Should the U.S. Sell Weapons to Friendly Arab States?
ZAKHEIM, DOV S.
Arms for the Arabs Should the U.S. Sell Weapons to Friendly Arab States? DOV S. ZAKHEIM Selling arms to America's Arab friends is not only in this country's best . interest, it is even...
...Needless to say, the United Kingdom was far less squeamish about providing its services for such construction anywhere in Saudi Arabia than the United States had been...
...America's ability to win the trust of the Arabs is a function of America's willingness to respond to their needs and demands...
...Fourth, Israel herself could hope at some future dale to sell selected arms systems to selected Arab slates...
...Japan is becoming a major military manufacturer...
...Argentina is racing to catch up to Brazil, and is seeking to impart to its weapon designers the operational lessons it learned during the disastrous Falklands War...
...The government of Israel should not be put in the awkward position of having to indicate whether it is prepared to live with any given sale—this is what almost happened in the case of Kuwait...
...The philosophy that Weinberger espoused, and that infuriated many of Israel's supporters remains—and will always remain—the philosophy that guides Pentagon policy: the United States, as a superpower, cannot rely on any one country to support its interests in the vast expanse known as the Middle East...
...In their most recent search for new equipment, the Saudis also hoped to construct new air bases to house their purchases...
...The only country that can attach such strings is the United States, which will offer Arab friends actual support in time of crisis...
...From the Saudi viewpoint, therefore, buying British was not really a comedown from buying American...
...Now, however, it permits its industry to sell systems overseas— including to the Middle East...
...Riyadh's rationale for its American preference extended beyond the raw data that compared the parameters of the two aircraft...
...Until 1980, Israel and her supporters looked primarily to Congress for support...
...By the end of the Reagan Administration's tenure, however, it was clear that in many respects the Pentagon had become the central focus of Israel's security, as well as economic, interests...
...As is the case in all sales to Sauch' Arabia, what was at issue was logistical and infrastructure support, as well as weapons acquisition...
...Moreover, the British have an excellent reputation for military construction, and continue to operate a fine network of air bases around the world, from Cyprus to the Falklands to Hong Kong...
...Similar reasons led Israel to seek to build the Lavi airplane—but on its own...
...Indeed, in the past the United States had specifically ruled out the stationing of American-made aircraft at Tabuk, the base closest to the Israeli border...
...The White House, whose incumbent was openly pro-Israel, was viewed as a friendly haven...
...Non-weapons sales have accounted for more than two-thirds of the value of U.S...
...Some sales to America's Arab friends simply must be allowed to take place without fuss or furor...
...They should not be undermined...
...Indeed, America's major presence in the Persian Gulf, and its close cooperation with the Saudis to prevent the Iranians from expanding the scope of their conflict with Iraq to the territories of other states, assured the Saudis of American intentions to protect the sovereignty of the vulnerable Gulf states...
...The British are likewise moving ahead into the next generation of aircraft with their participation in the European fighter (together with former partners Italy and Germany, and new partner Spain...
...It is the ground attack variant that most significantly enhances Saudi capabilities and poses the greatest threat to Israel...
...The Federal Republic of Germany, with an arms industry whose history is well known, has begun to relax its inhibitions about the sale of its products abroad...
...Moreover, the Saudis were seeking more than aircraft...
...Under Weinberger and then Frank Carlucci's stewardship, the Department of Defense increased the level of its purchases from Israel twenty-fold...
...Until recently, sales of U.S...
...The Saudis' recent contract to purchase the British Tornado ground attack aircraft, after encountering America's reluctance to sell them its comparable planes, is a startling development that will illustrate the foregoing observation...
...Israel's dealings with China—which not only has for years openly condemned Israeli policy but which has destabilized the Middle East with her sale of surface-to-surface systems to the Saudis—demonstrates that business can be business even among states that are formally estranged from each other...
...Clearly, that is no longer the case...
...Another factor argues in favor of reassessing the traditional opposition of Israel's Washington supporters to selling U.S...
...influence in the Arab world...
...Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have no such limitations...
...Under perestroika, however, free market economics seems to have affected Soviet marketing habits...
