Where the News Ends

CHAMBERLIN, WILLIAM HENRY

Where the News Ends By WILLIAM HENRY CHAMBERLIN Election Postview In • pre-election column I assumed the thankless role of a political prophet and predicted the re-election of Mr. Roosevelt by...

...An interesting straw in the wind in New York was th* relatively strong showing both of th* new Liberal Party and of the American Labor Party from which the Liberal Party seceded...
...ThIS absence of marked regional differences reflects, I imagine, the growing influence of nationally heard radio comment and nationally read syndicated columns in ironing out sectional differences and opinion...
...If that idea had only occurred to him sooner, victory might have been within his grasp...
...But there are larger issues involved...
...The change-over from war industry tat peace-time production will occasion some tlislocatioee which will lead to severe jurisdictional strains...
...Roosevelt by a smaller electoral college and popular majority than he received in 1940...
...This probably reflects the uneasiness of the socially conservative South over pro-labor tendencies of the New Deal and over the "racial equality" ideaa attributed to Mrs...
...The impact of demdbili aatton will be less severe mi the AFL than on the CIO...
...Roosevelt erred in underestimating his electoral college majority...
...But I know that I went wrong because I overestimated regional differences of opinion in the country...
...But despite, this fact, that old and stable organization haa a number of uncertainties to face...
...Had electoral votes been distributed in the same proportion as popular votes, the final box-score would have been about 280 to 246, which could not be conaidered overwhelming...
...Both conventions will be forced to take action with regard to the knotty problems presented by the invitation from the British Trade Union Congress to a special international labor conference to be held in London during the month of January...
...It is certainly doubtful whether any leader lesa forceful and magnetic than Mr...
...If that kind of peace is not achieved, the responsibility will be easier to fix if no element of partisan hostility between the White House and the majority in Congress arises to becloud the pict've...
...It has been said that one cannot elect a Trend, lt haa proved equally true that one cannot elect a Largest Common Denominator, especially when the objective aituation waa so unfavorable to a change...
...Here one moot reckon with the passionate desire of millions of American families to aee no future wars...
...Roosevelt remarked after the election that he had worked out and put away in a drawer an estimate of 336 electoral votes for himaelf, 19C for Mr...
...But the combination of a favorable record of military and naval achievement, with the prospect of hard fighting of uncertain duration, added up to a strong arguments for retaining the present Administration...
...Whether the AFL will participate will be decided by the New Orleans convention...
...Roosevelt could count on holding together indefinitely such disparate elementa aa the PAC and seme of the more conservative Seathern Democrats...
...Even in the Solid South and in the border states which go Democratic except in Republican sweep years, the Roosevelt majorities showed a marked decline by comparison with 1940...
...I have no means of knowing just how Mr...
...On the other hand, 1 cannot lay claim to the pinpoint accuracy of Klmo Roper, of "Fortune," whose forecast of 63.5'( of the popular vote for Roosevelt came very close to hitting the bull's-eye...
...On the surface the London conference called to deal with the problems of peace and postwar reconstruction...
...Hurja, of "The Pathfinder," who might almost be considered an election prophet in reverse...
...Moreover, alleged American isolationism has become a popular scapegoat for everything that went wrong with the world between the two wars...
...A rule of long standing prevented this body from admitting more than one federation from any one country...
...Perhaps Dewey can blame his defeat on the late appearance of Izrestia't mastirmind analysis of the American political scene, with its suggestive hint that there would be a staged plot against Dewey's life, to be attributed to the Communists...
...It is also a good thing if men like Gerald Nye and Hamilton Fish cannot be held responsible for any failure to make a good peace...
...It may be that thia increasing tendency to cheese political side* en a national rather than regional basis carries within it the aeeda of a fundamental ¦hake up in old party alignments...
...Roosevelt has been fortunate in the economic climate of his three successful appeals for re-election...
...Roosevelt, but preferred not to vote for the Democratic Party...
...A preliminary conference to formulati plans will meet in London December 4. Three members of the CIO, Sidney Hillman, R. J. Thomas, and Emil Rieve, are already on their way to England...
...On rummaging through one of my own deak drawers, 1 find a guess of 333 for Roosevelt, 198 for Dewey...
...But without success...
...This indicated that there were some 800,000 voters (easily a large enough number to hold the balance of power) who were willing to vote for Mr...
...The tide in the election ran atrongly against isolationism...
