Pipelines and Pipedreams

...For example, Tito might well be most receptive to overtures leading to increased economic benefits for Yugoslavia, whatever Moscow might think of the idea...

...The Alternative: An American Spectator May 1977 13...

...In discussing the four propositions I formulated earlier, my mind turns immediately to recent programs of the official Damascus radio on the question of the existence of Israel...

...And the commentator went on: Another point made by Allon is that the Arabs intend to demand Israeli retreat not only from Sinai, Golan, Jerusalem and Oaza but, primarily, from Tel Aviv, Haifa and Nazareth...

...Fourth--and this is a conviction held with particular satisfaction by successive American administrations-the U.S...

...With the recent pronouncements of Mr...

...The Arabs will not only demand the West Bank and the Gaza strip, but all of the land conquered since 1948...The slogan that the rights of the Palestinians be restored and Palestine liberated can have but one meaning--the elimination of Israel...

...The shifting counters of Arab politics, moving to and fro across a desert landscape itself impermanent, kaleidescopic and ridden by mirages, give little guidance to the observer...

...The strategic importance of this area is too great to allow us to pursue a policy of benign neglect...

...We did not speak of the destruction of Israel, but of its annulment, meaning the annulment of the Zionist political entity and its military organization...

...Meir has pointed out, is to give the same assurance as was enjoyed by the Christians in Lebanon...

...And there are signs of a new wariness of the Palestinians--not only in the ceasefire imposed in Lebanon by Syria but also in the reduction of Arab support for the PLO at the UN (at the outset of the present General Assembly session, PLO representatives were denied some privileges which they had been led to believe would be theirs...

...The truth is that even the most moderate Arab statements are only relatively moderate...

...It is hardly conceivable that Western politicians could have come so readily and with such gullibility to accept these propositions were it not for the effect of the use of oil as a weapon in the 1973 war, the effectiveness of Palestinian terror on all countries except Israel, and the competition between the super-powers for influence in the Arab world...

...Arafat, the so-called moderate, stated that "Wherever you may be, inside the occupied land or outside k, may your rifles be always pointed at the imperialist enemy, the treacherous Zionist...

...At present, the most direct route for the Soviet Navy to enter the Mediterranean is through the easily closed Bosporus and Dardanelles...

...For, contrary to the third proposition, and on all the evidence of the huge output of Palestinian journalism and broadcasting, there is no firm line between the PLO and such terrorist groups as AI Fatah and Black September...

...or to indulge in what I call the "nudge and wink" method of diplomacy, suggesting, that is, that "of course" moderate men like Anwar Sadat do not really mean what they say when they sound bloodthirsty...

...A new concentration of Russian naval might in the Adriatic would require a response in kind by the United States and NATO...

...From this it is concluded that the Arab policy of the Rabat summit--calling for a Palestinian state between Jordan and Israel--is reasonable...

...s The Future That Doesn't Work...

...and a little more about their own long-term interests in that theatre...

...Ultimately peace may come to the Middle East...

...So far, I have essentially described only what is: it does not always have to be...

...As a third step, we must end our fearful avoidance of stating a philosophy on which our foreign policy is based...

...Second, the West appears to be convinced-and the French and West German governments have stated as much openly--that Israel is strong enough to make large political and military concessions, certainly to the extent of allowing the birth of a separate Palestinian state, and probably to the extent of retreating to at least the pre-1967 borders...

...Kissinger and others have freely proffered...

...The Balkan states traditionally have served as both a political and physical buffer between West and East...

...Reporting the summit meeting of December 21, 1976 between Presidents Sadat and Assad, the station stated that "the Arabs will render Israel an account which includes not only Jerusalem, Nablus, Gaza, Sinai, and the Golan, but primarily Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jaffa, and Nazareth...

...like most Arab political movements, the Palestinians are constantly afflicted by violent faction...

...Meanwhile, it must be saidm and all the interests of the West as well as the interests of Israel must be considered when it is said--that the indispensable preliminary to any serious move towards peace must be the open, straightforward, honest, guaranteed, and secure recognition of the State of Israel...

