How Much Food Will Postwar Europe Need?
Jasny, W.
How Much Food Will Postwar Europe Need? By W. Jasny THROUGHOUT the war it has been asserted time and again that Germany has suffered great food shortages and that its food situation was...
...There is not the smallest chance that shipments may prove too large...
...The large surpluses of animal products that Denmark used to send to Britain and elsewhere have shrunk to a fraction of the prewar level, since Denmark lost its large imports of grain, oil-cake, and other concentrates...
...i Even the minimum quantities of fat needed by continental Europe will not be fully available before the end of the war with Japan...
...As is often the case, the truth is to be found between the two extremes...
...The population of large Greek cities had hardly more than half of what the urban population of Denmark obtained...
...It ia a popular mistake to exaggerate the extent to which supplies seized by Germany in foreign countries helped to feed the German population...
...The men in all the armed forces ate more and better than in civilian life, and the waste of food is materially greater in the army...
...Furthermore, eastern Germany is supposed to be occupied in full by the Russians temporarily snd m part by the Poles and Russians permanently...
...Some experts estimate the minimum quantities to be much higher...
...The diversion of fe il to food at most offsets half of the decline in the per capita supply of calories...
...This was not the COSc...
...Uncertainty exists only as to how long the breakdown will laat and aa to the rate at which it will be possible to restore the controls...
...Many milliona of lewdnesses urban dwellers in continental Europe had less than three-fourths of their prewar intake, although the over-all decline ia the per capita food supply was only 10 to 12 percent...
...The exhortation of the Fr.nch Underground "¦ninst the d lvery of fooel to the Quisling governnt fell on fertile soil...
...Every addliwnal million tons will be a very important contribution to ensuring peace...
...Would the British or Americans stand for this in a territory under their control, be it even an em my territory...
...Moreover, all or most surpluses of these countries may go to Russia, which also suffers greatly from food shortages, as part payment of reparations due to that country...
...The wishful-thinking of the latest pattern of appraisal is almost as dangerous as the earlier one...
...In July, 1944, infants were dying at a rate equivalent to almost 50 percent per annum...
...If under such conditions western Germany were left to depend on its own resources, the food situation in Hi cities would not diffir substantially from the disastrous one in the Greek cities in 1941...
...Would it be too much to let him have, if po«sible, as much of such bread as he likes, after four years of undernourishment and humiliation...
...From an economic point «f view it is desirable that Germany continue to function si one economic unit in spite of the temporary political splitting1, but even so the apprehension is rather general that the exchange of goods between the various occupied tones, or at least between west and east, will be greatly hampered...
...Assuming they would not, millions of tons of food would hove to be supplied...
...Some food from outside sources may also be needed by Czechoslovakia...
...FJ . r OOD was distributed strictly according to requirements in only one country of continental Europe, Germany., During five years of war the German Government gucceeeled in laying its hands on practically every bit of food produced by the farmers in excess of their quotas, thus reducing black market operations to a minimum...
...Converting eggs into feed, as had to be done with surplus eggs, means that not more than two percent of the original substance ultimately reaches human consumption ) The sooner France and other countries of continental Europe are permitted to start rebuilding their depleted livestock herds, the better are the chances of ensuring peace, and this means lots of imported fe-d-grain...
...This, there was 10 to 12 percent less food available p r capita than before the war in the whole Naziik.ninated territory before the Nazis started losing grcund rapidly...
...The European countries not ovcirun by G.rmanySpain, Portugal, Switzerland, and Sweden — have continued to obtain food from overseas throughout the war, the quantities rec ived by Spain being quite large...
...A temporary further relaxation of controls is not improbable...
...Some writers believe that only a small proportion of the population of Europe suffered a more than moderate decline in food intake (aay by more than 10 percent...
...As was the case with Italy a short time atto...
...The diversion of the feed of these animals to direct food use saved three-fourths to nine-tenths of tl:e substance which is lost when crops are converted Into food via the digestive systems of domestic animals, but this very saving brought about » conVdcrable di Irri nation of th:> die...
...Since then, bread rations have been cut and gome other foods must follow if the war lasts much longer...
...The fact (hat in the first five years of war Germany succeeded in preventing a more than relatively moderate decline in the food intake of its urban population,-, waa largely due to the very efficient functioning of the food procurement and distribution system...
...Perhaps 200,000 tons of imported fst would be needed to provide fair fat rations as well as a moderate supply of fat for technical uses...
