Systems Paralysis
Cohen, Eliot
"Systems Paralysis"
...Initially, the systems analysts claimed only to concern themselves with weapons procurement, not strategy or tactics...
...His eager young associates hid their moral convictions behind a seemingly objective method of analysis which obscured that their questions too often predetermined the answers and that these answers led to a long-term stagnation in our military technology...
...Thus, continual re-evaluation of nuclear versus conventional power added years onto the acquisition of the Kennedy...
...control of the military, nor even against civilian intervention in questions of armament, tactics, and strategy--such intervention is legitimate and necessary...
...To be sure, they admit that "analysis is necessarily incomplete" and "falls short of (natural) scientific research," but systems analysts are proud of this modest awareness of their imperfections...
...If they phrase the question the first way, those who have the final say about buying weapons and devising strategy must make arbitrary and rigid decisions about how much money to spend, but do not need refined measures of benefit...
...The most important aspect of systems analysis as a mode of thought is quantification...
...The systems analysis approach under McNamara produced two beneficial effects...
...Enthoven put the problem this way: A conventional carrier costs $280 million, a nuclear carrier costs $400 million, and the four destroyer escorts needed to protect an aircraft carrier cost roughly $120 million...
...When a systems analyst defines the problem in terms of a mission, he artificially compartmentalizes war planning and neglects the fact that weapons can do many different things: During World War If, for example, the German eighty-eight millimeter antiaircraft gun was discovered to be a superb antitank weapon and served as such...
...Thus there is no point to the study of military history other than to impress upon ourselves the importance of understanding technological change...
...Butcontrol and direction must come from an understanding of war as a complicated and difficult art, not from overweening confidence in the lore of economics...
...it is an activity dominated by moral forces because of the dangers it involves...
...Carl von Clausewitz, the greatest (perhaps the only) philosopher of war knew of approaches that resemble systems analysis...
...To begin with, the introduction of systems analysis slowed down the acquisition of new weapons...
...systems analysts did encounter opposition, of course, from such men as S.L.A...
...The systems analyst is the fellow who is likely to be forced to deal with the problem in which the difficulty lies precisely in deciding what ought to be done, not simply in how to do it...
...Now, in each case the military changes involved were considerable...
...they could be expanded or contracted...
...We cannot merely reject a technique--we must change a way of thought...
...Thus, even if systems analysts did not wish to shape strategy and tactics, they would do so nonetheless...
...anti-tank warfare or interdiction of enemy logistics) or scenario (e.g...
...The unit of analysis is the mission or the object: The enemy therefore is often regarded as a passive collection of targets...
...In 1971 Kissinger's systems analysts suggested that troops from the Mekong Delta be moved north to participate in operations near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ...
...First, the systems analysts urged, and the services endorsed, greater investment in logistical facilities, specifically cargo ships and long-range transport aircraft...
...Our technical and numerical superiority did not prevent us from losing the Vietnam war...
...all the more reason, then, to turn away from the study of economics and towards the study of war...
...Systems analysts are willing--nay, eager --to condemn defective analysis, but not to re-examine the premises of the whole approach...
...The choice under such conditions, according to McNamara's advisers, would have to be between the effectiveness of a nuclear ship with four escorts and a conventional vessel with eight...
...Even before McNamara came to the Pentagon, civilian Secretaries of Defense were consolidat'ing and increasing their control over the armed services...
...But because military utility is hard to measure, and because seemingly minor changes in speed or some other characteristic may add up to qualitative change, the systems analyst is prone to accuse services of "gold-plating" when, in fact, they are not...
...Their recommenda. tions pay" little heed to two things: the possibility of counter-measures (e.g...
...After World War II three types of strategic thought developed in this country...
...According to them, "choosing strategies and weapon systems is fundamentally an economic problem, using the term in its precise sense...
...The traditional view had been that limits on defense spending follow from the risks a country would accept and the price it was willing to pay for defense, but that because of the unpredictability of war, more intelligent spending would always be better than less...
...The appeal of systems analysis went deeper, however...
...The title of the foremost systems analysis primer is Systems Analysis and Policy Planning: Application in Defense...
...Does it mean ten percent better or one hundred percent better...
