The Imperial Candidacy

...I-|e went on to address the matter of Connally's aggressive campaigning style: Connally's veiled references to Reagan's age (Reagan is all of six years older than Connally) and Connally's not.at-all veiled references to Chappaquiddir ("I never drowned anybody") are nasty...

...Yet the undeniable dynamism of the man is such that large segments of the press, the business community, and political professionals think he may be the only man capable of overcoming Ronald Reagan's lead and then beating the Democratic nominee in the general election...

...To the small degree that I have ever been exposed to the stuff, l've always found it something between an unpleasant distraction from the really worthwhile things in life and a mild soporific...

...This isn't fair, but it's routine politics...

...This is the biggest gamble of the biggest gambler in the race, and it seems to have done John Connally more harm than good...

...like the man who had his head cut off to THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR MARCH 1980 15 America--especially American leadership--has gone morally and materially flabby, Connaily tells his audiences...

...Connally cut his political teeth as a young Johnson staffer in the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 1930s and 1940s...

...Connally is running a high-risk campaign and would prove to be a high-risk, high-yield President if nominated and elected...

...Carter fears power and knows not how to use it...

...As governor, Connally proved his own mettle, winning re-election twice and serving three two-year terms from 1963-1967...

...And Henry Kissinger, whatever his foibles, is a formidable connoisseur of power and ego...

...In fact, it was an open secret back in 1972 that, if it hadn't been for grassroots GOP distrust of Connally and residual party loyalty to Spiro Agnew, Connally would have been Nixon's running mate against George McGovern...

...But then writers are strange anyway...

...Watching him swing into action always is...

...and in the prosecution fever that followed, Connally was indicted and tried on charges of pocketing graft...

...Henry Kissinger once declared that power is the greatest aphrodisiac...

...His amiable manner never obscured the reality that he would not hesitate to overcome any obstacle to his purposes...

...16 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR MARCH 1980...

...9 Speed up the construction of nuclear power plants...

...John's got balls," Nixon declared, once more putting the matter in a nutshell...

...We need an unapoiogeticaliy strong man at the helm again, one who will, among other things: _9 Strengthen the fleet, deploy the MX Missile and the Neutron Bomb, and go ahead with the B! Bomber...

...He certainly understands the trappings--if not the underlying dynamics--of power...

...That's quite a tribute until one recalls that "Nelson" understood power so well that he never succeeded in winning the one emblem of power he yearned for more than anything else in the world--the Presidency --and that Nixon, although a skilled power broker in international affairs, misread the domestic power balance so badly that he was, in his own words, hounded out of office because of "a third-rate burglary...

...Besides his personal magnetism, the two related qualities most often mentioned by Connally's supporters are his pragmatism and his leadership...

...I n the new Age of Normalcy, then, another round of Soviet adventurism will undoubtedly ensue, although probably not another Afghanistan...

...Unfortunately for Connally, both of these qualities cut two ways, especially among the people most likely to vote in Republican primaries...

...Copyright _9 1980 by Aram Bakshian, Jr...

...Through SALT, the 1973 d&ente accord on superpower cooperation, and the 1979 Vienna summit, the U.S...

...He seems to agree with the late General George Patton's approach to battle: "Take calculated risks...

...From a writer's point of view, a Connally Presidency would be fascinating and fun...

...The "New Majority" died a-homing in the rubble of Watergate...

...Two hundred years later, John Connally, who defected from the Democrats in 1973, has applied for the job of 1980 Republican Commander-in-Chief...

...Soon he was one of the most popular after-dinner speakers on the Republican and corporate lecture circuit...

...Even the best leader is powerless without followers and, while Connally has managed to assemble a solid campaign command team at the top, and has raked in money from the fat cats, he has yet to prove his ability to attract Republican voters en masse...

...If one does take Kissinger at his word--which not everyone is willing to do these days--John Connally must be the randiest candidate in the race...

...However...

...If he could get through that, he would probably beat either Carter or Kennedy...

...Only three men in America understand the use of power," Nixon once told economist Arthur Burns...

...I t all might have been too much for a weaker man, but Connally, to his credit, fought back...

...And I guess Nelson [Rockefeller} does...

...Had that happened, Connally might be President today...

...The bigger they are, the bigger you will be...

...They will recognize that the Soviets no longer practice--if they ever did--restraint for the sake of world stability...

...Pragmatism"--where strongly ideological Republicans are concerned--smacks seriously of heresy and opportunism...

...Exonerated of bribery charges by a full acquittal, he immediately plunged back into politics...

...9 Soften environmental regulations to permit greater use of coal ("The worst environment...

...This little bag of conservative goodies, while more emphatically pitched by Connally, isn't really that different from Reagan's or Bush's preliminary platforms, and perhaps for that reason, it has been widely ignored by press and public...