...Many Italians are glad to be rid of the Fascists, but the first thing thy need is bread, macaroni, and oil...
...total crop production in the area as a whole declined by about 10 percent...
...who delivered little when the requests were' supported by Fascist bayonets must be expected to deliver even less under the milder rule of the AMG or of the new Italian government...
...The former optimistic appraisal of the German food aituation as heading toward catastrophe bore the dsngerous implication that no full-scale effort would be needed to beat Germany in the field, that before long shortages of food snd other commodities would bring Germany to its knees...
...And so wiU the Netherlands and Poland...
...Continents...
...After their natives have returned from Germany, those countries, taken as a "hole, will be no better off than they were during the war...
...In spite of small shipments from other Nazidominated countries, the fo.d situation in the Belgian cities was very bad, especiel.'y since procurement controls functional pooiiv...
...Many believe that it will break down completely after the end ef hostilities and there ia general agreement that for a long time to come the system will not function as effectively as in the first live war years...
...Is the expectation unrealistic that for some time both controls will function very poorly and there> will be no exchange of goods between western and eastern Germany...
...d Europe may perhaps even have a chance to start storing its depleted livestock herds...
...By the spring of 1945 the average for the urban population may be close to the 2,000-calorie mark...
...Owing to 'is and to th~ fact that Germany teak s Urge part of what littlay the Quisling government aunts adad in procuring, the low...
...The requirements will just be satisfied a little more fully...
...the Gorman war effort was substantially affected...
...By W. Jasny THROUGHOUT the war it has been asserted time and again that Germany has suffered great food shortages and that its food situation was rapidly approaching a critical stags...
...How much of this .tan be made available and proyided with shipping ;«pace cannot be discussed here...
...To offset this large deficit, about ,'10 percent of the hogs and poultry and smaller percentages of other animals had to be slaughtered in continental Europe i s a wh;ie, the reduction in hogs and poultry in the Netherlands being as large as 70 to 85 percent respectively...
...And that Europe's fifth war crop may have exceeded the prewar level...
...The same is true of meat end many other foods...
...The American whole-wheat bread is a goo.I, highly palatable product, but it consists of two-thirds of white wheat flour of high br...
...that most Nasi dominated countries wort starring, and that, as a result...
...income groupa of the 'French urban population were undernourished «nd some of them even starved...
...7'o make the curtailment bearable, however, it would have had fe he evenly distributed...
...However, even if this does not happen, the food situation in France will not be satisfactory ao long as the country has to rely excluaively on its own resources...
...With the approach of victory, there has been a rapid reversal of opinion...
...Europe as a whole was by no means overfed before the war, and in many countries the composition of the diet left much to be desired...
...To be sure, Germany profited from her food takings abroad, but the gain consisted mainly in that these imports permitted her to employ the large army of foreign workers...
...In I'olland the situation will be worse...
...The shipments to these countries will doubtless increase considerably when hostilities end in Europe...
...The ri port must have been a groat surprise to the optimists who believed that Europe would need only moderate shipments of food...
...France also needs a great amount of grain—both food and feed...
...Malnutrition and undf nourishment are doubtless widespread in Europe...
...The heavy Enrop an bread, on the other hand, is made entirely of while flour from poor wheat or rye, frequently with a Imixture of barley, oats, potatoes, and simlar materia's unsuitable for bread-making...
...The terrifying report of General O'Dwyer to the President on the food situation in Rome is still in everybody's memory...
...The black market was also unimportant in Denmark, where the population was lei more or lam ad.qu.tely...
...While the Italian food supply during the war was not much worse than that of Germany, the low-income population of large citiesmay have had not mere than two-thirds of its meager prewar diet...
...Farmers could not be prevented from eating as much as they did before the war, and some even improved their diet...
...The^great majority of Italian farmer...
...Although Germany has been getting only s small amount of fat from France recently, tht ration of the normal consumers was only ?? granu per week...
...Moreover, distribution among countries was uneven...
...Thus the civilian urban population not only had to bear the total decline in food supplies but the curtailment in food available for it was greater .than the decline in total supplies...
...the British and Americans are expected to occupy western and southern Germany...
...Elsewhere in Europe, the black market flourished...
...French North Africa, which used to ship food to France, has nothing to spare...
...These two factors and not the seizure of foodstuffs by Germany in other countries account for the relatively adequate wartime diet of the civilian population in Germany...
...Participation in the war, shortage of consumers' goods, and weakness of procurement systems cot also substantially the export surpluses of the Danubian countries...
