Advantage: Bill Clinton
BARNES, FRED
Advantage: Bill Clinton by Fred Barnes Republicans have put President Clinton in a politically enviable position. He's now poised to say something like this in his State of the Union address on...
...At worst, they'll look silly or irrelevant...
...If Hillary's troubles are damaging the Clinton presidency, then Clinton will need the support of as many Democrats on Capitol Hill as possible...
...Campbell could explain that he quit the Democratic party and became a Republican last year precisely because of the politics and practices that Clinton and congressional Democrats continue to pursue...
...whether Washington will continue to tax more, spend more, regulate more and control more...
...John Engler of Michigan thinks Republicans should pass their revised balanced budget and send it to Clinton the day before the speech...
...The one tool Republicans have is the Hillary Rodham Clinton issue, but it's a two-edged sword...
...Clinton and congressional Democrats were gleeful...
...This reinforces the myth that Clinton is being flexible on the sticky issues-Medicare, Medicaid, taxes- though he isn't...
...But the opposite is just as plausible...
...By announcing the talks were off, it would put pressure on the president to reopen them by making a new offer, closer to the Republican budget...
...We have tested this theme across the country, and it is the only message we know of that beats the current Clinton effort...
...If fought on the bigger vision, we win," Luntz says...
...I'm worried about how we're going to rebut it," says Senate Whip Trent Lott...
...Luntz's script calls for the keynoter of the summit to declare: "This is a historic debate about the role and scope of Washington...
...At best, Republicans will take the edge off Clinton's speech...
...The reason is there may not be one, given the way they have inadvertently set the stage for Clinton's speech...
...He won't get them by lurching toward Gingrich and Dole in the budget talks...
...But there's agreement among GOP leaders that these things aren't enough...
...It will take a major event like that to "compete with Clinton," says Lott...
...The consensus among Republicans is that it will take external pressure-a large dip by financial markets or a Clinton tumble in opinion polls-for the White House to move...
...Well, he wasn't receptive, but he asked Republicans to announce the talks are only in short recess...
...I've met all the Republicans' demands...
...The summit scheme was first proposed by GOP pollster Frank Luntz...
...House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole changed their tactics in the budget battle with the White House at an opportune moment for Clinton...
...The GOP plan was to end the talks flatly if Clinton wasn't receptive to their latest budget proposal, which was a big step closer to the White House position...
...They did...
...A few small things, such as having the House and Senate vote again on a Balanced Budget Amendment just before the president's speech, have been recommended...
...Congressional leaders and I have agreed already to far more than enough reductions in government spending to balance the budget within seven years," insisted Clinton...
...The press was finally figuring out that the president, having failed to present a seven-year balanced budget certified by the CBO, wasn't bargaining in good faith...
...That wasn't all...
...The president wins that argument, if only because he's willing to distort the Republican position on Medicare, Medicaid, and taxes...
...Basically the issue is now the size of the tax cut and who gets it...
...In fact, Clinton has already said roughly this, both when the budget talks collapsed on January 9 and at his press conference on January 11...
...The best idea is for a Republican summit of governors, local officials, and members of Congress a day or two before Clinton's speech...
...They need to broaden the issue beyond a squabble over whose budget is better, theirs or Clinton's...
...Or Dole, whose turn it is to choose the Republican who responds on TV to Clinton, could pick Sen...
...He's now poised to say something like this in his State of the Union address on January 23: "I've produced a balanced budget, using the conservative assumptions of the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office...
...He just hasn't said it to a national TV audience during prime time...
...The event would be outside Washington and, if Lott has his way, before a live audience and with full TV coverage...
...The debate is no longer one about balancing the budget," said Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, happy that issue has been neutralized...
...Republicans threw him a lifeline: If Clinton merely offered a seven-year budget-he didn't have to agree to a final deal-they'd call off the partial government shutdown...
...That is largely out of Republican hands...
...or whether we will begin to reduce the size, scope and power of Washington...
...Now he will, and Republicans are hard pressed to come up with a strong response...
...Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado...
...Engler, the governor most involved in the budget talks, has a slightly different version of how to frame the debate, with Clinton representing the status quo, Republicans change and reform...
...So what do Republicans do about the State of the Union, given the new situation...
...Engler, for one, believes the president might be more eager for a deal if the Hillary scandal worsens...
...But they are not likely to put any pressure on Clinton to revise his budget...
...He urged several House and Senate Republicans to organize the summit around "the broader message" that "Washington is our enemy" and Clinton is protecting it from change and reform...
...And poll numbers were beginning to turn against Clinton...
...But they're so rigid they're willing to pass up this historic opportunity to balance the budget if we don't make dangerous cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, education, and the environment, and approve an enormous tax cut...
Vol. 1 • January 1996 • No. 18