...The systems analyst is a critic and an entrepreneurnot an occasionally useful but subordinate expert...
...McNamara increased his control of the Defense Department by his own diligent study and investigation, by increasing the size and responsibilities of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and by introducing program budgeting and systems analysis...
...annoyed legislators told the analysts as muchl If we adopt the second variant of cost effectiveness--fixed effectiveness least cost--we must have extraordinary, indeed unobtainable measures of benefit, measures which take into account all of the conceivable political and military contexts in which a carrier might be used, and the new and different kinds of tactics arid strategy that a nuclear carrier could make possible...
...True, McNamara ignored the role the B-52 could play as a conventional bomber...
...Furthermore, because technology rather than human nature is the most important element in war, the systems analyst defines success in terms of annihilating enemy targets ("attriting," in defense planners' jargon), not in terms of destroying the enemy's will to resist or disrupting the cohesion of his units...
...The fixed-effectiveness-least-cost formulation narrows the focus of analysis: It prevents the strategist from appreciating the need for flexible weapons and tactics...
...The first was their willingness to denounce "bad analysis," even their own, a tactic that deflected theoretical arguments...
...McNamara suggested that the Air Force train its pilots in combat squadrons, the way the Soviets do: "If it is not viable for us one would +conclude that it is not viable for the Soviets...
...prolonged systems analysis delayed and finally killed the B-1 bomber...
...They willingly reformulated the problem, however: Given $400 million dollars, which choice offered more effectiveness, the conventional carrier plus four esco'rts, or the nuclear carrier without...
...Systems analysis is therefore independent and far reaching~ "In the economists' world there are always alternatives, alternative ways of using resources or doing a job...
...McNamara declared that he needed to know "the military effectiveness and the cost of a B-52 squadron as it relates to a Minuteman missile squadron and a Polaris submarine...
...Laird argued--andMcNamara did not deny--that if the Japanese had bought the Zero according to cost-effectiveness criteria, they might well have decided against an airplane engine capable of such efforts...
...After the Vietnam fiasco discussion of limited war ended, but it seems likely to return as defense planners and strategists attempt to cope with the Persian Gulf problem...
...The attrition mentality of systems analysis struck a responsive chord in other segments of the military, particularly in the Army...
...The most important tool of systems analysis is cost-effectiveness, an economist's way of posing a problem and suggesting a proper solution...
...THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR NOVEMBER 1980 23 Enthoven gives a good example of the cost-effectiveness approach by describing the logic of McNamara's preference (during the early 1960s) for a conventional over a nuclear aircraft c a r r i e r - - t h e John F. Kennedy, or CVA-67...
...Clausewitz therefore decisively rejected systems analysis...
...They prefer the second approach, that is, to discover what is sufficient and then find the cheapest way of procuring it...
...Systems analysis means a way of approaching defense problems, a certain attitude, and thereby includes more than the two techniques described above--the systems analysts themselves say as much...
...Unlike other countries, the United States has few historians of war or military men of letters who could have replied cogently and publicly to this application of modern social science to the problems of war and warplanning...
...The technological branches of the armed services, Particularly the Air Force, were favorably impressed by systems analysis's treatment of technology as the prime determinant of war...
...Their book and other primers use homely examples of housewives choosing washing machines, farmers THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR NOVEMBER 1980 25 dence came not from superior knowledge or intuition, but from possession of superior analytic tools...
...Previously, statesmen who coerced military services into choosing certain weapons, tactics, or strategies did so either on the basis of political considerations or because they had studied and thought through a particular military problem...
...The extraordinary self-confidence of systems analysis derives from this belief that it is scientific...
...Navy by funding a nuclear aircraft carrier...
...academics, bureaucrats, and other members of the defense establishment have taken a variety of positions and disagreed openly, often bitterly...
...But, if we accept the systems analyst's technology-centered view of war, there is noreason why he should not plan and direct operations whose aim and method is simply calculable attrition...
...Clausewitz argued that war is partly a science but largely an art, an art that "includes all activities that exist for the sake of war, such as the creation of the fighting forces, their raising, armament, equipment, and training...
...Technology today changes faster than ever, therefore the experience of professional military men, who by nature are conservative and cling to outmoded methods of doing things, should not be given much weight...
