Balancing Power in the Middle East

...Now it has spread to places as distant as Aswan, Athens, and Beirut...

...For Israel it would mean the achievement of long-sought objectives—an end to belligerency, and the recognition of Israeli sovereignty and boundaries by the surrounding Arab countries...

...Occupation of the Sinai Peninsula provides precious additional warning time in the event of an Egyptian air attack, removing the necessity (as Israeli strategists saw it in the past) of pre-emptive attack...

...Only a few months ago, Gunnar Jarring's patient shuttling from capital to capital in the Middle East and back to his peace mediator's headquarters at Nicosia was almost the only effort to settle the conflict...

...It would have to cover a long list of specifics: the drawing of permanent frontiers?involving the status of Old Jerusalem, various portions of the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip...

...Israel can also guarantee its own maritime access to Elat via the Strait of Tiran, eliminating the pressing need at the moment for passage through the Suez Canal...

...In addition, Greek and Turkish association with the European Economic Community offers a pattern that at some future point might well be extended to other countries, say, Lebanon or Israel...

...After long years of foreign rule and outside influence, nationalism has become their most deeply felt political passion...

...Even though they have used the Presidential transition period to gain the initiative, they are seasoned enough diplomats not to expect their opening bid to remain their closing bid...

...The broad outlines for the Council's possible approach are implicit in its resolution of November 22, 1967...

...Just as the peace treaty of 1871 did not stop two generations of patriotic Frenchmen from longing for the return of Alsace and Lorraine, it may take at least two generations before patriotic Arabs surrender their dream of reconquering Palestine...

...Nevertheless, as a restless region adjacent to two of these centers, the Middle East continues to be of greater political and strategic value than any of the other developing regions...

...Egypt, in particular, would be relieved of its close dependence on the Soviets for arms, and on the Arab oil monarchs for financial subsidies in lieu of Suez Canal revenues...

...For several generations they have been undergoing a frequently painful process of modernization...

...possible Jordanian access to Israel's Mediterranean port...

...Tangible achievements have included the dramatic advancement of all sectors of the Turkish economy, agricultural progress in Jordan, Iran, and Lebanon, and improved methods of administration and management in Egypt, Iran, and elsewhere...

...Jarring or seated in adjoining rooms, the bargaining would no doubt be hampered by greater animosity and suspicion...

...demilitarization of Sinai, the West Bank, and other areas...

...Sabotage operations inside Israel proper and in the occupied territories have been undertaken on a mounting scale by Arab Palestinians based mostly in Jordan and financed largely by Palestinians employed in the oil industry of the Persian Gulf...

...A fourth American objective has been to assist in the development of human and economic resources...

...Israeli-Arab economic cooperation would continue to lie in the even more distant future...

...military posture in the region can now be based on security needs mutually recognized and shared—our continuing cooperation with Turkey under nato being a prime example...

...The diplomatic energy the Russians have expended on the possibility of an Arab-Israeli settlement in recent months is a clear indication that the matter seriously concerns them...

...One major concern, ever since the mid-'40s, has been to find a solution to the Palestine problem that will safeguard Israel's right to a secure national existence without encroaching on the legitimate interests of its Arab neighbors...

...The two moves must be recognized as indispensable and mutually reinforcing parts of a single package—and this should be the burden of the new Administration's response to the Soviet overture...

...It would effectively protect the economic stake that our allies in Europe and Japan have in the regular flow of Middle Eastern oil...

...The Council should not merely decree (as a version of the Soviet plan recently published in Beirut implies) a reversion to the status quo of June 5, 1967, but rather encourage the parties directly concerned to find a more viable solution...

...The ongoing arms race, with the Soviet Union the sole supplier to Egypt and Syria and the United States the major supplier to Israel, poses the danger of superpower involvement by accident or design...

...The critical questions, whose answer will determine if there can be any scenario and any package at all, is: How would the dual solution of arms reduction and Arab-Israeli settlement affect the interests of the four principals...

...All of this is not to suggest, of course, that the twofold counterproposal to the Russians I have put forth would bring about instant amity between Arabs and Israelis...

...And to allow the rising tide of violence and retaliation to sweep over the Middle East and perhaps to engulf the major powers would be to court disaster...

...Israeli-Arab economic cooperation will remain Utopian in the foreseeable future, and to stress it prematurely could only be counterproductive...

...That leaves the Middle East as the most tempting area for applying an activist policy at minimal risk...

...the stationing of United Nations observers or peacekeeping forces...

...A second objective, embodied in the Truman Doctrine of 1947 and the Eisenhower Doctrine of 1957, has been to support the spontaneous forces of local resistance against a Soviet takeover of countries like Greece, Turkey, and Iran...

