Jackboot Democracy
THE ELECTT HE(HE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE ELEC )tions was utter anticlimax. War or no, historic right tionsIMMEDIATEwas utter anticlimax. War or no, historic(AFTERMATH OF) right wing victory...
...funds...
...Alfredo Cristiani, speech cited in "El proyecto economico Alfredo Cristiani, speech cited in "El proyecto econ6mico de ARENA,"Proceso (San Salvador), No...
...It also remains to be seen whether the old line coffee It also remains to be seen whether the old line coffee oligarchs such as Orlando de Sola who bolted the party oligarchs such as Orlando de Sola who bolted the party during the agrarian reform debate who have not been during the agrarian reform debate who have not been at the center of the recent ARENA political offensive, at the center of the recent ARENA political offensive, regain political coherence in the environment provided regain political coherence in the environment provided by the Cristiani government...
...Elections, March 1989, also from Americas Watch...
...Working together, ARENA and the ArmedArmed Forces could revamp the paralyzed legal appara Forces could revamp the paralyzed legal apparatustus with stringent "anti terrorist" legislation, cracking with stringent "anti terrorist" legislation, cracking down hard on legal opposition groups...
...To a lesser extent, ARENA will have to deal with the PCN, (which officially took third place in the voting as a result of appar (which officially took third place in the voting as a result of apparent fraud against the social democratic Democratic Convergence) ent fraud against the social democratic Democratic Convergence) and the even smaller rightist parties, although most of these have and the even smaller rightist parties, although most of these have been effectively marginalized by their pathetic vote counts which been effectively marginalized by their pathetic vote counts which altogether totaled only 2.28...
...altogether totaled only 2.28...
...Armed Forces and Embassy an "internal coup...
...Sabotage is compounded by massive capital flight Sabotage is compounded by massive capital flight andand the deterioration of economic infrastructure, par the deterioration of economic infrastructure, particularly among the abandoned farms in the most con ticularly among the abandoned farms in the most con fictive areas, which now include much of the southern flictive areas, which now include much of the southern cotton belt...
...2)" The aftermath of an April bomb attack on Vice The aftermath of an April bomb attack on Vice President elect Merino's home, the responsibility for President elect Merino's home, the responsibility for which remains undetermined, is illustrative.22 The Armed which remains undetermined, is illustrative.' The Armed Forces High Command met immediately with leaders of Forces High Command met immediately with leaders of the ARENA dominated National Assembly to develop a the AR NA cnminatPd Natinnal AQr pmhlv tn dpvulnn a legislative response...
...A legal framework limiting freedom of speech, assembly, and political mobilization can be of speech, assembly, and political mobilization can be imposed, as can strict population controls carried out by imposed, as can strict population controls carried out by police and paramilitary forces...
...As one officer said of ARENA,ARENA, "If it cannot assure the aid from Washington, "If it cannot assure the aid from Washington, itit is not acceptable as a political counterpart, for we'll is not acceptable as a political counterpart, for we'll wind upwind up bringing the country to catastrophe and discuss bringing the country to catastrophe and discussinging where we went wrong in Miami...
...Thus there are not enough top positions to distribute to all the officers who enough top positions to distribute to all the officers who have a "right" to expect them...
...Today, however, the U.S...
...trained, and equipped by its American mentors...
...8, 1988...
...The strategic counteroffensive will be discussed in depth in the forthcoming companion issue of NACLA's Report on the Ameri the forthcoming companion issue of NACLA's Report on the Ameri cas...
...The party has unified the bour ing from a strong hand...
...Each has arrived at its present ARENA and the FMLN...
...That's what the United States did in World War II...
...480 (Oct...
...ARENA economic advisers say essentially bankrupt...
...UNOC leaders in fact conducted a poll of the membership prior to the elections which revealed more support for the Demo prior to the elections which revealed more support for the Democratic Convergence than they had suspected...
...4. AsociaciOn Cafetalera de El Salvador, Dec...
...Each has arrived at its present positionposition not only through superior organizing capability, not only through superior organizing capability, but throughbut through its ability to formulate a long term political its ability to formulate a long term political projectproject and develop it methodically, even in the chaotic, and develop it methodically, even in the chaotic, shiftingshifting sands of a society in civil war...
...directly out of his profit margin...
...The FMLN denied any part of "a wave of violence by the FMLN...
...Sweeping predictions that the mented under legal cover...
...Advocates of special operations enemy lose initiative...
...ARENA could make its highly organized urban base available to the Armed Forces as organized urban base available to the Armed Forces as intelligence and para military nuclei...
...ARENA would like to wage a total war tion paid for it...
...backed UNOC labor confederation, whose rural base comes largely from agrarian reform coopera ral base comes largely from agrarian reform cooperatives, threatened to "take up arms" if ARENA moved tives, threatened to "take up arms" if ARENA moved against their land...
...4) TheThe "low intensity conflict" strategy has largely run "low intensity conflict" strategy has largely run out of steam as one program after another has been out of steam as one program after another has been overwhelmed by the weight of Salvadoran social real overwhelmed by the weight of Salvadoran social real ity.'5 The concept of integral operations involving civic ity.' (5)The concept of integral operations involving civic action, psychological operations, civil defense, and so action, psychological operations, civil defense, and so forth theforth the central axis of the LIC approach continues central axis of the LIC approach continues in form ("due to custom," as one officer put it), but has in form ("due to custom," as one officer put it), but has lostlost much of its content.'6 much of its content.'(6) "We have noticed that while people don't reject us "We have noticed that while people don't reject us whenwhen we offer them food and medicine, neither do we we offer them food and medicine, neither do we obtain the hoped for results such as voluntary intelli obtain the hoped for results such as voluntary intelligence,gence, open rejection of the FMLN, voluntary formation open rejection of the FMLN, voluntary formation of civil defense forces, and so forth," the officer said...
...As the country shut itself down for way to the beach...
...In addition to D'Aubuisson's notorious connec claim...
...But these, as one analyst close to the military noted, are largely "fake...
...There16...
...Similarly, the daily papers owned by ARENA backers...
...In March, Chief of Staff Col...
...In recent years, however, some analysts have ques recent years, however, some analysts have questionedtioned the continued validity of this division, given the the continued validity of this division, given the increasingincreasing diversification of capital and the interpene diversification of capital and the interpenetration of the two groups.29 Cristiani himself is a good tration of the two groups.(29)Cristiani himself is a good example...
...But in seven days the only guerrillas encountered were unseen snip days the only guerrillas encountered were unseen snipersers who took potshots at the camp after dark despite the who took potshots at the camp after dark despite the factfact that the patrols were in the northernmost section of that the patrols were in the northernmost section of Morazan province, the toughest guerrilla stronghold in Morazin province, the toughest guerrilla stronghold in El Salvador...
...T HERE IS A MINORITY IN THE ARMED FOR T HERE IS A MINORITY (IN THE ARMED FOR)ces leadership, among whom the highest profile ces leadership, among whom the highest profile officer is air force chief Gen...
...They may also push a disgusted and abandoned PDC They may also push a disgusted and abandoned PDC base to look Left...
...See El Rescate Human Rights Department, "El Salvador Chronology," Vol...
...The work of groups like MAN, the specter of D'Au The work of groups like MAN, the specter of D'Au buisson, and Ochoa's musings about an "atomic bomb" buisson, and Ochoa's musings about an "atomic bomb" solution all feed the fear of "total war," a fear particu solution all feed the fear of "total war," a fear particularly palpable among urban activists who cannot rely on larly palpable among urban activists who cannot rely on the guerrillas to defend them...
...20, 1988, Research Triangle Institute...
...9. Movimiento9...
...as one U.S...
...issue of NACLA's Report on the Americas...
...cratic Convergence than they had suspected...
...1989 issue of Foreign Policy...
...The correlation of forces will make a large scale wave of repression very difficult...
...continued backing from Wash ington will go a long way toward maintaining the party ington will go a long way toward maintaining the party as a force that ARENA will have to come to terms as a force that ARENA will have to come to terms with.2with.2 At the very least, Washington will want to sus At the very least, Washington will want to sustaintain its ally as a ready alternative with which to keep its ally as a ready alternative with which to keep ARENA in check and, above all, to avoid the defection ARENA in check and, above all, to avoid the defection of the frustrated PDC base to the Left...
...and into his new Authentic Christian Movement (MAC...
...Then Chief of Staff Gen...
...But to base current Forces which saw no other option...
...19.19...
...They simply insist that their assump a can opener...
...The they plan to consolidate these then sell them off...
...have specific and contradictory interests at stake...
...undated...
...In thethe capital area where Bustillo's troops have jurisdic capital area where Bustillo's troops have jurisdiction,tion, air force troops have been implicated in a growing air force troops have been implicated in a growing numbernumber of grisly murders and disappearances...
...sympathizers in the mountains...
...Operacion Movilidad to protect the gas sta Operaci6n Movilidad to protect the gas stations...
...Annual port revenues and the high cost of the war...
...But they would also offer it major opportunities...
...Thus far these efforts too have been blocked in large Thus far these efforts too have been blocked in large part by thepart by the Tandona itself...
...Other cases involving Bustillo's forces can be found in reports by Tutela Legal and Americas Watch, and in the "El reports by Tutela Legal and Americas Watch, and in the "El Salvador Chrononlogy" published monthly by the El Rescate Salvador Chrononlogy" published monthly by the El Rescate Human Rights Department...
