Missiles in the Middle East-Will They Upset the Military Balance?
CARUS, W SETH
MISSILES IN THE MIDDLE EAST WILL THEY UPSET THE MILITARY BALANCE 1 W. SETH CARUS In June 1988, Israel and the United States agreed to develop jointly an anti-tactical ballistic missile system...
...Since a single launch vehicle can fire many missiles, the destruction of a few launchers would not eliminate the inventories of missiles...
...This agreement forbids the export of missiles with a range of more than 180 miles, as well as the technology needed to make such missiles...
...A direct descendant of the German V-2, it is the most widely available surface-to-surface missile in the Middle East...
...Thus, Israel could incapacitate the vital oil and industrial installations at the port of Yanbu, which are clearly within range of Israeli attack aircraft...
...Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis does not endorse SDI, but supports the Arrow on its own merits...
...The inaccuracy that detracts from their military effectiveness has important psychological benefits when used against civilians...
...Aircraft are even more costly, but can be used many times...
...We are developing with Israel an ATBM system—a derivative of SDI research—to protect that nation from ballistic missile attack...
...Soon, Israel may have to worry about new missiles being developed or acquired by countries like Iraq, Egypt and Libya...
...The Israeli military, and especially the air force, tends to oppose development of the Arrow...
...For that reason, countries without ballistic missiles have sought to obtain them, and those that already had them are seeking to strengthen their existing forces...
...However, this still pales in comparison with the strike potential of a large, well-equipped air force...
...Ballistic missiles are also more destructive than is generally realized...
...Should it prove impossible by some chance to defeat an enemy in a short period, missile attacks would be the least of Israel's worries...
...Because gas weapons can blanket a large area, even a missile as inaccurate as the Scud-B can effectively attack military or civilian targets with chemicals...
...Because it is impossible to defend against the missiles, they bring about a sense of powerlessness...
...during the 1980s...
...Israel can do to prevent such attacks, the simple reality is that those missiles pose no military threat to Israel...
...These steps will convince potential adversaries that missile attacks will fail and that resorting to such strikes will entail serious consequences for the attacker...
...Thus, there is no reason for alarmist reactions to the proliferation of ballistic missiles in the region...
...The Jericho is Israeli-designed and manufactured, and has been operational since the early 1970s...
...This did not solve Syria's problems, however, since it received only a small number of SS-21 s, and in any case they lacked the range to reach most of Israel...
...The United States and six of its allies have joined in the Missile Technology Control Regime...
...The use of ballistic missiles in the Iran-Iraq war has led other countries in the region to adopt such weapons...
...This is not the case with the Arrow, since if Israel does not develop an ATBM it is unlikely that it will be possible to obtain one from some other source...
...It was only because the fighting lasted so long that the Iraqis could fire a large number of missiles...
...These were costly mistakes...
...However, it is expensive to build reinforced concrete structures...
...Middle East Missile Forces Country Missile Number of Missile Launchers* Range (miles) Can Missile Reach Israel...
...The focus of this agreement is an Israeli-designed weapon, the Arrow, that will become one of the first operational examples of a whole new class of weapons designed to shoot down surface-to-surface missiles...
...Sometimes a single missile can kill or wound hundreds of people...
...One fruitful possibility is diplomatic initiatives...
...In 1983, the Soviets provided them with the SS-21, a new-generation missile with a range of 60 miles and an accuracy of under 100 yards...
...Resources invested in defenses will reduce Israel's ability to attack, thus weakening its military position...
...Certainly, the benefits to the Saudis would not offset the damage inflicted by Israeli retaliatory attacks on Saudi Arabia...
...Ballistic missiles are an ideal weapon for terrorizing civilian populations...
...It should also be kept in mind that it is expensive to build or replenish a stockpile since missiles cost in the neighborhood of $1 million each...
...Some Israelis also worry that the Arrow could become another Lavi...
...The ATBM agreement reflects a growing concern in Israel and the United States that tactical ballistic missiles are posing an increasingly serious military danger...
