Democracy in Latin America

...The PRI has responded, creating the sense that it accepts the need for reform...

...Populism has a less well understood political dimension however: the "politics of antipolitics...

...3. The public has sweeping (and perhaps unfair) criteria for granting political legitimacy...

...It provides a façade of legitimacy to cronyism, clientilism, and corruption...

...Paraguay closed the cycle with its open and competitive elections in 1993...

...Election results also do not demonstrate public rejection of the "neoliberal" economic model...

...In Central America, the militaries returned to the barracks in El Salvador in 1984 and in Guatemala in 1986...

...This beguiling response can serve as a leitmotiv for how Latin Americans view their new democratic regimes...

...The first Latin American country to restore republican institutions was Ecuador, in 1979...

...Today Mexico's foreign debt—of which nothing is said anymore—is $158 billion...

...In Paraguay a wealthy businessman with a program of economic liberalization won the last election...

...As the Mexican intellectual, Jorge Castarieda, has said, there are three places in 38 • DISSENT Politics Abroad the world where the United States does not mention democracy: the oil-rich states of the Persian Gulf, China, and Mexico...

...In contemporary democracies political parties are the building blocks...

...In Bolivia the winner was the party that began the country's economic reforms...

...SPRING • 1997 • 39...

...Revealingly, Luis Somoza once said he greatly admired the PRI and wished that he had one...

...Much can be said about the state of democracy in Latin America, but here I will offer just nine ideas that help explain this cynicism and suggest what it might entail for the future of democracy in the region...

...I asked an Ecuadorian congressman, in the privacy of his office, how much a congressional vote was worth...

...Party affiliation is shed so as to enhance the bargaining power of individual members of Congress...

...In Guatemala's elections last year, in the departments of Huehuetenango and Quiche, where the population is overwhelmingly indigenous, 74 percent of eligible voters stayed home...

...There is statistical evidence that the percentage of poor people in Chile has declined because of robust economic growth, of an enviable 6 percent to 8 percent per year...

...What happens if capital dries up or if world trade contracts...

...Finally,a note on the country nearest home: before the wave of democracy in Latin America, Mexico did not look so bad: the military was nowhere to be seen, there were elections, and there was a periodic change of presidents...

...Political parties are left to politicos...

...1. A number of indicators suggest that both new and old democratic regimes are under stress, that their legitimacy is being questioned, and that 34 • DISSENT Politics Abroad their public support is increasingly fragile...

...In too many instances, the state remains inefficient and corrupt...

...The economic and cultural disparity between the capital and the remainder of the country introduces an odd wrinkle into the politics of representation...

...The public perception is that with the PRI and reform it is two steps forward, one step back...

...4. Political parties are the weakest link in Latin America's democracies...

...But now they don't read, not Marx, not Lenin, and not any substitutes...

...Also, the international financial community is always on guard...

...Mexico is not a democracy until the PRI loses an election, and there is no sign of that on the horizon...

...Celebrations greeted the emergence, in country after country, of constitutional rule, competitive party politics, and civilian supremacy...

...Instead, public disenchantment is focused on corruption and ineptitude in governing...

...But perhaps they are more transparent now...

...In impoverished Bolivia, for example, most Bolivians say that corruption is a more serious problem than unemployment...

...everything else is jungle and snakes...

...7. In the absence of ideas—and ofpassionsthere are only interests...

...Chile, 54 percent...

...But Mexican voters, cynical as they are about the PRI, are partly responsible for its hold on power...

...There also appears to be an increasing tendency— accepted by the public—to concentrate power in the executive, who rules by decrees instead of by laws...

...there are no reference points...

...The wealthiest state in Mexico, Nueva Leon (in the north), has a per-capita income ten times that of the poorest Mexican state, Chiapas (in the south...

...Latin America has always been characterized as being both more culturally homogenous and more radically inegalitarian than other parts of the world...

...With only limited exceptions, in Latin America they are not institutionalized, they are not stable, they do not have roots in society, they are not independent of ambitious leaders, and they are not democratic in their internal organization...

...In the last Chilean election, 90 percent of the votes went to candidates who accepted the reigning economic model...

