Rhodesian Roulette

NIELSEN, WALDEMAR A.

The STAKES OF THE GAME Rhodesian Roulette By Waldemar A. Nielsen "Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow UDI" had been the standard joke in Salisbury and Bulawayo for weeks. On November 11 the...

...Church leaders in the major cities have now spoken out against the outlaw government...
...would have to indicate its readiness to assure the emergency transport of Zambian products in the event of a rail cutoff, state its desire to join in an objective study of alternative routes and methods of transport that might be developed, and make clear its eventual willingness to join in financing whatever method proves most advantageous and feasible...
...Ian Smith's broadcast to his countrymen announcing the break away from Britain will long be remembered, at least for its incongruity: "Let there be no doubt that we in this country stand second to none in our loyalty to the Queen," the rebellious leader declared, adding, "It is our intention Waldemar a. Nielsen, whose book African Battleline was published this year by the Council on Foreign Relations, is president of the African-American Institute...
...Prime Minister Harold Wilson of Britain described the outcome of his final effort to stave off the disaster in these words: "I ended the telephone conversation [with Rhodesia's Prime Minister Ian Smith] with a heavy heart, feeling that reason had fled the scene and that emotions, unreasoning racialist emotions at that, had taken command regardless of the consequences for Rhodesia, for Africa and for the world...
...The chief Soviet UN delegate, Nikolai T. Fedorenko, has already charged before the Security Council that "Rhodesia's action was taken as part of a plan by the U.S., Britain and the other Western powers to keep the Southern half of Africa under white colonial rule...
...As a result, Whitehall from the start has felt constrained to renounce any use of force in dealing with eventualities...
...And Britain, caught in the frying pan, is hopping briskly, if not merrily...
...A commitment of this kind would go far to strengthen the general British position in Rhodesia, sober the Rhodesians around Smith, demonstrate our bona fides to all of Africa, and protect a country of crucial importance to the future stability and development of central and southern Africa...
...when it granted internal self-government to Rhodesia, Britain has been in the awkward position of bearing more legal responsibility than real authority there...
...There are at least some signs that the odds on his gamble are becoming more favorable...
...His warnings to Smith before the Unilateral Declaration of Independence were sharp and clear...
...They are particularly critical of Rhodesian leaders in exile, whom they feel have made no plans and have carried out no effective action...
...As of now, the answer is totally obscure...
...might well declare its full backing of the principle of Zambia's right to a means of economical transport which cannot be strangled by hostile neighbors...
...His country, though not invulnerable economically, can probably hold out for some time against a program of sanctions, and in the end, can probably rely on South Africa to buffer it from financial collapse...
...Yet reluctant as it has been to meet Smith's challenge squarely, Britain has in recent days been drawn by the sweep of events into bolder actions than many anticipated...
...If Britain's risky riposte to Smith fails, then U.S...
...When the crunch came with Smith, Britain had to rely largely on intangibles for its influence over the colony-especially the sense of "kith and kin" and of loyalty to the Crown on the part of most Rhodesian whites...
...Powerful and volatile forces have been set in motion...
...He has branded the action of the Smith group "treasonable" and has said it will be held fully accountable for its illegal act...
...Although Wilson has put his country's prestige far out on the end of the branch by such reaffirmations and declarations, he has chosen to follow a most sophisticated gamble of his own in applying less than maximum pressure on Rhodesia at this time...
...By the time these words are in print, the Rhodesian storm may well have taken a new and decisive turn...
...Throughout he has labored with admirable patience and persistence to avoid the disaster...
...that the Union Jack will continue to fly in Rhodesia and the national anthem continue to be sung...
...is at the mercy of Rhodesia for its coal and electric power...
...and many of whom fought bravely with British forces in World War II...
...Perhaps the most ominous danger of all, however, if the Smith government manages to remain in power, will be the poisoning of relations between blacks and whites throughout Africa, and the exacerbation of an already visible cleavage in the world between white and non-white nations...
...The U.S...
...has taken all the initiative it might have -and still should-in the area where it has both large direct interest and some influence, Zambia...
...Those adjacent to Rhodesia are almost immobilized by their vulnerability to Rhodesian sanctions...
...He has also apparently begun to lay a basis for armed intervention under certain circumstances- if called for by the Queen's Governor in one statement, to preserve law and order in another...
...And in applying economic and legal sanctions Wilson has taken stern but not all-out action- undoubtedly with the intention of thereby dividing Smith's Rhodesian support and of encouraging development of effective opposition to Smith within Rhodesia...
...Officials from the State Department and Whitehall consulted closely in advance of the showdown, even to the unusual point of developing joint contingency plans...
...And the rail line over which Zambian exports and imports largely pass crosses Rhodesian territory en route to the Indian Ocean...
...The independent African states, on the other hand, are in division and disarray as to what to do next...
...The Queen's Governor...
...He has taken care to rusticate thousands of their leaders in order to maintain their political inertness...
...More and more, Wilson has come to grasp the full magnitude of Britain's dangers and responsibilities...
...Foreign Minister Michael Stewart was instructed to report at the UN Britain's determination not to use armed force...
...Our policy of close support for Britain has been based on a clearheaded recognition that our own direct economic and political influence in Rhodesia is minor-however great our interest in the general stability of the area-and that our best course is therefore to work through Britain, whose influence and legal power are great and whose objectives are compatible with our own...