...the "protection" offered by pressure from Wash the "protection" offered by pressure from Wash ington is not an insurmountable obstacle under the right ington is not an insurmountable obstacle under the right conditions.conditions...
...designeddesigned program of counterinsurgency which stresses political program of counterinsurgency which stresses political andand social reforms along with a specific set of military tactics...
...If ARENA does its homework it is unlikely is critical...
...The harsh criticism against the U.S...
...Guerrilla attacks on banks, and burning of harvests...
...6. Alfredo Cristiani, interview, Channel 12 TV, San Salvador, 6. Alfredo Cristiani, interview, Channel 12 TV, San Salvador, AprilApril 19, 1989 (transcript in FBIS, April 20, 1989...
...As proof he presented a pile of news clips he kept at the ready in his top desk drawer, of news clips he kept at the ready in his top desk drawer, each concerning a rebel leader whose parents were each concerning a rebel leader whose parents were members of the PDC.27 members of the PDC.(27) Overtures from ARENA may assuage the unrequited Overtures from ARENA may assuage the unrequited opportunism of certain Christian Democratic leaders...
...But the difference be the guerrillas to defend them...
...TheThe continued development of the Salvadoran revo continued development of the Salvadoran revolutionlution in the face of the U.S...
...Now,Now, deprived of virtually any foothold in the state deprived of virtually any foothold in the state apparatus,apparatus, the party can no longer count on control of the party can no longer count on control of patronage to hold itself together...
...1988) and Human Rights in El Salvador on the Eve of Watch, Sept...
...A full discussion of the developments surrounding the Demo full discussion of the developments surrounding the Democraticcratic Convergence will be presented in the forthcoming compan Convergence will be presented in the forthcoming companionion issue of NACLA's Report on the Americas...
...The ARENA government has already indicated it will move quickly to close down much ready indicated it will move quickly to close down much ofof the space in which the legal and semi legal Left the space in which the legal and semi legal Left operate.operate...
...7, 1988...
...Some observers argue that the military lacks the quality intelligence argue that the military lacks the quality intelligence needed to accurately target such operations...
...The "Guatemala" solution is a reference to the Guatemalan "Guatemala" solution is a reference to the Guatemalan militarymilitary offensive against leftist rebels in the early l980s in which offensive against leftist rebels in the early 1980s in which thousandsthousands of civilians were brutally murdered...
...bigger...
...major political, institutional, and military barriers...
...Before entering politics, he would commute in example...
...S Jackboot Democracy Jackboot Democracy 1. A1...
...Juan Rafael Bustillo of hardline ARENA supporter Gen...
...The correlation of forces will repression," he wrote...
...Instead, MAN met with could set the record straight...
...Col...
...de ARENA,"Proceso (San Salvador), No...
...span of three to five months...
...When the U.S...
...advisers...
...The hard choices on the Cristiani government...
...5. See Comision de Anhlisis y Documentacion del FMLN, "El 5. See Comisi6n de AnAlisis y Documentaci6n del FMLN, "El Salvador:Salvador: Evolucion de La Economia en 1988," Dec...
...Wars are cruel, and must be ended quickly...
...The options range from quietly failing to execute part of the options range from quietly failing to execute part of the current budget, to massive layoffs of state employees, to current budget, to massive layoffs of state employees, to devaluationdevaluation of the colon...
...yet another to protect main elec yet another to protect main electrical lines...
...Chico Merino, the bility of imposing a state of siege...
...JoaquIn Villalobos, Perspectiva de victoria y modelo revo 11...
...Traditionally, the electoral period may soon be tested...
...advised counterinsurgency in the face of the U.S...
...30.30...
...21...
...Cristiani, for his part, warned that "if urban violence continues, we must obvi warned that "if urban violence continues, we must obviously resort to legal measures," and discussed the possi ously resort to legal measures," and discussed the possibility of imposing a state of siege...
...Authors' interview, March 1985...
...But to base current political programs on such an eventuality is to make an political programs on such an eventuality is to make an unnecessary gamble...
...they dropped an atomic bomb, ended the World War II...
...But they would also offer it the revolutionary chain...
...26) The oligarchs in ARENA, some of whom consider The oligarchs in ARENA, some of whom consider the PDC a greater enemy than the FMLN, recoil at such the PDC a greater enemy than the FMLN, recoil at such a prospect...
...Adolfo Onicifero Blandon as chief of staff...
...To this must be added the more targeted sabotage: the sack this must be added the more targeted sabotage: the sackinging of coffee mills, destruction of bridges and railroads, of coffee mills, destruction of bridges and railroads, attacks on banks, and burning of harvests...
...And even if hotheads in the party thought it worth the risk, the Armed Forces has made it thought it worth the risk, the Armed Forces has made it clear that any moves which might jeopardize the aid it clear that any moves which might jeopardize the aid it receives would not be tolerated...
...The word "war" does not appear anywhere in the ARENA elec "war" does not appear anywhere in the ARENA electoral platform...
...Annual budget crises in recent years have forced the govern budget crises in recent years have forced the government into absurd bookkeeping shenanigans, selling ment into absurd bookkeeping shenanigans, selling bonds to itself (essentially decapitalizing certain state bonds to itself (essentially decapitalizing certain state institutions) to raise funds to cover soldiers' paychecks institutions) to raise funds to cover soldiers' paychecks inin the final quarter of the year a drastic move which the final quarter of the year a drastic move which reportedly could be necessary as early as mid summer reportedly could be necessary as early as mid summer this year...
...Thus, heavy U.S...
...The strategic counteroffensive will be discussed in depth in 13...
...As an example,ample, they cite the rather embarrassing case of election they cite the rather embarrassing case of election day,day, a moment the Armed Forces had known for months a moment the Armed Forces had known for months inin advance would see major guerrilla activity...
...Divisions friendly forces, and even within the party itself...
...Instead, the FMLN did the opposite, dispersing Instead, the FMLN did the opposite, dispersing its forces and hitting the military in some fifty four its forces and hitting the military in some fifty four separateseparate points around the country)9 points around the country...
...Ultimate victory will belong to the force that alone...
...I'm going to say something the Salvadoran revolution...
...Some disillusioned members of the PDC youth organization were among the founders of bers of the PDC youth organization were among the founders of some of the guerrilla organizations that comprise the FMLN...
...two of the three journalists killed during the elections...
...See Nightmare Revisited 1987 1988: Tenth Supplement to the Report on Human Rights in El Salvador (New York: Americas the Report on Human Rights in El Salvador (New York: Americas Watch, Sept...
...In(In)the country the countryside,side, this would essentially be the "total war" approach...
...Those Salvadoran of civilians were brutally murdered...
...The authors are indebted for discussion of these points to the working papers of the team on Conflicts and Alternatives for the working papers of the team on Conflicts and Alternatives for Peace in Central America, CRIES...
...However, documents sharply critical of the Tan However, documents sharply critical of the Tan dona'sdona's leadership have been circulated among the offi leadership have been circulated among the officercer corps...
...Discreet Discreet organizing within the military against what organizing within the military against what is viewed as Washington's "tying the hands of the is viewed as Washington's "tying the hands of the Armed Forces" has also been proceeding for some time...
...they allege "military deficiency, corruption, corps...
...where we went wrong in Miami...
...17.17...
...Since that time, with homemade and industrial artillery...
...These measures, taken as a whole, would pose grave These measures, taken as a whole, would pose grave difficulties to the urban Left, already the weakest link in difficulties to the urban Left, already the weakest link in the revolutionary chain...
...19, 1989 (transcript in FBIS, April 20, 1989...
...They look in rebels have yet to be finally defeated...
...If they actually bring their capital back to El Salvador and rebuild their estates, as capital back to El Salvador and rebuild their estates, as ARENAARENA hopes, they almost certainly will...
...For activists in the United States, on the other hand, For activists in the United States, on the other hand, the key point is that ARENA's package of uthan repression the key point is that ARENA's package of urban repression does not necessarily imply a transition to any "total does not necessarily imply a transition to any "total war" strategy...
...Armed Forces" has also been proceeding for some time...
...During one interview, an ARENA leader a prospect...
...After an April 1987 FMLN attack on June of last year...
...public relations campaign has been strongest...
...Contradictions may emerge, however, in actual practice...
...Contradictions may emerge, however, in actual markets...
...Whether or not D'Au buissonbuisson and Company bring a "total war" down upon and Company bring a "total war" down upon theirtheir compatriots, the ARENA project is profoundly compatriots, the ARENA project is profoundly undemocratic, even totalitarian...
...After the major Heroes de El Paralso operation in After the major Hiroes de El Paraisooperation in the province of Chalatenango in late April and early the province of Chalatenango in late April and early MayMay of last year, for example, Armed Forces spokesmen of last year, for example, Armed Forces spokesmen claimed to have thoroughly "disarticulated" rebel struc claimed to have thoroughly "disarticulated" rebel structures in the area...
...especially the critique by four U.S...
...Unable to take on the tanda system frontally, the States.'Unable to take on the tanda system frontally, the advisersadvisers have tried to make an end run around it by have tried to make an end run around it by creating a second promotion ladder via security forces creating a second promotion ladder via security forces such as the National Police and the National Guard...
...Part Two was published in American Perspectives (Summer 1989...
...The next issue of Report on the Americas will examine this in detail...
...ARENA would like to wage a total war but they have no one to foot the bill...
...The immediate loser would be the offi very short term...
...obstacle to economic recovery...
...We were really expecting something bigger...