...As can be expected with such a diverse group, there are many degrees of "success" with democracy...

...The foreign debt crisis began in 1982 when Mexico said it could not repay its $100 billion foreign debt...

...In fact, inequality is real enough, homogeneity less so...

...None of the parties have deep roots in society...

...Not surprisingly, the strongest party in Congress at any one time has never been able to SPRING • 1997 • 35 Politics Abroad represent anything close to a majority...

...The public make no such distinction...

...Yet the great fanfare and enthusiasm that marked the transition have given way to a more sober view of governance in the region, and, indeed, to increasing cynicism and apathy...

...There has been considerable "economic learning" by elites, including those of the private sector and governmental bureaucracies...

...he would settle for an honest government...

...Instead, the political danger to democracy in Latin America comes from a growing number of voters who either abstain from voting altogether or vote for antidemocratic candidates who offer "simple solutions" to complex problems...

...Finally, there are no socio-economic indicators, such as per-capita income, that predict political outcomes...

...They talk of the "Pinochet model," a "democracy of low intensity," and of a "façade of democracy...

...In 1989, Brazil finally broke free from a military regime that had begun in 1964...

...Dating the transition in Bolivia and in Honduras is more difficult, but in both countries 1985 seems to have been a pivotal year...

...They have responsibility for aggregating public preferences, formulating plans for governing, and fielding candidates...

...The military realizes that the international context has changed and that the pressures on anyone seeking to usurp power would be overwhelming...

...It is suggestive—and depressing, too—that no one reads anymore...

...There is an expression in financial SPRING • 1997...

...Even elites, fearful of economic populism, may acquiesce in a political leadership that resolves to govern...

...polling between 15 and 31 percent of the vote, with the norm about 20 percent...

...In any case, the soldiers have no inclination to govern...

...Commonly, capital cities in the region are home to between a fourth and a third of the country's population...

...In Costa Rica, the successful promotion of exports and the development of tourism has resulted in an unemployment rate of only 6 percent to 7 percent...

...Its new standing is a sign of how much things have changed...

...Certain generalizations, however, can be made for Latin America as a whole...

...This lack of political participation in the management of political parties, and in politics in general, is at odds with common ideas about the economy...

...A regionwide survey of public attitudes by the Spanish magazine Cambio 16 revealed that for the overwhelming majority the most serious problem in their countries is corruption...

...Since 1984, between fourteen and seventeen parties have competed in legislative elections, with at least ten always winning seats...

...Populists may come to power via democratic elections, but they govern in an authoritarian style justified by continual attacks on traditional political elites and established institutions...

...In Venezuela, there is an expression that is most revealing: "Caracas is Caracas...

...Perhaps the corollary is, "and Latin America gets pneumonia...

...In 1994, more than a fourth of the members of Congress claimed no party affiliation...

...Countries that appear more successful include Chile, Uruguay, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, and Costa Rica...

...In some countries, real percapita income fell by as much as 25 percent...

...Bolivia, for example, has a history of extreme political instability—characterized by military coups d'etat—yet today seems stable...

...In other instances, regional disparities are pronounced...

...Like so many others today in Latin America, ranking military officers are interested in making money...

...The 1980s in Latin America are dismissed as a "lost decade," in response to a continentwide economic recession of proportions not seen since the 1930s...

...For example, in El Salvador, the ruling party, ARENA, is threatened with fragmentation because of divisions between the agroexport elite, who founded the party but are not faring so well, and the financial-sector elite, who increasingly dominate the party...

...Why the declining support for democracy so soon after "dirty wars," "los desaparecidos," and incompetent economic management by befuddled generals...

...There is no correlation between those countries that embraced democracy "early" or "late" and the initial set of outcomes of that transition...

...And antiparty politics is antidemocratic...

...Much work still . needs to be done to improve the responsiveness and public accountability of Latin America's political parties...

...Also suggestive is the declining voter turnout in elections...

...Thus, the important question for Peru today is not how well or badly Fujimori has governed, but what will it be like to govern Peru after he leaves the stage...

...For her and her colleagues, one learns only from the experience of governing...