...Quite simply, the Syrians know that most of the planes they send against Israel will be shot down and that they probably will not destroy their targets...
...One hopeful sign is that the Soviets have responded with interest to a proposal at the recent Moscow summit that they join the agreement...
...Israel benefits less from these advantages in missile warfare, since Soviet missiles in Arab countries have been designed so that soldiers can fire them with little difficulty...
...I support the United States-Israel jointly funded program for the development of the Arrow anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) system...
...support of the ATBM project is evidenced by the $100 million funding that has been earmarked for the project For the United States, the ATBM is a necessary defense against short-range missiles aimed at Western Europe and South Korea...
...The simple reality is that the Saudis acquired the DF-3A missile from China to deter enemies from attacking them, not because they wanted some potent first-strike weapon...
...We must also work to reduce the dangerous proliferation of these missiles that has occurred in recent years," Dukakis continued...
...Weapons do not exist in a vacuum...
...Despite the potential political benefits of using their missiles against Israel, the risks are substantially greater...
...Too much emphasis on offensive capabilities can reduce Israel's ability to prevent enemy attacks...
...The first step in dealing with these missiles is to take the threat seriously, but without exaggerating the extent of the menace...
...One of the most advanced of these weapons is the Israeli Arrow missile, which could enter service during the early 1990s...
...Deterrence of missile attacks will be critical...
...By conservative count, more than 800 missiles have been launched at urban areas by the two countries during the past eight years...
...Bush endorsed the Arrow and SDI in a speech to the Mid-America Committee in Chicago on August 2,1988: "It is one thing to say you are committed to Israel's security, but in an age of ballistic missiles, if you are against defensive systems such as SDI, that slogan has little meaning We must cope with the reality that ballistic missiles have already spread too far—that for instance, Israel is already threatened by them...
...They can cause considerable damage when hitting densely populated urban areas...
...What is needed is a balanced approach that reconciles the competing demands of offensive and defensive systems...
...Currently, it could easily fly more than 1,000 attack missions a day...
...Now no country without a powerful missile force is considered a serious military power...
...Defending against missiles will not be easy...
...As long as it is possible to do this, there will be little military incentive to resort to missile attacks...
...it has been evident in Saudi policy towards Iran in recent years...
...The Arrow should be able to intercept any intermediate range ballistic missile likely to be fired at Israel...
...Dukakis criticized the Reagan administration for pushing "arms sale after arms sale through Congress, with little heed for the consequences to regional stability and the security of our allies...
...This was true in the early 1960s during the Saudi disputes with Egypt over North Yemen...
...These developments have forced the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to think seriously about the problems of protecting civilian and military targets from ballistic missile attack...
...Such threats should prevent Saudi Arabia and Syria from deliberately firing at Israeli cities, but may not keep them from attacking military targets...
...Thus, an FT 6 has a price tag of about S20 million, but will probably fly at least 100 missions before it is lost in action, It will also deliver its payload with considerably greater precision, and can be used in a wider variety of circumstances...
...The Scud is the most difficult missile to fire because of its complicated liquid fuel rocket motor...
...Some equipment storage sites are so large that it is impractical to completely fortify them...
...The Arrow should be able to intercept any short or intermediate range ballistic missile likely to be fired at Israel...
...Although Egypt and Syria fired small numbers of ballistic missiles at Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the war between Iran and Iraq has provided the main impetus for the growing interest in such weapons by countries in the Middle East...
...To get a long range, the Iraqi Al-Husayn missiles carried only 350 pounds of explosives...
...Certainly there is no reason for Israel to launch preemptive strikes against Saudi missile forces, as U.S...
...According to Kurdish and Iranian sources, as many as 5,000 people may have died when Iraqi aircraft dropped chemical agents on the Kurdish city of Halabja in northeastern Iraq last April...
...The Arrow itself is a highly maneuv-erable missile that flies at nine times the speed of sound...
...Israel's survival depends on its ability to bring a war to a quick end...