...But there remain the intangible and irrational factors of frustration, suspicion, and miscalculation...

...In our own calculations of global strategy, the Middle East today looms less large than it did only a decade ago...

...The most imperative U.S...

...For the United States, finally, such a twofold policy would be fully consonant with our commitment to world peace and freedom of global communications...

...If American endorsement of the Soviet proposal were to prove effective, it would hand a cheap material victory to Moscow's Arab clients at Israel's expense and a cheap moral victory to the Soviets themselves at U.S...

...While these operations have added to Israel's sense of insecurity, there is no prospect that they will become a prelude to recon-quest...

...It requires us to counteract any gradual erosion of the moderate Arab position in Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the oil states of the Persian Gulf...

...interest in the Middle East is to reduce the dangers it presents to world peace...

...At the very least, Russians and Americans should agree not to increase these levels...

...Rather, it is to formulate a coherent intermediate and long-range Middle Eastern policy and thus counter the Soviet overture with a meaningful initiative of its own...

...These attempts usually were fruitless or even backfired...

...Only a few months ago, the dismal pattern of sabotage and retaliation was confined mainly to the immediate Israeli-Arab border region...

...The Arab-Israeli conflict, the Arabs' increased dependence on Soviet support since their June 1967 defeat, and the impending British withdrawal from the Persian Gulf all add to the temptation...

...It must of course be remembered that, aside from the Arab-Israeli conflict, intraregional tensions and disputes (comparable to the recent civil wars in Lebanon, Yemen, and Cyprus, or the tension in 1961 between Iraq and Kuwait) are likely to recur...

...Because American companies participate heavily in the region's petroleum production, these operations provide an important source of foreign exchange in our balance of payments...

...At home, his government could for the first time turn its full attention to the country's massive social and economic problems...

...Since the June 1967 war, Israel holds a set of de facto lines that offer far greater military security than it has ever enjoyed...

...Finally, it requires us to counteract any bipolarization of the region: to prevent a situation where Israel would depend exclusively on United States support and its hostile Arab neighbors on support from the Soviet Union...

...Security Council action could take the form of a renewed mandate for Ambassador Jarring...

...Perhaps more important, petroleum production has brought enormous benefits to the governments and peoples of the oil-producing countries, and through institutions such as the Kuwait Development Fund benefits have extended to other countries in the area...

...Most important, the proposed settlement in the Middle East would relieve the Soviets of the risk of involvement in a regional or global war by proxy...

...A third objective has been to secure the normal flow of petroleum from the Middle East to its consumers in Western Europe and Japan...

...There is serious doubt, moreover, that even concerted pressure from the major powers could force Israel to accept a settlement based essentially on the status quo before June 1967...

...And no matter how many victories Israel wins, there will always be Arab countries beyond the military lines that it ultimately must be able to live with in peace...

...But to yield to either pressure, I think, would be equally foolish...

...A viable Middle Eastern policy must be a policy of limited objectives...

...To reinforce an emerging pattern of peaceful pluralism, the United States should encourage closer economic cooperation within the Middle East and between the Middle East and Europe...

...Although Israel has three times proven its superiority on the battlefield, any new conquests would make its position more precarious, for increasing the Arab population under Israeli occupation can only compound the problem of internal security...

...In the case of the Turks and Iranians, that passion has been harnessed to improving political and economic conditions...

...Much hard bargaining lies ahead if the twofold solution of arms reduction and Arab-Israeli settlement is to come to fruition...

...The nub of the problem is the combat jets in the region—more than 400 Soviet-made jets in Egypt and nearly 300 more in Syria and Iraq, as against 220 French- and American-made jets in Israel, plus the SO American Phantoms to be delivered in 1969 and 1970...

...For the shift from bombers to missiles, along with other technological changes, has gready reduced the importance of any territory outside the major political and economic centers of the world—that is, outside the United States, Europe, the Soviet Union, and Japan...

...It would relieve them of the embarrassment they have suffered in the past year and a half because all their pro-Arab propaganda and all their arms shipments have failed to secure any benefits for their Arab friends...

...To simply reject the overture would make the Soviet's moral victory still cheaper...

...An economic rapprochement between Europe and the Middle East would be quite natural, considering that Western Europe is the major customer for Middle East oil and that Europe's growing economy has been attracting workers from Mediterranean countries by the hundreds of thousands...

...Above all, peaceful pluralism means a Middle East where political change and the competition of outside interests will not set off a third world war...

...The Nixon Administration's response to the Russian diplomatic overture is likely to be the crucial step in working out such an understanding...