...These, of course, have always existed...

...As a member of Venezuela's Congress put it, "There is no debate because there are no alternatives...

...In many other countries, though, the "new" economic model has brought painful dislocations, such as the surge in unemployment in Argentina...

...A former guerrilla in El Salvador, now a member of the political party Partido DemOcrata, told me: "There is nothing to read...

...Peru, for example, was one of the first countries to return to civilian rule and its governance is most problematic...

...Since the end of military rule in Ecuador the country has had six elected presidents...

...Today, economic populism is not the threat it was in earlier decades...

...The 1982 economic crisis in Mexico stimulated efforts at political reform, as hasagain— the 1994 crisis...

...The abrupt transition from authoritarianism to democracy in the 1980s was not accompanied by a wholesale remaking of the bureaucracies that provide (or don't provide) all-important services to a needy public...

...37 Politics Abroad circles: When the U.S...

...It has just been a few years since authoritarian regimes—mostly militaryled— were replaced with popularly elected, civilian governments throughout the region...

...Simple solutions" are a populist mantra...

...There is a fear of change, of leaping into the unknown, perhaps from the historical memory of the costs of the Mexican Revolution, which was also a succession of bloody civil wars...

...In 1994 it took in $182 billion...

...And even in regimes that are essentially two-party systems, such as Honduras, there are no strong connections between society and party...

...It remains to be seen how ethnic, regional, and urban-rural divisions will play themselves out, but they do further complicate the aggregation of interests...

...In the meantime, Mexico is probably second only to Venezuela in corruption in Latin America—and suffers from innumerable violations of human rights...

...Politically, though, the decade was anything but "lost": the predominance of authoritarian rule in the 1960s and 1970s gave way to a wave of "democratization...

...Intellectuals often separate regime type from everyday public administration...

...These unequal gains—or losses, as the case may be—translate into political tensions...

...A similar attitude toward politics is lacking...

...There are many real problems, though, and not many indications that these problems are being addressed...

...Support was higher in Argentina, 71 percent, and Uruguay, 80 percent...

...A political leader bent on pursuing populist economic policies would quickly confront opposition from a daunting coalition...

...Another disturbing indicator is the lack of support offered to candidates of traditional political parties...

...Nonetheless, voters may be so frustrated with the traditional parties that they opt for exciting if dangerous leaders...

...For a number of years Latin America has had a very large capital inflow...

...The dominant attitude in the region is best captured by a Mexican intellectual who said he no longer cared about gov ernments of the right or the left...

...the loser was the candidate of the rest of the country...

...Brazil was one of the last countries to embark on democratic rule and it, too, is problematic...

...5. The reform of political parties is stymied by a lack of involvement on the part of many of the middle class, of the managers and professionals whose skills are sorely needed...

...But this kind of government inevitably contributes to the further weakening of democratic institutions, including political parties, legislatures, and the judiciary...

...Finally, many in the media and the academic community openly express doubts about the desirability of democracy...

...Since the transitions elsewhere, though, Mexico looks like what Mario Vargas Llosa labeled it, "the perfect dictatorship...

...But arguably, there is a more pronounced—and growing— break between the capital city and the rest of the country...

...36 • DISSENT Politics Abroad 8. In the fragile democracies of Latin America the political risk is not, as in decades past, of a return to military rule...

...And the military as an institution often owns and operates businesses, sometimes of an ominous kind, such as the cemetery run by the armed forces in Honduras...

...In some countries, such as Peru and Venezuela, important parties have all but collapsed...

...Alberto Fujimori in Peru is the best-known case...

...The world at large was impressed with images of long lines of poor peasants in countries like El Salvador, walking kilometers to exercise their right to vote...

...Indeed, even politicians have shallow roots in their own political parties...

...Alternatively, candidates with no political party behind them, and in some cases, with no political experience, have won elections...

...9. Are the democracies of Latin America hostage to economic trends and vulnerable to economic shocks...

...Populism in Latin America is an elastic concept, but it is most commonly associated with redistributive economic policies, usually financed in an unsustainable manner...

...Latin America is the only part of the world where capitals sometimes bear the same name as the country, as if they were one and the same...