...To prevent strikes against civilians, it will be necessary to convince potential adversaries that the benefits of such attacks will be outweighed by the risks involved...
...The fact that Saudi Arabia can fire missiles at Israel does not mean that it will use them, just as the fact that the United States has missiles that can hit Israel does not imply that Israel should adopt defenses against a possible American attack...
...Dukakis told moment: "The Arrow is an appropriate and timely Israeli response to the grave threat that the spread of ballistic missiles poses to Israel's security...
...They did this to gain political benefits from participation in the fighting, without risking possible Israeli retaliation...
...Once the Lavi was canceled, however, there were substitute aircraft that could be bought instead...
...Yet on average only about half of Scud-B missiles will land within 1,000 yards of the aim point...
...About 34 feet long, the Scud is carried and fired from a wheeled vehicle...
...SDI is being designed to intercept long-range, or strategic, missiles by use of ground-based missiles and space-based lasers, while ATBM systems will defend against short-range, or tactical, missiles using ground-based missiles...
...Thus, the surviving launchers could be used to fire the missiles still remaining...
...The development of the Arrow has stirred controversy among Israeli military leaders, some of whom oppose it...
...4 > The Soviet-designed Scud-B missile, fired from Syria, could reach all of Israel except the southern Negev...
...If enough launchers are destroyed, this will prevent an enemy from firing its missiles, thus providing an effective defense...
...On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's acquisition of DF-3A ballistic missiles from China has had no impact on Israel's security...
...They are also highly demoralizing...
...Even less plausible is the idea that Saudi Arabia would put chemical warheads on the missiles...
...Although missiles can be highly destructive, properly used aircraft can be even more deadly...
...If equipment for reserve units can be destroyed or damaged at the storage sites, Israel's ability to mobilize its reserves could be undermined...
...To fire a Scud, fuel and an oxidizer are mixed together and ignited...
...Even though Saudi Arabia has played a military role in three Arab-Israeli wars (1948, 1967 and 1973), it always sent small expeditionary forces that fought from some other Arab country...
...But what would happen if Bush were president and SDI funds were cut by Congress...
...Since a typical missile might weigh more than three tons without fuel, and it is traveling at more than three times the speed of sound, the energy of the impact is enormous...
...It has a range of 40 miles, and is considered to be relatively inaccurate...
...On the other hand, the Chinese are less inclined to accept the regime...
...Although the regime will not stop the proliferation of missiles, it should slow down the rate at which they spread...
...Ballistic missiles have dangerous capabilities, but they also have significant failings...
...Syria's potential acquisition of accurate, long-range ballistic missiles in large quantities would upset the military balance and provide Damascus with a real first-strike capability...
...Saudi Arabia is a country with a great deal to lose, and its leaders have traditionally attempted to minimize potential risks from military actions...
...The joint U.S.-lsraeli anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) project, the Arrow, is currently part of Reagan's strategic defense initiative (SDI, also known as Star Wars...
...Thus, excessive focus on offensive systems prior to the 1973 war left Israel without anti-tank missiles for the infantry to protect themselves from tank attacks...
...These improvements are especially dangerous for a country like Israel...
...Typical is the Scud-B, a missile widely available in the Middle East...
...The advantages of ballistic missiles have led Syria to assign them a critical part in its military strategy...
...Less reasonable are some other claims made by Israeli air force officers...
...Until the Arrow is ready for use in the 1990s, Israel will have to rely on alternative defenses...
...Like the other surface-to-surface missiles, the FROG-7 is fired from a wheeled vehicle...
...For the past several years the Syrians have tried to obtain the Soviet SS-23, a highly accurate missile with a 300-mile range...
...In estimating missile capability a key factor is the number of missile launchers...
...The M-9, which is still under development in China, will be considerably more accurate than the Scud-B, but not in the same class as the SS-23...
...The Israeli military relies heavily on its air force to protect the country from attack...