...Not a squawk of protest was heard from Tel Aviv (where the Defense Ministry is housed) or from Jerusalem when the deal was announced...
...arms to Arab countries...
...But both the State and Defense Departments were considered less than friendly...
...weapons to our friends in the Arab world...
...No such assurances could be expected from the British—or indeed the French—whose interest was solely in selling their wares, and not necessarily in protecting the sovereignty of those who purchased them...
...In the past, the Russians were reluctant to sell their top-flight systems to all but their closest friends...
...Briefly put, the Tornado enables the Saudis to strike at Israeli bases and cities with a far greater prospect of success than was ever the case in the past...
...For years, Israel and her supporters in Washington ignored or belittled the argument that the sale of European and/or other arms to the Arab states was a greater threat to Israel's security than a similar sale by the United States...
...aircraft...
...Surely it is time for a process of differentiation to be applied to the proposed sale of U.S...
...The exact magnitude of the overrun has never been revealed, however...
...The retort was always that the European systems—or Soviet systems, for that matter—were no match for U.S...
...Recent developments, however, require a change in strategy, or Israel may suffer dire consequences in the not-too-distant future...
...Recently, however, both Britain and France have significantly increased the quality of their products, so much so that the United States itself has become a major market for these two states...
...It funded Israel's $1.2-billion shipbuilding modernization program...
...DOV S. ZAKHEIM Selling arms to America's Arab friends is not only in this country's best . interest, it is even more important for r**^S Israel's security...
...In considering the ramifications of any change in Israel's opposition to arms sales to the Arabs, several specific considerations are relevant: First, not all Arab states pose the same political or military threat to Israel...
...Equally important, the absence of strings on those sales allows Arab states to position their systems wherever they wish (thus potentially conpen-sating for limitations on combat radius, for example), and to use those systems to their maximum efficiency...
...The Brazilians are quite willing to sell to anyone—Libya has been a major market— and their products, notably land forces equipment, are considered world-class...
...This truism never seems to have seeped into the consciousness of those in Washington who oppose arms sales on a knee-jerk basis...
...France and Britain also continue to support major developments in naval forces (the two countries are vying for the sale of nuclear powered submarines to Canada), missiles, tanks, personnel carriers, and other accoutrements of modern warfare...
...The United States has maintained relations with both parties of many disputes—indeed, it has been an ally of both Greece and Turkey, despite the historic enmity of these two countries...
...effort to police the Persian Gulf...
...Only the United States can attach strings to arms sales to Arab governments...
...But it is not a sufficient condition...
...The time has come for Israel's more zealous proponents in Washington to adjust their strategies to current reality...
...Costing more than $35 million per plane, this ground attack aircraft has defeated U.S...
...The Italian research and development establishment may be the most underrated in Europe...
...aircraft in some NATO competitions, and could spell disaster for Israel in future confrontations...
...Many Arab states recognize the special relationship between the United States and Israel, and they are not prepared to challenge it...
...Even the least sophisticated military observer could recognize that the sale posed no security threat to Israel, while its loss could have resulted in the virtual exclusion of the United States from the Gulf...
...The Gulf war made that clear...
...For example, it is widely recognized that the government of Israel was far less tense about the sale of American F-18 aircraft and Maverick-G missiles to Kuwait than were Israel's friends in Washington...
...fi...
...They became increasingly frustrated by congressional reluctance to sell them equipment even with a variety of strings attached to the sales...
...America's ties to the Arab world, are, in a word, an important asset for Israel...
...Moreover, they have demonstrated again and again that they are prepared to accept compromise packages because they appreciate that only the United States will come to their aid in time of trouble...
...systems that would otherwise have been sold to the Arabs...
...equipment to Israel's actual or potential enemies had come to a near standstill...
...Kuwait is not the only case in point, Oman has been a supporter of the Camp David agreement since it was signed...
...Second, Israel's security demands that there be "strings attached" to Western sales to the Arab world...
...Only the United States can exert some influence over these critical military areas to protect the regional balance—if it is able to sell its own weapons to the region...
...sales to the Saudis since 1970...
...products...
...Israel can't afford to drive Arab governments into the newly expanding world arms market What we are witnessing is the proliferation of high-quality arms industries worldwide...