...But the alternative is the likelihood of destruction...

...to dismiss the record of recent years wholly from one's mind...

...But it is worth remembering--and this fact, in my view, destroys the fourth proposition, the one about increasing U.S...

...In that country, of course, there are quite separate reasons for believing that the continued retention of a/1 the territory taken in 1967 is unwise, notably the conviction that ultimate peace is unattainable without some concessions, and the fear that retaining a large Arab population would disturb the country's cultural and (relative) racial Homogeneity...

...True, the shock the Egyptian government has sustained, coupled with uncertain domestic political prospects in Israel, make it now unlikely that a major advance towards settlement will be made in 1977...

...Hard though it may be to say, that break may come only in a war, when one Arab state refuses to fight...

...With neighbors like these what faith could the Israelis pose in the kind of international guarantee of insecure borders which Dr...

...Wide swaths of Israeli political opinion believe, with Foreign Minister Yigal Allon, that it is highly desirable to encourage the "less aggressive, more realistic" Arab politicians...

...The Carter administration must act forcefully and promptly in order to maintain essential political and military equilibrium...

...One can hardly assert that the American influence established by Dr...

...But some real advantage may be gained by delay, if it means that the Western Powers will use the interval to learn a little more about the realities of the Middle East...

...With moderates like these why waste space on quotations from the extremists...

...Not much comfort there, one would have thought, for the growing belief in the West that the Arabs are readier to accept the reality of Israel...

...There followed an extraordinary exchange which is a classic in the ghoulish annals of Arab semantics...

...The Lebanese civil war, for example, led at least some Arab countries to share the view of King Hnssein of Jordan that the Palestinians were dangerous neighbors...

...It seems likely that the real path to peace will open only when one--anymArab country breaks ranks...

...As a glance at the map will indicate, that independence is of vital strategic importance to the West...

...but that, as Mrs...

...Only at the end of last year Mr...

...A more prominent Soviet role in Yugoslavia would also add another element of instability to the confused political turbulence in neighboring Italy...

...Four propositions have gained increasing influence over Western foreign policy in the Middle East since 1973...

...But that was not all...

...Third, every Western government without exception believes that there are moderate as well as extremist factions within the Palesdnian movement, and that the former should be propitiated in order to outflank the latter...

...At best, it seems, they promise not to maasacre the Jews (for this we have the word of Mr...

...The world should not have to question what the American positions are on basic ideals of human dignity and national autonomy...

...I would hazard one other thought...

...Radio Damascus picked him up...

...is seen as replacing Soviet influence in Arab countries, particularly in Egypt...

...Of course, a tiny, open, democratic country like Israel, embattled against twenty foes--foes supplied with arms by her frien~ls a s well as her enemies--feels the strain o f every small engagement in a way that the dictatorships facing her do not...

...But it may come in peace, and that is to be hoped for...

...Of course, if it were true that American influence had replaced Russian influence in Egypt particularly and the Middle East generally, we could look on the Arab output of rhetoric in a more positive spirit...

...Although the Kremlin will voice its outrage at the "provocatioh" implicit in such a policy, other governments are likely to welcome American initiatives from which they might derive benefit in terms of increased autonomy and flexibility...

...But it will take a long time, and it seems consistently to be the case that the frenetic school of modern diplomacy is willing to tolerate any expenditure save that of time...

...PatmckCosgrave Pipelines and Pipedreams Four wishful propositions about the prospects for Middle East peace...

...It has been increasingly believed, first of all, that all the most important Arab powers really want peace, and that they are prepared to accept the existence of Israel...

...In fourteen years time the boy will be a soldier and will kill us...

...The strain of waiting for recognition of her right to exist, even in a truncated form, is and will be enormous...

...Jimmy Carter deserves our praise for advancing the cause of morality in politics...

...Buffer diplomacy is a policy that is realistic and in America's interest...

...Certainly, Tito enjoys playing off the superpowers against each other as a means of securing his own country's independence...