...1988...
...This was reportedly offered in tional unity" government...
...1987...
...See NationalNational War College, "Insurgency in El Salvador," (Washington, War College, "Insurgency in El Salvador," (Washington, 1986), for further discussion of LIC in El Salvador...
...CivicCivic action funds, for example, which in theory should action funds, for example, which in theory should be closely tiedbe closely tied to the operational focus and rhythm of the to the operational focus and rhythm of the military advance of the Armed Forces, are now divided military advance of the Armed Forces, are now divided up equally among all fourteen departments and used in up equally among all fourteen departments and used in part as patronage favors dispensed by colonels to cro part as patronage favors dispensed by colonels to croniesnies in non conflictive zones.'7 in non conflictive zones.17 In response to the difficulties, the Armed Forces has In response to the difficulties, the Armed Forces has lowered its operational profile, assuming a strategically lowered its operational profile, assuming a strategically defensive posture...
...Currently it does not even approach the rule of thumbthumb 10 1 ratio of soldiers to guerrillas a successful 10 1 ratio of soldiers to guerrillas a successful counterinsurgency is said to require...
...Unionists, instead of disappearing by the hundreds, may be arrested and locked appearing by the hundreds, may be arrested and locked away for long terms on various "anti terrorist" away for long terms on various "anti terrorist" charges.2 charges...
...2.2...
...I N THE CITIES, WHERE THE REVOLUTION'S I presence is much weaker and daily life takes place (N THE CITIES, WHERE THE REVOLUTION'S)presence is much weaker and daily life takes place beneath the close surveillance of the state, the Armed beneath the close surveillance of the state, the Armed Forces and the ARENA government will have more Forces and the ARENA government will have more room for maneuver...
...The immediate loser would be the officer corps itself...
...FollowingFollowing its defeat in last year's legislative and mu its defeat in last year's legislative and municipalnicipal elections, the PDC split in an ugly fight in which elections, the PDC split in an ugly fight in which one functionary was murdered by the opposing faction one functionary was murdered by the opposing faction andand longtime party hack Julio Rey Prendes led most of longtime party hack Julio Rey Prendes led most of the PDC National Assembly deputies out of the party the PDC National Assembly deputies out of the party and into his new Authentic Christian Movement (MAC...
...In the final weeks of the campaign, key figures in the PDC were reported to the campaign, key figures in the PDC were reported to havehave made quiet arrangements for employment outside made quiet arrangements for employment outside the country...
...This unit, widelywidely regarded as the Armed Forces' best, actually did regarded as the Armed Forces' best, actually did engage in continuous and gruelling patrols...
...ARENA and the Armed Forces claimed the bombing was part of "a wave of violence by the FMLN...
...In order to avoid playing into the unnecessary gamble...
...Even the most desperate and recalcitrant rightist has noticed that it is not so easy to unleash rightist has noticed that it is not so easy to unleash repression," he wrote...
...TheThe ARENA challenge extends to supporters of the ARENA challenge extends to supporters of the Salvadoran Left in the United States and beyond, to all Salvadoran Left in the United States and beyond, to all those who have sought to make themselves heard for a those who have sought to make themselves heard for a moremore democratic El Salvador...
...Citing the "abominable" of will to win the war...
...For example, an operation may supposedly mobilize all the men in a operation may supposedly mobilize all the men in a particular unit, using all the firepower and logistical particular unit, using all the firepower and logistical resources on hand, and the central accounting office will resources on hand, and the central accounting office will receive a bill for the full amount...
...T HE SUMMER OF HE SUMMER OF 1989 FINDS EL SALVADOR 1989 FINDS EL SALVADOR dominated by two highly organized, deeply com dominated by two highly organized, deeply committed,mitted, and diametrically opposed political actors, and diametrically opposed political actors, ARENA and the FMLN...
...After an April 1987 FMLN attack on the Fourth Brigade barracks in El Paraiso, MAN pub the Fourth Brigade barracks in El Paraiso, MAN published a critique of the military's response under the lished a critique of the military's response under the heading:heading: "Massacre at El Paraiso: Lack of professional "Massacre at El Paraiso: Lack of professionalism andism and experience, lack of adequate military advice, or experience, lack of adequate military advice, or lacklack of will to win the war...
...In order to avoid playing into the hands of their adversaries, activists in the United States hands of their adversaries, activists in the United States would do better to change their focus from grisly num would do better to change their focus from grisly numbers games to the anti democratic content of the ARENA bers games to the anti democratic content of the ARENA program and the "legal" police state it is creating with program and the "legal" police state it is creating with U.S...
...No sooner were the words out of their mouths than FMLN forces launched a strategic assault mouths than FMLN forces launched a strategic assault on the Fifth of Novemberon the Fifth of November hydroelectric dam in Chalate hydroelectric dam in Chalate nango, an action in which the rebels claimed to have nango, an action in which the rebels claimed to have inflicted 123 casualties...
...While the Left's power to veto ARENA's hopes for military and economic success may ARENA's hopes for military and economic success may bebe assured, its ability to transform this power into a assured, its ability to transform this power into a popularpopular consensual resolution of the war will test its consensual resolution of the war will test its politicalpolitical skill and maturity...
...But he immediately added that the But he immediately added that the "stigma" of devaluation was due only to bad experi "stigma" of devaluation was due only to bad experiencesences with the PDC, and that, "accompanied by other with the PDC, and that, "accompanied by other measures," it could be "useful" and actually bring about measures," it could be "useful" and actually bring about positive results.6 positive results.(6) ConfrontedConfronted with such hard choices, ARENA plan with such hard choices, ARENA planners take the line of theners take the line of the proverbial economist on a desert proverbial economist on a desert island with a can of beans who, when asked how he island with a can of beans who, when asked how he proposedproposed to assuage his hunger, replied, "Easy, assume to assuage his hunger, replied, "Easy, assume a can opener...
...They look instead to Venezuela as a case in which an insurgency was actually stead to Venezuela as a case in which an insurgency was actually terminated, terminated...
...Working together, ARENA and the early 1980s...
...a fourth tions...
...There is warned one exasperated activist...
...ARENA economic advisers say they plan to consolidate these then sell them off...
...culties they face run deeper than the numbers indicate...
...against subversion...
...Everyone...
...al., CONARACONARA Impact Evaluation, Sept...
...A legal framework limiting freedom name of the state...
...1986), for further discussion of LIC in El Salvador...
...Whether or not D'Au democratic El Salvador...
...This is a frustrating mentality the Ameri cans bringcans bring here," Ochoa said of the highly touted "low here," Ochoa said of the highly touted "low intensity conflict" strategy pushed on the Armed Forces intensity conflict" strategy pushed on the Armed Forces byby the Embassy...
...In El Salvador, the term generally refers to the U.S...
...1988...
...One is institutional: The Armed Forces have outgrown the tanda institutional: The Armed Forces have outgrown the tanda system in which promotions occur on the basis of school system in which promotions occur on the basis of school class rather than merit...
...Any real involvement of ARENA's aggressive, highly ideological rank and file in govern aggressive, highly ideological rank and file in government attempts to close the urban political space would ment attempts to close the urban political space would risk driving former PDC supporters into coalition with risk driving former PDC supporters into coalition with the Left...
...Basin Initiative have had minimal impact...
...Even the most desperate and recalcitrant scenario...
...Advocates of special operations hope that disrupting the rhythm of the FMLN's offen hope that disrupting the rhythm of the FMLN's offensive this way could provide the Cristiani government sive this way could provide the Cristiani government room to consolidate and perhaps prepare the ground for room to consolidate and perhaps prepare the ground for more aggressive operations in the future...
...Many ofof the same points are made by a non FMLN source, Alexander the same points are made by a non FMLN source, Alexander Segovia,Segovia, "LImites y Dilemas de Ia PolItica EconOmica," in El "Limites y Dilemas de la Politica Econ6mica," in El Salvador: Guerra, PolItica y Paz (1979 1988) (San Salvador: CI Salvador: Guerra, Politica y Paz (1979 1988) (San Salvador: CI NAS/CRIES,NAS/CRIES, 1988...
...Even prior to the elections, leaders of base to look Left...
...The ARENA government has al room for maneuver...
...Estudio sobre la organizaci6n de la fuerza armada," anonymous mimeo, 1988...
...The rightists understand that neither they nor the The rightists understand that neither they nor the FMLN have the political or social weight to wield power FMLN have the political or social weight to wield power alone...
...against a "total war" strategy...
...Activists in the United States face a test of their own.own...
...See Nightmare Revisited 1 987 1 988: Tenth Supplement to 23...
...al., study commissioned by U.S.AID itself, Allan Austin et...
...They simply insist that their assumptions of decreasingtions of decreasing war related problems are valid, since war related problems are valid, since thethe ARENA government will without doubt gain the ARENA government will without doubt gain the upper hand in the conflict...
...backed UNOC labor confederation joined with the leftist UNTS unions in support of tion joined with the leftist UNTS unions in support of the FMLN's January peace proposal, it was a clear sign the FMLN's January peace proposal, it was a clear sign to rightists of the dangers that await...
...Peace in Central America, CRIES...
...ARENA...
...8, 1988...
...SeeSee especially the critique by four U.S...
...are many analyses of the decline of the LIC project...
...Santiago Echeverrfa, "Analisis coyuntural de los proyectos Santiago Echeverria, "Anilisis coyuntural de los proyectos politicos," politicos," Estudios Centroamericanos, No...