...Accuracy (yards) Israel Lance 12 75 150-400 Jericho** Unknown 600 100 Syria FROG-7 24 40 Yes, northern areas 400 Scud-B*** 18 180 Yes, any area 1,000 SS-21 12 60 Yes, northern areas 100 Jordan None 0 Iraq FROG-7 30 40 No 400 Scud-B 20 180 No 1,000 SS-12 Unknown 500 Yes, any area 600 Al-Husayn Unknown 400 Yes, any area 2,500 Al-Abbas Unknown 550 Yes, any area Unknown Egypt Scud-B 9 180 Yes, any area 1,000 FROG-7 12 40 Yes, southern areas 400 Bader 2000 Under development 500 Yes, any area Unknown Sakr-80 Unknown 50 Yes, southern areas 400 Saudi Arabia DF-3A At least 50 1,200 Yes, any area 2,000 Iran Scud-B At least 3 180 No 1,000 Oghab Unknown 25 No Unknown IRAN-130 Unknown 75 No Unknown IRAN-160 Unknown 100 No Unknown Libya Scud-B 80 180 No 1,000 FROG-7 40 40 No 400 South Yemen Scud-B 6 180 No 1,000 FROG-7 12 40 No 400 Algeria FROG-7 20 40 No 400 Kuwait FROG-7 4 40 No 400 ** Israel is the only country in the Middle East that has nuclear technology, and its Jericho missile is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead...
...If a war lasts too long, the costs of fighting may turn even a military victory into a strategic defeat...
...The cost to Saudi Arabia of damage to those facilities would be immeasurable...
...All of the missiles in the Middle East, however, have the potential to carry nuclear and chemical warheads, with the exception of Iran's Oghab and the IRAN-130 and IRAN-160...
...According to a Bush campaign spokesperson, the vice president stands behind SDI "but we can't get into hypothetical situations" U.S...
...To protect military targets, it will be necessary to fortify them so that they can survive missile attacks with minimal damage...
...Missiles fly at speeds far greater than aircraft—as fast as three times the speed of sound, making them invulnerable to conventional air defense systems...
...The Iran-Iraq war has shown that ballistic missiles can be extraordinarily effective as terror weapons...
...Currently, ten countries in the Middle East have acquired ballistic missiles, and five of them have set up programs to devise systems of their own (see ' 'Middle East Missile Forces," p. 16...
...For now, ballistic missiles pose no real problem for Israel, but with the increase in range and accuracy of newly introduced missiles and the use of chemical warheads, the danger will increase in the future...
...Such an onslaught would be far more menacing than any attacks from the ballistic missiles...
...Ultimately, Israel will have to rely on an ATBM system like the Arrow to protect critical military installations...
...The combination of accuracy and lethality makes the newer missiles a much greater potential threat...
...The number of stockpiled missiles is always greater than the number of missile launchers and is difficult to estimate...
...The Iraqi Al-Husayn missiles require seven or eight minutes to travel the 350 miles from their launch sites to Tehran...
...However, the deficiencies of the ballistic missiles as weapons of war are fairly substantial...
...Nor can missiles be fired rapidly and in high quantities...
...No more than 11 were ever fired in a single day, and the daily average was less than four...
...This capability is particularly useful if a country like Syria wants to attack Israel...
...It is no coincidence that Saudi Arabia opened negotiations with the Chinese only after Iran obtained Scud-B missiles from Libya and started firing them at Iraqi cities...
...Saudi Arabia has a large area that it would have to defend, it has a large number of vulnerable targets of considerable strategic and economic importance, and probably could not protect itself from an Israeli retaliatory strike...
...They ensure that the missiles cannot be used to militarily defeat Israel...
...The only nation in the Middle East known to have SS-21 missiles is Syria, which is believed to have a dozen launchers...
...The challenges are great, since it is extremely difficult to defend against the missiles...
...By comparison, a modern fighter aircraft like the American F-16 can drop bombs within three yards of an intended target...
...If Israel acts wisely now, these missiles will pose only a limited danger...
...They travel much faster, and they can't be shot down...
...We must forcefully press the Soviet Union and China, the main suppliers of these missiles, to stop their ballistic missile sales...