...but the truth of the matter is that Arafat's PLO is an umbrella organization to which all the others belong, and through which they co-operate with each other: their internecine quarrels are of less importance than the fundamental fact of their alliance...

...In September a reshuffle of the Kuwaiti government and the suspension of the country's parliamentary assembly 12 The Alternative: An American Spectator May 1977 demonstrated that the country's ruler was determined not to allQw his territory to replace Lebanon as a PLO base (there is a higher percentage of Palestinians in Kuwait than in any other Arab country except Jordan...

...If so much moderation were abroad in Arab lands, surely a little more than the pitiful collecdon of Sadat interviews would be available for examination...

...Before addressing these increasingly powerful arguments, however, it is worth mentioning that they have had some effect in Israel itself...

...To damage the first proposition is to damage the second, the suggestion that Israel is strong enough to withdraw to pre-1967 boundaries or to permit the creation of a separate Palestinian state...

...The platitudinous references to human rights included in the Helsinki Accord are noteworthy only for their rarity in the recent history of American foreign affairs...

...and their relativity is m the statements of the terrorist guttersnipes like Haddeid who hole up in Aden...

...Some Israelis, too, are not without impatience and are, as it seems to me, only too willing to take risks for peace...

...On the other hand, Syrian dominance in Lebanon, especially when considered together with the rise of Syrian President Assad's power in Jordan and the establishment of at least a putative Syro-Jordanian federation, could represent a partial fulfillment of the aim of creating a Greater Syria which has been the stated objective of governments in Damascus since independence, and which is ultimately directed towards the recreation of the old Turkish province of Syria, including all of Jordan and Lebanon, and all of Israel...

...And, indeed, it would be wrong to dismiss the four propositions as being utterly without substance...

...We acknowledge, and even emphasize, that we indeed made such a statement...

...In addition, they believe that it is unwise of Israel not to make some show of supporting the beliefs and fears of their country's Western friends, especially the United States...

...Said Hammami, the PLO's representative in London...

...Yigal Allon, referring to the broadcast, adduced it as evidence that the Arab states are still bent on the "destruction" of Israel, that--to paraphrase him--the "less realistic, more aggressive elements" are dominant...

...So prevalent is this idea that Western writers often seem to believe that murderous gangs like Black September are separate from the organization led by Yasir Ararat...

...That was the method Chamberlain used in domestic discussions of Hitler...

...The extraordinary thing is that even those Western statesmen and commentators most anxious to argue the possibilities of a reasonable peace based on concessions from Israel can produce no statement of significance from senior Arab politicians to weigh against the kind of quotation I have given...

...In such circumstances, however, it seems at least unwise to ignore the reiterated statements and actions of Arab politicians...

...A little earlier Mr...

...Carter and--at least up to the time of the Cairo food riots--the promiscuous granting of benevolent sounding interviews to Western politicians and newsmen by President Sadat, it is clear that a new Middle East peace season is upon us...

...There is prospect of neither continuity nor stability in the Sadat government...

...He now has ample opportunity to add some substance to his statements...

...Hammami observed, "I do not see any difference between killing a boy of six and a soldier of twenty...

...The Soviet Union avidly covets Yugoslavia's Adriatic harbors and ready access to the Mediterranean...

...Indeed, though President Sadat's accusation that the recent food riots were incited by Communists may not have been true, it is certainly the case that the rioters expressed extreme dissatisfaction with the elements of Western capitalism that the President has, albeit inefficiently and partially, introduced into Egypt...

...influence--that though in July 1972 President Sadat expelled from Egypt somewhere between thirty and forty thousand Soviet advisers, on the grounds that the USSR had "refused his requests for more sophisticated weapons with which to attack Israel," in October 1973 Russia was replacing Arab arsenals as quickly as the Israelis captured or destroyed them...

...Of course, Patrick Cosgrave, polit~al columnist for the London Spectator, contributed an essay on the British Conservative Party to R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr...

...Kissinger has persisted for so long that its life expectancy is greater than that of the euphoria induced in Washington and Jerusalem in July 1972...