...But the difference between an agitational call to arms and a functional mili tween an agitational call to arms and a functional military strategy should not be underestimated...
...One obvious obstacle is the need to maintain a stable One obvious obstacle is the need to maintain a stable supplysupply of U.S...
...military military an anonymous paper written by a U.S...
...During one interview, an ARENA leader argued that the PDC was actually working hand in glove argued that the PDC was actually working hand in glove with the FMLN, and that the PDC's nationalization of with the FMLN, and that the PDC's nationalization of the banks and agricultural exports were part of a sinister the banks and agricultural exports were part of a sinister plan to create the state apparatus necessary for central plan to create the state apparatus necessary for central planning which would then be handed over to the FMLN planning which would then be handed over to the FMLN at the appropriate moment...
...The social democrats work above ground in terrain over whichover which ARENA had just won total control, and they ARENA had just won total control, and they are based in urban areas where the ideological impact of are based in urban areas where the ideological impact of ARENA'sARENAs public relations campaign has been strongest...
...A source close to ARENA strategists claims that FUSADES has drawn up memos strategists claims that FUSADES has drawn up memos callingcalling for the layoff of 45,000 public employees not for the layoff of 45,000 public employees not to balanceto balance the budget, but merely to maintain the deficit the budget, but merely to maintain the deficit atat last year's level...
...In the best of circumstances, the FUSADES hope of In the best of circumstances, the FUSADES hope of replicatingreplicating Chilean or Taiwanese style export led eco Chilean or Taiwanese style export led economicnomic growth in El Salvador would be dubious...
...The social democrats work above ground in terrain hard...
...Other cases involving Bustillo's forces can be found in 18...
...If they actually bring their by the Cristiani government...
...20, 1988, Research Triangle Impact Evaluation, Sept...
...After where real dual power exists, were not so worried...
...In fact, according to the source, such operations usually run at about 80% of the source, such operations usually run at about 80% of capacity with the difference in soldiers' pay, ammuni capacity with the difference in soldiers' pay, ammunition, food, and operating expenses going directly into tion, food, and operating expenses going directly into the pocket of the commanding officer...
...The next issue of Report on skill and maturity...
...UNOC leaders in fact conducted a poll of the membership 28...
...Divisions in the Armed Forces are already a major problem, though in the Armed Forces are already a major problem, though they have thus far been largely obscured from public they have thus far been largely obscured from public view...
...invented...
...We were really expecting something Col...
...rather, it fits perfectly into the Armed Forces' current framework for urban special operations...
...In the very short term the crunch will force somesome hard choices on the Cristiani government...
...1987...
...the Americas will examine this in detail...
...Emilio Ponce replaced Gen...
...Before entering politics, he would commute in his private helicopter from his family's coffee estate in San his private helicopter from his family's coffee estate in San Vicente to the modern San Salvador office where he Vicente to the modem San Salvador office where he managed a pharmaceutical firm...
...Ibid...
...I N LARGE AREAS OF THE COUNTRYSIDE, IN LARGE AREAS OF THE COUNTRYSIDE, the military strength and political authority of the the military strength and political authority of the revolution have at least as much presence as that of the revolution have at least as much presence as that of the state...
...T HIS MORE SOBER ASSESSMENT HIS MORE SOBER ASSESSMENT IS SHARED IS SHARED by the upper echelons of the FMLN leadership...
...This legalistic approach does not imply that political This legalistic approach does not imply that political torture and murder haye stopped in El Salvador...
...sands of a society in civil war...
...Movimiento Accion Nacional, "La Masacre de El ParaIso...
...Ochoa said that the Armed Forces needed to "continue its fight within the juridical Forces needed to "continue its fight within the juridical framework, which is why it's vital to give this game framework, which is why it's vital to give this game clear rules through additional laws...and form an inter clear rules through additional laws...and form an internal front to fight the FMLN...
...military specialistspecialist contracted independently by the Salvadoran contracted independently by the Salvadoran ArmedArmed Forces...
...Similarly, the image of Taiwan is frequently held up as an example: image of Taiwan is frequently held up as an example: Cristiani'sCristiani's 1988 visit to Taiwan followed on years of 1988 visit to Taiwan followed on years of warmwarm relations between the private sector and Taiwanese relations between the private sector and Taiwanese businessmen,businessmen, investors, and diplomats in El Salvador...
...Delivering on its promises of economic Delivering on its promises of economic recovery and peace, however, is another matter...
...F INALLY, THE ARENA LEADERSHIP MUST F INALLY, (THE ARENA LEADERSHIP MUST) seesee to the unity of its own forces, as the alliances of to the unity of its own forces, as the alliances of the electoral period may soon be tested...
...We are wondering what happened, political impact...
...In March, Chief of Staff Col...
...According to UNOC sources, there was considerable sentiment among the IJNOC hae fnr was considerable sentiment amone the UNOC hase for supporting the leftist Democratic Convergence instead of supporting (the leftist Democratic Convergence instead of)the PDC in the presidential elections.28 UNOC leaders the PDC in the presidential elections.(28)UNOC leaders were not openly hostile to the Convergence, but argued were not openly hostile to the Convergence, but argued that the time was not yet ripe for such a switch...
...Short of that, a conciliatorythat, a conciliatory ARENA line toward its arch rivals may ARENA line toward its arch rivals may encourageencourage Christian Democratic leaders to become a Christian Democratic leaders to become a "democratic" instead of confrontational opposition.26 "democratic" instead of confrontational opposition...
...every side and taking high casualties...
...The Armed Forces now finds itself in an exceed state...
...There is only one political power in El Salvador today and it is only one political power in El Salvador today and it is ARENA...
...responsibility for it...
...After an absence of several days whether for secret briefings an absence of several days whether for secret briefings or simply for vacation one underground figure made or simply for vacation one underground figure made contact to talk cheerfully about the "contradictions" of contact to talk cheerfully about the "contradictions" of ARENA, ARENA, the playing out of which the FMLN claims to the playing out of which the FMLN claims to see as the last act of the revolutionary drama.2 see as the last act of the revolutionary drama.(2) I N THEIR ECONOMIC PROGRAM IT APPEARS I N THEIR ECONOMIC PROGRAM IT APPEARS ARENA planners have come to believe their own ARENA planners have come to believe their own propaganda: that the economic crisis in El Salvador is propaganda: that the economic crisis in El Salvador is largely the result of government ineptitude, economic largely the result of government ineptitude, economic intervention and corruption...
...thousand...
...The form this repression might take, however, The form this repression might take, however, is critical...
...In 1983, a current operational levels for one month...
...On NovemberOn November 1 of last year, the day Ponce took the helm, 1 of last year, the day Ponce took the helm, FMLN commandos staged their boldest attack so far in FMLN commandos staged their boldest attack so far in thethe capital city, hitting the National Guard headquarters capital city, hitting the National Guard headquarters with homemade and industrial artillery...
...Cristiani, for his part, nal front to fight the FMLN...
...The Es tado Mayor (El Salvador's joint chiefs of staff) built its tado Mayor (El Salvador's joint chiefs of staff) built its defensive scheme around the capital city, assuming the defensive scheme around the capital city, assuming the rebelsrebels would go for a spectacular attack with maximum would go for a spectacular attack with maximum political impact...
...This is a frustrating mentality the Ameri an approach...
...The divisions revolve around the so called Tandona, the larger sions revolve around the so called Tandona, the larger than average military school class of 1966 which as than average military school class of 1966 which assumed control of key command posts last November sumed control of key command posts last November when Col...
...The losses incurred from the paros and regular electrical sabotage alone are from the paros and regular electrical sabotage alone are incalculable,incalculable, involving lost work days, missed produc involving lost work days, missed production deadlines, ruined perishable goods, and more...
...Joaquin Villalobos, Perspectivade victoria y modelo revo lucionario, (Ediciones Sistema Radio Venceremos, 1989...
...We are wondering what happened, why they did not carry out the orders they were given," why they did not carry out the orders they were given," saidsaid Col...
...Citing the "abominable" performance of the Armed Forces, MAN charged that performance of the Armed Forces, MAN charged that "either criminal complicity or unbelievable indifference "either criminal complicity or unbelievable indifference and incompetence"and incompetence" had allowed the Armed Forces lead had allowed the Armed Forces lead ership, and its "foreign advisers," to "fall into the ership, and its "foreign advisers," to "fall into the guerrilla trap of prolonged popular war...
...But these, as one analyst into large scale operations...
...Though the PDC received a re Christian Democrats...
...I N ADDITION TO THE ARMED FORCES, I ARENA must consolidate a new relationship with (N ADDITION TO THE ARMED FORCES,)ARENA must consolidate a new relationship with thethe other political forces on the Right, beginning with other political forces on the Right, beginning with thethe Christian Democrats...
...and finally Operacion Democracia to pro trical lines...
...The other dimension of the problem is military...
...Air force troops,troops, for example, were responsible for the deaths of for example, were responsible for the deaths of two of the three journalists killed during the elections...
...Any real involvement of ARENA's major opportunities...
...Forces' current framework for urban special operations...
...paidpaid advertisement, El Diario de Hoy (San Salvador), April 8, advertisement, El Diario de Hoy (San Salvador), April 8, 1987...
...Even slight progress on these fronts will not be easy...
...The AmericanAmerican objective is not victory but stalemate," thun objective is not victory but stalemate," thundered Jordan...