...I believe that it has damaged his present prospects as a nominee and potential candidate-regardless of whether one happens to view him as a prophet without honor or an opportunist betrayed by poor sense of timing But we can't be sure until well into the primaries, which makes his Mideast position one of Connally's biggest wild cards...

...In 1780, Arnold, one of the most talented of George Washington's generals, switched sides in the Revolutionary War, abandoning his West Point command and joining the British...

...Since 1966 Connally has not been judged by American voters in any contest for public office...

...The discredited milk-fund charges will be repeated, exaggerated, and distorted with increasing frequency if Connally moves up in the race...

...9 Cut taxes by as much as $100 billion in the next three to five years...

...My own reading is that Connally is weaker than he looks and that the same bluster that initialty won him headlines and big campaign contributions is starting to cost him votes and esteem--especially among cautious, slightly priggish Republican voters who, on top of everything else, find his speech and mannerisms unpleasantly reminiscent of Lyndon Johnson...

...Some of those sparks of acrimony are bound to kindle voter discomfort --especially among Republican voters already dubious about Connally's party credentials...

...It was also Johnson's patronage as Vice President that won Connally his appointment as Secretary of the Navy in 1961--the post that served as his springboard to the governorship of Texas...

...bestowed the Soviet Union with superpower prestige with the understanding that it would behave responsibly like one...

...Carter may not long remember that Afghanistan changed his ideas about the Soviets' love of peace (ideas of the type which prompted Cyrus Vance to say that Carter and Brezhnev shared "similar dreams and aspirations" for the world), but the American people w//1 remember...

...14 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR MARCH 1980 It's only right that they should, for LBJ was John Connally's political godfather...

...That is why so many voters fear him--and so many others see him as the only man strong enough to deal with the current national mess...

...In this case, such "elements," parlaying Afghanistan and the Iranian crisis together, are at the front of a new pro-Americanism which will burn as the most important political force in the next several years...

...Tough, articulate, and photogenic, Connally was one of the most popular, successful governors in the state's history...

...But will that be enough to win him the Republican nomination in 19807 No one can accuse him of mincing words in the pursuit...

...But it just isn't in the cards for 1980--at least as I read them...

...Where Connally is different, and where he has received more publicity than even he may have wanted, is on the ticklish Middle East question...

...Connally rightly points out that, by being tried and acquitted, he is the only provenly innocent candidate in the race...

...And Lyndon Johnson isn't the only albatross hanging around John Connally's ruddy neck...

...But the fact remains that, with the sole exception of George Bush--another Texan and probably Connally's nearest rival--his is the weakest elective record among Republican candidates for the nomination...

...and second, there is a cost to an invasion like this, not in the hand-slapping at the UN or in the tough-talking at the White House, but in the way it galvanizes what Pravda calls the "reactionary elements" within the U.S...

...John Connally was never afraid of his opponents: he relished combat in defense of his convictions...

...His defection caused quite a stir at the time, but the British, ieary of trusting a turncoat, were afraid to give his talents full play, and so Arnold never again commanded a major army...

...You will be measured in this town," he said to me once, "by the enemies you destroy...

...Maybe John Connally is different...

...And he has never run in any general election as a Republican...

...Several years after Nixon's involuntary retirement, when I spent a few weeks in San Clemente editing portions of his memoirs, the former President was still keen on Connally, considering him head and shoulders above other potential Republican candidates...

...They have also helped the American public (if not leaders) to recognize that there is evil loose in the world which succumbs neither to the seduction of American goodness--Carter's government "as kind and good and moral as the American people"--nor, unlike the postwar days, to the fear of American might...

...How well I remember the way Nixon, as President, used to rave about Connall's skill as a political "nutcutter," his powers as a speaker, and his ability to "get things done...

...John Connally does...

...Without differing from Kissinger's view of Connally as a leader, one can find serious reasons for questioning the current wisdom which rates the swaggering Texan as Ronald Reagan's leading challenger...

...Early in the race, while most of his rivals were still struggling to boost their name recognition, Connally's problem was that quite a few people already recognized his name and decided that they didn't like it...

...Thus his description of John Connally in his recently published memoirs merits consideration as expert testimony: Highly intelligent, superbly endowed physically, he looked and acted as if he were born to Aram Bakshian, Jr., former aide to Presidents Nixon and Ford, writes frequently for The American Spectator...

...9 Balance the budget (which Connally says he would do within two years if elected...

...His build was matched by his ego...

...The man exudes power and is a past master at accruing and wielding it...

...The "Emerging Republican Majority" that Kevin Phillips had prophesied in 1969 seemed imminent, and John Connally decided that he wanted in on the action...

...In retrospect, he has been singularly unfortunate in his choice of patrons-first I..BJ and then Richard Nixon...

...Perhaps nasty people deserve a candidate, and the nasty constituency is not negligible...

