Britain Changes the Guard

MANDER, John

WHY THE POLLS FAILED Britain Changes the Guard BY JOHN MANDER London Where did Harold Wilson go wrong? Three weeks after the Labor party's defeat in the general elections the question is still...

...As for Wilson's position now, at a party meeting last week he was unanimously retained as Labor's chief, for he has already shown himself (1963-64) a superb Opposition leader...
...Three weeks after the Labor party's defeat in the general elections the question is still being asked here, and the answer will be long in coming...
...Heath, for example, remains no match for Wilson, either in the House of Commons or on the hustings...
...Enoch Powell, to cite one important example, has declared against entry...
...Does his defeat, after six years, mean that he has failed...
...In Richard Crossman's words, Labor had "run out of ideas," as it did in the late '40s under Clement Attlee...
...it was that even a born actor needs a play to bring out his talent...
...Undoubtedly, too, the demagogic Enoch Powell would have been there in the wings with some 20 newly-fledged "Powellites," in addition to the 20 or so left over from the previous Parliament...
...That harsh judgment is not without truth, but it requires qualification...
...This last implies that a change has taken place between Labor's narrow victory of 1964 and triumph of 1966, and its loss of 1970...
...Nor should one forget the old rule-of-thumb adage that the English tire of the same faces in the same government at fairly regular intervals????say, six to 10 years...
...Personal rivalries there will be, but not the kind of self-destructive in-fighting that broke out after the 1951 and 1959 defeats...
...Indeed, one of Wilson's chief errors during the campaign was his failure to exploit the full strength of his team...
...For all his plucky victory, his honesty and manifest ability, Edward Heath must be uneasily aware that his ultimate fate rests after all in the hands of Harold Wilson and Enoch Powell...
...What is more, Wilson refused to fight on the programs he and his colleagues had managed to realize during their term of office (improved social services, the new Ministry of Technology, abolition of capital punishment, repeal of antihomosexual and abortion laws, etc...
...Crossman, incidentally, is the new editor of the New Statesman????A splendid choice????And will no doubt consider it his duty to remedy the situation...
...To be sure, there was a pro-Labor swing from February until about a week before election day, but it was built on shallow foundations: Britain's strong balance of payments recovery, and the wave of strikes that put fresh money into the pockets of roughly half the population...
...It would appear that what the opinion polls caught was a temporary, superficial euphoria which did not alter the underlying pattern of resentment...
...Besides being altogether nimbler and quicker-witted, Wilson possesses a remarkable histrionic talent...
...Heath is totally committed to Britain entering the Common Market, as are most of his close colleagues...
...The extent of the Conservative party's commitment is another question...
...Should one conclude that Wilson was simply the victim of a fashionable misconception which, combined with a growing folie de grandeur, led to his downfall of June 18...
...John Mander's most recent book is The Unrevolutionary Society...
...The negotiations that began June 30 in Luxembourg will continue in Brussels for six months to three-four years...
...This sudden upturn, though, could not erase the memory of three years of "squeeze and freeze"????of rising taxes, rising prices and the unsuccessful 1969 attempt to improve statutory sanctions on unofficial strike action...
...Thus Tory leader Edward Heath has come into office carrying the extra charisma of having been right in the face of so many who predicted not merely his defeat but subsequent crucifixion by the party...
...For the moment, the new Prime Minister's prestige is very high...
...So it was not simply that Wilson overestimated himself...
...Duncan Sandys, for instance, is an old and passionately convinced European...
...Heath knows, too, that while something like two-thirds of the population favored Macmillan's first Common Market application in 1961, two-thirds are today against going into Europe...
...Personally, I would say no...
...It was an ambition of Wilson's, though, to make Labor one of the two "natural" governing parties in the country, to rid it of its ancient masochistic attitudes...
...Heath tends to be a bore...
...Still, should Labor unite in opposing the terms extracted at Brussels, the simple arithmetic indicates that the 40-60 Powellites in the Conservative party could bring down Heath's government...
...the other newspapers haven't finished eating humble pie for eagerly climbing onto the seemingly accelerating Wilson bandwagon...
...Some were unpopular, yet ignoring them entirely not only turned Wilson into an actor without a script but gave the impression that Labor was disdainful of the public...
...there is a very good reserve team as well...
...Many observers have even remarked how much happier Labor was in opposition than in government...
...And Powell, who is out in the cold, might just feel inclined to use his wrecking power against the Prime Minister on this issue where he has many open (and doubtless many more secret) allies...
...Heath disdains the mob and prefers the more dignified ambiance of the set public speech...
...Wilson can crack a joke with the crowd...
...In any event, the idea of transforming the election into a gladiatorial contest between two champions, American-style, was certainly his...
...This being by far the most important foreign policy decision Britain has had to take since the end of the War, feelings run high...
...The swing-of-the-pendulum concept has come to be considered "unscientific," yet the new wisdom may go the way of some other supposedly scientific methods in the wake of this election...
...And it is generally agreed that what has changed is something in Wilson...
...True, that does not mean the whole Tory Right wing is anti-Europe...
...It would not be too much to say that Ted Heath came nearer, in style, to speaking for the people of England than the cheery, chatty Harold Wilson...
...My own guess is that, despite all the good Labor may have done, the voters were basically sick to death of the Wilson government and chose the nearest alternative...
...Wilson is fun...
...Whatever may be said of the Labor party, it cannot be denied that they are good losers...
...But even though buoyed by support from the Tory Left-wing Bow Group, he is not in a position to push through a policy of entry into Europe on unfavorable terms against a determined opposition...
...He has built up an excellent team, nationally known and widely respected, that is at least equal to the Tory front bench...
...Of the heavyweights each of whom could assume the leadership if necessary????i would single out Roy Jenkins, James Cal-laghan, Denis Healey, and Barbara Castle, probably in that order...
...Meanwhile, the rather laborious, plodding Heath gave quite the opposite impression: He presented new ideas that he palpably believed in, he did not talk down to the people he addressed, and he made evident his impatience with the admen's apparent contempt for the public...
...Moreover, the Conservative majority of 30 is not very large by British standards, and one issue in particular could prove very awkward for Prime Minister Heath: the Common Market...
...The intensity of that opposition, of course, will be decided by Labor, and its temptation to declare that the best terms are not good enough for Britain will obviously be strong...
...Had he lost, something like that might very likely have happened, for the Tories have never been good losers...
...Only one poll, Opinion Research Centre in the Evening Standard, predicted the Conservative victory...

Vol. 53 • July 1970 • No. 14


 
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