...In view of ,the countless millions of words that appeared in print during the election and that bounced off the ether waves, it would be rash to be too sure about what was uppermost in the minds of the twentysix million Americans (more or less) who voted for Roosevelt and of the twenty-three million (more or less) who voted for his opponent...
...The IFTU, in addition, has, with -the support of AFL delegates, refused to accept representatives from the Russian "unions" on tbt ground that they are not free, that they more or less directly repreaent the Soviet government.* « With the obvious purpose of somehow getting round what seemed like an insurmountable difficulty, tht British TUC has now issued invitations to all national organizations with the purpose of forming a new body with new rules which will permit a more general representation...
...has thus far refused to reply to the British invitation...
...Had it been going badly, or had it been successfully completed in Europe, the arguments for "a change" might have sounded more convincing...
...But the rule in the recent election was small state-by-state majorities, outside of the Solid South, with the President winning a substantial majority of the states, especially of those which are more populous and more industrial...
...I suspect that the average voter is less influenced by "ideological" arguments and more by bread-andbutter considerations than the average argumentative publicist is inclined to believe...
...Obvious success in the election entails responsibilities...
...This is what occurred, so 1 have no reason to put on sackcloth and ashes, like the unfortunate Mr...
...Thus the cleavage within the American trade unlet) movement has extended to the international field...
...The prewar industrial boom was beginning to create more jobs and better wages in 1940...
...The state of the war also must have influenced the decision of a fairly large number ofjvbters...
...TllE strong influence of the PAC was reflected not only in the Presidential "outcome, but also in the Congressional vote...
...And the present war economy, with all its minor shortages, inconveniences and strains, is, in the main, providing full employment at a relatively high wage level...
...By a curious coincidence, my private state by-state estimate of election prospects went askew by almost the same margin as the President's own...
...On this account the CIO has been left out...
...The AFL...
...Then is less hope than ever of peace and unity between ear two great federations...
...Speaking more seriously, one may find an element of explanation for the election result in the fart that Dewey acted more like a human Largest Common Denominator than like a leader with strong political, social and economic convictions, for the sake of which he would have been willing to lose votes...
...Sir Welter Citrine, its president, has exerted all possible pressure to persuade the AFL to share its msndate with tht CIO...
...The calling of this conference has resulted from the difficulties experienced by the International Federation of Trade Unions...
...Dewey...
...An Editorial AFL-CIO in Convention The flurry ef political campaigning ia concluded...
...Next week the American Federation of Labor and the Congress of Industrial ©rgauixations will gather ,3 New Orleana and Chioago to wrestle with eeononda raalitiaa...
...The CIO convention delegates will have the job of' assaying the success of its Political Action Committee and deciding along what lines it will develop its futurs political action...
...If the PAC is to be regarded as aa educational device, its activities must be continuous...
...This was in contrast to 1940, when strong opponents of American intervention in foreign wars like Walah of Massachusetts and Wheeler of Montana ran ahead of the President...
...There ahould now be no obstacle, in American political life, to the conclusion of a peace settlement based on the Atlantic Charter and the Four Freedoms, on non-recognition of territorial changes achieved by force, on the sovereign equality of peace-loving states, including, one hopes, Poland and Iran...
...No amount of sophistry could conceal the fact that America in 1936 was in vastly healthier condition than America in 1932...
...If it is to function effectively in the congressional campaign two years hence, strong local organizations must be built up and'tied in with regional and state political forces...
...If he achieves that kind of peace, President Roosevelt can rely on the cordial approval and support of a large nonpartisan majority of the American people...
...The recent election shows hew a fairly cloae popular veto can lead to an electoral college "landslide...
...I expected Dewey to make a much cleaner sweep of the Middle West and, specifically, to carry states like Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri and Michigan...
...It is probably a good thing, from the standpoint of making America's voice heard in the councils of the world, that the President should have a majority of his own party in both Houses of Congress...
...How eloquent this nonsense was about the Soviet conception of democratic political methods...
...Roosevelt's personality and the PAC are probably the two strongest reasons why the result of the polls in 1944 was so different from what it was in 1942...

Vol. 27 • November 1944 • No. 47


 
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