Go West, Old Man
BARNES, FRED
Go West, Old Man by Fred Barnes Sacramento When Senate majority leader Bob Dole flew to San Diego in March, Republican congressman Chris Cox rode along and jumped at the chance to pitch Dole on...
...The state isn't locked up for the president...
...That would detract from the Clinton drive in other states...
...By Labor Day, Bush concluded the state was a lost cause...
...The other part of the strategy is a full-throated embrace of Wilson's twin issues, immigration and quotas...
...Dole can win the state by copying Wilson's successful reelection campaign in 1994, Pringle said...
...If Clinton's prospects were any better, I'd be afraid I was on drugs," says Bill Carrick, a senior adviser to the Clinton-Gore campaign...
...For now, Wilson is in charge...
...He spent two days touring California just before the March presidential primary, but even Dole advisers soured on that trip...
...Forget Clinton's big lead (20 points in public polls, 17 points in private GOP surveys), Cox said...
...Clinton has hardly taken the state for granted...
...Still, it would be an enormous gamble for Dole to emphasize California...
...That goes for a lot...
...Dole is already in sync with the initiative, having cosponsored a bill to get rid of racial and gender preferences in the federal government...
...That would make Dole a player, though not automatically a threat to Clinton...
...Dole, she said, "is 100 percent committed to California...
...The two top California Republicans, Wilson and attorney general Dan Lungren, have bickered over managing the Dole effort...
...He's made 23 trips to California since he became president...
...It's what one Dole adviser calls the "Central Valley strategy...
...He buttonholed Dole and made exactly the same case for a full-blown Dole effort in California...
...To make his presence felt, Dole needs to campaign here two or three separate times before the GOP convention in San Diego in August, then at least weekly in the fall...
...Dole must also bring order to his operation here...
...If Dole spends plenty of time in the state and stresses two issues, illegal immigration and affirmative action, he can win California, the one state crucial to Clinton's reelection...
...He'll show up time after time even if Dole doesn't...
...It was a 'Pete Wilson's greatest hits' tour," sneers Carrick...
...And Cox told Dole it will become even hotter should Clinton veto the new immigration bill...
...Once the plane reached San Diego, California governor Pete Wilson joined the entourage...
...If the final version allows states to bar illegal immigrants from public education, the president is pledged to kill it...
...California Republicans have a surprising ally in Washington, House speaker Newt Gingrich...
...Brulte says the campaign would have to earmark $10 million for TV spots...
...Yeah, yeah, yeah, Dole said...
...For one thing, that will help Republicans avert losses in congressional races and leave the House in GOP hands (and Gingrich as speaker...
...He probably needs to invest more time here than any other state because Bush's write-off of the state is so firmly planted in our mind," says assemblyman Jim Brulte, the former GOP leader in the statehouse...
...Dole has come rarely, and then usually for fund-raisers...
...The test of his effectiveness is how many times he can persuade Dole to come to California...
...With Wilson spending full-time as a candidate in California, masterminding a disciplined, relentless campaign, he could swing the state toward Dole...
...The state's 54 electoral votes are 20 percent of the 270 required to win the presidency...
...He was frustrated there was talk he would abandon California," Pringle says...
...The formula recommended to Dole for winning California is essentially the Wilson model...
...That would be a major commitment of time in a state where he starts far behind...
...If that wasn't enough, Dole got another earful in April when California Assembly speaker Curt Pringle dropped by his office in Washington...
...Clinton has a natural advantage...
...There's not much difference between a wheat grower in Kansas and a grape grower in Fresno...
...The result was terror in California GOP ranks...
...There's a way for Dole to touch off panic in the Clinton campaign in California: choose Wilson or Lungren as his running mate...
...Pete Wilson knows how to win a California race," says Pringle...
...He told a GOP delegation from Sacramento he believes California should be a top priority for Dole...
...He'd heard that line of argument a few times...
...Choreographed by Wilson's political team, it included a trip to the Mexican border in San Diego and a visit to the death chamber at San Quentin prison...
...And Dole would be free to focus on Michigan and Ohio...
...If Dole does this, "he could be a very good candidate for California," argues Steve Merksamer, a Sacramento lobbyist and senior adviser to the Dole campaign...
...And with Clinton running strongly and lifting the entire Democratic ticket, the Republican drive to capture the state legislature fell short, House gains didn't materialize, and the GOP lost both Senate races...
...Affirmative action may be more salient, however, since a referendum banning it in state government-the California Civil Rights Initiative-is on the ballot this fall and is expected to pass...
...Carrick insists reruns don't work in elections, but Dole may try anyway...
...On the surface," admits Brulte, "Bill Clinton appears to be a better fit for California than Bob Dole...
...Go West, Old Man by Fred Barnes Sacramento When Senate majority leader Bob Dole flew to San Diego in March, Republican congressman Chris Cox rode along and jumped at the chance to pitch Dole on the need to campaign aggressively in California against President Clinton this fall...
...By September, Wilson may have gained a bit in popularity, but that's not the point...
...His campaign would concentrate on the farm belt from Sacramento to the inland empire east of L.A., the home of the state's swing voters...
...The president's allies here have no reason to take Dole seriously at this stage-and they don't...
...Lungren is more popular, but Wilson makes more sense...
...Dole would forget about Los Angeles and San Francisco, both Democratic strongholds, and count on Republican strength in San Diego and Orange County...
...As Pringle left, Jill Hanson, political director of the Dole campaign, assured him this won't happen...
...Now, Republicans are desperate for Dole to show he won't cut and run...
...Another $10 million would have to be spent by the Republican National Committee for get-out-the-vote and other efforts...
...Gingrich said he won't abandon California...
...Even if Clinton captures California, forcing him to spend time and money in the state is important...
...And since Clinton must take California, given Dole's likely strength elsewhere, denying him the state means Dole wins the election...
...California Republicans subscribe to the adage of Bush strategist Lee Atwater, who died in 1990: "If they need it, I want it...
...Maybe so, but Republicans in California are still apprehensive that Dole may do what President Bush did in 1992...
...The political logic behind a major Dole push in California is simple: California is big and Clinton needs it...
...That was no accident...
...He stopped spending money and campaigning in California...
...Immigration," says Pringle, "is the hottest populist issue in the state...
...Younger, more vigorous, and more optimistic-sounding than Dole, he seems more comfortable in California...
Vol. 1 • May 1996 • No. 35
