Maneuvers in the Red Sea

GAILLARD, WILLIAM J. & HAMMOND, MARGO

THE NEW REPUBLIC OF DJIBOUTI AND Maneuvers in the Red Sea by william j. gaillard and margo hammond Rome The Red Sea, that great chasm between two continents, has traditionally been the...

...Fidel Castro urged the addition of South Yemen after a visit to all three countries last March...
...And while most experts agree that President Mohammed Syad Barre's Army is the best trained and equipped in the area, it might not remain so for long without Soviet military weapons and advisers...
...The Soviet Union is already strongly implanted in the region and would like to consolidate its position by contributing to the reconciliation of a number of strategic, mutually hostile states—particularly Ethiopia and Somalia, both Soviet allies...
...These pivotal and changing countries are not merely coveted by Saudi Arabia...
...Besides the Republic, such a union would include Djibouti, Ethiopia's Ogaden and the northeastern province of Kenya...
...they will all play a vital role in any final Red Sea alignment...
...The United States and its industrialized allies would like to maintain the status quo—thus assuring the security of oil and military transport through the Suez Canal and in the Indian Ocean (used by supertankers too large for the Canal...
...Given the superpower rivalry in this critical area, the political maneuvers of oil-rich Saudi Arabia, and the continuing civil war in Ethiopia, the French evacuation could drastically upset a delicate diplomatic equilibrium...
...Proposals to that effect are certainly not lacking...
...Somalian President Syad Barre recently suggested to Addis Ababa that the two countries form a confederation...
...His wife, Margo Hammond, writes on Mediterranean affairs for the Tokyo daily Yomiuri Shimbun...
...The Cuban proposal has the advantage of satisfying the strategic interests of the Soviet Union and the United States: The USSR could strengthen its bases in the southern Red Sea area, while the U.S...
...The second country singled out for priority treatment by the Saudis, the Republic of Somalia, would seem to be in a far stronger position than its Ethiopian neighbor and rival...
...The U.S...
...The country's turbulent political atmosphere was reflected in the capital itself last February 3, in the violent coup that brought Lieutenant Colonels Mengistu Haile Mariam and Atnafu Abate to power (see "Troubled Ethiopia," NL, February 28...
...i Fought over by the Romans, Arabs, I Turks, Spaniards, Egyptians, Ital-I ians, British, and French, the 1,450...
...For one thing, it is religiously and linguistically unified...
...Neither Moscow nor Washington would relish a Red Sea power struggle...
...William J. Gaillard teaches at John Cabot International College in Rome...
...This might cause some serious problems for the rebels: Not only does al-Nimeiry have his own troubles, but being supported exclusively by conservative Arab regimes could cost them the aura and useful status of a "liberation movement...
...and France each controls several military bases along the Indian Ocean route, yet to protect Red Sea as well, the Western powers need to be sure at least that the Strait of Hormuz (between Iran and the United Arab Emirates) and the Strait of Bab el-Mendab are in friendly hands...
...The Saudis have made overtures toward a wide range of conservative and Communist Arab countries, with special emphasis on Ethiopia, Somalia and South Yemen...
...Yet given the unpredictable nature of the situation, the superpowers have little choice but to shore up their positions as the ma-neuverings around Djibouti continue...
...could continue to control the Strait of Hormuz through its Iranian allies and maintain its favorable position in the northern Red Sea...
...Since 1964, guerrilla organizations have conducted a patient struggle, progressively compelling the Ethiopian Army to abandon the Eritrean countryside and seek refuge in the large cities...
...South Yemen's 1.7 million inhabitants occupy the southwestern tip of the Arabian Peninsula and are led by a Marxist intellectual, Salem Robaya...
...In large part because of the growing Iranian presence in South Yemen's neighbor, the Sultanate of Oman, Saudi Arabia has over the last several years grown increasingly friendly toward the Aden government, and, in March 1976, granted it formal recognition...
...In recent years, France's military presence in the Territory of Afars and Issas has kept the Red Sea open to navigation, even when the Suez Canal was not...
...In Ethiopia, the Saudis have been helping the Moslem rebels of Eritrea...
...Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has heavily involved itself in the area in pursuit of three main objectives: enhancing its image as the uncontested leader of the Arab world, transforming the Red Sea into an Arab-controlled (and decidedly anti-Israeli) lake, and checking the spreading influence of Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Sultanate of Oman...
...With Bab el-Mandeb likely to soon become a "hot" area, the Mukalla pipeline represents the best guarantee to the Saudis that their oil can continue to safely flow to the West...
...the Saudis hope to move Somalia out of the Soviet zone of influence (as they have done with Egypt and, to a certain extent, Syria...
...Cooperation among the Moslem states would also give added prestige to the Saudis—who might accept a Soviet presence in exchange for a strong front against encroaching Iranian power and a guarantee that their oil would keep flowing...
...mile long seaway remains the I quickest water route from Europe to the East—and a potential trouble spot...
...They have done so, observers believe, to win over their Left-wing opposition and to persuade the Soviets to give Ethiopia the assistance it needs to maintain its various military maneuvers...
...Riyadh, stressing the Arabic and Islamic identity of the Somalis, has encouraged these territorial claims in word and deed...
...Interestingly, when the name of the game is oil, human rights questions—and they are plentiful in Iran—do not appear to present much of an obstacle to U.S...
...What give the Red Sea contemporary importance, however, is its east bank: the Arabian Peninsula, where 60 per cent of the world's oil reserves are located...
...foreign policy...