...This essay is adapted from his new book, The Candid a t e s - 1980: A Professional Handicaps the Presidential Derby, published by Arlington House...

...They will face the undeniable fact that Mr...

...I do...

...If Connally had known in 1973 what he knows now, he would probably still be a Democrat...

...John Connaily is an obviously strong leader, but many voters are uncertain whether his is "good" strength or " b a d " strength...

...My usually calm, scholarly friend, columnist George Will, who bitterly denounced Connally's Mideast plan, quipped that Connaily "may have the support of 80 percent of the officers of the 'Fortune 500' corporations, but they are (to exaggerate just a bit) about 80 percent of his support...

...S t r o n g , not to say pugnacious, Connally may appear to be too much of a leader in the autocratic sense for many voters...

...I t would be a real catastrophe if Stalin should die at the present time," Truman said that October, when the Soviets and Americans were alread), on a collision course, for he then considered Stalin a "moderating influence," a sentiment sure to reemerge in regard to Brezhnev later this year...

...That is quite different from being rash...

...He is a true patriot but also a true autocrat in the LBJ mold--more polished than Lyndon but every bit as overbearing and egotistical...

...Personally, I question his judgment...

...He deserves great credit, to cite but one example, for parlaying little more than his bravado and the dubious prestige of being a retired Democratic governor of Texas to coming within inches of being Nixon's successor ("Every cabinet should have a future President in it," Nixon told John Ehrlichman by way of explaining his appointment of Connally to Treasury--and he meant it...

...George then illustrated his point with a Field poll taken in California in the spring of 1979 which revealed Connally as the only Republican candidate who "generated more negative than positive impressions," and a more current private poll targeted at Republican primary voters in the Northeast which showed a solid 30 percent "would not vote for Connally under any circumstances...

...And many Western leaders are sure to allude to the " r e a l " hawks lurking in the Kremlin, much as President Carter did last year to bolster support for SALT If, and as President Truman did in 1945...

...And "leadership," when applied to a glib, somewhat overbearing Texan like Connaily, summons up unpleasant memories of LBJ...

...John Connally has marked off friendly and enemy constituencies and boldly outlined policies most candidates are afraid to grapple with even in the vaguest terms...

...But I believe that in 1980 the people he frightens--and the people in whom he inspires distrust or distaste--will outnumber his supporters in the GOP race...

...Whatever one might think of his views, he was a leader...

...I leave it to my readers to decide whether Connally's nine-point proposal for a peace settlement in the Middle East is what he claims, or the "total surrender to blackmail by oil-producing countries" that its critics claim...

...In 1971, with the Democrats already beginning to set the suicidal course that ended with Nixon's 1972 landslide victory over George McGovern, it seemed as if a drastic political realignment was about to take place...

...On the other hand, his tendency to take the clear, hard line where others waffle, also sets Connaily apart for praise by Americans tired of the usual campaign blahs...

...Connally may even become "the thinking person's Agnew," which is, of course, a contradiction in terms...

...First of all, so brazen an attack may not be necessary for the Russians...

...In the ordinary course of events, Connally would still be practicing lucrative law in Houston, as he was in 1971 when Richard Nixon, casting about for a well-known Democrat to take on the thankless post of Secretary of the Treasury--and add a soupt:on of bipartisanship to his administration's economic policy--decided on Connally...

...It is this Connally abrasiveness--and the vindictiveness it generates in usually blas~ commentators like George W i l l - - t h a t raises questions about Connally's leadership image...

...So he came to Washington, was an impressive political success as Secretary of the Treasury, went on to head Democrats for Nixon in the 1972 campaign, and, in 1973, formally announced that he had turned Republican...

...he reminds working.class audiences, "is to be cold, hungry, and unemployed...it's time to stop taking scientific advice from Jane Fonda and Ralph Nader...

...cure a migraine, Connally may have lost more than he gained...

...Certainly, a residue of scandal still haunts him...

...And so far, most grassroots Republicans seem to be treating him with the same mixture of awe and distrust that the British did Arnold...

...It's the old Benedict Arnold syndrome at work again...

...If South Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Angola, Ethiopia, and South Yemen--to name only those places where new Marxist regimes have come to power since 1975 with the help of Soviet arms and Cuban or Soviet combat troops--were not evidence enough, let us hope that, with the invasion of Afghanistan, such illusions are dead...

...How much of Connally's strength is real, and how much of it is just a product of the masterful Texan's tall talking...

...lead [Kissinger writes of Connally...

...From then on it was downhill...

...So Connally's two biggest assets may also prove his two biggest liabilities on the road to the nomination...

...Washington, which had recently seemed such a warm, promising place, turned grey around the edges for the high roller from Texas...

...For the purposes of handicapping him as a Presidential contender, the real question is whether his position helped or hurt his chances...

...Connally is definitely, in Arthur Burns' wonderful understatement, "a forceful, ambitious man...