Prospects for 1963
HERALD, MAURO CALAMANDREI / GEORGE W.
Prospects for 1963 In Italy By Mauro Calamandrei The past year in Italy has seen steady progress toward a major political realignment that may fundamentally alter the country's balance...
...And the changes brought about by "neo-capitalism"—as Italians call it —have made ideological differences less important...
...But even these initial measures have led to a strain between the Left-wing Gaullists who want to go further much faster, and the conservatives grouped around Finance Minister Giscard d'Estaing...
...To paraphrase Pope John, the Council has opened the windows of the Vatican and let some fresh air into its stuffy rooms...
...The economic statistics for the year just ended will not be known for some time, but the available data confirms that the Gross National Product has continued to increase at a substantial rate...
...The basic situation, however, has not changed...
...Undoubtedly, the men involved in these schemes would reject any charge that they are fascist-minded...
...The regime would like to replace it by a socalled Economic and Social Council, whose members would be named, at least in part, by the Government...
...In countries where capitalism has brought about an advanced state of economic development, he pointed out, it is through democratic institutions that the transformation of society has been realized...
...This last, because it reflected the deepening schism between Moscow and Peking, dominated reports of the Congress in the international press and tended to obscure the fact that the Italian Communist leaders were primarily concerned with domestic political issues...
...Whether General de Gaulle's nuclear arms are finally integrated into NATO or not, they will cost France $620 million this year...
...For the Liberals, who speak for conservative businessmen, it would mean complete exclusion from the Government after many years of being part of the ruling alliance...
...We think we can solve social problems our Commies flatter themselves in thinking only they can solve—but which they cannot solve because a country's social problems can never be solved by a party or individuals who are taking their directives from abroad and are in the pay of foreigners...
...The total military budget will amount to $1.8 billion, as compared to $580 million for building construction, $550 for education and $220 million for agriculture...
...Under these conditions, it is feared that Gaullism—with or without corporate reform—will not find the domestic tranquillity its November victory seemed to presage...
...Many observers still doubt Pope John XXIII's liberalism...
...As long as the military effort comes first, though, many of the social improvements dear to Malraux and his friends on the Gaullist Left may have to remain on paper...
...Fouchet's tendency is well represented in the Government, notably by André Malraux, who during the recent election campaign, predicted: "Soon there will be no one left but us and the Communists...
...Then as now, the purpose of such projects was to bar the road to Communism...
...There is simply not enough money around to prepare against the external Communist danger and, with equal efficiency, fight the danger from within...
...since last spring's political realignment both parties have been exchanging ideological blows in the columns of Avanti (Socialist), L'Unità (Communist) and other newspapers and magazines...
...If relations between Catholics and Socialists are not unduly strained in the coming months, the new coalition could be formed after the general elections in the spring...
...Many of the delegates must have been startled to hear their Chinese comrades labeled as dangerous deviationists and President Kennedy praised as a peace-loving statesman...
...Those days are clearly over, though some stubborn prelates persist in behaving as if they were responsible for the Government...
...In France By George W Herald Paris Avast reform program that is to change France's political face in 1963 is now being drafted by the new Government of Premier Georges Pompidou...
...During 1962, two phenomena accelerated progress toward a total political realignment: continuing economic prosperity, and the radical change in the public image of the Catholic Church...
...indeed, the Senate remains the last bastion of the Fourth Republic...
...D'Estaing, who is not a member of the UNR but belongs to the Republican Independents, represents France's high finance and high bourgeois society...
...There are sincere idealists in the Gaullist ranks —as there were in the Nazi ranks— who believe that the power of the country's Communist party can be broken only by drastic social reforms...
...For the Communists, it would mean total isolation for the first time, and probably loss of control over hundreds of municipalities and other local institutions where until now they have been able to rule in coalitions with Socialists, Social Democrats, Republicans and other minor parties...
...To begin with, many Catholics are genuinely hostile to any alliance with a Marxist party, and Socialist workers and intellectuals are traditionally suspicious of the Church...
...In this new atmosphere, it is clearly possible that the present coalition system — whereby Christian Democrats award key Cabinet positions to Social Democrats and Republicans in exchange for the votes Cor simply the abstentions) in Parliament of Left-wing Socialist deputies—will be replaced by an organic alliance in which the Socialists will be asked to share directly in government responsibilities...
...As a result, the Cabinet has already announced that it will offer more aid to the aged in 1963, grant more liberal farm credits, launch a bigger housing effort and revamp the system of food distribution...
...But the regime hopes that the Socialist Force Ouvrière and the Christian-Democratic Confédération Française des Travailleurs Chrétiens, which consist mainly of white-collar workers, teachers and functionaries, will show themselves more amenable...
...Pope John himself has intervened on at least two critical occasions to overcome anti-democratic procedural rules and implement the majority's will...
...The Socialists believe that the social and political reforms achieved through democratic government should be primary goals of the working class, not tools for the destruction of the Western alliance...
...There are, however, numerous obstacles to a general political realignment...
...In the new National Assembly several orators have already complained that the Government's social measures are insufficient...