...Nor should the government of Israel be blamed for blocking sales that it could have accepted if only its supporters in Washington had not been as strident...
...For the Saudis, relations with, and purchases from, the United States have meant an assurance of American support during a crisis...
...In the past it has allowed its partners to act as merchants for jointly produced systems (the Tornado, and the Franco-German Milan anti-tank system are two well-known examples...
...Despite the fact that the Tornado is therefore a natural candidate for the Saudi Arabian aircraft modernization program, the Saudis nevertheless would have preferred to acquire American F-15Es, the long-range ground attack version of the F-25 air superiority fighter...
...Bahrain has never played a leading anti-Israel role but is a a key American friend in the Persian Gulf...
...Despite study after study released by Israel's supporters in the United States arguing that Israel could play a critical supportive role in any U.S...
...On the contrary, they see that relationship as a key element in any overall Middle East settlement, particularly if they too have a close tie to Washington...
...Third, America's inability to sell arms to the Arabs hurts her ability to act as a go-between on Israel's behalf in ike Arab world...
...Tornado ground attack aircraft have won numerous NATO low-level attack competitions, often defeating the best of U.S...
...The Soviets are making their top-flight MIG-29s and SU-27s available on the world market, creating further problems for Israel's military planners, who are unaccustomed to facing the very best that the Soviet Union has to offer...
...The Tornado is a very expensive plane...
...Had the Saudis purchased American F-15Es instead of the Tornado, the United States would have attached restrictions on the use of the planes...
...It opened new American arms markets to Israel and agreed to treat Israel as a major non-NATO ally...
...The British elected to build both an air defense variant (dubbed ADV), essentially an aircraft that is designed to intercept incoming enemy planes, as well as the ground attack version that all three countries comThe Tornado, jointly-built by England, Italy and Germany, now makes up part of the Saudi Arabian Royal Air Force...
...currently it has restricted its arms sales, but the pressure to allow foreign sales is growing within Japanese industry...
...At the same time, however, the Pentagon has remained committed to its policy of selling arms to the Arab states...
...France continues to manufacture top quality aircraft such as the Mirage 2000, and is developing a plane for the 1990s whose prototype has been named the Rafale...
...The absence of these restrictions could well render non-U.S...
...Interestingly, Israelis themselves, including government officials of both parties, are far more sensitive to the nuances of individual Arab government positions than are Israel's supporters in Washington...
...Only Congress could be relied upon to force the hand of those two reluctant departments to cooperate as necessary with Israel...
...The British and French are no longer alone...
...It agreed to provide 80 percent of the funds required to develop the Arrow anti-tactical ballistic missile.* It concluded over 25 technical agreements with Israel, and codified all of these agreements into an all-embracing Memorandum of Understanding...
...Thoughtful American supporters of Israel should likewise recognize that such sales are not only in America's interest, but no less important, in Israel's interest as well...
...systems actually superior to the "degraded" U.S...
...Many Arab states—those that are the most likely American markets—recognize, accept, and even unofficially welcome Washington's unique relationship with Israel...
...It is high time Israel's usually sophisticated supporters in Washington realize this...
...If Israel needs the Pentagon, and the Pentagon needs the Arabs, the connection is obvious and the question must therefore be asked: How can Israel help the Pentagon while * See "Missiles in the Middle East—Will They Upset the Military Balance...
...it also offered the benefits of flexibility that were inherently unavailable in any purchase from the United States...
...China, ironically with the help of Israeli arms manufacturers, has now become a major factor in the Middle East market, providing among other systems, CSS-2 surface-to-surface missiles to Saudi Arabia...
...What Israel offers—technical expertise, training, hands-on experience—may be a necessary condition for American effectiveness in the Middle East...
...Its unit cost is estimated to exceed $35 million...
...Far less reluctant have been Latin American and Asian manufacturers...
...With Israel's economy becoming increasingly dependent upon the sale of military hardware and ancillary items, with the U.S...
...one day the Chinese could conceivably sell them to Syr^a and Iraq as well...
...By the mid-1980s, the situation had changed...