...The Armed Forces now finds itself in an exceedingly defensive posture vis a vis the FMLN, even more ingly defensive posture vis a vis the FMLN, even more pronouncedpronounced since the beginning of the FMLN's "strate since the beginning of the FMLN's "strategic counteroffensive" in January l989) Simply to hold gic counteroffensive" in January 1989.'" Simply to hold the March elections, the military had to undertake exten the March elections, the military had to undertake extensive defensive operations...
...During the reuniones de acercamiento, army officers During the reuniones de acercamiento,army officers startled the areneros by admitting that in the case of an startled the areneros by admitting that in the case of an aid cut off, the Armed Forces could only function at aid cut off, the Armed Forces could only function at current ooerational levels for one month...
...Officers use year...
...Sweeping predictions that the beginning of the ARENA government will coincide with beginning of the ARENA government will coincide with a sharp increase in death squad style repression could a sharp increase in death squad style repression could well backfire...
...Juan Rafael Bustillo, that officer is air force chief Gen...
...Those closer to the FMLN, on the other hand, who Those closer to the FMLN, on the other hand, who have always worked outside the margins of Salvadoran have always worked outside the margins of Salvadoran legality,legality, and whose strength has been in the countryside and whose strength has been in the countryside where real dual power exists, were not so worried...
...The repression, which will certainly close well backfire...
...War or no, historic(AFTERMATH OF) right wing victory or no, it was Holy Week in Central Amer wing victory or no, it was Holy Week in Central Amer ica and Salvadorans, like everyone else, were on their ica and Salvadorans, like everyone else, were on their way to the beach...
...A first test will come with the privatization of the banking system, nationalized under the U.S...
...Juan Orlando Zepeda, who until recently commanded the troops in the capital, said, "Up to now, commanded the troops in the capital, said, "Up to now, special operations were mostly infiltration into [guerrilla] special operations were mostly infiltration into [guerrilla] zones, hand to hand combat, ambushes...
...The FMLN's display during the end of the fighting...
...AtrocitiesAtrocities similar to those committed earlier would al similar to those committed earlier would almost certainly result, since distinguishing the mainline most certainly result, since distinguishing the mainline FMLNFMLN forces from everyone else in the countryside is forces from everyone else in the countryside is notnot so easy, particularly for an army being harassed so easy, particularly for an army being harassed fromfrom every side and taking high casualties...
...And as Cristiani's advisers have certainly warned him, the recessionary advisers have certainly warned him, the recessionary economic measures to whicheconomic measures to which he is committed will be felt he is committed will be felt primarily in the urban centers, making the military's task, primarily in the urban centers, making the military's task, in turn, even more delicate...
...But, as the source explained, "ii, on paper, [the commanding officer] is explained, "If, on paper, [the commanding officer] is already fighting at 100%, then any increases will come already fighting at 100%, then any increases will come directly out of his profit margin...
...sive defensive operations...
...The High Command hopes that carefully targeted The High Command hopes that carefully targeted special operations, while not defeating the FMLN, will special operations, while not defeating the FMLN, will keep the enemy off balance and prevent the accumula keep the enemy off balance and prevent the accumulation of sufficient social and military force to pull off an tion of sufficient social and military force to pull off an insurrection.insurrection...
...Instead, with a great deal of noise and smoke, the operations take place for a week, noise and smoke, the operations take place for a week, costcost a certain amount of money (a percentage of which a certain amount of money (a percentage of which cancan be skimmed off, depending on the number of troops be skimmed off, depending on the number of troops deployed)deployed) and result in some press releases about impor and result in some press releases about important battlestant battles against subversion...
...Though the PDC received a respectablespectable 338,369 votes, or 36% of the total, the diffi 338,369 votes, or 36% of the total, the difficulties they face run deeper than the numbers indicate...
...For the FMLN's analysis of what happened, see interview For the FMLN's analysis of what happened, see interview with Francisco Jovel in the forthcoming companion issue of NA with Francisco Jovel in the forthcoming companion issue of NA CLA's Report on the Americas...
...The Salvadoran military has been badly dered Jordan...
...The Armed Forces is alreadyalready having difficulty sustaining its manpower base having difficulty sustaining its manpower base with its current operational profile one of the reasons with its current operational profile one of the reasons whywhy it has been steadily seeking an expansion of the it has been steadily seeking an expansion of the draft...
...hopes, they almost certainly will...
...480 (Oct...
...Estudios Centroamericanos,No...
...For example, an operations described above...
...Since that time, the military situation has steadily deteriorated, as the the military situation has steadily deteriorated, as the FMLNFMLN moved into its strategic counteroffensive...
...As Villalobos notes, "Duarte carried out a total war in his first two years (1980 and 1981), out a total war in his first two years (1980 and 1981), killed 50,000 Salvadorans and the Reagan Administra killed 50,000 Salvadorans and the Reagan Administration paid for it...
...According to a source with direct access to the data, the Armed Forces have been "running at to the data, the Armed Forces have been "running at 100%100% capacity on capacity on paper"paper" for for the lastthe last year...
...The word been experienced in the last few years...
...This unit, Atlacatl Battalion during a week of patrols...
...In it, the pseudonymous "Robert Jor Forces...
...Marine, proposed an anti terrorist law that would be applied to "those who foment violence, among would be applied to "those who foment violence, among them many foreigners...
...Furthermore, over the past four years the FMLN has Furthermore, over the past four years the FMLN has developeddeveloped an impressive capacity for harassing concen an impressive capacity for harassing concentrationstrations of troops in movement, and any major increase of troops in movement, and any major increase inin real large scale operations would likely result in an real large scale operations would likely result in an unacceptablyunacceptably high casualty rate...
...CLA's Report on the Americas...
...Guerrilla caused electrical blackouts have become such a com caused electrical blackouts have become such a commonplacemonplace that Tic Tac, "the national liquor of El Sal that Tic Tac, "the national liquor of El Sal vador,"vador," now offers a free pocket flashlight with the now offers a free pocket flashlight with the purchase of each bottle...
...Since operations which commanding officer's files...
...W HILE CONFRONTING THE LEFT WILL BE WARENAs most difficult challenge, potentially ARENA's(HILE CONFRONTING THE LEFT WILL BE)most difficult challenge, potentially serious problems also lie ahead among the camp of serious problems also lie ahead among the camp of friendly forces, and even within the party itself...
...The crackdown will be carried out by the state in the The crackdown will be carried out by the state in the name of the state...
...The Armed Forces is high casualty rate...
...As an ex needed to accurately target such operations...
...According to Cristiani, uncertainty about investment is due more to arbitrary acts certainty about investment is due more to arbitrary acts by the government "which have weakened the rights of by the government "which have weakened the rights of property," than to the war itself.3 "Despite the con property," than to the war itself.(3)"Despite the conflict,"flict," said Cristiani, "we're convinced that a basis ex said Cristiani, "we're convinced that a basis exists for reversing the downslide of the economy that's ists for reversing the downslide of the economy that's been experienced in the last few years...
...Robert Jordan, "AGIL, APIA, y CBI en El Salvador," 10...
...of the frustrated PDC base to the Left...
...We will not discuss here all the various interpretations of 15...
...The problem with calling for ''total war'' is that it implies that all units calling for "total war" is that it implies that all units must do more to fight subversion...
...A devastating critique of these programs may be found in a A devastating critique of these programs may be found in a recentrecent study commissioned by U.S.AID itself, Allan Austin et...
...It is highly unlikely that the FMLN will give Cristiani a It is highly unlikely that the FMLN will give Cristiani a honeymoon.honeymoon...
...anonymous mimeo, 1988...
...militarytary advisers and the officers close to them in the period advisers and the officers close to them in the period leading up to the changeover in the High Command in leading up to the changeover in the High Command in June of last year...
...IV, No...
...At least on paper, the export platform program could At least on paper, the export platform program could smooth over the traditional fault line, as both agrarian smooth over the traditional fault line, as both agrarian and industrial capital would be oriented toward external and industrial capital would be oriented toward external markets...
...a fourth to protect water trucks;to protect water trucks...
...In a by the upper echelons of the FMLN leadership...
...the ladder who see their own futures constrained...
...The party has unified the bourgeoisie, the most reactionary popular sectors, and the geoisie, the most reactionary popular sectors, and the statestate apparatus unified them both organizationally and apparatus unified them both organizationally and ideologically.ideologically...
...Half of the country's ten banks are now essentially bankrupt...
...These analysts, if not accepting the ARENA program at These analysts, if not accepting the ARENA program at face value, nevertheless gave credence to the possibility face value, nevertheless gave credence to the possibility that ARENA could become a real threat to the future of that ARENA could become a real threat to the future of the Salvadoran revolution...
...S New lines in the struggle are now being drawn...
...military what "low intensity conflict" really means...
...These plans, he stressed, were above and beyond the norm wherein "75 to 80% of our forces and beyond the norm wherein "75 to 80% of our forces are permanently deployed in defensive tasks...
...sible for the bombing...
...al., "American Military Policy in Small Wars: The et...
...Even prior to the elections, leaders of the U.S...
...this would essentially be the "total war" approach...
...Its chances for consolidation depend in part on whether the bipartisan U.S...
...Both have adopted highly Both have adopted highly reactive postures, designed more to avoid worst case reactive postures, designed more to avoid worst case scenarios than achieve clearly defined objectives...
...modernization of the country's archaic legal system...
...Bland6n as chief of staff...
...opportunism of certain Christian Democratic leaders...
