Quiet Election in Israel

...Some thoughtful independent observers wonder whether there isn't more truth in the assertion than is usual for election rhetoric...

...General Confederation of Labor [Histadrut] officials gleefully point out that some of the most militant unions are headed by functionaries known to belong to Likud...

...An increasing percentage of salaried Israelis, unable to make ends meet, do the grocery shopping the last week of the month on the strength of their bank overdrafts...

...In June the tally was 52 for the Alignment and 40 for Likud...

...Thus about two-thirds of the income tax receipts now come from wage earners, and only about one-third from businesses and the self-employed—to Likud's embarrassment...

...Finally, Finance Minister Aridor's open pocketbook the last time out not only created a sense of material well-being among the masses (while depleting the Treasury of dollar reserves...

...A brief flurry developed recently when Likud, against the advice of its public relations consultants, introduced the slogan "We are the national camp" —implying that it is the party of true patriots...

...The public at large, meanwhile, took scant notice either of the ads featuring the slogan or of the mutual charges and countercharges...

...Even in the event of a last-minute upsurge, Alignment politicians assert hopefully, Likud isunlikelytoclosesuch a gap...

...But Labor's quiet optimism, perhaps bordering on overoptimism, is based on three factors: the economic situation, the public opinion polls, and the favorable balance in overall pros and cons affecting the two groups...

...yet lack the charisma needed to arouse the voters' enthusiasm...

...The public opinion polls have been a source of Labor's optimism because of their consistency in predicting an impressive Alignment victory in the 120-seat Knesset...

...They are convinced that despite a "fair campaign code" signed by the two big opponents, in the final dash f or votes Likud will not play by the agreed rules...

...They therefore began to withdraw the slogan— but, typically, Labor kicked up a fuss about the fairness code being violated...

...Traditionally, about half the income tax collected here was withheld from wage earners at the source, whiletheoth-er half came from businesses and the self-employed...

...During the current contest Washington has remained neutral —although it may secretly prefer a Labor victory in the(not very realistic) hope that this will heighten the chances of talks with Jordan over the West Bank...

...Former Prime Minister Menachem Begin, always a top attraction, is too ill to be a participant, and his controversial former Defense Minister, Ariel Sharon, is being kept at arm's length by Likud, presumably because his bullish hawkishness (or hawkish bullishness) is seen as more of a liability than an asset...

...Then, in the closing stages of the campaign, Likud's hard-hitting tactics and the largesse of free spending former Finance Minister Yoram Aridor managed to turn the race around: Likud won 48 seats, the Alignment 47, and Menachem Begin had little difficulty reconstituting his old coalition...

...The extent of the worker unrest undercuts Finance Minister Yigal Cohen-Orgad's contention that the strikes are Alignment-induced for political purposes...

...And even the most simple-minded voter knows that the bill will be presented to him right after the elections, no matter who wins at the polls...

...The list includes teachers, postal workers, electric corporation workers, lawyers in public service, Foreign Ministry employees, journalists of the state radio and television, plus the 150,000-strong Clerks Union of the national and local authorities...

...Its spokesmen maintain that a lot of things are working in its favor besides the absence of Begin from Likud' s ranks and the skyrocketing inflation...

...In 1981, they note, the country was basking in the warm glow of the recently signed peace with Egypt, now cooled considerably, and President Anwar Sadat obliged Begin with a much publicized summit a few weeks before the balloting...

...The candidates seem to be standing still instead of running, and everyone appears to be searching desperately for the Big Issue that will bring matters to life...

...Labor somehow hesitates to make it the war in Lebanon...

...What is worse, inflation has begun to affect everyone, not merely pensioners and low-income groups...

...The ultimate margin, though, is of critical importance...

...The country is in the grip of a spiral-ing inflation that by the end of May was running at an annual rate of 400 (!) per cent...

...Their conspicuous consumption of foreign travel, fancy housing and electronic gadgetry also gave them the feeling that they were truly entering the middle classes...

...Galloping inflation has completely upset the pattern...

...The leadership soon realized, though, that among middle-aged and older voters the term "national camp" is still synonymous with the Revisionist movement and the Herut Party (the chief components of Likud) when they were the perennial outsiders...

...A number of Alignment stalwarts have openly criticized their party's low-profile strategy...

...Of late, it has been plagued by the resignations of top officials who have openly charged that the Cabinet has no policies and no priorities...

...Since it is clear that whoever wins will have to take very drastic steps to cut consumption and probably also freeze the enormous (in nominal value at least) accumulated savings, no party is expected to trumpet its economic plans from the rooftops before the elections...

...One direct consequence has been a growing wave of strikes...

...Be that as it may, the seeming indecisiveness hurts the ins more than the outs...

...Given the existing punitively high interest rates, this in itself is a most dispiriting experience...

...The government is spending freely again, but the billions of freshly printed pounds buy less and less, thanks to the runaway inflation...

...Comparing its position today with that of 1981, Labor believes this can be achieved...

...In fact, the wage earners' bitterness has been exacerbated by the widely publicized near-collapse of tax collection in the private business sector...

...At last count, 15 unions representing about 250,000 employees were either on strike or had declared a work dispute, the formal step that must be taken two weeks before actual strike action...

...Since no party has ever attained a Knesset majority, and none is expected after July 23, a coalition will once more be necessary...

...In 1981, too, the government still showed a semblance of smooth operation...

...Although Israelis have learned to live with a two-digit or even low three-digit inflation, the present rate makes everybody feel the government has simply lost control...

...His latest book, written with Dan Bavly, is Fire in Beirut: Israel's War in Lebanon with the PLO...

...Of course, only a few months before the 1981 elections the polls gave Labor an unprecedented majority of 61 seats, against some 35 for the Likud...

...It was pretty obvious as well that the United States favored Likud— being more confident about the agreed return of the last portion of Sinai to Egypt with Begin in office, rather than in opposition...

...Labor's leaders respond that the party is now at the peak of its popularity, with front-page headlines providing better propaganda than the best prepared ads could...

...More important, they see the present voter apathy as working in Labor's favor: During the last stages of the 1977 and 1981 campaigns most of the floating vote drifted to Likud, suggesting that a relatively low turnout would benefit the Alignment and stirring up too much excitement could be counterproductive...

...Nonetheless, this has so far been one of the dullest campaigns anybody can remember...

...The absence of strong personalities may be a major reason for the lackluster campaign...

...Prime Minister Yitzchak Shamir and Defense Minister Moshe Arens are solid, even likable fellows, Eliahu Salpeter, a regular NL contributor, is a correspondent for the Israeli daily Ha'aretz...

...For complex new legislation that adjusts figures to real values in order to keep up the real taxable income base—aside from defying the comprehension of the tax authorities—has had the opposite effect: Most big companies have shown losses in real terms this year, relieving them of the need to pay anything...

...The same is true of Shimon Peres, who again heads the Alignment ticket...

...Under present political circumstances, Likud probably could hustle up somewhat more allies than the Alignment, which therefore needs a better head start...

...In March-April some pollsters gave the Alignment 55 seats, others saw them taking 52 seats, while Likud was pegged at from 37 to 41...

...This time, the difference between the two parties appears to be holding fairly firm, with small fluctuations on both sides...

...A PLUS FOR LABOR Quiet Election in Israel BY ELIAHU SALTPETER Tel Aviv Both the ruling Likud bloc and the opposition Labor Alignment claim that Israel is at a crossroads, that the outcome of the July 23 Parliamentary contest will determine the country's fate for many years to come...