...Similarly, military analyses performed by Enthoven of the conventional balance in Central Europe argued that NATO and Warsaw Pact forces were ."equal" because both sides had equal numbers of soldiers and artillery tubes--his analysis did not account, again, for all those factors that have traditionally shaped the outcome of war...
...An art critic need not be an artist, but he must appreciate the difficulties of painting and sculpting...
...The systems analyst regards technology as the controlling element in war: The machine gun reduced to irrelevance much of the tactical planning preceding World War 1. Armored warfare made a mockery of the assumption on which the Maginot Line was based...
...Finally, the adoption of systems analysis leads us to believe that systems analysis can ultimately direct not merely procurement but strategy as well...
...artillery barrages or improved armor design), and the difference between results scored on a test range by a healthy, relaxed, and safe test engineer and what actually happens when a missile is fired on the battlefield by a debilitated, nervous, and frightened soldier...
...It is intrinsically unpredictable, in large part because of the problem of enemy reaction to our measures at the technical, tactical, strategic, and political levels...
...Analysts concede that not everything might be quantifiable, but as.James Schlesinger pointed out, "a ritualistic recitation of the danger of excessive quantification characteristically precedes the attempt to push quantitative analysis to() far...
...They rejected the notion that Congress could decide to buy the nuclear carrier because it believed it worth the price, and then raise additional funds for four destroyers...
...These attitudes or predispositions, however, are often necessary to make costeffectiveness thinking work...
...Hence their preoccupation with the question, "how much is enough...
...But the spheres are by no means fixed...
...Thus, systems analysts argued that a nuclear carrier merely performs the same missions that a conventional carrier could carry out more cheaply, that the B-52 could take the place of a new strategic bomber, that a modified M-60 could delay the need for a new tank...
...The systems analysts devised measures of effectiveness (sorties per time period, airplane load, etc...
...Since World War II the American armed forces have been particularly sensitire to shifts in domestic opinion...
...by neglecting intangible psychological and political components he aimed for a predictability that was illusory and caused needless strains to our alliances...
...The development of naval aviation dealt battleships such a blow that their defenders became a symbol of adherence to outmoded thinking...
...a sudden, massive Soviet invasion of West Germany...
...Fortune magazine asked Secretary McNamara in 1965 whether the defense budget would be higher if the gross national product was one trillion dollars rather than $660 billion...
...The bureaucratic potency of systems analysis made it attractive even to those civilians who knew its failings...
...The introduction of systems analysis, however, had an effect that extended beyond increasing the bureaucratic power of a particular office...
...McNamara, however, moved faster and further than previous Secretaries in extending civilian control...
...He described, for example, the relative merits of a squadron of cavalry, a battery of artillery, and a battalion of infantry: If we could compare the cost of raising and maintaining the various arms with the service each performs in time of war, one would end up with a definite figure that would express the optimum equation in abstract terms...
...Robert McNamara once confessed that he considered the introduction of systems analysis to the Department of Defense to be his greatest legacy to American military policy...
...If, as seems likely, this country will face military challenges in the next decade, we must prepare ourselves for uncertainty and sacrifice, and we cannot do so by means of methods that promise predictability and technological fixes...
...The systems analyst divides up his studies by mission (e.g...
...Systems analysts also believe in scientific method, and therefore in the superiority of their approach to the methods of procurement used until 1960...
...We cannot turn to a different, ready-made school of American strategists because the methods of systems analysis have spread throughout the strategic studies community and are no longer confined to a few adepts...
...its authors apply a general method to a particular set of problems--that is, defense planning...
...He must be firmly convinced that a 33 percent increase in marginal cost brings a 33 percent increase in utility...
...Thus, many younger officers have accepted, often enthusiastically, the jargon and frame of mind created by systems analysis, to the dismay of more traditional senior officers...
...Systems analysis requires, of course, analysis, the description of a mission and various ways of achieving it, lengthy studies of comparative effectiveness, and so forth...
...The systems analysts do not, by and large, approve of such an irrational method of administration as fixing expenditure and then trying to buy the most one can within a given budget...
...Kissinger commented, "These arguments overlooked that a defensive strategy implies a war of attrition, a prospect fundamentally intolerable for a country outnumbered by around thirty to one...