...Bread is the foundation of the French diet, and it is white bread on which the Frenchman's heart is set...
...It creates the comforting illusion that- the import requirements of continental Europe will be small and that no great effort will be needed to satiafy them, and prevents us from realizing the great importance of preparing for and shipping as much food as possible to Europe...
...Fiance is one of the countries in which a great ileal of food reached the consumers by way of the black market...
...and nothing even approaching peaceful order will be reached before those essentials are provided in fairly adequate quantities...
...There will be little opportunity to cover part ot the very large requirements of the deficit countries of continental Europe by the surpluses of the surplus countries of Europe itself or adjacent territories...
...At the same time, food requirements were boosted by wartime conditions, such as long hours of work, insufficient sleep, and other hardships...
...The unfavorable effect of the large declines in the consumption of fat and rnimal protein wes even larger than that of the det ri ration of bread...
...Norway, Finland, and Austria after its separation from Germany, will certainly need large shipments...
...Although no food has been permitted to reach Nazioccupied territories, the disastrous situation in Greece necessitated an exception...
...Italy certainly did not figure with a single pound in their computations of Europe's import requirements...
...The advantage for the German civilian population from those takings lay almost entirely in the fact that the composition of the imported food was more valuable than that of the food produced domestically...
...The shipments to Europe will] have to consist mainly of grain...
...Indeed, the caloric value of the foodstuffs from foreign e-ountrles was little in excess^of the caloric value consumed by the foreign workers in Germany...
...nii-mcking quality...
...Germany is not included among the countries needing* food imports after its collapse...
...Nevertheless, a 10 to 12 percent curtailment in food intake, even though it was accompanied by a considerable deterioration of the composition of the diet and an increase in requirements, could have been endured for a-me time without very serious adverse consequences...
...The aim of the present .discussion is only to point out that-very large quaii* ••'ties will b* required and that a great effort is urgently Meded to provide as much as possible...
...Would it not be wise, in order to attain this goal, to reduce the use of wheat for feed which is still practiced on a large scale in this country...
...To ensi/r.' a minimum eliet to the low-income Italian urban population, at least 1,000,000 tons of grain, 100,000 tons of fat, and quantities of other fooels will be required...
...Productivity of agriculture could not be upheld in continental Europe during the war...
...Yet it is Germany which may ultimately become the destination of the largest food shipments in continental Europe...
...oil cake, and other concentrates...
...The huge vegetable-fat production in French West Africa has dwindled greatly...
...The fact that little food taken in other countries waa left after the requirements of the foreign workers in Germany were covered is overlooked by those who assume that the discontinuance of German takings will greatly improve the situation in the countries previously obliged to "export" to Germany...
...Now, eastern Germany is an important surplus area, while the greatly industrialized west is a deficit region on a large scale...
...Also, the diet of those millions frequently contained only negligible amounts of fat and animal protein...
...The German civilian urban population averaged around 2,200 calories per day in 1943-44 as against around 2,700 calories before the war...
...Since the area used to cover about 10 percent of its food requirements by imports and since there was some increase in population during the war years, the per capital supply fell short of the prewar quantity by more than 20 percent...
...No such exception was made, however, even for Belgium, which before the war depended on foreign supplies to the extent of 50 percent...
...The great resentment on the part <f consumers toward the w,v,ole-grain bred inferred by circumstances in most countri s of continental Europe is frequently misunderstood in the United States...
...The Italian peasant did not heed the urgings of Mussolini's Government for deliveries any more than did the French peasants those of their Quisling government...
...With reference to the food from the current Italian crop, there is also the likelihood that Germany may succeed in extracting substantial quantities before it ultimately quits that country...
...This system already i* allowing signs of weakening...
...Especially ao long as the 2,000,000 Frenchmen now b Germany remain there, the discontinuance of Germaa takings would permit a substantia) improvement is the food aupply of the urban population, provided tht controla of deliveriea do not deteriorate.* There is hardly any reason to expect sn improvement in tht controls for soma time...
...The fact that the German civilian urban population waa among the best fed in.,-continental Europe was mainly due to the very efficient functioning of procurement and distribution controls, as well as to the fact that Germany was able to prevent a large decline in her output of farm products from the high level reached in 1939...
...Only the sugar surplus of Czechoslovakia seems to have remained intact...
...Now we are told that the agriculture of continental Europe has not suffered substantial losses during the war...
Vol. 27 • November 1944 • No. 47