...Along the eastern flank of Rhodesia Smith can rely on Portugal's colony of Mozambique to prevent any incursions...
...If Smith is not turned out, the primary manifestation of their feeling will, of course, be in the UN...
...But the irrationality is more apparent than real...
...Second, there is African agreement that Britain must be pressed via all available means-including the Commonwealth and the United Nations-to intervene forcefully to control the rebellion...
...But there are no free rides in diplomacy, even aboard coattails...
...At the very least, it seems certain that larger forces will be drawn into its path...
...Weak and ineffective though they may be in the short term in retaliating against UDI, the leaders of independent Africa have been powerfully stirred by the prospect of extended white oppression of the blacks in Rhodesia...
...Smith's action may have been mad, but it was not stupid, for he has a number of strengths on which he can count...
...To head off any Afro-Asian efforts to substitute UN action for British control, he has gone to great -and perhaps risky-lengths in asserting full British responsibility for all events in the colony...
...Smith's action represents a des-parate gamble for himself and his supporters...
...There, if Britain falters, the General Assembly will rip the problem out of its hands with consequences utterly unpredictable...
...If Wilson's gamble in the clutch of the crisis succeeds, then he will have achieved a stunning triumph, comparable only to John F. Kennedy's demonstration of the graduated use of power in the Cuban missile crisis...
...Wilson himself, anticipating the possibility of losing control of the situation to the United Nations, has spoken of the real danger of a "Red Army in blue berets" some day fighting in Rhodesia...
...Sir Humphrey Gibbs, has conducted himself gallantly in defying the orders of Smith...
...Zambia, the copper-rich and landlocked country to his west...
...Since November 11, we have followed Britain promptly in withdrawing our consul general, closing our information office' and imposing certain trade restrictions...
...United states policy, prior to and following the crisis has been admirable, but not wholly satisfactory...
...There is reasonable doubt, though, that the U.S...
...Like Smith's statement, the whole Rhodesian situation would appear to be upside down: white nationalists in Africa leading an independence effort and the Afro-Asian states demanding British intervention- by force if necessary-to impose its authority over a colony...
...And, in calling for British intervention, the Afro-Asian states are attempting to press Britain-as the most influential and available instrument-to upset a bald effort by 220,000 whites to perpetuate their domination over some four million blacks...
...Quite clearly, however, the outcome will affect not only Rhodesia but events throughout all of southern Africa and beyond...
...In the 40 years that followed, a consistent policy of minimal interference in Rhodesian affairs further eroded what little legal and constitutional power it held over Rhodesian political affairs...
...But the large majority consider such action utterly unrealistic, although they are also smoldering with resentment and frustration at what has occurred On [economically two points do the Africans Seen to be in substantial agreement, First, they feel that the division and ineffectiveness of the Rhodesian nationalist movements have given Smith his crucial advantage...
...The question starkly posed is whether they will get away with it, or whether Britain will be able to reassert control and, turn the rebels out...
...The Rhodesian Government's Declaration of Independence was a botch of bad language and worse thinking...
...In sum, Smith has trumps to play...
...his responses since then have been vigorous and unequivocal...
...On November 11 the anticipated and unfunny act finally occurred...
...Moreover, the vigor of British policy has been hobbled by a wide sympathy among Britons for the Rhodesian whites-many of whom were encouraged to settle in Rhodesia by the policy of former British governments...
...Congress toward the whole matter...
...As President Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia has said, 'They have betrayed us all...
...Once loose, they may follow their own course and sequence, leaving bleached and bare along their trail the hopes and intentions of those who unleashed them...
...Britain's world prestige will be in shreds...
...Incidentally, in his statements on the Rhodesian Crisis, Edward Heath, the Conservative leader, has given his most wretched performance...
...Skepticism and suspicion about British intentions and integrity will be aroused in all of Africa and in much of the world...
...White Rhodesians line up each day at Government House in Salisbury to sign the register of loyal subjects of the Queen...
...Beyond that, African bitterness can infect all Western relations with the continent for years to come...
...The Commonwealth will surely crack...
...Further to the north, a few leaders have suggested the dispatch of African troops against Rhodesia...
...Beginning in 1923...
...In his handling of the crisis, Harold Wilson has given his finest foreign policy performance...
...The USSR will exploit the situation to the fullest in hope of rehabilitating its own tarnished image in Africa...
...But if Wilson fails, the aftermath will be appalling...
...interests will not escape the consequences...
...Internally, his political support by the whites has steadily increased in past months, and his police control over the blacks appears to be firm...
...There our best move would seem to be a prompt and unequivocal statement of policy supporting Zambia on the controversial issue of a new and reliable rail link to the sea...
...Our policy makers have probably done all they could do to aid and stiffen the British position in Rhodesia itself, especially in view of the indifference of the U.S...
...Beneath the bizarre appearance lies a harsh political logic: Smith's major obstacle is the continuing strong sense of loyalty among white Rhodesians to Britain -a feeling to which he must accommodate at any cost, including that of inconsistency...
...To make such a declaration effective, the U.S...
...As the situation moved toward climax, Washington joined Britain in sober warnings of the consequences of UDT...
...Some reports suggest the possibility of serious moves by several white political figures to form a new regime of some kind without Smith and based on a rescission of DDT...

Vol. 48 • November 1965 • No. 23


 
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