...an antitank missile costing some tens of thousands of dollars can destroy a half million dollar tank) suggest that the tank is obsolete: They urge the acquisition of large numbers of such weapons to replace current tank-heavy units...
...Their plans took no notice of the fact that troops who fought well to defend their homes in the south would desert rather than fight in Laos...
...Systems analysis discourages the study 26 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR NOVEMBER 1980 of one's opponents, his language, politics, culture, tactics, and leadership...
...but each branch has its own particular use and thus a different sphere of effective action...
...Both strategic-nuclear and limitedwar theory were and remain controversial...
...This ignores, of course, differences in equipment, organization, doctrine, and culture...
...Systems analysis favors, as we have noted, a strategy of attrition, and therefore pays attention to the problem of bringing a sufficient number of men and weapons to bear on the enemy...
...The first, naturally enough, was the theory of strategic war, whose argot (hard-target kill capabilities, time-urgent countermilitary potential, etc...
...the title, in fact, of Alain Enthoven and K. Wayne Smith's history of their experiences as two of McNamara's systems analysts...
...Cost-effectiveness requires simplification...
...At least, as McNamara put it, they try to "establish a rational foundation as opposed to an emotional foundation" for defense planning...
...When the systems analyst works by scenario he may disregard those elements of accident and unforeseeable enemy countermeasures which dominate real war and make nonsense of the best laid plans...
...and attempted to discover the cheapest way of buying a certain level of effectiveness...
...24 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR NOVEMBER 1980 In 1964 then Congressman Melvin Laird belabored McNamara for this sort of failure of systems analysis to account for the military significance of seemingly trivial technical advantages...
...But this is a guessing game . . . - - t h i s , of course, at a time when the technology of war was much simpler than it is today, and therefore theoretically more amenable to systems analysis...
...Clausewitz continued by assuming that the squadron, battery, and battalion cost the same amount of money: Could we then calculate the optimal cost-effective solution of our military problems...
...It might conceivably be possible if destructiveness were all that had to be measured...
...Thus, for nearly two decades systems analysis has escaped the critical examination it deserves...
...a new main battle tank did not appear until 1980--over two decades after the introduction of the M-60...
...He used this small systems analysis office to conduct bureaucratic guerrilla warfare against Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird, who had reduced the power of the systems analysts...
...l . he roots of systems analysis lie in economics: The early systems analysts, including Charles Hitch, Roland McKean, and Alain Enthoven, were in fact economists, many of them from the Rand Corporation...
...Cost-effectiveness (or cost-benefit analysis as it is sometimes called) asks either "Given a fixed sum of money, how can we buy the most effectiveness (or utility) ?" or "Given a certain desired level of effectiveness, what is the cheapest method of achieving it...
...That strategic bomber was originally supposed to carry only nuclear weapons, but it served as a conventional bomber in Vietnam, a use that was unforeseen and unintended, but wholly successful...
...Further, because of systems analysis's roots in economics,the systems analyst also assigns weight to arguments based on marginal utility...
...In addition, the systems analysts were social scientists and benefited from the reputation of value-free social science...
...in each case technological improvement offered a hedge against increases in enemy strength...
...The second was the theoretical treatment of problems of limited war, which began in the 1950s as an offshoot of the larger strategic discussion, but took on a life of its own thereafter...
...more than once has it saved a great nation from defeat...
...On the other hand, the outcome of McNamara's policies was the same as if the traditional, eclectic, service-oriented approach had obtained...
...We do not argue here against civilian THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR NOVEMBER 1980 27...
...The Office of Systems Analysis-now the Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation--is no longer as powerful as it once was, but many defense experts, consciously or not, use the systems analysis approach when they discuss military problems as diverse as the acquisition of a new strategic bomber and the future of the tank in land warfare...
...During the early stages of the Vietnam war the Office of Systems Analysis did not directly manage the Vietnam war, but the mindset of systems analysis led McNamara to think in terms of "making the costs exceed the benefits" for the North Vietnamese, rather than in terms of breaking the enemy's will and ability to fight, or arranging a political solution to the problem...
...Political choice is not economically rational: Additional funds may be available to enhance the power and prestige of the U.S...
