...
...A national defeat would destroy trust in the President, who is already considered by many voters to be incompetent and not up to his responsibilities...
...What would Schmidt, Giscard d'Estaing, or Lord Carrington do in the White House...
...To be sure, Carter seems unable to control his team, and he himself appears to hesitate and to shift from one view and advisor to another...
...Let us take as an example the problem of the Middle East...
...Elections have been democratized: There are more primaries now, which augments the difficulty of being a candidate...
...do is talk, collecting marginal gains and leaving to the United States the trouble of finding a solution or of avoiding a catastrophe...
...Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon were not mediocre men...
...One would like to know what their secret plan is for guaranteeing the peaceful coexistence between Israel and the PLO, which does not mask its aim: the destruction of the Jewish state...
...Even if there still exists a rough equality at the level of strategic nuclear weapons, Soviet superiority in conventional armaments cannot be doubted...
...The Europeans can claim for themselves the virtue of lucidity because all they Raymond Aron is a columnist for the Frenc/7 magazine L'Express, from whose April 5th edition this essay is reprinted...
...The titleholder, to use a sporting term, will have a head start...
...They have a way of acting like spectators, keeping score and imputing to Carter's weakness the Soviets' use of force...
...The United States, humiliated rather than imperialistic, needs its allies' support more than their criticisms...
...Despite the rightward movement of American public opinion, Reagan needs some good fortune if he is to win...
...Carter--why deny it?--is judged even more severely abroad than at home...
...An increase in defense-related production would demand transfers of labor or machinery away from the civilian sector...
...There again, the French and the Germans talked, condemning the occupation of that country by the Soviet army...
...Except for the protection of American territory, the nuclear threat seems to have less and less deterrent value...
...In the coming years, the American president, whoever he may be, will try to save what is most important...
...by Raymond Aron The Europeans are not lacking in arguments to explain and justify their loss of trust in the United States...
...Thirty years ago, when the Korean war broke out, the United States was able to triple its defense budget in two years, without imposing sacrifices upon its population...
...Without denying his weaknesses or his mistakes, however, I would like to recall some extenuating circumstances, a few facts about the world and the American situation which ought to suggest some degree of modesty to the ministers--and even the journalists--who are so certain of their superiority...
...Are they concerned about the President, or about the United States as a whole...
...Nevertheless, he inherited an America which had been decreasing its defense programs for ten years, while the Soviet Union was arming itself beyond its needs...
...But I ask myself if they are following their thought all the way through...
...Very well...
...But they both expressed their firm intention of preserving detente...
...but he rose to his tasks...
...Since 1965, since the sending of an expeditionary corps to Vietnam, the United States has lost on every front: military power, prestige, moral unity...
...The Persian Gulf concerns them as much as it does the United States...
...The European governments, with the French President in the lead, are announcing that the Palestinian people have the right to self-determination, and they are forging quasi-official links with the PLO...
...OLD EUROPE, NEW RELATIONS The lines are drawn: Barring an unforeseeable accident, the presidential contest this November will take place between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan...
...Perhaps, as Henry Kissinger used to say, the Europeans should behave like regional powers...
...Today, for the first time, American public opinion is aware of the sorry state of the Republic, and is prepared to respond to the call of a president who inspires confidence...
...Between now and November, Carter may be the victim either of some spectacular mistakes of his owr~ or of events...
...Before entering the White House, Harry Truman, too, was perceived as mediocre...
...The Democratic Party is more popular nation-wide...
...Reagan belongs to the hard conservative faction of the GOP...
...The enhanced role of the primaries provides opportunities to candidates like Carter and Reagan, candidates who know nothing about Washington, Congress, or even the outside world...
...in recent years, candidates representing extremes-McGovern on the left of the Democrats, Goldwater on the right of the Republicans--have been overwhelmed by moderates or centrists...
...Why, Europeans ask themselves, does this great country, so rich in scientists and writers, find itself having to choose in the end between two apparently mediocre men, to whom no president of a large corporation would entrust the running of a division...
...THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 1980 27...
...To increase this same budget by 5 percent, the President must trim domestic spending in a couple of ways...
...To be sure, the United States remains potentially the leading economic and military power of the world--potentially, not effectively...
...Today, the United States has neither an industrial nor a financial surplus...
...Even though they had proclaimed detente to be indivisible, they were hoping to preserve both a relaxed climate in Europe and their commercial relations...
...Let us take another example: the Soviet Union's military intervention in Afghanistan...
Vol. 13 • June 1980 • No. 6