...And they would be even more shocked and surprised if told that a copy of this system was brought to Germany exactly 30 years ago this winter by Adolf Hitler...
...He feels that the current French prosperity is a delicate plant that could easily be crushed by too much social action, and has warned the reform-minded Gaullists against undue haste...
...Nor was outspoken criticism from a Socialist the only surprise at the Communist Congress...
...Fully aware of the influence the Church often exerts—directly or indirectly—on political life, the Italians have closely followed the progress of the Ecumenical Council...
...By denouncing the Socialists, on the other hand, he was hoping to encourage demoralized party workers to renew their fight against their former allies and now most dangerous competitors...
...Last but not least, like most other countries France will give top priority to military expenditures in 1963...
...A growing split with the Socialists could also endanger their influence in the General Confederation of Labor, or at least reduce the organization's power...
...But it was no accident that the defeated faction usually included several Italian cardinals who in the past worked earnestly and effectively to block any Leftward movement by the Christian Democrats and interfered directly both in elections and in Government affairs...
...It would be a mistake to believe that de Gaulle's atomic defense program is unpopular in France...
...George W. Herald is a veteran foreign correspondent based in Paris...
...At the time the present Italian coalition was established, many believed it would provide the Communists with a golden opportunity to influence the Government and destroy democratic institutions...
...Many of them are too young even to be aware of the resemblance between their plans and the corporate state system first introduced by Benito Mussolini in Italy...
...There are also powerful interests which fear that under a solid Center-Left government Italy would move too far to the Left in economic and social affairs, and might even slide into a kind of semineutralism in foreign affairs...
...If the project comes to pass, the Gaullist Union for the New Republic (UNR), which is primarily a bourgeois urban movement, will have no trouble finding the required number of delegates from the big employer groups...
...and 3) the disappearance of the Senate in its present "antiquated" form...
...Nevertheless, the Socialist and Christian Democratic parties have in common a broad popular following, made up largely of the same groups that took the first steps toward political maturity at the end of the 19th century and became political forces of national significance at the time of World War I. This common background, even when there are marked ideological differences, usually enables Socialist and Christian Democrat leaders to find agreement much more readily among themselves than with the more idealistic spokesmen of other movements having long traditions but little popular following...
...In French political circles it is felt that in 1963 France will be afflicted by new periods of social unrest, and that all of General de Gaulle's personal authority will still be needed to keep the country on an even keel...
...To be sure, the disagreements in the Ecumenical Council concerned ritual, the nature of the Church, the sources of divine truth and the techniques for apostolic work...
...Responsible leaders of the coalition parties are now studying Pietro Nenni's proposal for a five-year program encompassing foreign and domestic policy as well as economic planning...
...The conservatives in France are worried above all about the future of the European Common Market...
...Vallon is confident that such progressive Gaullist trade unions would weaken their rivals' hold on the French working class...
...In his opening address to the Congress, the Italian Communist leader had once again denounced the cooperation between the Left-wing Socialists and the Christian Democrats, maintaining there could be no real movement to the Left without the Communists...
...it would also tie the Left-wing Socialists to the other three parties in Parliament and in the Government...
...The Communists must make clear to the electorate, Lombardi declared, whether they too believe social progress is possible under a parliamentary system, or whether such progress is considered only a steppingstone to an eventual Communist take-over...
...While their exact tenor remains a secret and nothing definite has as yet been decided, the broad outlines of the impending reform are already known and are being widely discussed in Paris political circles...
...What was unprecedented, however, was the spectacle of a Socialist leader lecturing a Communist national congress on "the Italian road to Socialism" and the proper goals of the working class, and claiming for his own party the ideological and political leadership long considered a Communist monopoly...
...Yet, as in Germany, the question is whether they can prevail over the huge military-industrial complex that is backing their regime...
...Interest was so widespread that magazines, newspapers, radio and TV have given unprecedented coverage to the event...
...Will they be willing to let themselves be "integrated" into the State, which would mean being neutralized and diminished like the parties...
...Several interministerial committees are now busy working out the details of these projects...
...Lombardi's speech was in fact a direct attack on Palmiro Togliatti...
...Naturally, the Liberals and the Communists are not happy at the prospect...
...The last of these reforms promises to be the most revolutionary...
...By taking the initiative in publicly denouncing the Chinese, Togliatti was attempting to re-establish himself as a Communist leader of international stature and silence younger elements within his party who have been saying it is time for a change...
...Lombardi then proceeded to explain why the Left-wing Socialists support the Fanfani Government...
...Yet only by understanding the problems and pressures facing the party, and its uncertainty about what political line to follow in the future, can the apparent contradictions in Togliatti's speech be resolved: Togliatti condemned the dogmatic Marxist orthodoxy of the Chinese Communists, but at the same time attacked the Left-wing Socialists for supporting a Government committed to coexistence and progressive reforms...
...His idea is to create new "independent" syndicates with very daring social programs, including fresh formulas for profit-sharing and workers' participation in management...
...It would be a sort of corporate chamber composed of representatives of trade, industry, agriculture, civil service, universities and labor syndicates...