...To be sure, they sought to convince the Administration of the day of the Tightness of Israel's cause...
...America has acted as Israel's agent in a wide variety of contexts and countries over the past decade...
...So has France (once Israel's prime supplier of military weaponry...
...Italy, co-producer of the Tornado and of the European fighter, has a burgeoning defense industry that has sold systems to both Israel and the Arab world, as well as to Latin America and the Far East...
...A number of other cases, similar to the Saudi purchase, underscore a change in the context of American armaments sales to the Arab world that require a new approach by Israel's supporters to this long standing, controversial issue...
...October 1988...
...The United States has acquired the British-designed Harrier (with its Rolls Royce engine) for the Marine Corps, the French RITA mobile communications system for the Army, and the French Durandal runway busting munition for the Air Force, to name but a few prominent purchases in recent years...
...Ironically, it was the Reagan Administration's successful battle in Congress to sell AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) to Saudi Arabia in 1981 that, in large part, led to a virtual ban on such sales...
...the Pentagon has drawn the obvious conclusions: America needs the friendship of the anti-communist Arab states, and arms sales can enhance that friendship...
...The plane was delivered about two years behind schedule, and considerably above the initial estimated cost...
...This concept is not all that far-fetched...
...The multinational approach resulted from the recognition by all three countries that each could not afford to build a first-rate military aircraft on its own, and that none could afford to rely solely on U. S. industry for the supply of warplanes, for fear of destroying its own military research, development and industrial base...
...contingency in Southwest Asia, Israel actually provided minimal assistance to the U.S...
...Training, infrastructure, spare parts are all as important to military capability as weapons themselves...
...The potential consequences—for Israel—of driving Arab governments into the newly expanding world arms market of the late 1980s and the 1990s are frightening to contemplate...
...Thoughtful Israelis, both in and out of government, have begun to appreciate this development, and worry as well about the dire consequences of the loss of U.S...
...security assistance budget frozen this year at $1.8 billion, and with the cooperative programs with the Pentagon generally outside the purview—and pressure—of both Congress and the State Department, the Pentagon has become a key focus of Israeli interest in Washington...
...not hurting itself...
...Israel's arms industry is sufficiently flexible and subtle to be able to support the sale of useful systems to certain Arab states without necessarily threatening Israeli security to anything like the degree of the Chinese missiles (with which Israel appears not to have been involved in any way...
...Thus, German shipbuilders—Thyssen and HDV—have built submarines not only for Norway and Argentina, but also for Israel, and they could well build them for Saudi Arabia...
...The Pentagon strongly supports arms sales to the Arabs, and Israel needs the Pentagon more than ever...
...Britain of course has always had an established reputation as a quality arms manufacturer and merchant...
...Israel could furnish little...
...It is the product of a joint British, Italian and German effort...
...Other European quality manufacturers include Sweden and Switzerland, though both have generally been reluctant to sell systems to the Middle East...
...Israel simply cannot afford frequent recurrences of sales such as that of Tornados to Saudi Arabia without seriously risking a major shift in the regional military balance...
...Only through the valiant bipartisan efforts on the part of both the Administration and several pro-Israel Democratic congressmen was an arrangement fashioned at the eleventh hour that suited all interests and threatened none...
...It in fact supports American Strategic Defense Initiative activities, and has combined with Argentina, yet another new arms producer, to fashion light aircraft...
...bined to produce...
...Then, of course, there are the Soviets...
...The Pentagon remained suspect...
...Morocco has played an active role in fostering Israeli efforts to reach out to the Arabs...
...So too was the'State Department, where George Shultz, despite his Bechtel connections, quickly proved himself to be, in the parlance of Israel's supporters, "a friend...
...But the Saudis were not inextricably wedded to the United States...
...Casper Weinberger and his staff had led the Administration's successful effort to sell AWACS to the Saudis in 1981, and had opposed a variety of programs for cooperation with Israel, notably the Lavi airplane program...
...Anyone who knows the ways of Washington must concede that Israel's supporters have done a remarkable job...
...Other states likewise pose lesser threats to Israel than say, a Syria or a Libya...
Vol. 13 • November 1988 • No. 8