...Henry Kissinger describes how in July 1970, when the Egyptians under Soviet guidance began to move surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to the Suez Canal, systems analysts argued that Israel would make a more cost-effective choice if it bought weapons to repel a cross-canal attack rather than use expensive Phantom jets to destroy the SAMs...
...Winston Churchill and David Lloyd George, for example, imposed innovations on the British Navy (oil-fired engines and the convoy system, respectively), but not on the basis of arcane analytic techniques...
...McNamara defined systems analysis as "quantitative common sense" and his disciples declared that it is better to quantify than to use adjectives, even when numbers must be coaxed or coerced from uncooperative data...
...was vaguely known to the public if not thoroughly understood by it...
...We may fight our next battle under far less propitious circumstances than in Vietnam...
...We will find no simple alternative to systems analysis, for indeed, one of systems analysis's worst flaws is its penchant for terrible simplification...
...During the early 1960s sociologists, political scientists, and stray economists took limited war in a new direction, and elaborated theories of counterinsurgency for use in Southeast Asia...
...Their self-confiIf we accept systems analysis we must therefore accept three of its fundamental-yet often hidden--propositions...
...The Office of Systems Analysis served McNamara faithfully: Its members were loyal to him alone, and largely because of this soon became "the basic force planners in the whole system...
...Yet we must ask whether a method that consistently makes the same mistakes is not inherently flawed...
...The attitude is that of the engineer building a bridge across a i-iver, who does not for a moment think that the river will act deliberately in order to thwart him...
...According to systems analysis, "the problem of justifying a modification is essentially the same as that of justifying a new development...
...Finally, and not least important, the military accepted the dominant civilian view of military affairs because most armies, sooner or later, adopt the opinions of the society they fight for...
...The best and most recent example of this phenomenon is the claim of the systems analysts for precision guided munitions (PGMs), in particular, infantrycarried wire-guided antitank missiles...
...A decision to buy a small aircraft carrier may force the Navy to conduct war according to a defensive strategy, to protect lines of communication rather than attack the enemy...
...The purpose of this article is to define systems analysis, examine its logic, and describe the political and military consequences of its acceptance by the American defense community...
...The Eliot Cohen is a teaching fellow_ in the Department of Government of the Graduate School o fArts and Sciences at Harvard University...
...First, if we use the fixed-cost-maximum-benefit method, we disregard political reality...
...This sometimes took absurdly petty forms, as when he proudly announced the "consolidation of eighteen different types and sizes of butcher smocks, four kinds of belt buckles, and six kinds of women's exercise bloomers...
...America on War and Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eliot Cohen SYSTEMS PARALYSIS Social scientists make bad generals...
...Moreover, one cannot design a weapon without predetermining its uses: For example, the armor, engine, and cannon of a tank will dictate in some measure whether one's tactics consist of rapid wheeling maneuvers by masses of vehicles or slower movement conducted by infantry, artillery, and armor operating together...
...In both formulations cost-effectiveness disregards reality...
...pondering which crops to planL and businessmen picking out limousines, to explain how skrategists should select, procure, and deploy the armed forces of the United States...
...When the admirals who supported the nucle~ aircraft carrier explained why nuclear power offered military advantages, McNamara asked, "Precisely what does this mean...
...the essence of military assessment is evaluation of technology...
...the United States finally invested in land-based, naval, and airborne nuclear weapons...
...The dominant tradition Of the American Army dates back to Ulysses S. Grant and extends through George Marshall and William Westmoreland: It relies on numerical strength and, above all, firepower to grind into oblivion an economically inferior opponent, Moreover, the enginee~ ng, problem-solving approach exemplified'by West Point was compatible with systems analysis...
...McNamara's need to define e f f e c t i v e n e s s - - i n this case, in terms of nuclear warheads delivered against Soviet targets--led him to disregard the multiple uses of weapons, in this case, the B-52...
...these monies might not be available to purchase four more destroyers...
...The Laird reforms, which were directed against the systems analysts, ameliorated the problem but did not solve it...
...nonetheless, he deserves credit for considering strategic nuclear problems as distinct from conventional ones, an effect that the Soviets achieved by establishing a separate military service, the Strategic Rocket Forces...