...Intries...
...In 1983, a similar estimate gave the military an unsupported life similar estimate gave the military an unsupported lifespan of three to five months...
...The Es advance would see major guerrilla activity...
...12 The consider but they have no one to foot the bill...
...Villalobos, "Perspectiva de victoria...
...14.14...
...advised counterinsurgency warwar has left Washington and the Armed Forces without has left Washington and the Armed Forces without even a medium term strategy.even a medium term strategy...
...private sector...
...The problem with the pocket of the commanding officer...
...One result of the crunch young officers expect to climb...
...To a lesser extent, ARENA will have to deal with the PCN, 25...
...The most direct way the war affects the economy is The most direct way the war affects the economy is through FMLN sabotage, which has reached proportions through FMLN sabotage, which has reached proportions which could have repercussions lasting well beyond the which could have repercussions lasting well beyond the end of the fighting...
...AndAnd Chile, the case which most fascinates Cristiani, has Chile, the case which most fascinates Cristiani, has vast natural resources, a much more developed and di vast natural resources, a much more developed and diverse industrial base and, most importantly, no FMLN...
...more aggressive operations in the future...
...backed junta in 1980...
...There are numerous military arguments against this There are numerous military arguments against this minorityminority line, none of which will lose their validity with line, none of which will lose their validity with the arrival of the Cristiani government...
...Ochoa said that the Armed them many foreigners...
...Instead, MAN met with hardline ARENA supporter Gen...
...ButBut there is certainly no military reason to insist that there is certainly no military reason to insist that victory is not possible...
...Human Rights Department...
...that the time was not yet ripe for such a switch...
...lieutenant colonels, A.J...
...Those Salvadoran officersofficers who oppose the total war line point out, however, that the who oppose the total war line point out, however, that the GuatemalanGuatemalan rebels have yet to be finally defeated...
...OneOne probableprobable scenario involves ARENA opening its scenario involves ARENA opening its cabinet to selected Christian Democrats in a sort of "na cabinet to selected Christian Democrats in a sort of "national unity" government...
...backed the banking system, nationalized under the U.S...
...CINAS CRIES, El Salvador: Guerra, Politica y Paz (1979 1988...
...Acci6n Nacional, "La Masacre de El Paraiso...
...criticisms of the air force only...
...policy towards human rights atrocities on the policy towards human rights atrocities on the part of "friendly" regimes, however, has historically part of "friendly" regimes, however, has historically beenbeen quite flexible (as, for example, with Guatemala quite flexible (as, for example, with Guatemala itself);itself...
...If we cannot win here, where can we...
...But, as the source must do more to fight subversion...
...According to Cristiani, un intervention and corruption...
...Juan Rafael Bustillo of the air force and, in a provocative slap at Blandon, pub the air force and, in a provocative slap at Bland6n, published a second communique withdrawing their previous lished a second communique withdrawing their previous criticisms of the air force only...
...Salvador solidarity movement off to a running start...
...As one officer said of receives would not be tolerated...
...advisers...
...opener...
...Col...
...theythey also disappeared and tortured to death schoolteacher also disappeared and tortured to death schoolteacher Miguel Angel Lazo in February 1989...
...Though close to the military noted, are largely "fake...
...verse industrial base and, most importantly, no FMLN...
...managed a pharmaceutical firm...
...Simply put, with the quadrupling class rather than merit...
...351, (Sept...
...With this timid, frightened, cowardly attitudeattitude we can't do anything...
...As the country shut itself down for vacation, only a diehard group of Left analysts working vacation, only a diehard group of Left analysts working with the Democraticwith the Democratic Convergence a coalition of social Convergence a coalition of social democratic politicians allied with the FMLN who had democratic politicians allied with the FMLN who had run in the elections but done exceedingly poorly run in the elections but done exceedingly poorly stayedstayed in the capital, meeting in the sweltering heat to do in the capital, meeting in the sweltering heat to do post mortems.t post mortems...
...And as Cristianis to rightists of the dangers that await...
...After their victory,After their victory, ARENA leaders hastened to deny ARENA leaders hastened to deny theythey had been contemplating such layoffs and Cristiani had been contemplating such layoffs and Cristiani denieddenied that there would be a devaluation during his that there would be a devaluation during his administration.administration...
...These plans, he stressed, were above centers...
...See "The Nerve Center...
...One 4. Asociaci6n Cafetalera de El Salvador, Dec...
...Robert Jordan, "AGIL, APIA, y CBI en El Salvador," mimeo,mimeo, undated...
...According to one source with close army ties, they view...
...goods...
...economy is China...
...exile, first to France and then to Washington...
...Wars are cruel, and must we can't do anything...
...According to one source with close army ties, they constituteas serious a concern to the current military lead constituteas serious a concern to the current military leadership as do recent levels of FMLN operations...
...When Vice President elect Merino complained in late April Vice President elect Merino complained in late April about press reports of "the growing military power of about press reports of "the growing military power of the FMLN," he was responding to the widespread per the FMLN," he was responding to the widespread perception among journalists and citizens alike that the ception among journalists and citizens alike that the FMLN is operating more boldly and freely than ever FMLN is operating more boldly and freely than ever before...
...According to FMLN figures, some 20% of the 1988 According to FMLN figures, some 20% of the 1988 cotton crop and close to 10% of the coffee harvest was cotton crop and close to 10% of the coffee harvest was lost directly to rebel sabotage.5 lost directly to rebel sabotage.' The national budget is squeezed between falling ex The national budget is squeezed between falling export revenues and the high cost of the war...
...quintal is equivalent to 100 kilograms...
...An lucionario, (Ediciones Sistema Radio Venceremos, 1989...
...investors, and diplomats in El Salvador...
...See "A Job For Everyone...
...purchase of each bottle...
...1988...
...The corrupt and down hard on legal opposition groups...
...Bacevich,Bacevich, et...
...No sooner were the words out of their tures in the area...
...Half of the country's ten banks are now junta in 1980...
...7, 1988...
...According to one officer who has worked According to one officer who has worked on planning them, "Special operations don't win wars, on planning them, "Special operations don't win wars, but they can impede negative outcomes, and complicate but they can impede negative outcomes, and complicate the definition of a situation that would otherwise be the definition of a situation that would otherwise be more favorable to the enemy above all by making the more favorable to the enemy above all by making the enemy lose initiative...
...To think otherwise is to assume the can To think otherwise is to assume the can opener...
...Juan Orlando Zepeda, who until recently control...
...Now, he sug zones, hand to hand combat, ambushes...
...ARENA, in contrast, has rebuilt its organization from ARENA, in contrast, has rebuilt its organization from the defeats of 1984 and 1985, and won the 1989 elec the defeats of 1984 and 1985, and won the 1989 electionstions with a clear vision of where it wants to lead Salva with a clear vision of where it wants to lead Salva doran society...
...Simply put, with the quadrupling of the size of the army that accompanied the war over of the size of the army that accompanied the war over the last decade, the number of officers required to com the last decade, the number of officers required to command this force in the field has grown rapidly while the mand this force in the field has grown rapidly while the number of posts at the top of the Armed Forces hierar number of posts at the top of the Armed Forces hierarchy has remained roughly the same...
...2)The considerable care and effort ARENA has put into selling its new, able care and effort ARENA has put into selling its new, "moderate""moderate" image in the person of Freddy Cristiani image in the person of Freddy Cristiani indicatesindicates how much the North Americans are weighing how much the North Americans are weighing on the party's mind...
...they dropped an atomic bomb, ended the conflictconflict and saved millions of lives.' ' and saved millions of lives...
...According to a source with direct access cer corps itself...
...The Tandona based its push for early promotions on a en Tandona based its push for early promotions on a cri tiquetique of the way previous officers were handling the war...
...dation depend in part on whether the bipartisan U.S...
...Juan Rafael Bustillo, that favors going on the strategic offensive and attacking the favors going on the strategic offensive and attacking the mainlinemainline FMLN forces more aggressively with small FMLN forces more aggressively with small units...
...Marine, proposed an anti terrorist law that former U.S...
...another operation to protect public phones...
...Actual im tary strategy should not be underestimated...
...ARENA could make its highly ideological offensive...
...Actual implementation of a "total war" would have to overcome plementation of a "total war" would have to overcome major political, institutional, and military barriers...
...The FMLN's display during the March elections, when all transportation came to a stand March elections, when all transportation came to a standstill and much of the country was without electricity and still and much of the country was without electricity and even water for the better part of a week, showed the even water for the better part of a week, showed the rebels' capacity to increase the already high daily dose rebels' capacity to increase the already high daily dose of sabotage to truly traumatic levels...
...Instead, with a great deal of FMLN fighters are rare...
...The authors are indebted for discussion of these points to 26...
...military advisers, and the fact that it is still in place after a full decade of "profes fact that it is still in place after a full decade of "professionalization" is a glaring embarrassment for the United sionalization" is a glaring embarrassment for the United States...
...While publicly the counterinsurgency is said to require...
...There are many analyses of the decline of the LIC project...
...See social reforms along with a specific set of military tactics...
...Emilio Ponce replaced Gen...
...During another operation in the fall of 1987, one of During another operation in the fall of 1987, one of the authors accompanied Yankee Company of the elite the authors accompanied Yankee Company of the elite Atlacatl Battalion during a week of patrols...
...But in seven engage in continuous and gruelling patrols...
...4 (April 1989), for examples of this approach...
...Some disillusioned mem 27...
