A Political Truce in Italy
SENIGALLIA, SILVIO F.
WHY FORLANI WAS CHOSEN A Political Truce in Xtcily by silvi° R senigalua rome The quick appointment and approval last month of Italy's new Prime Minister, Christian Democrat (DC) Arnaldo...
...now only its cooperation in Parliament can allow the Christian Democrats to form a viable government in the face of Communist opposition...
...Since it is obviously impossible for the PCI to gain entry into a ruling coalition, the party is back where it was before Ber-linguer's plea for a marriage of convenience with Christian Democrats...
...And Forlani himself has always been a member of the dominant moderate bloc within the DC...
...WHY FORLANI WAS CHOSEN A Political Truce in Xtcily by silvi° R senigalua rome The quick appointment and approval last month of Italy's new Prime Minister, Christian Democrat (DC) Arnaldo Forlani, was a source of amazement to most observers here...
...And, as a matter of fact, the Socialists, Social Democrats and Republicans together have as many portfolios in Forlani's Cabinet as do the Christian Democrats...
...Its leaders all too often have let partisan considerations take precedence over a responsible statesmanlike approach...
...Their instrumental role in ousting Cossiga gave them grounds to brag that without them no government could function...
...A complex explanation postulating Machiavellian schemes on the part of Italian political leaders would be misleading...
...Thus what probably accounted for Forlani's relatively smooth ascent to the Prime Ministership was a concern about the effect of continuing the long period of intense political bitterness that has in many respects come close to paralyzing this country...
...Hence it was hardly a selfless decision on the part of the DC leaders to unanimously back the candidacy of their President, the number two man in the party hierarchy...
...The Christian Democrats suddenly decided that party unity was imperative and the Socialists promised the new Prime Minister full and loyal cooperation...
...Silvio F. Senigallia reports regularly/or The New Leader from Rome...
...Most of them are simply harassed politicians trying to cope with thorny national problems while simultaneously striving to preserve their positions of preeminence...
...It will also affect the continuation of PCI's march on the "third road" —halfway between social democracy, which the party has rejected, and the old maximalism, which it has not yet definitely abandoned...
...Secondly, Forlani had been the one Christian Democrat ,to suggest that a Socialist (i.e., Craxi) be named Prime Minister after the 1979 elections...
...In short, the real question that the PCI must confront now is its immediate objective...
...The Socialists' reasons for backing Forlani are less complex...
...Craxi intends to parlay the support he gives the majority party in the name of "governability" into more power...
...The decision was made easier by For-lani's pleasant personality and comparative lack of ambition...
...The new government coalition also is identical to the old, except for the addition of the Social Democrats (PSDI), a lackluster, mildly Left-of-cen-ter party that attracted only 4 per cent of the vote in the last national election...
...Whatever the case, it is doubtful that a government role is the present aim of the Communists, even though their official slogan remains: "Either in the government or at the opposition, but no intermediate solution...
...Democrazia Cristiana, the majority party around which all the Italian postwar governments have been formed, is a confederation of warring factions...
...The ensuing government crisis had seemed nothing short of insoluble...
...It is a measure of PCI disarray that this approach would require close contacts with the Socialists, and its supporters are the ones who are most openly and severely critical of Craxi's collaboration with the DC...
...There is a strong trend within the PCI for forging an alliance between the working class and the "productive sectors" of the middle class, in the hope of turning the resulting bloc into a convincing alternative to Christian Democratic supremacy...
...They are not that tricky or far-sighted...
...Given the current economic and social problems besetting the nation, he contends, a meaningful anti-government coalition must include women, the elderly, uprooted urban residents, and the unemployed...
...The question is now how long this eraof good feelings will last...
...Caesar-like, however, Forlani came, saw and conquered...
...TheChris-tian Democrats and Socialists are still fighting over the issues of abortion and Church intervention in national affairs, and the Communists are pressing a scandal involving fuel-tax evasion that could reach high levels with the Christian Democrats...
...Craxi has always been opposed to what Communist Party chief Enrico Berlinguer refers to as a "historic compromise"—that is, a modus vivendi between the DC and the PCI leading to Communist participation in the government—for he is understandably afraid that a pact between the big two would greatly curtail the Socialists' pivotal role in forming coalitions...
...Communist leaders reportedly felt cheated by Cossiga...
...In fact, with the September trade deficit running at $2.67 billion and the annual inflation rate at 18.2 per cent, elections were out of the question...
...He dropped Cossiga because it had become clear that his days were numbered...
...The immediate seating of the Forlani government proved them wrong as, indeed, they have been proved wrong whenever the Christian Democrats and Socialists were really determined to make a coalition work...
...Even the Communists, whose tacit backing will not be needed by Forlani, have pledged themselves to a "different opposition" in a somewhat conciliatory statement...
...Some observers believe the Communists' feud with Cossiga was more of a personal vendetta than part of a genuine drive for securing a place in the government...
...How the debate now going on in Communist ranks is resolved will largely determine the PCI's opposition posture...
...His hapless predecessor, Francesco Cossiga, had been driven from office by merciless Communist (PCI) opposition, ambiguous support from his Socialist (PSI) allies and incessant squabbling among his fellow Christian Democrats...
...Under the stewardship of Bettino Craxi, a political buccaneer who controls two-thirds of the votes in the PSI's policy making Central Committee, the party's constant search for additional power has been unhindered by ideological niceties...
...Actually, nobody seriously thought the "historic compromise" feasible after the 1979 elections saw the Communists' share of the national vote drop from 34 to 30 per cent...
...By last month, though, they became keenly aware of the risks arising from a protracted government crisis...
...Prime Minister Forlani, of course, would not be unhappy if the Communists were a long time in deciding upon their direction...
...As DC Secretary in the '70s and Foreign Minister in the 1976-79 cabinets headed by Giulio Andreotti, he has always been an unaggressive and, occasionally, reluctant candidate, ready to step aside when required by party politics or on a matter of principle...
...With the virtual shelving of the compromise proposal, PSI's 10 per cent of the vote has acquired greater importance...
...These traits no doubt contributed to the party's prompt acquiescence to his elevation...
...While Craxi is flexing his muscles and the Socialists—with the exception of the PSI Left-wing intellectuals, who feel betrayed—are acting important, the Communists are having trouble defining their "different opposition...
...This is true not only of traditional democratic party heads, but of the Communist leaders as well, for they no longer enjoy the monolithic support of their rank and file...
...Finally, the very recent PSI-PSDI united action pact would give him additional strength in the new coalition government...
...Yet, the leading ministers in Forlani's Cabinet are the same men who served with Cossiga...
...Another endless tug-of-war would have increased the already widespread distrust of Italy's democratic institutions...
...A more direct fear was that the early dissolution of Parliament for the fourth time in a row would anger the electorate to a dangerous degree, especially since Italy's economic conditions have been steadily deteriorating...
...Most surprising of all, everybody applaud ad...
...As for the PSI secretary's ready acceptance of Forlani, it was probably motivated first of all by the knowledge that the disgruntled public strongly favored continued Socialist participation in a coalition to prevent a lengthy government crisis...
...In the past two years he has been zestily hitting Right and Left without showing any preference between Communists and Christian Democrats...
...Rather, the question is why the major parties decided that the time had come for a brief truce in the larger sense, and that Forlani was as competent as anyone to be found in the DC top echelon...
...Secretary Berlinguer—who seems to have lost some of his old charisma, although he is still unchallenged as the leader of the party—maintains that the proposed working class-middle class alliance would be neither solid nor massive enough to prevail...
Vol. 63 • November 1980 • No. 21