...it also has run into serious difficulties with China and with its neighbors in Eastern Europe...

...In either case, arms control should include an explicit understanding that Americans and Soviets will do their part to keep the Arab-Israeli area a nuclear-free zone...

...It would repeat our mistake in earlier situations (Suez 1956, Kashmir 1965) of allowing Moscow to claim the credit for a common American and Soviet desire to limit conflict among lesser powers...

...passage of Israeli ships through Suez and the Strait of Tiran...

...The outgoing Administration's decision to sell Phantom jets to Israel, Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko's hasty Dankwart A. Rustow, a previous contributor, is Professor of International Social Forces at Columbia...

...This requires us to oppose any drift of events that might result in a single power like the Soviet Union, or some militant pan-Arab leadership leaning on Soviet support, establishing its hegemony over the area...

...Now diplomatic activity has spread to Moscow, Paris, Washington, and the United Nations...

...As a result, in a post-Vietnam world the Middle East is more likely than any other region to bring us to the brink of a third world war...

...At the maximum, such a step could lead toward a settlement in consonance with the true interests of Israelis, Arabs, Soviets, and Americans...

...In the case of the Arabs, who experienced Western domination in the humiliating form of mandates and protectorates, who have suffered three defeats at the hands of Israel, and who have been frustrated in their desire for political unification, nationalism has often taken on a xenophobic tinge...

...visit to Cairo, General de Gaulle's embargo on arms to Israel, and the major Soviet diplomatic offensive of the last few weeks indicate that others have taken a similar view of the priorities...

...To many of the impatient and rhetorically inclined Arab leaders, alignment with the Soviet Union has seemed a perfect formula for opposing the West in the international arena while still pursuing modernization at home...

...Moscow has for the time being abandoned Nikita Khrushchev's riskier adventures in places such as Cuba and the Congo...

...Particularly during the mid-'50s, we sought to influence international alignments by encouraging defense pacts for which there was little local support, and by promoting our own solutions to some of the local political conflicts...

...There is no rational reason for a fourth round between the Arabs and Israelis...

...the reopening at the earliest possible moment of the Suez Canal...

...And the strength of the dual framework, I think, lies precisely in the advantages it offers each side...

...Israeli overextension and Arab weakness thus constitute the chief weights in today's uneasy Middle East balance...

...We should not play the policeman there, seek to prescribe forms of government and economy, or attempt to impose ready-made diplomatic solutions...

...Many objectives of our Middle Eastern policy, as they have evolved over the last two decades, retain their validity...

...The continuing state of belligerency, with its pattern of skirmishes, terrorism, and retaliatory bombing could easily flare up into full-scale warfare...

...It also means a Mediterranean that is open, as heretofore, to Soviet and American naval units...

...A POLICY PROPOSAL Balancing Power in the Middle East By Dankwart A. Rustow In the 11 weeks between Richard Nixon's election and his arrival at the White House, the Middle East moved ever closer to the top of the international agenda...

...expense...

...The bargaining between ourselves and the Soviets would have to establish, first, the vital connection between the two elements, and second, the precise extent and modality of arms reduction...

...But there are growing opportunities for the investment of Kuwaiti, Saudi, and Libyan oil monies in other Arab countries and in Turkey, with similar opportunities existing for European investment...

...Any re-examination of our Middle Eastern policy must proceed from an acknowledgment of the region's importance—for the Russians, for ourselves, and for our friends in Western Europe and Japan—to an estimate of the dangers inherent in the current situation...

...An end to the arms race in the Middle East would remove a major cause of tension in the area, but it would not cure the endemic causes of domestic political instability in the Arab countries, or remove the recurrent causes for disputes among them...

...The major contribution the superpowers can make to Middle Eastern peace is a reduction of the present level of armaments there...

...The estimate that prompted Nixon to dispatch his first international emissary, former Governor William Scranton, not to Southeast Asia but to the Middle East has proven sound...

...Otherwise, it is meaningless for the Security Council to pursue its attempts to bring about an agreement between the Arabs and Israelis...

...Consequently, to attain peaceful pluralism our immediate policy must be aimed at preventing a resumption of full-scale war between the Arabs and Israelis, at removing or alleviating the tensions that might ignite it, and at stopping the dangerous arms race that could quickly escalate into an American-Soviet confrontation in the Middle East...

...It would make possible, in the years ahead, an American policy of peaceful pluralism for the Middle East?and thus provide a constructive answer to our search for "evenhanded-ness" in the area...

...It would not in other respects bring American and Soviet interests in the Middle East or the Mediterranean into accord...

...When they do, Washington must stand by its prior commitments without turning the dispute into a full-fledged U.S.-Soviet confrontation...

