Why Israel Expects War
ALEXANDER, MARK
Now that its Suez demands have been granted by Britain, Cairo may seek prestige by external military adventures Why Israel Expects War By Mark Alexander Jerusalem Britain's decision to evacuate...
...Egypt is hardly in a conciliatory mood, and it is fairly certain that she will reject all peace bids and continue to threaten war...
...As for the expected declaration from Washington that Cairo has "guaranteed" to use the arms for defensive purposes only, they insist that this is not the case...
...But these arguments, observers contend, will be canceled out by another factor: Egypt must show Russia that the large quantities of arms she is soon to receive from the United States are not intended for use against the Communists...
...By the summer of 1955, however, the evacuation will still be going on and it is fairly certain that nothing spectacular will have been accomplished on the domestic front...
...Some observers think the State Department feels thnt an Israeli defeat would not be a bad idea...
...Others think Washington feels that a more sober and realistic state of mind would prevail in the Arab States and Israel if they let off some steam through local encounters...
...The West would impose an arms embargo and perhaps even set up a naval blockade against the warring countries, but these moves would not mean much...
...As students of World War II know, this is merely a technical problem...
...And even if Israel was victorious, the resultant suffering and damage would seriously set back the country's development...
...A war against Egypt, moreover, is undesirable because Israel does not want anything beyond the Sinai desert...
...What is more, Egyptian demands for full national sovereignty were sympathetically received in the West...
...The Jews are too troublesome...
...Some believe that Nasser is in earnest when he speaks of a war against Israel, and they insist that a preventive war is unfortunately necessary...
...Should anything go wrong—though this is thought unlikely in Cairo—the other Arab countries could be counted on for aid...
...They would undoubtedly convene the Security Council, but on the basis of past experience it is safe to assume that Russia would prevent any positive decision by that body—which would be of doubtful value anyway...
...While most Egyptians would probably oppose such a campaign at present, a suitable propaganda build-up might well change the attitude of the masses...
...They also made it clear that Egypt did not plan to enter any Western alliance...
...The presence of 80,000 British soldiers in this area, they maintain, acted as a wedge between the two hostile camps that have been sniping at each other since 1949, when an uneasy armistice ended the Arab-Jewish war...
...And as late as July 30 Ahmed Shukeiri, Deputy Chief of the Arab League, reiterated these sentiments...
...While observers here are generally pessimistic and consider the present state of affairs highly explosive, they still feel that Britain and the United States can preserve peace in the Middle East...
...The soldiers are needed at home, English officials argued, and the country is in no position to continue spending tens of millions of pounds on Suez each year...
...They also do not see why their country should do the dirty work while the other Arab League countries, which have never gotten on very well with Cairo, reap the spoils...
...Signing of the Anglo-Egyptian pact was a major victory for Nasser and the military junta...
...They are extremely fearful, however, because time is running short and Washington and London do not seem to appreciate the gravity of the present situation...
...Jerusalem also feels sure that Washington would not discriminate financially between the attacker and the attacked in the event of an open conflict...
...The Labor party has favored leaving Suez for many years, and the United States has been urging this move for some months past...
...This can be accomplished only by some striking success in foreign policy, and in this area the one possible move is a war against Israel...
...Britain, France and the United States guaranteed the present frontiers in 1950 and they may soon reiterate this guarantee, but it is considered a mere scrap of paper...
...But mostly Middle Eastern experts contend that the Machiavellian schemes attributed to the State Department are unjustified...
...Since Nasser's statements make it clear that a war is inevitable, why should Israel wait until her opponent is armed to the teeth by the Americans...
...Cairo seems confident that the United Stales would fear the consequences of a decisive Egyptian defeat...
...Actually, howBRITAIN'S ANTHONY HEAD (LEFT) WATCHES NASSER SIGN SUEZ PACT ever, use of the Canal is a minor consideration compared to Israel's concern over the possibility of a new Egyptian invasion...
...There are three theories here about Washington's motives in pushing for a Suez agreement and acceptance of American arms by Egypt...
...It became evident that England did not share this view, however, when the Imperial General Staff, Downing Street and the Exchequer pressed for Suez evacuation...
...Who can say, after all, whether the military junta will be in power a year or two from now...
...As they see it, Washington does not really have any policy at all, except that it wants to form another paper alliance and dump some arms here and there...
...The Kremlin, after all, has everything to gain from a war that would not involve any of its satellites but might weaken some Middle Eastern countries to the point where a few more "people's democracies" would emerge...
...their very presence makes the possibility of a Middle East defense pact remote...
...These observers concede that Her Majesty's troops did not prevent the outbreak of war in 1948 or even uphold free passage through Suez during the past few years, "but they insist that the garrison has been a stabilizing force...
...A war against Israel is also considered desirable because it would raise Egypt's stock in the Arab League and give her a chance to try out new weapons...
...While these statements may come as a shock to Western optimists, they are no surprise to observers in Cairo...
...Israeli opinion on this subject is split into two camps...
...The junta itself is divided on this issue...
...Some feel that a war would not be wise because a desert divides Egypt and Israel, and Egypt has no territorial interests whatever in Palestine...
...This group feels, therefore, that the young state should attempt to arrange direct talks with Egypt and find out what her intentions really are...
...Israel's immediate reaction to the Suez agreement was that she could now press for free use of the Canal...
...At present, Israeli public opinion seems to favor this second view, but this attitude is not likely to prevail much longer...
...Why shouldn't the battle be fought at a time and place convenient to Israel...
...None of these countries would be willing to send soldiers into the Middle East...
...Once stymied in the Security Council, the Western powers could be expected to follow their usual policies...
...LieutenantColonel Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egyptian Premier and head of the recently victorious military junta, and Major Salah Salem, his chief aide, have virtually killed this hope, however...
...The latter, of course, assumed that a British-Egyptian agreement would open a new chapter in Cairo's relations with the West and eventually result in her entering some sort of Middle East defense pact...
...Apparently they are right, too, for Washington has not been able to point to anything tangible...
...America would announce that it was cutting off all aid grants, which would not bother the Egyptians, who have been getting along without them until now, or the Israelis, who assume that aid will be discontinued anyway because of the State Department's present anti-Israel line...
...If the junta wants to uphold its prestige, it will have to do something to revitalize popular support...
...There are enough arms for a war in the Middle East right now, and both Egypt and Israel have built munitions factories...
...Even more important, the new Egyptian Army, which has been trained by German officers since 1948, could be put to a real test...
...If this does not help, it is assumed that Washington will step in before the Egyptian Army is completely destroyed (just as the British intervened in January 1949...
...Since Britain no longer stands in the way, if Egypt refuses to lift her blockade Israel could easily render the waterway useless during most of the year...
...Both men have declared in speeches that soon after the Suez evacuation the "Palestine issue" would be tackled...
...The second camp bases its arguments on the theory that nothing in the world—especially in a country like Egypt—is inevitable...
...There is one point, however, on which all Middle Eastern experts agree: If a war does break out here, it will last a long time...
...If the latter again refuses such talks and repeats her threats, an alternate course of action will always be open—but no stone should be left unturned in the effort to find a modus vivendi...
...Just as the Sudan settlement extended General Naguib's political life for six months, the present turn of affairs will undoubtedly result in Nasser's maintaining his position for at least a year...
...Now that its Suez demands have been granted by Britain, Cairo may seek prestige by external military adventures Why Israel Expects War By Mark Alexander Jerusalem Britain's decision to evacuate the Suez Canal, some observers here feel, will almost certainly set off a general war in the Middle East...
Vol. 37 • August 1954 • No. 33