...scenarios than achieve clearly defined objectives...
...Tandona itself...
...One quintal is equivalent to 100 kilograms...
...Adolfo Bland6n publicly asked MAN to identify itself and meet with him so he asked MAN to identify itself and meet with him so he could set the record straight...
...backed UNOC labor confedera the Left...
...In the Salvadoran system have a "right" to expect them...
...At the same time, it has put even greatergreater emphasis on offensive special operations, a emphasis on offensive special operations, a loosely usedloosely used term which includes everything from dis term which includes everything from disruptingrupting the urban popular movement or disappearing the urban popular movement or disappearing key activists to long range patrols in FMLN zones of key activists to long range patrols in FMLN zones of control...
...The blistering attack, including allegations of corruption and treason, attack, including allegations of corruption and treason, concluded with MAN's slogan: "Enough talking, it's concluded with MAN's slogan: "Enough talking, it's time to act!''9 time to act!' ' MANMAN was also involved in circulating within the was also involved in circulating within the military an anonymous paper written by a U.S...
...If ARENA does its homework it is unlikely that "death squad" activity will approach the level of that "death squad" activity will approach the level of thethe early 1980s...
...Since operations which incur a high level of casualties are viewed by superiors incur a high level of casualties are viewed by superiors as indicators of poor local intelligence and thus not as indicators of poor local intelligence and thus not helpfulhelpful to career advancement, serious encounters with to career advancement, serious encounters with FMLN fighters are rare...
...In 1988 the total coffee harvest, El Salva dor's biggest source of hard currency, fell below two dor's biggest source of hard currency, fell below two million quintales for the first time in thirty years.4 The million quintales for the first time in thirty years.(4)The situation with cotton is even worse: The 1988 harvest situation with cotton is even worse: The 1988 harvest fell an estimated 22% from its already severely reduced fell an estimated 22% from its already severely reduced 19871987 level...
...1988...
...before...
...is likely...
...18 Miguel Angel Lazo in February 1989...
...military advisers, and the a top priority for U.S...
...Officers use an accounting system ingeniously designed to maximize an accounting system ingeniously designed to maximize the possibilities for graft while reducing the likelihood the possibilities for graft while reducing the likelihood of costly confrontations with the FMLN, resulting in the of costly confrontations with the FMLN, resulting in the "fake""fake" operations described above...
...But to this must be added the limits embed But to this must be added the limits embeddedded in the actual balance of forces in El Salvador: insti in the actual balance of forces in El Salvador: institutional and operational considerations that mitigate tutional and operational considerations that mitigate against a "total war" strategy...
...When moved into its strategic counteroffensive...
...Finally, with current levels of economic and military Finally, with current levels of economic and military aid, increased operations are sustainable only over the aid, increased operations are sustainable only over the very short term...
...approach...
...Currently it does not even approach the rule of draft...
...ARENA Deputy Ricardo Alvar legislative response...
...economy is saddledsaddled with an enormous trade deficit, and despite all with an enormous trade deficit, and despite all the rhetoric about stopping red expansion in Central the rhetoric about stopping red expansion in Central America, the actual concessions granted in the ill fated America, the actual concessions granted in the ill fated CaribbeanCaribbean Basin Initiative have had minimal impact...
...The "four tigers" of the Pacific rim (Taiwan, South Korea, "four tigers" of the Pacific rim (Taiwan, South Korea, HongHong Kong and Singapore) based their industrialization Kong and Singapore) based their industrialization strategies on special trade advantages conceded by the strategies on special trade advantages conceded by the United States in view of their frontline position vis a vis United States in view of their frontline position vis a vis communistcommunist China...
...The corrupt and ineffectualineffectual Ministry of Culture and Communications set Ministry of Culture and Communications set up by the PDC could be replaced by the powerful up by the PDC could be replaced by the powerful ARENA propaganda machine to mount a large scale ARENA propaganda machine to mount a large scale ideological offensive...
...8. Authors' interview, Sept...
...On the surface it would appear that ARENA is play On the surface it would appear that ARENA is playing from a strong hand...
...The blistering guerrilla trap of prolonged popular war...
...lieutenant colonels, A.J...
...political impact of the repression which has never ceased...
...Though highly publicized, with large numbers of troops and highly publicized, with large numbers of troops and impressive levels of weaponry, they are carried out in impressive levels of weaponry, they are carried out in order to be carried out and in order to be written up in order to be carried out and in order to be written up in thethe commanding officer's files...
...I'm going to say something startling,"startling," warned one exasperated activist...
...351, (Sept...
...In El Salvador, the term generally refers to the U.S...
...ARENA Deputy Ricardo Alvar enga Valdivieso, the president of the Assembly and a enga Valdivieso, the president of the Assembly and a former U.S...
...TheThe Tandona's difficulties have fueled steady ru Tandona's difficulties have fueled steady rumors about grumbling in the ranks and the possibilities mors about grumbling in the ranks and the possibilities ofof an "internal coup...
...There is, without doubt, good reason for making this There is, without doubt, good reason for making this claim...
...Thus, heavy U.S...
...If the FMLN's hoped for insurrection begins to as If the FMLN's hoped for insurrection begins to assume a more tangible, threatening form, it is possible sume a more tangible, threatening form, it is possible that the "total war" card could be played by an Armed that the "total war" card could be played by an Armed Forces which saw no other option...
...We need a change of military strategy in order to units...
...In it, the pseudonymous "Robert Jor dan"dan" railed against "low intensity conflict" and lev railed against "low intensity conflict" and leveledeled harsh criticism against the U.S...
...The divi ership as do recent levels of FMLN operations...
...another operation to protect public phones...
...In the very short term the crunch will force this year...
...Even recovery and peace, however, is another matter...
...last year's level...
...4 (April 1989), for examples of this Chronology," Vol...
...1988...
...Doing away with the tanda promotion system has Doing away with the tanda promotion system has beenbeen a top priority for U.S...
...they are torture and murder have stopped in El Salvador...
...they are increasing, and will likely increase even more under a increasing, and will likely increase even more under a Cristiani government.23 But this is not the "total war" Cristiani government.(23)But this is not the "total war" that would produce widespread revulsion in the United that would produce widespread revulsion in the United States similar to that which in the early 1980s got the El States similar to that which in the early 1980s got the El Salvador solidarity movement off to a running start...
...Today, however, the U.S...
...Authors' interview, March 1989...
...And even if hotheads in the party on the party's mind...
...In a recent article, FMLN Commander JoaquIn Villalobos recent article, FMLN Commander Joaquin Villalobos categorically dismissed the "phantom" of the total war categorically dismissed the "phantom" of the total war scenario...
...3.3...
...ARENAARENA economists like to talk about "the Chilean economists like to talk about "the Chilean miracle"miracle" and the Chilean government has returned the and the Chilean government has returned the affection,affection, taking out several page paid advertisements in taking out several page paid advertisements in daily papers owned by ARENA backers...
...According to UNOC sources, there against their land...
...To tion deadlines, ruined perishable goods, and more...
...Juan H6ctor Vidal at FUSADESFUSADES even suggested during an interview that the even suggested during an interview that the effect ofeffect of paros and blackouts could be minimized if new paros and blackouts could be minimized if new capital investment is concentrated in the production of capital investment is concentrated in the production of non perishablenon perishable goods...
...New lines in the struggle are now being drawn...
...Its chances for consoli undemocratic, even totalitarian...
...The growth in El Salvador would be dubious...
...funds...
...Adolfo Blandon publicly Then Chief of Staff Gen...
...Zepeda...
...In cause all our big units are doing is being worn away...
...El Salvador...
...Yet the war, by any measure, is the single largestlargest obstacle to economic recovery...
...WithWith the economic crisis of the import substitution the economic crisis of the import substitution modelmodel in the 1970s, and the oligarchs' political debacle in the 1970s, and the oligarchs' political debacle in 1979 and after, "a relative unanimity has been reached in 1979 and after, "a relative unanimity has been reached about the need to overcome the limits of import substi about the need to overcome the limits of import substitution and look for a new, more aggressive integration tution and look for a new, more aggressive integration into the world market...along the lines proposed by into the world market...along the lines proposed by FUSADES," according to one member of a regional FUSADES," according to one member of a regional team studying Central American economic trends.3 team studying Central American economic trends.(3)" "FUSADES has achieved intellectual hegemony in the "FUSADES has achieved intellectual hegemony in the private sector...
...the country...
...rather, it fits perfectly into the Armed war" strategy...
...A source close to ARENA of the col6n...
...mili (MAN), which began publicly criticizing the U.S...
...some of the guerrilla organizations that comprise the FMLN...
...See El Rescate Human Rights Department, "El Salvador 21...
...ARENA and the Armed Forces claimed the bombing was 22...
...7. The7...
...U.S.U.S...
...they allege "military deficiency, corruption, disciplinarydisciplinary problems, irresponsibility, and inexperi problems, irresponsibility, and inexperience," among other failings.24 After the Tandona's pro ence," among other failings.2(4)After the Tandona's promotion, unusual meetings were held between ex Chief motion, unusual meetings were held between ex Chief of Staff Blandon and middle level officers to discuss of Staff Bland6n and middle level officers to discuss charges against the Tandona, though thus far the only charges against the Tandona, though thus far the only tangible result has been the banishment of BlandOn into tangible result has been the banishment of Bland6n into diplomaticdiplomatic exile, first to France and then to Washington...