...The French would not want to see their tax payments wasted on planes and missiles that are outmoded by the time they get into production...
...In the past, progressive Catholic leaders were likely to move with extreme caution, if at all, for fear of being denounced, reprimanded or frustrated...
...The disagreement," he said, "is substantial, not marginal or tactical, and we wish you would recognize it for what it is—even if we are not 600 million strong like the Albanians...
...But only a few months of qualified cooperation between the Christian Democrats and the Socialists have demonstrated that the experiment can work to the country's benefit...
...On December 18, French Information Minister Christian Fouchet, a former Ambassador to Denmark, granted an interview to the Copenhagen newspaper Berlingske Tidende, in which he said: "We are a social party, yes, we are a daring social party...
...The CenterLeft coalition could easily turn out to be more durable than the Center coalition that ruled Italy for most of the post-World War II period...
...In attacking the Fanfani Government, he was reaffirming his stand that without the Communists there can be no true "opening to the Left...
...Prospects for 1963 In Italy By Mauro Calamandrei The past year in Italy has seen steady progress toward a major political realignment that may fundamentally alter the country's balance of power...
...The increasing divergence between the two groups was evident at last month's Communist party Congress...
...As the new year opens, Paris is full of rumors that the British, in their dismay at the way Common Market negotiations are going, might devaluate the Pound Sterling by 15-20 per cent, a step which would have disastrous consequences for the exports of the Six...
...The big question mark, of course, is still the cooperation of the syndicates...
...But if the Government can prove—as it thinks it can—that because of recent scientific breakthroughs its weapons will not become obsolete, it can count on the same popular backing it received in the recent elections...
...If not, Louis Vallon, leader of the Union Démocratique du Travail and the house economist of the Gaullist Left wing, has already thought up an alternative...
...In contrast to the National Assembly with its half-dead political parties, the new Council would be billed as representing le pays réel—the real country...
...For the Communist-dominated Confédération Générale du Travail, which has won 44 per cent of the seats in the nationwide Social Security board elections on December 9 and remains the biggest French labor union, the answer is obviously No...
...A large majority of Senators are opposed to de Gaulle...
...Nenni's plan would create a solid majority of moderate and progressive forces, leaving the Communists alone as the opposition on the Left, and the Fascists, Monarchists and Liberals on the Right...
...At the same time, they have increased the demand for greater public initiative, which only a government with solid parliamentary support and a clear program could provide...
...This would include specific commitments to social and political reforms and deadlines for their implementation...
...Step by step, the structure of the State and of French society is to be adapted to what General de Gaulle calls "modern necessities...
...Speaking as the official Socialist representative, Riccardo Lombardi emphasized the gap which divides his party from the Communists...
...As for the farm areas, the Gaullists have started out on what they call "rural implantation," i.e., a systematic conquest of seats in village and town councils as well as in the departmental chambers still widely controlled by their opponents...
...The content and tone of Lombardi's speech were by no means new, though...
...Italians are convinced their political leaders will no longer be restrained by ecclesiastical authorities, not even if the present papacy ends in the near future...
...he praised peaceful competition between capitalism and Communism and advocated progressive alliances in a climate of freedom, but denounced the present Italian Government although it represents just such an alliance...
...Can they be persuaded, by their mere presence in the new Council, to endorse the Government's social and economic policies...
...In supporting moderate reform policies, he was trying to keep pace with the mood of the country and at least keep a foot in the door of government...
...Three major institutional changes are said to be under study: 1) An extension of the President's term of office, so that the election of the next chief executive (probably once again de Gaulle) can be made to coincide with parliamentary elections...
...the majority of cardinals and bishops have revealed a deep-rooted desire for change and reform...
...In contrast, relations between Communists and Socialists, once united in a common front, have gone from bad to worse...
...Because of Italy's large manpower reservoir and the original low level of economic take-off, the country is not likely to experience in the near future the slowing down of expansion that lately has been apparent in other Common Market countries...
...But the first session of the Ecumenical Council has shown that only a small number of Catholic cardinals and bishops accept the conservative and even reactionary image of the Church created during the papacy of Pius XII...
...The Church has been a factor in making possible Italy's movement to the Left...
...They are doing nothing to encourage Britain to join, for they can see only disadvantages for themselves if it gains entry...
...Yet they equally dread the thought that Britain might stay out, for no one knows what will happen then...
...And now that the first session has concluded, one doubts that "change" is any longer a forbidden word in the Church...
...Mauro Calamandrei is the United States correspondent for L'Espresso, the liberal Italian weekly journal...
...Among other things, they charged that big earners in France paid less income tax than in any other Western nation and that 61 per cent of all taxes were indirect, thus putting the main burden on the average citizen...
...2) the creation of a Supreme Court after the American model...
...Since the formation last February of Prime Minister Amintore Fanfani's Center-Left coalition Government—made up of Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Republicans, and supported by Pietro Nenni's Left-wing Socialists—Catholics and Socialists have moved closer and closer together...
Vol. 46 • January 1963 • No. 1