...2. Public dissatisfaction cannot be directly traced to the economic model of the day, the "Washington consensus" for unfettered markets...

...These new regimes have survived...

...Despite all the speeches, proclamations, negotiations, legal reforms, and so on...

...Similarly, there is no easy correlation between the depth of earlier political conflict and present stability...

...Venezuela has a history of constitutional rule, but is floundering...

...Throughout the region there is a common fatalism about politics, as if all outcomes are foreordained...

...Legitimacy is accorded to governors not on the basis of how they acquired power but of what they do with it...

...Elections and a new president every six years no longer mask the fact that it is essentially a one-party state, the kingdom of the PM...

...One of the features of Ecuador's politics is what is called cambio de camiseta (change of jersey): candidates for positions in Congress are required to run for election under a party banner, but once elected they commonly change parties, or just proclaim themselves independents...

...in 1995 it took in $201 billion...

...6. Political participation is retarded in part by the lack of ideas, of conflicting paradigms on how best to organize state and society...

...Professionals understand that the economy needs constant scrutiny and calibration...

...What is happening...

...In Colombia abstention has now climbed to over 50 percent...

...Other countries, notably Brazil, also suffer from political fragmentation, with members of Congress changing parties at will...

...Latin America's democracies are not in danger of collapse right now...

...Resilient democracies can cope, but can fragile democracies...

...Many officers, throughout the region, have business interests on the side...

...Ecuador, 52 percent...

...It was followed by its neighbor Peru in 1980, Argentina in 1983, and Uruguay in 1984...

...In a poll conducted last year by BarOmetro Latinoamericano, only a small majority of those polled expressed a preference for democracy over authoritarianism: Brazil, 50 percent...

...Public opinion polls in individual countries and for the region as a whole demonstrate declining public confidence in democratic institutions, especially for legislatures and parties...

...Those on the left were always the most studious, the most inclined to read political theory...

...These new democracies joined the three countries where democracy is commonly said to be firmly established: Costa Rica, Colombia, and Venezuela...

...Two of the last countries to join the fashionable embracing of democracy, in 1990, were Chile and Nicaragua, countries with an experience of "socialism...

...it seems more like two steps forward, two steps back...

...This investment, along with healthy markets for the region's exports, has caused a spurt of economic growth and patched over many problems—including increased inequality...

...As a Guatemalan manager put it, "Los buenos no se meten" (Decent people do not get involved...

...In any case, the PRI need not worry about problems with the "colossus to the north...

...Much more likely, today, are forms of political populism a la Alberto Fujimori—antiparty politics...

...In Guatemala, for example, it can be argued that the winner of the last presidential election was the candidate of Guatemala City...

...Another, more nettlesome question: How dependent has Latin America become on a healthy world economy, and, in particular, on capital inflows...

...The goal of the PRI is that "things must change so nothing changes...

...And it is not clear how tired and cynical voters will react if further deterioration takes place or if the region is subjected to an economic shock...

...Indigenous populations are better organized and more independent today, especially in countries where they constitute a substantial part of the population...

...Seven percent of the population lost their lives and economic growth did not resume for twenty years...

...Shifts in economic policies bring sharp and sudden shifts in economic fortunes...

...In Venezuela, for example, the abstention rate jumped from 18 percent in the 1988 election to 36 percent in 1993...

...All have been from different political parties...

...There are no visible dangers to either the nation or their own prerogatives...

...Electoral competition has not been sufficient to end cronyism, indifference, and corruption...

...sneezes, Europe gets a cold...

...And there is scattered but persuasive evidence that economic liberalization and the development of new export commodities have exacerbated inequality...

...If it is not a vote of great importance, something like two jobs in the customs authority...

...Differing outcomes are a puzzle not easy to explain...

...On the other end of the continuum are Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Brazil, Honduras, and Nicaragua...

...The ethnic schism between indigenous peoples and those referred to as ladinos is pronounced...

...and Bolivia, 64 percent...

...Costa Rica has been a democracy since 1948, but a common bumper sticker suggests the challenge in Latin America for winners of elections: "Every time I hit a pothole, I think of the President...