...More significantly, Israeli threats of retaliatory air strikes of devastating proportions against high-value economic and political targets can make such attacks very costly...
...However, it is extremely difficult to locate and destroy mobile missile launchers of the types available to countries in the Middle East...
...Similarly, it is believed that the smaller number of missiles fired by Iran at Baghdad had a considerable impact on morale...
...There are no systems now in operation that can shoot down surface-to-surface missiles...
...To implement these plans, they have acquired from the Soviet Union at least 53 launchers for FROG-7, SS-21 and Scud-B missiles...
...During the 1982 war in Lebanon, about 35 percent of all Syrian planes that got involved in the fighting were shot down...
...While Iraq may have more than 50 launchers, it has been estimated that the number of missiles left after the Gulf War is between 300 and 800...
...A variety of military and political options will have to be pursued...
...Since no ATBM will provide complete coverage, these other defenses will remain important even after the Arrow enters service...
...Even though it is true that Saudi Arabia can fire these missiles at Israel, and even though there is little that The SS-21 represents a new generation of more accurate Soviet-developed missiles...
...This makes it unlikely that they would launch missile attacks of mainly symbolic value, since such strikes would be serious enough to provoke retaliation without hurting Israel enough to prevent a response...
...Moscow originally rejected the request...
...They claim that their aircraft can find and destroy the launchers from which missiles are fired...
...Will the next president back the Arrow...
...rather, the entire missile lands on the target...
...Even if the Saudis fire all 50 of their DF-3A missiles at Israel, they would cause relatively little military damage...
...In most types of modern warfare, Israel has far surpassed its enemies because of the superior technological skills of its military personnel...
...During the "War of the Cities" earlier this year, at least a quarter of the ten million people living in Tehran fled the city...
...Republican presidential candidate George Bush, a firm supporter of SDI, not surprisingly promotes continuation of the Arrow as a derivative of SDI...
...In other ways, however, Israel's qualitative edge becomes of decisive importance...
...It has a range of 180 miles...
...The relative disadvantages of missiles compared with aircraft becomes more evident when the small size of the warheads they carry are taken into account...
...Only in the last few years have countries around the world started to develop ATBM systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in flight...
...The Scud, like all ballistic missiles, is propelled by a powerful rocket motor only on the initial part of its flight, while it is climbing...
...Finally, the missiles are expensive, typically costing about SI million apiece, and can be used only once...
...Many observers believe that the Iraqi missile attacks had such a powerful political impact that they played a central role in forcing the Iranian government to accept a cease-fire...
...SDI and ATBM use different technology and oppose different kinds of warfare...
...Moreover, at present the Arrow has the support of the United States, so much so that the Department of Defense has agreed to fund 80 percent of its initial development...
...The overstated reaction in the United States provides a good example of how not to deal with missile proliferation...
...The defensive positions protecting Israel's frontiers were weak, because most Israeli military leaders denigrated fortifications...
...Significantly, the use of missiles has been escalating...
...By comparison, it takes modern attack aircraft, like the Israeli FT 6s, about 35 minutes to fly a comparable distance...
...Rather, they are tools that are used to accomplish the objectives of a country's political and military leadership...
...These disparaging comments are not intended to dismiss the threat posed by ballistic missiles, but rather to provide some perspective Missiles cannot be used to defeat Israel militarily...
...Hence, Israel will always retain some vulnerability to missile attack...
...Air force officers believe that the best defense against missiles is a powerful offense...
...Once it reaches a high altitude the rocket motor turns off and the force of gravity pulls the missile down to the earth...
...By comparison, the Israel Air Force flew more than 7,000 ground attack sorties during the 1973 war, or an average of about 300 per day...
...to understand what they can and cannot accomplish...
...A sense of random vulnerability is created, since people learn that there is little they can do that will reduce their chances of becoming a victim...
...The Lavi fighter, which was intended to be an Israeli designed and built aircraft, was canceled last year because of excessive costs...