...This called for the "termination of . . . belligerency," "acknowledgement of . . . sovereignty," "secure and recognized boundaries," "establishment of demilitarized zones," "freedom of navigation through international waterways," and a "just settlement of the refugee problem...

...As for the United Arab Republic with its replenished Soviet arsenal, it should remember from the experiences of 1956 and 1967 that mere weapons without adequate training and organization cannot insure victory: Indeed, they may precipitate defeat...

...There is every reason for the U.S...

...Within the realm of rational calculation, each side would stand to lose if it deliberately started a fourth round...

...Among the permanent realities of the Middle East are the memories and hopes of the nearly 150 million inhabitants in the area stretching from Egypt to Iran and from Turkey to South Yemen...

...The list is formidable, but its very length suggests the number of accommodations and compromises that could be hammered out once negotiations began in earnest...

...policy for the Middle East would appear to be one that recognized the significance of the region's pluralism and sought to encourage its movement in peaceful directions...

...As in 1956, Nasser could once again claim to have retrieved by diplomacy what he lost on the battlefield and so restore much of his tarnished prestige in the Arab world...

...The Middle East is the major non-Communist area immediately on Russia's borders...

...As for the U.S...

...There is little point in trying to forecast the successive steps of the diplomatic scenario, or the exact ingredients of the final package...

...The diversity of interests in and around the area is too entrenched to allow for anything but a pluralistic solution...

...Technical assistance under the Agency for International Development and its predecessors, food shipments under Public Law 480, and private philanthropic programs have all been part of this American effort...

...It would asincreasingly dependent on foreign military and economic support...

...The challenge before the new Ad-rninistration, therefore, is not how it should respond to momentary pressures for or against the Soviet plan...

...It would cast them in the role of champions of peace and put us psychologically on the defensive...

...It would be more effective in achieving security for Israel than additional military shipments, and it would be compatible with the interests of the Arabs...

...Similarly, we have friendly relations of long standing with countries like Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Jordan...

...The challenge to constructive diplomacy is to find a basis for rational understanding between the U.S...

...Again, rationally there is no reason why two powers that have backed away from confrontations over Quemoy, Berlin, Cuba, and Vietnam should risk a nuclear holocaust over the Middle East...

...Yet irrationally there looms the fact that the Middle East, in contrast to other parts of the world, offers no prospect of a neat separation of spheres of influence...

...The Soviets are likely to press the Nixon Administration for an early answer to their peace plan, and there already is strong counterpres-sure from Israel to reject it out of hand...

...Another permanent reality of the Middle East, however, is the deep-seated pluralism that is an inescapable result of its diversity...

...The long run, though, is made up of so many short runs placed end to end...

...Between the Arabs and Israelis, whether sending messages through Dr...

...It would simply channel the continuing rivalry into safer and more peaceful directions...

...Preferably, the existing levels should be reduced, with a major share of the reduction falling upon the Arab side...

...To the Soviets, the twofold solution would hold out the very tangible advantage of passage through the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean...

...and USSR that will in turn remove the dangers of irrationality that Arabs and Israelis by themselves are plainly unable to allay...

...and the USSR, the proposed policy would make explicit a joint but limited interest in keeping the Middle East from embroiling them in a senseless arms race or a global confrontation...

...This heightens the chances of confrontation through ambiguous commitments, bluff, or considerations of prestige...

...Rationally, too, each side would gain by working out an agreed settlement that removed the danger of war breaking out more or less accidentally...

...compensation and resettlement for Palestine Arab refugees...

...Other elements of our past Middle Eastern policy reflected passing concerns or otherwise proved inadequate...

...At the minimum, it would provide a serious and public test of Soviet intentions...

...to enter negotiations of this kind with confidence...

...The removal of Soviet planes from Egypt would be fully justified, since the purpose for which they presumably are there—Israeli withdrawal from Suez and Sinai?would be achieved peacefully...

...Given all these circumstances, the best possible U.S...

...Arms reduction might take a variety of forms...

...Peaceful pluralism means a Middle East where there is room for Israelis as well as Arabs, where "revolutionary" and "moderate" ideologies can live side by side, where differing economies can trade freely with each other, and where governments will feel free to cultivate the friendship of the United States, of the Soviet Union, or both...

...The stakes in the Middle East are too high to allow a continuation of the present drift...

...And this pluralism is reinforced by such external factors as the importance of its water and air routes for global communications, Europe's need for oil, and the proximity of Russia...

...While Russia, as an oil exporter, does not need the Middle East's petroleum, it would benefit more than almost any other maritime nation from a reopening of the Suez Canal...