...The success of President Hassan Gouled's African Popular League for Independence, a party enjoying the support of both groups, has further raised hopes that a compromise between Ethiopia and Somalia might be reached...
...Where Somalia runs into difficulty is with its dream—cultivated since independence from Britain and Italy in 1960—of gathering under one flag the whole Somali population...
...Confederation might be the only peaceful solutions to the problems of the Red Sea region...
...The Republic of Djibouti is 8,500 square miles of moonlike desert, without any mineral or agricultural resources...
...THE NEW REPUBLIC OF DJIBOUTI AND Maneuvers in the Red Sea by william j. gaillard and margo hammond Rome The Red Sea, that great chasm between two continents, has traditionally been the focal point of warring interests...
...The prospects for a union of some sort were heightened by the Red Sea security conference held last March in Saudi-dominated North Yemen, and attended by the Sudan, Somalia and South Yemen...
...Either scheme would, of course, have to include an amenable resolution to the Djibouti and Eritrean problems...
...In exchange, it seems, the Soviets now have docking facilities in the port of Massawa...
...Since Addis Ababa has shifted its allegiance away from Washington (which provided most of its aid before the military overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie in September 1974) and toward Moscow, the Eritrean guerrillas have been forced to switch theirs from pro-Soviet South Yemen to the Saudi- and Kuwait-backed Sudan of General Gaafer al-Nimeiry...
...for another, its economy, bolstered by considerable Soviet aid, plus Cuban and Swedish assistance in developing a fishing industry, has been prospering...
...In this sense, the Saudi objective of an Arab, anti-Israeli lake would be realized...
...At that time, too, the two countries concluded an agreement for the eventual construction of a pipe that would transport Saudi oil through the desert of Rub al Khali to the South Yemeni port of Mukalla on the Indian Ocean...
...Indeed, the independence of the Territory of Afars and Issas creates an entirely new state of affairs in the region...
...Still, neither Middle Eastern nor African groupings have been very successful, and the superpowers appear to be building up their defenses should a compromise fail...
...The losers in this arrangement would be the Israelis, who would find it increasingly difficult to utilize their Red Sea port of Elath in the event of conflict...
...Ethiopia also faces rebellions in the southeastern province of Ogaden —where Moslem Somali nomads are a majority—and in the West?where the Sudan-backed conservative Ethiopian Democratic Union (EDU) is mounting an insurgent campaign...
...The Saudis wanted the pipeline, again, because of the immense naval buildup taking place in Iran...
...In addition, Moscow's current naval strategy rests on the acquisition of more warm-water ports...
...But this will soon change: The territory became the independent Republic of Djibouti (named after the capital) on June 27, and the French Navy is scheduled to leave the country in a relatively short time...
...The third object of Saudi Arabia's Red Sea designs, the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, emerged in 1970 under the Left wing of its National Liberation Front...
...Through their monetary aid...
...Mariam, Abate and the other members of the Dergue, Ethiopia's ruling council, have sworn rapid allegiance to the principles of "scientific Socialism" and aligned themselves with the Soviet Union...
...The USSR now enjoys some port and fueling facilities in the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) and probably on the Somalian coast, but a foothold in Djibouti would be most welcome...
...Yet the Somalis may not be willing to give up Soviet technical and military support for merely financial compensation, no matter how substantial...
...at its southern tip Africa and Asia are separated only by the 15-mile-wide Strait of Bab e!-Mandeb...
...along its west bank lies the Horn of Africa...
...Ethiopia recently received a delivery of 31 Soviet-made tanks, 40 armored vehicles and six antiaircraft batteries from South Yemen...
...But besides serving as the gateway to the Red Sea, Djibouti, connected to Addis Ababa by rail, already handles at least 50 per cent of its neighbor's foreign trade and could end up its sole link to the sea: Ethiopia's own ports—Massawa and Assab—are both located in war-torn Eritrea, And should Somalia achieve its aim of taking over Djibouti, Ethiopia would be rendered completely landlocked...
...As the Somali dream indicates, the interest in Djibouti is at least as much ethnic as strategic...
...Tension developed between the two powers over the price of crude oil following the December 1976 opec conference, and Iran's earlier occupation of two islands in the Straight of Hormuz had given its Navy complete control of the entrance to the Persian Gulf...
...If it takes place, just one Red Sea country will be absent—Israel...
...As for the U.S., in April General George Brown negotiated the delivery of some sophisticated armaments to Inan...
...Immediately after the meeting, the assembled Presidents announced plans for another summit, with the added participation of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Ethiopia...
...While the former is still considered safe, Western influence in countries adjacent to Bab el-Mendab will be placed in serious jeopardy by the French departure from Djibouti...
...The country has gone through the most thorough Socialist revolution in the Arab world, with the help, initially, of China, and subsequently of the Soviet Union and its Eastern European allies...
...Under Italian rule from 1880s until it was occupied by the British in 1941, Eritrea was made a federated part of Ethiopia by the United Nations in 1950, then annexed outright by the Christian-Abyssinian-controUed Addis Ababa government in 1960...
...At its northern extremity, where Africa touches the Sinai desert, the Sea opens into the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal...
...It is all the more significant, then, that in recent months the two main tribes in the new nation—the Abyssinian Afars and the Somali Issas—have peacefully coexisted...

Vol. 60 • July 1977 • No. 14


 
Developed by
Kanda Sofware
  Kanda Software, Inc.