Turnout Is Destiny
BARNES, FRED
Turnout Is Destiny Karl Rove's new assignment is to get the faithful to the polls. by FRED BARNES NOW THAT HE'S BACK in the elections business, Karl Rove has a huge task on his hands: assuring...
...There's a lot Rove can do now that he's freed from the administrative duties that went with his old job as deputy chief of staff...
...By itself, a 66 percent rating means that turnout by Republicans is likely to be low...
...with the 2006 midterm election six months away, the Republican base is uninspired...
...It's not everything...
...So Rove, along with Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman, has the job of shaping issues that will make Republicans angry or inspired, or both...
...First, Rove's magic won't affect the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency and causing Republicans to be disheartened: Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD and author of Rebel-in-Chief (Crown Forum...
...And he has closer ties to the new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, than he did to Bolten's predecessor, Andy card...
...This is a disastrous number for Republicans...
...Iraq and rising gas prices...
...At the moment, Republicans are in a funk...
...There's one big problem—two, actually...
...By definition there's less energy," says the adviser, in nonpresidential years—and less infrastructure for a national campaign...
...Since early 2005, his presidency has been beset not only by Iraq and gas prices but by other outside events, including Hurricane Katrina and the Dubai ports deal...
...Now, a Republican official says, "it would help to have an outside situation that we could take advantage of...
...In 1990, 27.4 million Americans voted for Republican House candidates, and the party lost 8 seats...
...Low job approval can have a double whammy effect...
...But what about Iraq and gas prices...
...The second effect is to cause further Republican disenchantment...
...A permanent, elected government in Iraq might be one, especially if it leads to fewer bombings and further reductions in American casualties by this summer...
...For Bush and Republicans, turnout is destiny...
...So at the top of his list is passage of a federal budget with at least minimal restraints on spending...
...It's the only thing...
...Before the Easter recess, the House failed to pass one...
...More recently, the turnout factor has been the single greatest influence on midterm elections...
...He's back to his first-term job as the chief political strategist for Bush and the Republican party...
...The old football saying about winning applies to turnout in 2006...
...A political adviser who works closely with Rove has developed a list of issues that Republicans should concentrate on to spur turnout...
...It's when Republicans are either inspired or angry that they show up in large numbers and win elections...
...The sweeping Republican defeat following watergate in 1974 was only indirectly related to the scandal...
...It would help...
...It matters enormously...
...But the second problem—President Bush's sagging job approval among Republicans—is one that Rove can address by emphasizing policies that appeal to Republicans and by creating strong fears of a Democratic takeover...
...He's in a position to invigorate Bush's message and rally Republicans...
...But in 2002 it soared to 37 million, and Republicans won 8 House seats...
...In 2002 and 2004, when Republicans won House seats, Bush's approval among Republicans was 20 or more points higher...
...In 1994, however, the Republican turnout jumped to 36.3 million, and the party captured 52 House seats...
...of course, it wasn't as bad as the overall Bush rating of 33 percent, which included Democrats and independents...
...In the Fox News poll in mid-April, only 66 percent of Republicans said they looked favorably on the Bush presidency...
...Let's be clear about turnout...
...The Democratic landslide was directly attributable to the diminished Republican turnout that resulted from watergate-induced dejection among Republicans...
...A break in gas prices is unlikely, but stranger things have happened...
...Since spending curbs are important to conservatives, they'd better pass a budget soon...
...If they do all this, Bush's support among Republicans should rise and so should his overall approval rating...
...The "key" in these years, the adviser continues, is to make "your base as inspired as possible...
...They need a positive agenda to stir the Republican base in general and conservatives in particular...
...It dipped in 1998 to 32 million, prompting a loss of 5 seats...
...Here, Bush needs help from outside events...
...Republicans can't survive by relying on incumbency, money, and attacks on Democrats...
...They aren't a big secret...
...And their dejected mood may presage a low turnout in the midterm election on November 7. Should a large number of Republican voters sit this one out, Republicans could lose control of one or both houses of congress...
...And Democrats may foolishly contribute by making themselves more vulnerable than ever to attacks of the type that Rove is adept at organizing...
...This, in turn, leads to lower turnout...
...Low poll numbers like 33 percent approval are bound to prompt some Republicans to feel they must separate themselves from Bush and join in criticizing him and Republicans in congress...
...Presidential elections unleash "incredible energy," a senior Bush adviser says, and that generates volunteers, donors, a campaign infrastructure, and a flood of voters to the polls...
...In presidential election years, jacking up turnout is relatively doable, as the Bush campaign showed in 2004...
...And they should push to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and propose serious health care legislation...
...It's a vicious political cycle, but it's not the end of the world for Republicans...
...Republicans also need to stress the "culture of life" by noisily opposing abortion, cloning, and expanded federal subsidies for embryonic stem cell research...
...by FRED BARNES NOW THAT HE'S BACK in the elections business, Karl Rove has a huge task on his hands: assuring strong Republican voter turnout...
Vol. 11 • May 2006 • No. 31