...The choice from Congress's point of view was indeed between a nuclear carrier with four escorts and a conventional carrier with four escorts...
...Their calculations of exchange ratios (e.g...
...Curiously enough, the American military, after an initial struggle, made its peace with systems analysis~ It did so at first in order to parry the thrusts of the systems analysts working for McNamara: The services created their own systems analysis offices, whose assessments rarely concurred with those of McNamara's men, but favored instead pet projects of the services...
...It is an activity that should always he guided by political intelligence...
...This is so because important measures of success can be reduced to numbers...
...American statesmen had realized that the postwar military establishment, huge by comparison with its pre-1940 predecessor, needed central civilian control...
...Accustomed to the notion that at a certain point large increases in marginal cost bring negligible increases in utility, he casts a jaundiced eye on the Navy's request for nuclear-powered aircraft carriers...
...He defines a set of objectives, usually in the form of percentage attrition of enemy units, and considers different ways of achieving that objective...
...The systems analyst describes the battlefield as the FEBA (Forward Edge of Battle Area), a term which seems to preclude operational maneuvers that befuddle or paralyze the enemy by menacing his flanks or slicing his lines of communication...
...The introduction of systems analysis had other long-term effects that extended beyond the reinforcement of civilian control and increased attention to logistics and nuclear weaponry...
...Certainly not," he replied...
...Systems analysis opposes innovation when the changes involved seem to take the form of an expensive version of the current, basic design...
...In addition to a store of telling ad hominem invective, the systems analysts possessed two further defenses...
...The spread of systems analysis did not merely shape the way we think about military problems: It affected the distribution of political power in Washington as well...
...Finally, systems analysis leads its practitioners to neglect the importan~:e of politics in the largest sense...
...In either case, systems analysis leads its practitioners to underestimate the importance of tactics (the deployment of units in battle) and strategy (the direction of battles for the higher purposes of war...
...Henry Kissinger, for example, accused McNamara of the following: He overemphasized the quantitative aspects of defense planning...
...Alternatively, systems analysis assumes that the enemy resembles us...
...The analysts, in turn, dismissed the opposition as the product of parochialism, intellectual sloth, and even cranky senility...
...In sharp contrast, systems analysis, the third type of strategic thought, has met with little intellectual resistance since its introduction in the early 1960s...
...This ensured their popularity with those social and natural scientists who make up the bulk of this country's strategists and students of military affairs...
...Japanese air superiority at the beginning of World War II resulted in large part from the ten-mileperhour speed advantage of the Zero fighter...
...attachment to a service distorts one's views...
...The second proposition is that we can know how much is enough...
...Defense planners would, according to the theory of systems analysis, benefit more ?9 from an advanced degree in economics than from combat or bureaucratic experience, or knowledge of history...
...Despite such trenchant criticism, however, Kissinger brought K. Wayne Smith, one of the foremost systems analysts, to his national security staff...
...Systems analysts do not need sophisticated computers or knowledge of abstruse higher mathematics, but they do need quantitative measures of military effectiveness, and they think they can devise them...
...Many of the new weapons associated with the McNamara period were in fact developed during the 1950s--for example, Polaris, Minuteman,the F-111,and the AR-15 rifle...
...The main criticism ?9o f systems analysis, the one that embraces all the others, is that it does not treat war as a unique phenomenon that requires application and experience--real or vicariousin order to be understood...
...Secondly, systems analysis led McNamara to consider strategic weaponry apart from other arms, to compare the merits of various strategic weapons, including the Polaris submarine, the Minuteman missile, and the B-52 bomber, apart from the service to which they were attached...
...First, there is no distinct field of military or politico-military study and knowledge...
...Marshall, Admiral Hyman Rickover, General Curtis LeMay, and Hanson Baldwin, but their criticism was rarely thorough, because they dwelt on the arrogance of the practitioners of systems analysis and particular failures oftheir art, rather than on the theory itself...
...Systems analysts favor technological innovation, however, if they believe that a new (usually inexpensive) weapon can fill an old mission...
...But the problem is of greater proportion (today) than ever before...
...Because systems analysis rejected prudential military knowledge, it enabled young civilian analysts to contradict and oppose their military rivals with clean consciences...
Vol. 13 • November 1980 • No. 11