...E VEN BEFORE THE RESULTS OF THE ELEC E VEN BEFORE THE RESULTS OF THE ELECtions were announced, sectors of the popular move tions were announced, sectors of the popular movement in El Salvador, as well their supporters in the ment in El Salvador, as well their supporters in the UnitedUnited States, began to warn that ARENA, once in States, began to warn that ARENA, once in power, would launch a "total war" against the Left, power, would launch a "total war" against the Left, interpretedinterpreted as a sort of "Guatemala solution,"7 or a as a sort of "Guatemala solution," (7)or a return to the bloody terror of the early I 980s when return to the bloody terror of the early 1980s when hundredshundreds of civilians were murdered by death squads of civilians were murdered by death squads eacheach month, and army soldiers committed wholesale month, and army soldiers committed wholesale massacres of guerrillamassacres of guerrilla sympathizers in the mountains...
...Armed Forces and Embassy spokespeople adamantly deny any substance to these spokespeople adamantly deny any substance to these rumors.rumors...
...The FMLN denied any involvementinvolvement in the attack and a mysterious new self styled ultra in the attack and a mysterious new self styled ultra Right commando unit, the "Gerardo Barrios Civic Front," took Right commando unit, the "Gerardo Barrios Civic Front," took responsibility for it...
...Ultimate victory will belong to the force that builds the most effectivebuilds the most effective coalition, uniting allies around coalition, uniting allies around a common agenda and exacerbating contradictions a common agenda and exacerbating contradictions within the enemy camp...
...such as the National Police and the National Guard...
...A first test will come with the privatization of practice...
...and finally Operaci6n Democracia to protect votingtect voting centers...
...With this timid, frightened, cowardly the Embassy...
...As Villalobos notes, "Duarte carried of U.S...
...Nevertheless,Nevertheless, the United States is unlikely to aban the United States is unlikely to abandon the party in which it invested such huge political don the party in which it invested such huge political capital for a full decade...
...as one U.S...
...Adolfo OnicIfero when Col...
...In addition to D'Aubuisson's notorious connection to the rampages of the early 1980s, Ochoa, among tion to the rampages of the early 1980s, Ochoa, among others, has been not so subtly pressing for precisely such others, has been not so subtly pressing for precisely such an approach...
...Many Evoluci6n de la Economfa en 1988," Dec...
...slight progress on these fronts will not be easy...
...That's what the United States did in be ended quickly...
...In 1988 the total coffee harvest, El Salva cotton belt...
...Chico Merino, the aggrieved party, brought a lawsuit against members of aggrieved party, brought a lawsuit against members of what he alleged was a "cell of the FPL FMLN" respon what he alleged was a "cell of the FPL FMLN" responsible for the bombing...
...In the Salvadoran system this is a major consideration, since the graft to which an this is a major consideration, since the graft to which an officer has access is an essential part of the career ladder officer has access is an essential part of the career ladder young officers expect to climb...
...PerhapsPerhaps unsurprisingly, ARENA's victory hit them unsurprisingly, ARENA's victory hit them hard...
...Traditionally, two poles have been dominant in Salvadoran capital: the two poles have been dominant in Salvadoran capital: the landed oligarchy involved primarily in the export of landed oligarchy involved primarily in the export of cash crops, and an industrializing bourgeoisie organized cash crops, and an industrializing bourgeoisie organized aroundaround the development of import substitution indus the development of import substitution industries...
...The country, which made more than S100 level...
...He described Duarte and the PDC as "the greater ARENA victory...
...An EnglishEnglish version of Part One of this work is forthcoming in Latin version of Part One of this work is forthcoming in Latin American Perspectives (Summer 1989...
...12.12...
...Activists in the United States face a test of their ment...
...The Salvadoran military has been badly treated,treated, trained, and equipped by its American mentors...
...backed UNOC labor confederation, whose ru the U.S...
...1988...
...Institute...
...Most importantly, these measures can be imple Most importantly, these measures can be implemented under legal cover...
...IV, No...
...14 are permanently deployed in defensive tasks...
...Short of but rejected by the PDC leadership...
...cotton to meet the demand of its own textile industry...
...He described Duarte and the PDC as "the greater evil,"evil," arguing that ARENA would be less adept at minimizing the arguing that ARENA would be less adept at minimizing the political impact of the repression which has never ceased...
...Even before the elections, JoaquIn Villalobos of the FMLN Even before the elections, Joaquin Villalobos of the FMLN GeneralGeneral Command appeared to welcome the possibility of an Command appeared to welcome the possibility of an ARENA victory...
...One result of the crunch is that the Tandona, which successfully agitated for its is that the Tandona, which successfully agitated for its own promotion ahead of the normal schedule, is already own promotion ahead of the normal schedule, is already under pressure from middle level officials further down under pressure from middle level officials further down the ladder who see their own futures constrained...
...In fact, according to receive a bill for the full amount...
...consensus that has sustained the war for so long can be consensus that has sustained the war for so long can be transferred from Duarte to the new ARENA govern transferred from Duarte to the new ARENA government...
...doran society...
...CINAS CRIES, El Salvador: Guerra, PolItica y Paz (1979 29...
...8. Authors' interview, Sept...
...continued backing from Wash capital for a full decade...
...Some observers the arrival of the Cristiani government...
...1988...
...military adviser said, "It's a stupid name, and I wish it had never been adviser said, "It's a stupid name, and I wish it had never been invented...
...If we cannot win here, where can victory is not possible...
...1 make a large scale wave of repression very difficult...
...The actual details of credit structure and foreign protection actual details of credit structure and foreign protection will be up for grabs and various ARENA backers will will be up for grabs and various ARENA backers will have specific and contradictory interests at stake...
...At the same time, it has put even defensive posture...
...of civil defense forces, and so forth," the officer said...
...We need a change of military strategy in order to destabilize the terrorists," said Bustillo in May, "be destabilize the terrorists," said Bustillo in May, "because all our big units are doing is being worn away...
...When the U.S...
...In the final weeks of patronage to hold itself together...
...LedLed publicly by Ochoa, the efforts were advised behind publicly by Ochoa, the efforts were advised behind thethe scenes by Rodriguez Porth, who was the central scenes by Rodriguez Porth, who was the central figurefigure of the shadowy National Action Movement of the shadowy National Action Movement (MAN), which began publicly criticizing the U.S...
...Unionists, instead of dis police and paramilitary forces...
...The repression, which will certainly close off what little democratic space has been won, will likely off what little democratic space has been won, will likely be presented by the Salvadoran government and the be presented by the Salvadoran government and the State Department as a human rights improvement, a State Department as a human rights improvement, a modernization of the country's archaic legal system...
...1987...
...The country, which made more than S100 million from cotton exports in 1978, now has to import million from cotton exports in 1978, now has to import cotton to meet the demand of its own textile industry...
...The Tandona's problems lie on two axes...
...al., "American Military Policy in Small Wars: The Case of El Salvador," Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis/Perga Case of El Salvador," Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis/Perga mon,mon, 1988...
...Emilio Ponce listed the army's special plans for the Emilio Ponce listed the army's special plans for the electoral period: Operacion Caminante to protect the electoral period: Operacidn Caminante to protect the highways;highways...
...While publicly the military puts its strength at upwards of 55,000 troops, military puts its strength at upwards of 55,000 troops, rebelrebel leaders claim an actual figure of 3638,000.20 leaders claim an actual figure of 36 38,000.20 FMLN combatants are estimated to number six to seven FMLN combatants are estimated to number six to seven thousand...
...We will not discuss here all the various interpretations of what "low intensity conflict" really means...
...While the Left's power to veto within the enemy camp...
...in turn, even more delicate...
...The kind of intelligence the Armed Forces does ac The kind of intelligence the Armed Forces does acquire,quire, such as the presence of a guerrilla unit or com such as the presence of a guerrilla unit or commander in a particular town on a particular day, can be mander in a particular town on a particular day, can be taken advantage of by carefully defined special opera taken advantage of by carefully defined special operationstions forces in a much more cost effective way than forces in a much more cost effective way than through large scalethrough large scale mobilization...
...Much of the budget and manpower, though, still go Much of the budget and manpower, though, still go into large scale operations...
...Yet the war, by any measure, is the single toral platform...
...The The other dimension of the problem is military...
...Now, he suggested, urban special operations capability must be devel gested, urban special operations capability must be developed as well...
...1988) and Human Rights in El Salvador on the Eve of Elections, March 1989, also from Americas Watch...
...Authors' interview, March 1989...
...See "The Nerve Center "1 oped as well...
...Authors' interview, March 1985...
...One is The Tandona's problems lie on two axes...
...Estudio sobre Ia organizaciOn de Ia fuerza armada," 24...
...Villalobos, "Perspectiva de victoria...
...This was reportedly offered in mid May,mid May, but rejected by the PDC leadership...
...Thus there are not chy has remained roughly the same...
...Juan Hector Vidal at upper hand in the conflict...
...mobilization...
...inflicted 123 casualties...
...Zepeda...
...Air force of grisly murders and disappearances...
...See "A Job For intelligence and para military nuclei...
...pressure for serious negotiations between the two parties pressure for serious negotiations between the two parties is likely...
...Ibid...
...As proof he presented a pile at the appropriate moment...
...Part Two was published in the Springthe Spring 1989 issue of Foreign Policy...
...of the way previous officers were handling the war...
...The losses incurred of sabotage to truly traumatic levels...
Vol. 23 • July 1989 • No. 2