...The refusal of the Soviets to provide the Syrians with SS-23 missiles has led them to look elsewhere for a similar system...
...Iran has at least 3 Scud-B launchers that have fired nearly 130 Scud-B missiles...
...The Saudis still must worry about Israeli reactions...
...Although the United States government expressed public concerns that Israel might attempt to attack Saudi Arabia's new missiles, it is highly unlikely that the IDF would do that...
...It would take Syrian aircraft at least 15 minutes to reach Israeli air bases in the southern Negev, but the Soviet-designed Scud-B missile could do the same in only six minutes...
...Until the Soviet Union and China agree to accept the regime, missiles will continue to be exported to the Middle East...
...They dislike investing in defensive systems, since the only way for Israel to bring a war to an end is by taking the offensive...
...At least 400 of them have been fired in the Iran-Iraq war, devastating cities and taking a high death toll...
...A typical missile carries no more than a ton of explosives...
...The largest portion of the ground forces are formed from reserve units that will be called up in an emergency...
...sources have postulated...
...Equally important, any unexpended fuel will also detonate, probably causing more destruction than the warhead...
...These sophisticated missiles are now in the hands of many nations not at peace with Israel, including countries like Syria, Libya, Iraq and Saudi Arabia...
...Most air forces consider losses of four percent to be unacceptable, and in 1973 the Israelis were horrified by losses of less than one percent...
...Since the Jericho was developed as part of Israel's nuclear program, the Israeli government officially denies its existence, and no figures are available for how many Jerichos have been produced or stockpiled...
...Since the Arabs are unlikely to be able to buy such a system elsewhere in the next decade, this will weigh in Israel's favor...
...This would require, in effect, a bullet capable of hitting another bullet that has already been fired...
...Fifty missiles with chemical warheads would cause relatively little damage to Israel...
...The missile is so inaccurate that it cannot hit military targets...
...Most American military experts doubt that it can be done, a view shared by some Israeli analysts as well...
...Missiles in the Middle East continued from page 19 combat aircraft...
...In the future, the quantity of missiles that Arab military forces will be able to deploy will increase, perhaps to as much as 100 or more missiles a day...
...Ballistic missiles are too inaccurate to reliably hit militarily important targets...
...Since it is unlikely that any Syrian aircraft could survive such a long trip through Israeli air defenses, the advantage of missiles is evident...
...Only if Israel attacks Saudi territory are the missiles likely to be used...
...The problem is not acute at the moment, since existing forces and strategies can deal with the threat...
...That agreement requires the Soviets to destroy their SS-23 missiles, and prohibits them from transferring them to other countries...
...Moreover, Israel will not give an opponent the luxury of leisurely firing missiles over the course of a seven-week war...
...Hence, it is important that Israel be able to end a war as fast as possible, and this requires powerful offensive forces...
...Unlike Iranian military, the IDF has the ability to end a war quickly because of its powerful offensive capabilities...
...Now it cannot supply the SS-23 except by violating the terms of the INF treaty signed last year with the United States...
...Given the uncertainties of diplomatic action, and the manifest failure of the world community to stop Iraq's use of either chemical weapons and ballistic missiles, Israel's primary responses to protect itself from missile attacks will have to be military...
...The Soviet Union has not exported chemical warheads for its missiles, but Syria is known to have developed on its own a warhead for the Scud-B that carries nerve gas...
...Should the Saudis decide to get seriously involved in a war with Israel, they will not confine their attacks to a few missile strikes of limited military value...
...and it has certainly guided its relations with Israel since 1948...
...Israel is legitimately concerned about the growing strength in number, accuracy and range of Syrian missile forces, with its potential for destabilizing the military balance...
...Israel's best responses to the proliferation of ballistic missiles are not simply knee-jerk reactions...
...The Syrians intend to use them against air bases, equipment storage sites for reserve units, air defense and radar sites, command posts and other militarily important installations...
...fired from Syria, it can reach all of Israel except the Southern Negev...
...Syrian efforts to enhance its chemical warfare capabilities come in the wake of massive use of gas weapons by Iraq in the Gulf War...
...MISSILES IN THE MIDDLE EAST WILL THEY UPSET THE MILITARY BALANCE 1 W. SETH CARUS In June 1988, Israel and the United States agreed to develop jointly an anti-tactical ballistic missile system (ATBM...
...The skills of Israel's people are critical factors when weighing the balance of power in the Middle East, particularly as war becomes more technologically sophisticated...
...They take only a few minutes to reach targets at vast distances...
...Soon after the Iraqis invaded Iran in 1980, they started firing ballistic missiles at Iranian cities near the border...
...As it happens, Israel has developed one of the world's best air defenses...
...Some carry even less...
...Newer missiles can also be fitted with cluster bomblets or even with guided submunitions...
...The missile would be part of a larger system consisting of radar, communications networks, and computerized controls...
...These characteristics make ballistic missiles an ideal weapon for terrorizing civilian populations...
...Syria would like to get missiles similar to the American Pershing II, which has an accuracy of 25 yards...
...This danger will grow as the accuracy and lethality of the attacking missiles increase...
...No Arab country has the ability to design a missile defense system...
...At least 500 were fired during the "War of Cities" fought between Iran and Iraq earlier this year...
...For this reason, the Syrians have made acquisition of accurate missiles a priority The FROG-7 was fired at Israel by Egypt and Syria in the 1973 war...
...This particular argument should be taken seriously...
...It is not just a warhead that hits...
...Existing air defense systems make it extremely difficult for aircraft to operate on the modern battlefield...
...fii...
...Iran began to retaliate in 1985, when it acquired missiles of its own...
...When carried to extremes, however, this concept can lead to policies that significantly weaken Israel...
...As these debates indicate, the challenges posed by ballistic missile forces have created new issues that Israel will have to cope with in the next years...
...Not only have the Iraqis employed a variety of chemical weapons against Iranian army troops, but they have used them to attack civilians...
...At the moment, however, the main focus has been on the missile forces acquired by Syria and Saudi Arabia...
...Most of Syria's ballistic missiles are inaccurate FROG-7s and Scud-Bs, which were not originally intended to be used in such roles...
...By comparison, the Israeli FT 6 fighters that destroyed Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981 carried two 2,000-pound bombs...
...Fired from a wheeled vehicle, the SS-21 can reach targets up to 60 miles away and will hit within 100 yards of its target...
...It has a range of 180 miles, and while normally it carries a one-ton warhead, it is also capable of carrying chemical warheads filled with nerve gas...
...Certainly the Syrians have recognized that they cannot rely on their air force to penetrate Israeli air space to attack strategic targets...
...Ballistic missiles have two main advantages over manned aircraft...
...The Chinese have offered to sell Syria their new M-9, a missile with a range of 375 miles...
...If the air bases can be knocked out of operation, even for short periods of times, Israel's ability to defend itself during the opening stages of a war could be jeopardized...
...So it must be asked, under what circumstances would Saudi Arabia fire ballistic missiles at Israel, and what would it hope to gain...
...Rather, they will commit their air force with its more than 250 continued on page 52 If SDI is Shot Down, Will the Arrow Fly...
...Civil defense measures, such as providing bomb shelters and chemical defense gear for the civilian population, can reduce the number of people likely to be killed in missile attacks...
...Equally disturbing are the efforts by Syria to provide its surface-to-surface missiles with a chemical warfare capability...
...Increased accuracy makes the newer missiles a much greater threat The Syrians have recognized that improved technologies are beginning to make possible ballistic missiles with the accuracy and lethality to threaten military targets...
...During the "War of the Cities" fought earlier this year between Iran and Iraq, the Iraqis fired 190 Al-Husayn missiles at Iranian cities over a 52-day period...
...For example, Syria has 54 missile launchers but experts can only guess at how many missiles it has...
...Syria is the only country known to have chemical warheads, which can be carried by its Scud-B missiles...
Vol. 13 • October 1988 • No. 7
